October. 2015
PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY MAJOR CHALLENGES Coal in China China is using MTO/MTP technology to manufacture olefins from its low-value coal reserves The European position Petrochemical production is under impact of ethane from US shale gas and fluctuation in oil price. Middle East Future LNG export competition with USA and geopolitical issues and area challenges. North America; Shale gas Investment in new ethane crackers in North America will lead to exports of competitive ethylene derivatives 2
PROVEN OIL AND GAS RESERVES Oil; Proved reserves (End of 2013) Natural Gas; Proved Reserves (End of 2013) 1688 Thousand million barrels 185.7 Trillion Cubic Meters Saudi Arabia 16% Kuwait 6% United Arab Emirates 6% Iraq 9% Asia Pacific 3% Africa 8% Iran 10% Other World 1% North America 14% Venezuela 19% Russian Federation 6% Kazakhstan 2% Asia Pacific 8% Africa 8% Europe & Eurasia 14% S. & Cent. America 4% Saudi Arabia 4% Other World 9% Qatar 13% US 5% Russian Federation 17% Iran 18% Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 3
(quadrillion Btu) WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL TYPE, 1990-2040 4 Source: EIA - International Energy Outlook 2013
Million Tons 70 IRAN PETROCHEMICAL OUTPUT CAPACITY GROWTH 60 50 44.0 49.5 51.1 54.5 57.1 60.0 40 38.1 30 29.2 20 18.2 20.4 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5
Million Tons IRAN PETROCHEMICAL EXPORT AND DOMESTIC DEMAND 20 17.9 18.2 16 12 8 4 5.2 4.8 5.2 4.9 6 9.5 6.1 6.4 12.3 14.2 7.6 7.9 10.5 12 15.8 14.5 13.3 13 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Export Domestic Demand 6
PETROCHEMICAL DEVELOPMENT ZONES Caspian Sea Tehran Petrochemical Special Economic Zone Sarakhs North Pars Pars Special Economic - Energy Zone Iranshahr Kish Qeshm Lavan Jask Chabahar Special Economic Zone 7
PARS SPECIAL ECONOMIC/ENERGY ZONE Assaluyeh 8
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Million Tons CAPACITY BY THE END OF 2012 60 3 rd NF,POLYMER KERMANSHAH,BUTEN-1(JAM), NITRIC ACID(KAROON), HDPE 11 TH OLEFIN (1 ST KAVIAN) 57.1 50 PVC, CHLORINE-ALKALI(ARVAND) LDPE (AMIR KABIR),POLY STYRENE2(TABRIZ), UREA2(PARDIS) 51.1 54.5 40 EB/SM (PARS),HDPE(MEHR,6 TH METHANOL(2 ND ZAGROS),2 ND AMMONIA(PARDIS),(FARSASHIMI),1 ST ISOCYANATE (KAROON),EG(LALEH),LDPE 5 TH OLEFIN(MORVARID) PET 1(TONDGUYAN),FAJR2,9 TH OLEFIN((ARYA SASOL),10 th OLEFIN(1 st phase JAM),5 TH UREA&AMMONIA(KERMANSHAH) 4 TH UREA&AMMONIA(1 ST PARDIS),4 TH AROMATIC(NOURI),3 RD AMMONIA(RAZI),4 TH METHANOL(1 ST ZAGROS),PC(KHUZESTAN) 30 SHAHID TONDGUYAN-2,PTA(FANAVARAN),AA&CO(AMIR KABIR,LLD/HD(PARS),7 TH OLEFIN( MARUN),,ETHANE EXTRACTION 1 ST SHAHID TONDGUYAN,BUALI SINA 20 10 0 0.1 KHARG SHIRAZ 2.7 3.1 5.4 ABADAN,RAZI BISOOTUN,3 RD METHANOL(FANAVARAN),EPOXY REZIN(KHUZESTAN) HDPE(AMIR KABIR), MTBE(BANDAR IMAM) BANDAR IMAM,METHANOL(KHARG),(P.X.)TABRIZ SHIRAZ,RAZI2 10.3 10.6 ARAK,BANDAR IMAM(2 nd phase) 14.5 14.2 Bandar Imam 1 st Phase 20.4 18.2 9 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
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PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION No. of Plans 67 Design Capacity Products Value 61 Million Ton/Year 32 Billion USD/Yr Average physical Progress 20% Total Capital Investment 39 Billion $USD 11
WEST ETHYLENE PIPELINE 12
METHANOL PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION No. Name of Project Name of Company Capacity 1000T/Y Progress (%) 1 10 th Methanol Kaveh PC 2310 65.85 2 7 th Methanol Marjan PC 1650 22.41 3 8 th Methanol Sabalan PC 1650 17.55 4 9 th Methanol Dena PC 1650 17.48 5 11 th Methanol Veniran Apadana PC 1650 9.5 6 12 th Methanol Middle East Kimiya Pars Co. 1650 7 13 th Methanol Di Polymer Aryan PC 1650 10 8 14 th Methanol Arman Methanol Co. 1650 11.37 9 15 th Methanol Siraf Energy PC 1650 18.56 10 1 st Ammonia-Methanol Arg Shimi Parsa Co. 990 11.04 11 2 nd Ammonia-Methanol Lavan Industry Exp. Co. 990 8 12 16 th Olefin-Methanol Bushehr PC 1650 10.39 Sum 19140 13
EXISTING METHANOL CAPACITY No. Name of Project Name of Company Capacity 1000T/Y 1 1 st Methanol Shiraz PC 84 2 2 nd Methanol Kharg PC 660 3 3 rd Methanol Fanavaran PC 1000 4 4 th & 5 th Methanol Zagros1&2 PC 3300 Sum 5044 14
METHANOL PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN YEAR OF 2018-2019 Plant& Project Capacity 1000 t/y Existing Plants 5044 Projects under implementation 19140 Sum 24184 15
EVOLUTION OF IRAN PETROCHEMICALS Commodity Chemicals Performance Polymers Basic Chemicals Olefins Aromatics Chlorine Fertilizers EG s PTA Methanol Styrene Differentiated Polymers PE PP PS PET ABS PC Synthetic Rubbers Acrylates Polyurethanes Specialty Chemicals MDI/TDI Polyols Amines Ethoxylates Glycol Ethers PO Downstream Industries 16 16
NEW CAPACITY BASED ON ACHIEVABLE FEEDSTOCK No. of Plans 36 Design Capacity 60 Million Tons/Yr Value of Saleable Products 30 Billion USD/Yr Total Capital Investment 42 Billion USD 17
TOTAL ACHIEVABLE FEEDSTOCK FOR NEW PROJECTS Feed Name Unit Amount Ethane Million Ton/Year 4 Naphtha / Condensate Methane ( Natural Gas) Propane & Butane Million Ton/Year Million M 3 /Day Million Ton/Year 5 100 2 18
SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD PRODUCTS Gas Phase Condensate LPG Ethane Methane 19
In next development plan; Advantage of Natural Gas feedstock in Iran, creates the potential to move towards MTO, MTP and PROPYLENE DERIVATIVES 20
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Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST ETHYLENE CAPACITY 40 2015 2020 2025 32 32 30 20 22.1 10 4 7 7.5 0 World Middle East The international trade of ethylene is quite limited due to expenses associated with transportation. As a result, most ethylene that crosses international borders is in the form of derivative chemicals, such as polyethylene, ethylene glycol, and EDC.
Percent Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST POLYETHYLENE CAPACITY & TRADE Capacity Trade 100 2015 2020 2025 100 2015 2020 2025 80 80 60 60 46.4 47.8 40 33 35 40 20 0 4 6.6 World 6.7 20 Middle East 20 0 15.5 2.9 World 16.9 10.8 Midlle East
Percent Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST ETHYLENE GLYCOL CAPACITY & TRADE 100 Capacity 2015 2020 2025 100 Trade 2015 2020 2025 80 80 60 60 40 20 0 4 5.8 World 8.5 24 19 12 Middle East 40 20 0 22.5 22.4 13.3 13.8 5.8 6.7 World Middle East
Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST PROPYLENE CAPACITY 40 30 2015 2020 2025 37 20 19 12 10 6.5 0 1 2.2 World Middle East International trade of propylene monomer is quite limited because of the costs of transporting highly pressurized or refrigerated liquids. Most of the propylene trade crossing international borders is in the form of derivative chemicals, such as polypropylene and acrylonytrile.
Percent Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST POLYPROPYLENE CAPACITY & TRADE Capacity Trade 100 2015 2020 2025 100 2015 2020 2025 80 80 60 40 47 60 40 39.4 20 0 2 2.3 World 7.7 19 11 Middle East 20 0 23.6 0 5.1 0 World 21.1 Middle East
Percent Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST METHANOL CAPACITY & TRADE 100 80 60 Capacity 2015 2020 2025 68 76 100 80 60 Trade 2015 2020 2025 65.8 55.6 40 20 0 5 20.1 13.9 World 31 Middle East 40 20 0 37.4 28 13 World 33 Middle East Iran has the potential to take about 50% of global trade in 2017. Most of methanol capacities in future projects, will be used to produce olefins through new technologies (MTO and MTP).
Percent Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID. EAST AMMONIA CAPACITY & TRADE Capacity Trade 100 2015 2020 2025 100 2015 2020 2025 80 80 60 40 44 44 60 40 48 40 20 0 2 4.7 World 5.2 23 Middle East 20 0 13 11.4 3.3 World 19.2 Middle East
Percent Percent IRAN S SHARE OF THE WORLD AND MID EAST UREA CAPACITY & TRADE Capacity Trade 100 2015 2020 2025 100 2015 2020 2025 80 80 60 40 20 0 2 5.8 World 6.6 44 44 24 Middle East 60 40 20 0 27.8 24.4 5.6 World 50.8 46.5 19.8 Middle East
%9 %22 % 7 % 5 2013 278 mmtpa %23 %34 %5 %20 %7 %10 2020 413 mmtpa %14 %24 %20 Middle East Africa S.E. Asia Aus/PNG S. America Others US/Canada 30
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EXPANSION OF PANAMA CANAL 35
THE PANAMA CANAL Rising U.S. shale-gas output is reshaping global energy markets. The Panama Canal enlargement is central to the change because the route cuts voyages by more than 7,500 nautical miles (8,500 miles) to Asia, where fuel demand is growing fastest. The waterway, handling 5 percent of world trade and shipping 333 million metric tons in the year to Sept. 30, is used by as many as 14,000 ships a year, connecting 160 countries and 1,700 ports, according to its website. http://www.bloomberg.com/ 36
THE PANAMA CANAL 37 37
EXPANSION OF PANAMA CANAL The Panama Canal is definitely good news for east Asia, and it s where the highest global prices for LNG are, Svenning said. His company is putting together deals to build vessels to ship the fuel that are based on using the canal for long-term charters, he said. http://www.bloomberg.com/ 38
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GENERAL INFORMATION ON THE NEW LOCKS 43
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CONCLUSION Petrochemical demand will remain tied to GDP growth Geopolitical factors influence investments Average global olefins feedstock slate will become heavier Switching to lighter feedstock will increase the demand for stand-alone plants to produce propylene 46
CONCLUSION CONT D Petrochemical industry plays a great role in GDP growth rate Shortage of basic petrochemicals will be resolved It will produce a variety of products currently not available in Iran New technologies will be used in the industry Huge opportunity for more down-stream industries contribution to GDP Appropriate areas for cooperation with foreign investors in Up-stream and Down-stream of petrochemical industry 47
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