China at a glance 2011

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Transcription:

China at a glance 2011 GDP PPP Growth rate Per capita Value US$11.29 trillion 9.2% US$8,400 Ranking 3 7 119 Labor force Imports Exports Value 816.2 million US$1.74 trillion US$1.90 trillion Ranking 1 3 1 Source: CIA World Factbook.

GDP (PPP) share of world total China vs. U.S., 1980-2016 Percent 30 25 20 15 10 U.S. China 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook. Note: Shaded area are estimates.

China s GDP growth less-export driven 1996-2012 Percent 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 Final consumption Gross capital formation Net exports of goods and services 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E Source: CEIC, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

FDI inflows: China vs. BRI countries Share of world total, 1992-2010 Percent 14 12 10 China 8 6 4 2 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Brazil, Russia and India combined

Ease of doing business in China Rankings of 30 Chinese cities, 2008 Lanzhou Starting a business: 29 Registering property: 29 Enforcing contracts: 30 Shanghai Starting a business: 5 Registering property: 1 Enforcing contracts: 4 Chongqing Starting a business: 17 Registering property: 9 Enforcing contracts: 8 Guangzhou Starting a business: 3 Registering property: 2 Enforcing contracts: 1 Source: World Bank.

Major concerns of U.S. companies in China USCBC member company survey, 2011 Rank Issue 1 Human resource: Talent recruitment and retention 2 Administrative licensing, business and product approvals 3 Cost increases 4 Competition with state-owned enterprises 5 Intellectual property rights enforcement 6 Standards and conformity assessment 7 Restriction on inbound foreign investment 8 Transparency 9 Equal treatment with Chinese enterprises 10 Market access in services Source: The U.S.-China Business Council.

Earnings grow fast over past decade Per capita annual disposable income in China, 1978-2010 RMB 25,000 20,000 Urban Rural 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1978 1985 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Composition of household consumption Urban households in China, 2010 Residence 9.9% Health care and personal articles 6.5% Clothing 10.7% Recreation, education and cultural pursuits 12.1% Other 10.4% Food 29.4% Transportation and communications 14.7% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Share of consumption expenditures by income percentile Urban families in China, 2010 Percent 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0--10 10--20 20--40 40--60 60--80 80-90 90-100 Household income percentile Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Food Transportation and communication

Wage grows fast in state-owned enterprises Average wage in urban units, China, 1995-2010 RMB 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 State- owned Units Units with Funds from Hong Kong, Macao & Taiwan Foreign Funded Units 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Services are gaining momentum Contribution to Chinese GDP growth by sector Percent 120 Agriculture Industry Services 90 60 30 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, CIA World Factbook.

Small enterprises in China are underserved by corporate banks Percent 120 100 ~5.1 million 770 million RMB33.5 trillion RMB34.4 trillion 80 60 40 20 Large enterprises Midsize enterprises Small enterprises 0 Number of enterprises Number employed GDP Bank loans Source: McKinsey Quarterly March 2011.

Banking sector dominated by domestic names Top consumer brands in China Rank Bank Country of origin 1 ICBC China 2 China Construction Bank China 3 Bank of China China 4 Agricultural Bank of China China 5 China Merchants Bank China Source: Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia.

Many consumer products are dominated by U.S. brands Top consumer brands in China: beauty and PC products Beauty PC Rank Brand Country of origin Rank Brand Country of origin 1 Head & Shoulders US 1 Lenovo China 2 Rejoice US 2 IBM US 3 Olay US 3 HP US 4 Maybelline US 4 Dell US 5 Pantene US 5 Apple US Source: Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia.

Majority of China s foreign investors are Asia-based Newly approved foreign investment projects by investor region* 2005 2010 E.U. 6.5% Other 14.8% U.S. 5.8% E.U. 6.2% Other 7.6% U.S. 8.5% Total: 44,001 Asia 70.2% Total: 27,406 Asia 80.5% * Investment made through free ports was counted by origin region in 2010 but was considered as from other regions in 2005. Source: Ministry of Commerce of the People s Republic of China.

Cultural and linguistic proximities matter Realized FDI by investor region* 2005 2010 Other 38.6% Hong Kong 29.8% Japan 4.0% USA 3.8% South Korea 2.5% Other 14.1% Taiwan 3.6% Singapore 5.4% South Korea 8.6% USA 5.1% Total: US$60 billion Japan 10.8% Singapore 3.7% Taiwan 6.3% Total: US$106 billion Hong Kong 63.8% * Investment made through free ports was counted by origin region in 2010 but was considered as from other regions in 2005. Source: Ministry of Commerce of the People s Republic of China.

Soaring investment in FDI projects While the actual number of projects went down in China Thousands 120 90 60 30 Approved FDI projects (L) Realized FDI (R) US$ billions 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 0 Source: Ministry of Commerce of People s Republic of China.

Share of total FDI by investment type China Percent 100% 80% Realized FDI FDI Projects 2000 2005 2010 60% 40% 20% 0% Equity joint venture Contractual joint venture Wholly foreignowned enterprise Share company with foreign investment Equity joint venture Contractual joint venture Wholly foreignowned enterprise Share company with foreign investment Source: Ministry of Commerce of People s Republic of China.

Nearly half of FDI went into manufacturing Realized FDI in China, 2010 Wholesale and retail trades 6% Leasing and business services 7% Other 17% Manufacturing 47% Real estate 23% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Purchasing price index for raw materials, fuels and power China Index 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Taxes paid by FIEs grew faster than realized FDI China Index (1994 = 100) 4100 Income tax collected from foreign investment enterprises Cumulative realized FDI 3100 2100 1100 100 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Sources: Ministry of Commerce, State Administration of Taxation of the People s Republic of China.

Business concerns regarding intellectual property in China USCBC member company survey, 2010 Percent * 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Patents Trademarks Trade secrets Product Counterfeit technology products Brands Copyrights Software * Percentage of respondents expressing concerns over each type of IPR. Source: The U.S.-China Business Council.

Patent applications granted in China By type, 2010 Inventions 11% Utility Models 46% Designs 43% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Labor disputes at outsourced firms make big news In 2010, serial suicides at Apple s supplier Foxconn caused damage to the American company s global reputation.

Ethnic conflicts may be a risk factor Chinese Tai Turkic Burmic Manchu-Tungus Tibetan Mongolian Hmong-Mien Korean Mon-Khmer Tajik Bai Tujia Sparsely populated Uninhabited Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc.

Rural population in China has been shrinking over the past 15 years Year on year change of population by residence, 1971-2010 Millions 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 Rural -10 Urban -15-20 -25 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Urbanization accelerates in China Urban population as percent of total population, 1960-2010 Percent 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 Source: World Development Indicators. High-income countries World China 78% 51% 45%