DECISION-MAKING ON IMPLEMENTATION OF IPO UNDER TOPOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY

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1 ACTA UNIVERSITATIS AGRICULTURAE ET SILVICULTURAE MENDELIANAE BRUNENSIS Volume Number 1, DECISION-MAKING ON IMPLEMENTATION OF IPO UNDER TOPOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY Karel Doubravský 1, Tomáš Meluzín 2, Mirko Dohnal 2 1 Department of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Kolejní 2906/4, Brno, Czech Republic 2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Kolejní 2906/4, Brno, Czech Republic Abstract DOUBRAVSKÝ KAREL, MELUZÍN TOMÁŠ, DOHNAL MIRKO Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63(1): IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees. Keywords: IPO, decision-making, uncertainty, linear programming, fuzzy logic INTRODUCTION This article is an extension of the article (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). It is therefore highly desirable to study this paper first. All IPO decisions are inevitably based an inaccurate data, e.g. probabilities, penalties. These inaccuracies can be taken into consideration by the methods shown in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, the topology of a decision tree under study can be uncertain as well. To solve IPO decisions, taking into consideration the fact that a team of experts cannot agree of the structure / topology of the decision tree itself (Apostolakis, Lee, 1997), needs more flexible formal tool and cannot be solve just by a single tree reconciliation given in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). Statement of a Problem Decision tasks are usually represented by single root trees and sets of available III (input information items), e.g. probabilities, penalties etc. In the practical situations the full III set is either not available or some of its elements are prohibitively vague under realistic conditions, see e.g. (Danielson, Ekenberg, Larsson, 2007), (Nie, Zhang, Liu, 2009). Therefore a methodology is needed to quantify the missing set of III. This problem is described in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012) where there is considered strong analogy between a water flow through a one root tree system of pipes and the decision tree of the same topology. This analogy is based on the assumption The longer the path the less probable the path is, see e.g. (Dohnal, Vykydal, Kvapilik, 1992). Let us imagine a situation where a firm has incomplete information obtained from different experts about implementation of IPO. This can have two basic consequences. The first consequence may be the existence of one decision tree with different valuations of the same branches e.g. lotteries. The second one may be the existence of topologically different decision trees. It means that two or more decision trees must be used to solve the same decision problem. This problem is solved in the next section as the multi reconciliation. 193

2 194 Karel Doubravský, Tomáš Meluzín, Mirko Dohnal Multi Reconciliation The problems of reconciliation are very important and have been studied for more than 30 years, see e.g. (Watson, 1994). Let us suppose several experts are involved in decision making. Then we usually obtained several possible incomplete sets of probabilities (eq. (14) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)). M { ~ R 1, ~ R 2,, ~ R s }. (1) Each set of probabilities ~ R i is a part of a problem Ω i to generate the corresponding fuzzy set of linear equation (eq. (18) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)). That means the reconciliation can be solved by a fuzzy linear programming, see e.g. (Kikuchi, 2000), (Fedrizzi, Kacprzyk, Verdegay, 1991). The problem Ω i is represented by a set of linear equations which consists of a set of balance equations (eq. (10) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)) and a set of additional probabilities (eq. (17) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)). Ω i = (Ap) i = b i p i = ~ R i, i = 1, 2,, s. (2) There are s incomplete sets of probabilities, see (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). Therefore there are s problems Ω i, i = 1, 2,, s which must be solved. To simplify the problem, let us suppose that the problem Ω is a set of equations. It means that the following set of equations must be solved: Ω = (Ω 1 Ω 2 Ω s ), (3) j-th fuzzy equation p j = ~ R j (eq. (20) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)) of set of equations Ω i can be transformed into four linear inequalities (eq. (21) (24) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)), see (Tan, Briones, Culaba, 2007). The system of linear equation Ω i (eq. (18) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)) is over specified system of linear equation. This system of linear equation can be solved by method of linear programming, see (Huang, Moore, 1993). Just need to introduce an objective function Q i (eq. (26) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)). If Ω represents the well overestimated set of linear equations then this system can be solved by method of linear programming, see (Lai, Hwang, 1992), (Huang, Moore, 1993), with following objective function Q = w 1 Q 1 + w 2 Q w s Q s, (4) where w 1, w 2,, w s represent the weights assigned to each expert/decision maker. The reconciliation problem described in (eq. (18) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)) is simply extended as follows: min Q s. t. (Ap) 1 = b 1 p 1 = R ~ 1 (5). (Ap) s = b s p s = ~ R s Case Study The following factors are taken into consideration to simplify the IPO task: Macro-economic growth (increments of GDP); Investor s interest in the IPO; Size of the issue (number of issued shares multiplied by their emission rate). The case study decision-making tree is seen in Fig. 1. There are two types of nodes: lotteries circles and decision-making squares. A circle represents a decision which is not done by the decision maker. It could be e.g. a market conditions. Let us suppose that two different trees are presented by two experts, see Fig. 1 and Fig. 3. The reconciliation algorithm, described in (eq. (18) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)), is used for both trees. The results are presented in the following sub chapters. An attempt is made to integrate these two trees and perform the reconciliation as described by (5). The result is presented in the sub chapter Integrated estimates of both experts. Analysis of the Decision Tree Given in Fig. 1 (Expert I) The reconciliation algorithm used in this subchapter is fully described in (eq. (18), (21) (26) in I: Nodes Descriptions Node No. Fig. 1 Meaning Node No. Fig. 1 Meaning 1 Implement IPO? 15 Size of the IPO 2 STOP 16 Investor s interest 3 GDP 20 Investor s interest 4 STOP 24 Investor s interest 5 Size of the IPO 6 STOP 7 Investor s interest 11 Investor s interest

3 Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty 195 (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)). The decision tree in Fig. 1 is studied. The tree s nodes are characterised in Tab. I. To make the Fig. 1 easy to present identical squares are integrated into one square. The squares No. 8, 9 and 10 are presented as they are treated during the reconciliation procedure. However, the squares No , 17 19, 21 23, are graphically presented as one square but treated in the same way as squares It means that the lottery No. 11 has three outgoing branches equally as the lottery No. 7, Fig. 1. The Tab. II shows the inaccurately known probabilities and the profits for all terminals. From the Tab. II it is obvious, that only some branch probabilities of the corresponding lotteries No Decrease 10 5 Stagnation 11 12,13,14 Yes 1 3 Entry fee USD Increase 16 17,18, ,22, ,26,27 1: Decision-making tree IPO by first expert II: Profit and the known probabilities Branch Probability of the variant Profit (mil. USD) Branch Probability of the variant Profit (mil. USD) 3 4 unknown unknown about 0.5 unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown about unknown about unknown about unknown 10

4 196 Karel Doubravský, Tomáš Meluzín, Mirko Dohnal μ 1 0 a are known. The evaluation of the unknown probabilities is based on metaheuristics (3) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The known fuzzy probabilities are taken into consideration as triangular fuzzy numbers, see Fig. 2. b 2: Triangular fuzzy number III: Conversion of probabilities to fuzzy Branch Probability a b c a 3,5 = a 11,12 = a 11,13 = a 11,14 = c x Tab. III gives the full description of all fuzzy numbers; see Fig. 2 and Tab. II. The remaining probabilities are calculated on the basis of the topological resistance, balancing equations and the partial ignorance (eq. (7), (10), (15) in (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012)), see the following Tab. IV. The calculated expected profits for individual sub decisions are given in Tab. V. For example, the choice of the best branch from the following branches 5 6, 5 7 and 5 11 needs requires the evaluation of the following lotteries: 7 and 11. The expected value of the lottery 7 is simple as all the relevant probabilities are the same namely 0.333, see Tab. IV. The profits reached by the terminals No. 8, 9 and 10 are 30, 10 and 5, see Tab. 2. The values of all lotteries are given in Tab. V. The lottery 7 has the value and the lottery 11 has the value The terminal No. 6, see Fig. 1, has the profit, see Tab. II, equal to 0. Therefore the maximum value from terminal No. 7 is Tree Evaluation is done in the following steps: If the entry fee is 11 mil. USD, then the following are optimal decisions: 1) Implement the IPO in case of stagnation, or of GDP growth, see the branch 3 5, 3 15 Fig. 1. IV: The splitting ratios Branch Calculated Probability Branch Calculated Probability V: Expected lottery value Branch Expected lottery value (mil. USD) VI: Characterisation of Nodes Node No. Fig. 3 Meaning Node No. Fig. 3 Meaning 1 Implement the IPO? 11 Investor s interest 2 STOP 15 Size of the IPO 3 GDP 16 Investor s interest 4 STOP 20 Investor s interest 5 Size of the IPO 24 Investor s interest 6 STOP 7 STOP

5 Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty 197 VII: Profit and the specified probabilities Variant Probability of the branch Profit (mil. USD) Variant Probability of the branch Profit (mil. USD) 3 4 unknown unknown about 0.5 unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown about unknown about unknown about unknown unknown unknown unknown No Decrease ,13,14 Stagnation Yes 1 3 Entry fee USD Increase 16 17,18, ,22, ,26,27 3: Decision-making tree IPO by the second expert 2) In case of stagnation of GDP choose middle issue, see the branch 3 5 7, in the case of GDP growth choose a big issue, see the branch , Fig. 1. 3) Highest profit will be achieved in the case of great interest of investors in both variants. Expected value of profit is USD 7.03 mil. USD. Analysis of the Decision Tree Given in Fig. 3 (Expert II) Fig. 3 is the second studied decision tree, see Tab. VI. The only difference between two trees, see Fig. 1 and 3 is the branch 5 7. Tab. VII shows the profits of the individual variants of the known probabilities obtained from the second expert.

6 198 Karel Doubravský, Tomáš Meluzín, Mirko Dohnal VIII: Conversion of probabilities to fuzzy Branch Probability a b c a 3,5 = a 11,12 = a 11,13 = a 11,14 = Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012), see the previous subchapters. Using the formula (5) the integrated reconciliation problems are solve for pairs of weights No. 2 10, see Tab. XI. The resulting splitting fractions are given in Tab. XII. There are 26 branches in Tab. XII, see Fig. 1. However, the splitting ratios are the same for rows No. 4, The splitting ratios for branches 1 4 IX: The splitting ratios Branch Probability Branch Probability X: Expected lottery value Branch Expected lottery value (mil. USD) XI: Weights c w w The Tab. VIII shows the relevant entered probabilities obtained of second expert (expert II). The given/known probabilities are again quantified as fuzzy numbers; see Fig. 3, in Tab. VIII. The remaining probabilities are calculated on the basis of topological resistance, balancing equations and the partial ignorance, see Tab. IX. The resulting profits are, see Tab. X. Tree evaluation, see Fig. 3 If the entry fee is 11 million USD, then in the present case, it is recommended not to realise the IPO, since the expected value of the profit results is mil. USD. Integrated Estimates of Both Experts It is clear that an integrated reconciliation based on the complex formula (5) requires evaluations of some sort of weights w of both experts. It is fully understandable that such evaluation is very subjective. To minimise the relevant risks several weights are studied, see Tab. XI. The first pair of the weights indicates clearly that the second expert has zero weight, see Tab. XI. The reconciliation problems No. 1 and 11 can be solved using algorithm given in (Meluzín, and 6 8 are not the same. It is easy to identify that there are three subsets of the columns which have different values of the splitting ratios. The first column is unique. The columns 2 5 have the same splitting ratios and the remaining columns 6 11 represent the third set. The corresponding objective functions Q (5) are given in Tab. XIII. On the basis of these data sets, see Tab. XII, profits for individual variants are calculated. The results are given in Tab. XIV. Integrated Evaluation done in the following steps: If the entry fee is 11 million USD, then from these calculations is obvious that in the present case, it is recommended: 1) Implement the IPO in case of stagnation, or of GDP growth, see the branch 3 5, 3 15 Fig. 3. 2) In the case of stagnation of GDP choose middle issue, see the branch , in the case of GDP growth choose a big issue, see the branch , Fig. 3. 3) Highest profit will be achieved in the case of great interest of investors in both variants. Expected value of profit is USD mil. USD.

7 Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty 199 XII: The splitting ratios r Branch Probability XIII: Value of objective function (5) c Q XIV: Expected lottery value Variant Expected lottery value (mil. USD) CONCLUSION The paper solves probably the most difficult IPO problem related to uncertainties of decision making trees, namely topological uncertainties taking into consideration missing values of probabilities of some outcomes of lotteries etc. However, a risk aversion is not incorporated into the described decision making algorithm. It is a serious disadvantage of the presented algorithms. It is a well-known fact that if significant losses are possible then the evaluation of lotteries are not based on the expected values as it is done in this paper. An attempt will be made to take some risk aversions into consideration. However, it means that a nonlinear element will be considered. Simple common sense reasoning can easily discover that if the risk increases that the evaluation of lotteries is more and more pessimistic. It means that there is an unknown upper value which a decision maker is ready to risk irrespective of potential profits.

8 200 Karel Doubravský, Tomáš Meluzín, Mirko Dohnal The described algorithm can be used not just for IPO problems. Its spectrum of different decision tasks is relatively broad ranging from e.g. ecological aspects of investments to complex engineering/ economics/social tasks. Acknowledgement This paper was supported by grant FP-S The Application of ICT and Mathematical Methods in Business Management of the Internal Grant Agency at Brno University of Technology. The paper is supported by the Czech Science Foundation. Name of the Project: IPO Strategy Specific Approaches in the CEE Region. Registration No S. REFERENCES APOSTOLAKIS, G. and LEE, Y. T Methods for the estimation of confidence bounds for the topevent unavailability of decision trees. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 41(3): DANIELSON, M., EKENBERG, L. and LARSSON, A Distribution of expected utility in decision trees. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 46(2): DOHNAL, M., VYKYDAL, J. and KVAPILIK, M Practical uncertainty assessment of reasoning paths (fault trees) under total uncertainty ignorance. International Journal of Loss Prevention, 5(2): FEDRIZZI, M., KACPRZYK, J. and VERDEGAY, J. L A survey of fuzzy optimization and mathematical programming. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 368: HUANG, G. and DAN MOORE, R Grey linear programming, its solving approach, and its application. International Journal of Systems Science, 24(1): KIKUCHI, S. A Method To Defuzzify The Fuzzy Number: Transportation Problem Application. Fuzzy Sets And Systems, 116(1): 3 9. LAI, Y. J. and HWANG, C. I Fuzzy Mathematical Programming: Methods and Applications. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. MELUZÍN, T., DOUBRAVSKÝ, K. and DOHNAL, M Decision-Making on IPO Implementation under Conditions of Uncertainty. Sborník vědeckých prací University Pardubice, 18(24): NIE, G., ZHANG, L., LIU, Y. et al Decision analysis of data mining project based on Bayesian risk. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3, Part 1): TAN, R. R., BRIONES, L. M. A. and CULABA, A. B Fuzzy data reconciliation in reacting and non-reacting process data for life cycle inventory analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15(10): WATSON, S. R The meaning of probability in probabilistic safety analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 45(3): Contact information Karel Doubravský: doubravsky@fbm.vutbr.cz Tomáš Meluzín: meluzin@fbm.vutbr.cz Mirko Dohnal: dohnal@fbm.vutbr.cz