Global growth prospects Percent 6 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Recent developments Global growth was projected at 3.0 and 2.9 percent in 2019 and 2020 (June 2018 edition of World Bank s Global Economic Prospects.) Early indications reinforce our view of decelerating activity in 2019 and 2020 (the next edition of Global Economic Prospects will be published in January 2019). Reasons for decelerating activity include: Tightening of monetary policy in some advanced economies. Rapid deterioration of growth prospects in some emerging markets. Growth in some advanced economies remains above potential, but likely to slow because of the policy normalization. Rising trade tensions. Source: World Bank Notes: F denotes forecast as of June 2018.
Commodity price indexes Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Post-recession peak 2011:Q1 Energy Post-recession trough 2016:Q1 120 90 Agriculture Metals 60 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: World Bank Note: Last observation is August 2018.
Oil prices US$/bbl, deflated by U.S. CPI (Jan 2017 terms) 150 120 90 Two price cycles after WWII 1972 to 1986: A supply-driven cycle associated with oil supply disruption and major downturn in the global economy. High prices induced production from unconventional sources, including Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, and North Sea. OPEC withdrew in 1986 and reengaged later. 2003 to 2014: Mostly a demand-driven cycle with no disruption in the global economy (during the oil price spike) or a major boost to the global economy (during the oil price collapse). High prices induced production from unconventional sources, including US shale, Canadian oil sands, and biofuels. OPEC withdrew in 2014 and reengaged in 2017. 60 1972-2018 average: $56/bbl 30 0 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Source: World Bank Note: World Bank average. Last observation is August 2018.
Two oil price mega-cycles since 1970 US$/bbl, deflated by U.S. CPI (Jan 2017 terms) 150 Index 50 120 25 90 0 60 30-25 0 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Source: World Bank Note: The cycles are based on a frequency domain model estimation. -50
Oil production in Iran and Venezuela mb/d 4.0 3.5 3.0 Iran 2.5 2.0 Venezuela 1.5 1.0 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Source: International Energy Agency Notes: Last observation is July 2018.
History of conflict-driven oil supply reductions -0.9 Nov 2011 Oct 2012 Sanctions on Iran -1.5 Feb Oct 2011 Libyan civil war -2.3 Mar Dec 2003 Iraq war -4.3 Aug 1990 Jan 1991 Kuwait invasion -4.1 Oct 1980 Jan 1981 Iran-Iraq war -5.6 Nov 1978 Apr 1979 Iranian revolution -4.3 Oct 1973 Mar 1974 Arab oil embargo -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 mb/d Source: International Energy Agency and World Bank
mb/d 60 Oil consumption: History and prospects as envisaged in 2005 OECD, actual Non-OECD, actual OECD, projected in 2005 Non-OECD, projected in 2005 50 40 30 20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: International Energy Agency and World Bank. Note: The projection was taken from the 2005 IEA World Energy Outlook. The 2018 actual is estimate as of August 2018.
Consumption against income in per capita terms Oil Natural gas tons of oil per capita 4 tons of oil equivalent per capita 2.0 3 1.5 2 1.0 1 EM7 ex China China 0.5 EM7 ex China China G7 South Korea G7 South Korea 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 0.0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita GDP per capita Source: BP Statistical Review and World Bank. Note: Consumption per capita vs. GDP per capita (1965-2016).
Consumption of commodities in India and China China India Crude oil 3.7 12.5 Crude oil 4.4 1.9 Coal 24.8 50.5 Coal 5.2 10.5 Iron ore 8.6 49.4 Iron ore 5.4 1.9 Base metals 5.7 50.4 Base metals 3.0 1.8 Grains 21.8 22.6 Grains 9.7 9.9 Edible oils 11.3 22.2 Edible oils 9.3 13.5 Population GDP 2.4 12.0 18.7 21.4 2014-16 1990-92 Population GDP 3.0 1.2 17.8 16.5 2014-16 1990-92 - 15 30 45 60 Share of world total (percent) - 15 30 45 60 Share of world total (percent) Source: World Bank, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Oil price forecasts 90 80 70 60 50 US$/bbl Median consensus (Brent) World Bank (average of Brent, Dubai, and WTI) 2018 2019 2020 Oil price outlook Oil prices (average of Brent, Dubai, and WTI) were expected to average $70/bbl in 2018 and $69/bbl in the next two years (as of June 2018) left chart. These projections which were the equivalent of about $3/bbl below consensus stand. Elevated upside risks due to rapid deterioration in Venezuela and faster-than-expected reductions of exports from Iran will be partially offset lower growth in emerging markets and developing economies and increase in US shale production. We project oil prices to average $70/bbl in 2030 (nominal terms) or $59/bbl (deflated by manufacturing prices, 2010 terms). Technological improvements, both on the productionand (most importantly) consumption-side underpin the downward (real) price path. In some respects, this path mimics the relatively stable prices during 1986-2004, which were preceded and followed by the two (similar) price cycles. Source: Consensus Economics (August 2018) and World Bank (June 2018)