THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 (BY VARIANTS) GDP GDP 1980 1990 1998 2010 20302 Moscow 2007
Logic of interaction of economic variables in complex of models IEF RAS INCOM OUTPUT RESOURCE RESTRICTIONS AND INVESTMENTS PRICES PARAMETERS OF ECONOMIC POLICY 2 Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS
Macroscenario Exogenous variables Federal level Macromodel QUMMIR Infrastructure Model Inter-industry Model RIM/CONTO Model of Energy balance Scenario for Federal districts Level of Federal districts Infrastructure Models for Federal districts Macromodels for Federal districts Macromodels of Energy balances for Federal districts Inter-industry Models for Federal districts Inter-industry Models of Energy balances for Federal districts Scenario for Regions Level of Regions Inter-industry Models for Regions Macromodels of Energy balances for Regions 3
Comparative dynamics of economy of Russia and World economy - to a level of 1990 160.0 140.0 World GDP 120.0 100.0 80.0 RUSSIA 60.0 40.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 4
Decomposition under factors increase of GDP per 2000-2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Increase of GDP (in %) 10.0 5.0 4.3 7.3 7.2 6.4 6.7 Contributions of factors (Percentage points) Household consumption 3.6 4.7 4.5 4.9 5.7 6.3 7.5 Government consumption 0.4-0.2 0.5-0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 Capital investment 3.1 1.9 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7 Stock Inventory addition 5.8 0.9-1.1 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.9 Export 2.1 1.0 3.8 4.9 3.9 2.2 2.3 Import -5.0-3.3-4.0-5.4-6.4-5.9-7.7 5
12.0 11.0 10.0 Rates of internal demand and GDP, % (by corresponding a quarter of the last year ) Internal demand 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2003.1 2003.2 2003.3 2003.4 2004.1 GDP 2004.2 2004.3 2004.4 2005.1 2005.2 2005.3 2005.4 2006.1 2006.2 2006.3 2006.4 6
7.5 Dynamics Динамика of GDP ВВП в depending зависимости от on нормы a capital накопления intensity and share и роста of investments капиталоемкости in GDP 35.0 7.0 6.5 30.0 6.0 5.5 25.0 5.0 4.5 20.0 4.0 3.5 15.0 3.0 2.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 10.0 Темп ВВП, % Уровень капиталоемкости ВВП Доля накопления, % - правая шкала Investments share in GDP 25% 7
The forecast of dynamics of GDP depending on norm of capital formation and growth of a capital intensity (a share of formation of 30-35 %) 9.5 8.5 7.5 GDP, % 35.0 30.0 6.5 25.0 5.5 Investments Share in GDP, % - right scale 20.0 4.5 3.5 Level of a capital intensity of GDP 15.0 2.5 2006 20072008 2009 20102011 20122013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 20192020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20252026 202720282029 2030 10.0 8
Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDP Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDP from a final demand (on the end of the period on average values of contributions of factors) 2007-2015 2015-2030 1 Delay of raw export -0.20% -0.30% 2 Change of dynamics of the world prices for a source of raw materials -0.50% -0.60% 3 Delay of dynamics of consumer crediting -0.20% -0.60% 4 Acceleration of housing, road and infrastructural construction 0.50% 0.30% 5 Advancing growth of a salary in industrial sector of economy 0.40% 0.80% 6 Decrease in a share of import a increase of final and intermediate consumption 0.50% 0.30% 7 Increase in not raw export 0.70% 1.10% 8 Increase in the Government consumption 0.40% 0.50% Potential balance - percentage pointss of a incre a se of GDP 1.60% 1.50% From the capital 2007-2015 2015-2030 1 Increase of a capital intensity of manufacture -1,40% -2,30% 2 Increase of norm of investment 2,80% 2,60% Potential balance - percentage pointss of a incre a se of GDP 1,40% 1,30% 9
Comparison of an investment and inertial variant of development to hypothetical dynamics of the Russian economy in conditions of preservation of the rates which have developed in the USSR in 80th (1990-100) 650 600 550 500 Investment scenario 450 400 350 300 Russia - Inertia of USSR 250 200 150 100 50 inertial scenario 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 10
Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year (an investment variant) 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Household consumption 8.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.3 Government consumption 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0 Capital investment 12.5 11.0 9.8 8.8 7.9 Stock addition 13.8 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.2 Export 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 Import 9.5 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.0 GDP 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.8 11
Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year Investment scenario 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Industry 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.1 Building 10.8 10.0 9.0 7.9 7.0 Construction Agriculture 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 Services (incl. trade) 7.7 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.5 12
Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year (an Inertial variant ) 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Household consumption 8,1 6,9 6,3 5,7 5,2 Government consumption 2,8 2,2 1,9 1,7 1,4 Capital investment 9,0 7,2 6,5 5,8 5,1 Stock addition 12,3 2,7 2,4 1,6 0,2 Export 5,3 5,2 4,9 4,7 4,6 Import 9,5 5,7 5,0 4,7 5,5 GDP 6,2 6,0 5,7 5,2 4,4 13