AEO 2007 Projections John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 EFG 2007 Meeting 1
Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1980-2030 billion kilowatthours 2,000 Commercial Residential 1,500 1,000 Industrial Res 1.3%/yr, Com 2.0%/yr 500 Indy 0.6%/yr History Projections 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 2
1.2 Residential Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, 1990-2030 index, 1990=1 1.0 0.8 2006 Technology Reference High Technology 0.6 0.4 0.2 History Projections 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 3
Residential Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030 2.00 1.75 1.50 index 1980 = 1.0 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2006 Technology AEO 2007 Reference High Technology EFG 2007 Meeting 4
7 6 Residential Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2005, 2015, and 2030 quadrillion Btu 2005 2015 2030 5 4 3 2 1 0 Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels EFG 2007 Meeting 5
Efficiency Indicators for Selected Residential Appliances, 2005 and 2030 2.0 index, 2005 stock efficiency=1 2030 Stock, Best Available Technology Case 1.5 2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case 1.0 2005 Stock 0.5 0.0 Natural Gas Furnaces Central Air Conditioners Refrigerators New Building Shell Efficiency EFG 2007 Meeting 6
1.5 Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030 index, 1980=1 2006 Technology High Technology 1.0 Reference 0.5 History Projections 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 7
Commercial Delivered Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 index 1980 = 1.0 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2006 Technology AEO 2007 Reference High Technology EFG 2007 Meeting 8
7 6 5 Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel,2005, 2015, and 2030 quadrillion Btu 2005 2015 2030 4 3 2 1 0 Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels EFG 2007 Meeting 9
Efficiency Indicators for Selected Commercial Energy End Users, 2005 and 2030 2.0 index, 2005 stock efficiency=1 2030 Stock, Best Available Technology Case 2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case 1.6 2005 Stock 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 Natural Gas Heating Electric Cooling Lighting Refrigeration EFG 2007 Meeting 10
Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices, 1970-2030 12 2005 cents per kilowatthour 10 8 6 Nominal Cents 13.0 4 1.7 2 1970 2030 History Projections 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 11
What s New With Small End Uses John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Residential End Use Services Heating Cooling Water Heating Refrigeration Freezers Cooking Clothes Drying Clothes Washing Coffee Makers Handheld Rechargeables Lighting Dishwashers Televisions PCs Furnace Fans Spas Security Systems Home Audio Microwaves Ceiling Fans EFG 2007 Meeting 13
Commercial End Use Services Heating Cooling Water Heating Ventilation Refrigeration Cooking Lighting Office Equipment (PCs) Office Equipment (non-pcs) Other EFG 2007 Meeting 14
Commercial End Use Services within Other Electricity Coffee Makers Distribution Transformers Non-road Electric Vehicles Medical Imaging Elevators & Escalators Municipal Water Services Miscellaneous Services Combined Heat and Power Natural Gas Miscellaneous Services Distillate Fuel Oil Combined Heat and Power Miscellaneous Services EFG 2007 Meeting 15
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Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Residential Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kwh) Coffee Makers Home Audio Ceiling Fans Microwave Ovens Security Systems Spas Set-top Boxes Color TVs DVDs/VCRs Electricity Use Hand-held Rechargeable Devices Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied Other Miscellaneous Uses Total Miscellaneous Total Residential Sector Electricity Use 2005 151.7 232.5 384.2 1,364.8 188.9 325.2 514.1 1,591.2 222.7 432.7 655.4 1,896.5 EFG 2007 Meeting 20 4.0 11.8 16.8 14.3 1.9 8.3 17.1 52.1 9.8 15.6 2015 4.7 12.6 20.1 16.3 1.8 9.6 30.0 72.9 9.0 12.0 2030 5.5 14.0 23.5 19.0 2.4 12.7 32.7 92.5 10.6 9.8
Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Commercial Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kwh) Coffee Makers X-ray Machines Electricity Use Distribution Transformers Non-road Electric Vehicles Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) Computed Tomography (CT) Scanners Elevators and Escalators (separate in report) Water Supply: Distribution Water Supply: Purification Wastewater Treatment Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied Other Miscellaneous Uses Total Miscellaneous Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use 2005 137.4 229.5 366.9 1,266.7 147.2 357.9 505.1 1,548.2 166.8 601.6 2,061.6 EFG 2007 Meeting 21 2.7 54.5 4.0 0.6 0.9 4.0 5.1 40.0 1.1 24.5 2015 3.0 54.6 5.1 1.9 1.8 6.8 5.5 42.0 1.2 25.3 2030 3.5 54.9 7.1 4.5 2.8 12.0 6.5 1.0 47.0 1.3 27.2
Electricity Use and Market Share for Televisions by Type, 2005 and 2015 Television Type Screen Size (inches) Active Power Draw (watts) Market Share (Percent) 2005 2015 Analog <40 86 69 10 >40 156 16 2 Digital, <40 96 <1 34 Standard Definition >40 166 <1 <1 Digital, <40 150 8 34 Enhanced or High Definition >40 234 8 19 EFG 2007 Meeting 22
Saturation Forecasts John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Electric Space Heating Saturation 65% 60% 55% 50% UEC: 2005 2651 kwh 2030 2389 kwh 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% UEC: 2005 3339 kwh 2030 2925 kwh 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 24
100% Central AC and Heat Pump Saturation 95% 90% 85% 80% UEC: 2005 3717 kwh 2030 3184 kwh 75% 70% 65% 60% UEC: 2005 2982 kwh 2030 2321 kwh 55% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 25
25% Room Air Conditioner Saturation 23% 20% 18% UEC: 2005 1026 kwh 2030 781 kwh 15% 13% 10% 8% UEC: 2005 1399 kwh 2030 1240 kwh 5% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 26
2.75 Ceiling Fans per Household 2.50 UEC: 2005 135 kwh 2030 118 kwh 2.25 2.00 UEC: 2005 89 kwh 2030 75 kwh 1.75 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 27
6.00 TVs and Set-Top Boxes per Household 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00 UEC: 2005 157 kwh 2030 176 kwh 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 28
0.90 Electric Cooking Saturation 0.80 UEC: 2005 470 kwh 2030 469 kwh 0.70 0.60 UEC: 2005 448 kwh 2030 450 kwh 0.50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 29
Microwave Oven Saturation 100% 99% 98% 97% UEC: 2005 132 kwh 2030 132 kwh 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 30
0.66 Coffee Maker Saturation 0.64 0.62 0.60 UEC: 2005 57 kwh 2030 62 kwh 0.58 0.56 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 31
1.20 Refrigerators per Household 1.18 1.16 UEC: 2005 862 kwh 2030 657 kwh 1.14 1.12 UEC: 2005 856 kwh 2030 659 kwh 1.10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 32
35% Freezer Saturation 33% UEC: 2005 1012 kwh 2030 845 kwh 31% 29% 27% UEC: 2005 1040 kwh 2030 856 kwh 25% 23% 21% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 33
75% Dishwasher Saturation 70% 65% 60% 55% UEC: 2005 116 kwh 2030 106 kwh 50% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 34
90% Clothes Washer Saturation 85% UEC: 2005 111 kwh 2030 69 kwh 80% 75% 70% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 35
85% Electric Clothes Dryer Saturation 80% 75% 70% UEC: 2005 1045 kwh 2030 928 kwh 65% 60% UEC: 2005 1093 kwh 2030 967 kwh 55% 50% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 36
75% Electric Water Heater Saturation 70% 65% 60% UEC: 2005 2569 kwh 2030 2119 kwh 55% 50% 45% 40% UEC: 2005 2531 kwh 2030 2113 kwh 35% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 37
100% Personal Computer Saturation 95% 90% UEC: 2005 253 kwh 2030 464 kwh 85% 80% 75% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 38
60 Lights per Household UEC: 2005 655 kwh 2030 712 kwh 55 50 UEC: 2005 636 kwh 2030 680 kwh 45 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 39
Home Audio Saturation 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% UEC: 2005 120 kwh 2030 110 kwh 83% 82% 81% 80% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 40
50% Home Security System Saturation 45% 40% 35% UEC: 2005 75 kwh 2030 44 kwh 30% 25% 20% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 41
5% Portable Electric Spa (Hot Tub) Saturation 4% 3% 2% UEC: 2005 2525 kwh 2030 2375 kwh 1% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 42
A Change in the Weather Changing HDD/CDD Normals John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 EFG 2007 Meeting 43
AEO 2007 Reference Case Normal Based on 1977-2006 Average 2001-2006 NOAA Data Adjusted for State Population Weights Post-2000 Census Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Change Over Projection Period Based on State Population Shifts (2007-2030) Cooling Degree-Days Increase 8.3 percent Heating Degree-Days Decrease 4.3 percent EFG 2007 Meeting 44
Weather Scenarios Scenario 1: 10 Year Rolling Average Cooling Degree-Days Increase 5% in 2030 Heating Degree-Days Decrease 5% in 2030 Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.2% in 2030 Carbon Emissions Increase 0.2% in 2030 Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030 Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 0.5% in 2030 Cooling Energy Increases 5.2% in 2030 Heating Energy Decreases 3.8% in 2030 Total Energy Expenditures Decrease <1% in 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 45
Weather Scenarios - Continued Scenario 2: 1992-2006 Trendline Roughly Similar to ORNL 3 degree increase by 2025 scenario Cooling Degree-Days Increase 30% in 2030 Heating Degree-Days Decrease 21% in 2030 Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030 Carbon Emissions Unchanged in 2030 Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.7% in 2030 Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 1.1% in 2030 Cooling Energy Increases 29.6% in 2030 Heating Energy Decreases 14.2% in 2030 Total Energy Expenditures Increase <1% in 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 46
Cooling Degree Days 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CDD-30 YEAR (AEO) CDD-10 YEAR ROLL CDD-TREND 1992-2006 EFG 2007 Meeting 47
Heating Degree Days 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 HDD-30 YEAR (AEO) HDD-10 YEAR ROLL HDD-TREND 1992-2006 EFG 2007 Meeting 48
Change in Energy Consumption, 2030 (quadrillion Btu) Scenario 1: 10-Year Moving Average 0.30 0.22 0.20 0.13 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.03-0.10-0.03-0.20-0.30-0.22 Buildings -0.23-0.26 Electric Generators Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total EFG 2007 Meeting 49
Change in Energy, 2030 (quadrillion Btu) Scenario 2: 1992-2006 Trendline 0.80 0.60 0.66 0.57 0.40 0.20 0.00-0.20-0.40-0.60-0.14 0.29 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.03-0.26-0.80-1.00-0.82 Buildings -0.73 Electric Generators Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total EFG 2007 Meeting 50
Electricity Sales in Alternative Warming Scenarios (billion kilowatthours) 6,000 5,000 reference 30-year rolling 10-year trend 1992-2006 Warming impact on electricity sales through 2030 is small 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 51
2030 Load Curve in Alternative Warming Scenarios (gigawatts) 1,200 trend 1992-2006 reference 30 year rolling 10-year 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 Higher Summer Shift from 30-year to 10-year rolling CDD and HDD averages has little impact on load curves. Only extreme shift to 1992 (near minimum CDDs in last 15 years) to 2006 (near maximum in last 15 years) trend leads to strong growth in peak demand. 600 Lower Winter 500 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 EFG 2007 Meeting 52
Summary Warming Scenarios Decrease Overall Energy Consumption Increases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Power Sector More Than Offset by Decreases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Buildings Sector Greater warming leads to higher summer loads, lower winter loads and greater dependence on natural gas simple combustion turbines and combined cycle plants Carbon Emissions Not Affected Much Natural Gas Prices Not Affected Much Total Energy Expenditures Not Affected Much EFG 2007 Meeting 53
2005 Max and Min Load Days, PJM-E 70,000 60,000 27-Jul 30-May Megawatts 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Source: www.pjm.com Hours of the Day EFG 2007 Meeting 54