HIGHLIGTHING THE FUTURE OF FINLAND Changing world and needed competencies Prof. Markku Wilenius Finland Futures Research Centre University of Turku
UNESCO Chair in Learning Society and Futures of Education (2016-2020) Goal: Means: Outcome: To make use of tools of futures research to eradicate global poverty and improve human well-being in developing countries Research, education and development activities focusing on global capacity building for futures thinking (individual futures preparedness) Individuals with higher level of futures preparedness = more future-prepared society
1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Understanding the past provides the key to see the future K-Wave pattern over industrial times 20,00 % 1st Kondratieff 1780 1830 Steam 2nd Kondratieff 1830 1880 Railway, steel 3rd Kondratieff 1880 1930 Electrification, chemicals 4th Kondratieff 1930 1970 Automobiles, petrochemicals 5th Kondratieff 1970 2010 ICT 6th Kondratieff 2010 2050 Intelligent technologies15,00 % 10,00 % 5,00 % 0,00 % 5,00 % Panic of 1837 1837 1843 Long depression 1873 1879 Great depression 1929 1939 1st and 2nd oil crisis 1974 1980 Financial crisis 2008 20xx 10,00 % Rolling 10-year return on the S&P 500 since January 1814 till December 2016 (In %p.a.). Source Datastream, Bloomberg, Helsinki Capital partners (illustration), Markku Wilenius
So what is the next phase?
Demand for future orientation - Processing - Strategy building learning Action - Scenarios - Delphistudies Interpretation - Weak signals - Environmental scanning observation Understanding change State of art Vision building Strategy implementation
7 Transformative CARE principles for future orientation in our learning organizations
1. Forget hierarchies & share the knowledge Fully functioning ecosystem requires to have all the necessary information available: Internal communication within the organisation Deep communication and collaboration with the customers The key resource is the ability to adapt to changing conditions
2. Shift focus from technical to social and system skills Strong organisational culture is based on trust: People are taken at their word, no need for command and control People are given responsibility and autonomy People feel empowered and free to express both their satisfaction and dissatisfaction
3. Get rid of innovation departments Full individual freedom and responsibility to organize the work enables continuous learning and improvement No ready-made solutions Innovation is seen as a feature of everybody s work
4. Embrace radical solutions Deep commitment to non-standard solutions: Seeking solutions that are uniquely best instead of following the industry standards Decisions made consciously with reflection instead of quickest and most convenient solutions Making a difference in the world
5. Commit to serious long-term thinking Long-term thinking taken to practice: Fast failing: if something is not working, it is not continued Constant challenging: keeping closer touch with the operating environment Resilience building: sensitivity to changes and requirements internally and externally Long-term builds right kind of motivation
6. Encourage risk taking Creating a culture where it is safe to take risks: Safe to bring up issues that are uncomfortable Safe to bring up unconventional ideas without losing credibility Safe to experiment with something that has not been tried before Psychological safety to unleash people s full potential
7. Use the future as a mission Letting the organization lead itself towards the future: Building strong principles (rather than targets) to which the organization shall reflect all its behaviour Testing different initiatives among co-workers The success of an initiative is a measure of its usability in the organisation The future emerges all the time in various forms
CARE principles for Finland s next 100 years 1. Forget hierarchies & share the knowledge 2. Shift focus from technical to social and system skills 3. Get rid of innovation departments 4. Embrace radical solutions 5. Commit to serious long-term thinking 6. Encourage risk taking 7. Use the future as a mission
Sources for futures literacy Individual capacity for future Cognitive level Emotional level Practical level knowledge about driving forces and trends systems thinking imaginative/visionary capacity self-knowledge knowledge of the surrounding world sense of agency ethical awareness entrepreneurial attitude empathy intuition openness towards change willingness to take risks communication skills collaboration skills problem solving skills participatory skills information management Unesco Chair in Learning Society & Futures of Education
Pictures: Pirita Männikkö; Heinonen & Tuominen (2006)
More information Markku Wilenius UNESCO Chair markku.wilenius@utu.fi Tel. +358 50 592 9121 Twitter: MWilenius Laura Pouru Project Manager laura.pouru@utu.fi Tel. +358 50 3290 711 Twitter: LPouru http://unescochair.utu.fi/
In the next centennial of Finland s story - in the world of 6th and 7th wave the best navigators are individuals with high level of futures literacy and futures preparedness. How can you contribute in building more future-prepared Finland?