Worldwide Laser Market Review & Forecast Created and Presented By: Allen Nogee, Laser Markets Research, President
Disclosure Slide At the time these forecasts were created, the author had a financial non-controlling interest in the following: Coherent Stock
Presentation Overview 35,000 Foot Overview Laser Trends Laser Forecasts by Application & Type Summary & Questions
35,000 Foot Overview
35,000 Foot View: GDP GDP Not Significantly Changed From Last Year Economic Uncertainty, Brexit, Trump Strong Dollar, Euro Weak, Yen Weak, Yuan Weak Lots of Talk of Trade Restrictions from US Pres. Economy Holding Its Own For Now
35,000 Foot View: GDP Sources: Commerce Dept. (Actual), Congressional Budget Office (Projected, Potential), WSJ (Graphics)
35,000 Foot View: GDP New Normal Causes: Demand for Commodities is Slowing in China Political Instability Slow Productivity Growth Wage Stagnation Aging Populations The Low-Hanging Fruit in Science, Medicine and Technology has been Harvested
35,000 Foot View: Laser Company Revenues Pre-Merger Employees Newport 950 MKS 3750 Rofin 2100 Coherent 2700
35,000 Foot View: Laser Company Revenues Breakeven Analysis
35,000 Foot View: Long-Term
35,000 Foot View: Long-Term
35,000 Foot View: Long-Term Declining Laser Prices, Especially Pump Diode Lasers 1990 - $1000/watt, 2000 - $90/watt, 2005 - $20/watt, Today - $~2/watt Greater Chinese Competition Strong Dollar, Little if any GDP Growth Fiber Lasers Displacing CO2 Lasers Diode Lasers Displacing Solid-State Lasers UV Fiber Lasers Displacing Solid-State & Potentially Excimer
35,000 Foot View: Long-Term 6.3% CAGR
2016 Laser Trends Developing
2016 Laser Trends: LIDAR Aug. 2016: Ford & Baidu Invest $150M in Velodyne Aug. 2016: Delphi & Samsung Invest $90M in Quanergy Nov. 2016: Intel Capital Investing $250M over 2 Years LIDAR Precise 3D Mapping, Expensive Radar Works In Most Conditions Cameras Cheap Ultrasonic Short-Range Larry Page vs. Elon Musk
2016 Laser Trends: LIDAR (US$M) Uses: Drones, Autonomous Vehicles, Robotics, Mapping, Industrial, Military, Wind Farms, Security
2016 Laser Trends: LIDAR Ford s More Sleek Autonomous Vehicle
2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Automotive Headlights BMW i8 (+$6,300) BMW 7-Series Audi R8 Europe 2016 Models Audi R8 In the US in Limited (25) 2017 models ($229,200+)
2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Laser Cinema Projection Lighting 160,000 Screens Worldwide 550 RGB Projectors Approx. 660 more RGB in 2017 4700 Laser Phosphor 50+ Models ---------------------- RGB: 2000 IMAX / 150 Giant IMAX / 74 RGB Laser IMAX Dolby Cinema (AMC/Wanda) 138 RGB Laser Dolby
2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Source: Christie
2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Projector Manufacturers Christie (Canada) Barco (Belgium) NEC (Japan) Sony (Japan) Laser Manufacturers Necsel PowerTechnology IPG Nichia (Blue Diodes) Appotronics (China) Cinemeccanica (Italy)
2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source General Lighting ----- LED ----- LASER Source: USC Santa Barbra
2016 Laser Trends: Safety Xfire Line System $30-$40 Safety Blaze bike projection $150
2016 Laser Trends: Safety Redstar Safety
2016 Laser Trends: 3D Printing Additive Manufacturing Stereolithography (SL) Formlabs Form2, $3,499 3D Systems ProJet 1200, $4,900 DWS Lab Xfab, $5,000 MoonRay, $3,500 Autodesk Ember, $7,495 B9CreatoR v1.2, $4,595 NEOS 800-2W freq tripled Nd:YVO 4 laser
2016 Laser Trends: 3D Printing Additive Manufacturing Selective Laser Melting (SLM) Over 1000 SLM Systems in 2016 Fiber, Disk, CO 2, Femto Fiber 30W to 1KW+, 1 Laser to 4 Lasers 3D Systems Concept Laser (GE) Materialise NV Matsuura e-manufacturing Solutions (EOS) RPM Innovations Renishaw SLM Solutions (Owned by GE) Trumpf, Sodick Realizer PolarOnyx
2016 Laser Trends: Flat Panel Displays Flat Panel Displays Large Displays & Small Displays High-Power Excimer Lasers
2016 Laser Trends: EUV ßSmall High-Precision Tracking CO2 Laser ßLarge CO2 Zapping Laser Source: ASML
2016 Laser Trends: EUV Commercial in 2018 or 2019, Maybe 20 KW CO2 Amplifier Today. Eventually 60KW 100KW Trumpf Building 70 Million, 34,000 Sq. M in Building In Ditzingen, Germany. 25 micron Tin Droplets, 50,000 per second Each Droplet Hit with a Laser Twice All Done in a Vacuum ASML Has Shipped 12 (4 in 2016) @ ~108 Million Each. 12 in 2017, 24 in 2018, 48 in 2019, so says ASML.
2016 Laser Trends: Communications 2016 was the Year of 100G Transceivers China Growth the Strongest (China Broadband 2020) Finistar +15% Rev., +10% Telecom, +7.7% Datacom Lumentum +21% Rev., +25% Telecom, +24% Datacom NeoPhotonics +24% Rev., +53% 100G Oclaro +55% Rev., +44% Telecom, +68% Datacom
2016 Laser Trends: Communications Source: StatCounter
2016 Laser Trends: Communications 35 Worldwide Cellular Mobile Traffic a Month (Exabytes per Month) 30 25 20 15 10 5 2015 2020 Middle East & Africa - Asia-Pacific - Eastern Europe - Latin America - Western Europe - North America - 15X 9X 8X 8X 6X 6X 0 Source: 2015 Cisco 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Cisco
2016 Laser Trends: Communications Silicon Photonics (Laser on Silicon) Intel Silicon Photonics 100G PSM4 Intel Silicon Photonics 100G CWDM4 500 m, 2Km, or 10 Km Range 100Gb/sec today, 400Gb/sec soon Currently Over Copper, 25Gb/sec Over 3 meter distance
2016 Laser Trends: Material Processing Material Processing 2016 What Happened? 2015 2016 Marking +4.4% +3.1% Micro +4.2% +23.5% (-1.3%) w/o Excimer Macro +6.8% +4.5%
2016 Laser Trends: Material Processing Material Processing 2016 What Happened? Greater Price Competition From China Unsettled Times (U.S. Election, Brexit, etc.) Smartphone Growth Slowing, just 3% in 2016 (10.5% in 2015) Newport & Rofin Transitions CO 2 to Fiber Conversions Slowing
2016 Laser Trends: Laser Types Changing CO2 displaced by Fiber Solid State Displaced by Fiber and Diode Excimer Displaced by Fiber (in some areas) Direct Diode for some Metal Cutting, Welding Excimer Displaced by CO2 (Lithography) 8KW TeraBlade Engine
Laser Forecasts
Laser Forecasts: Laser Types HP Diode QCL Fiber LP Diode, SSL, CO2
Laser Forecasts: Applications
Laser Forecasts: Communications
Laser Forecasts: Communications Revenues (US$M) CAGR 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 '17 - '22 10G & Under Transceivers $798.7 $812.7 $817.8 $844.8 $830.6 $814.8 $812.8 0.0% y-to-y 2% 1% 3% -2% -2% 0% 25G/40G Transceivers $952.0 $880.5 $817.8 $698.9 $534.0 $374.8 $213.9-24.6% y-to-y -8% -7% -15% -24% -30% -43% 100G Transceivers $1,284.3 $1,490.0 $1,671.2 $1,996.9 $2,254.6 $2,525.9 $2,866.1 14.0% y-to-y 16% 12% 19% 13% 12% 13% 200G+ Transceivers $159.7 $203.2 $248.9 $299.5 $336.2 $358.5 $385.0 13.6% y-to-y 27% 23% 20% 12% 7% 7% Total Transceiver Revenues $3,194.8 $3,386.4 $3,555.8 $3,840.2 $3,955.4 $4,074.1 $4,277.8 4.8% Source: Laser Markets Research y-to-y 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0%
Laser Forecasts: Displays Displays Revenue (US$M) CAGR '17 - '22 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $15.3 $42.7 179% $64.5 51% $94.5 47% $76.8 74% $92.8 21% $87.0-6% 15.3% $62.1 $85.6 38% $107.0 25% $126.3 18% $144.0 14% $159.8 11% $172.6 8% 15.1% $121.6 $125.2 3% $121.5-3% $117.8-3% $111.9-5% $107.5-4% $103.2-4% -3.8% $6.4 $6.1-5% $5.8-4% $5.6-4% $5.6 0% $5.6 0% $5.6 0% -1.6% $16.5 $18.5 12% $12.9-30% $10.0-22% $9.5-5% $9.5 0% $9.5 0% -12.5% $205.3 $259.6 $298.9 $344.3 $338.3 $365.7 $368.3 7.2% 26.4% 15.1% 15.2% -1.7% 8.1% 0.7% TV & Large Projectors Revenue (US$M) y-to-y Digital Cinema Revenue (US$M) y-to-y Light Shows Revenues (US$M) y-to-y Pointers Revenues (US$M) y-to-y Home Laser Projectors Revenues (US$M) y-to-y Total (US$M) y-to-y Source: Laser Markets Research
Laser Forecasts: Micro Materials
Laser Forecasts: Micro Materials MICRO MATERIALS PROCESSING CAGR Revenue (US$M) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 '17 - '22 Semi/PC Board/Display $375.7 $535.2 $383.5 $461.3 $554.7 $612.3 $675.6 4.8% y-to-y 42% -28% 20% 20% 10% 10% Fine Metal Processing $353.6 $363.6 $377.2 $397.0 $411.9 $429.7 $447.0 4.2% y-to-y 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% Non-Metal Processing $232.0 $251.9 $271.1 $286.9 $300.2 $308.6 $317.3 4.7% y-to-y 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% Additive Manufacturing $49.7 $53.2 $56.6 $60.2 $62.8 $66.4 $70.3 5.7% y-to-y 7% 6% 6% 4% 6% 6% Solar/Other $93.9 $94.5 $90.4 $75.3 $66.6 $59.5 $52.7-11.0% y-to-y 1% -4% -17% -11% -11% -11% Total $1,105.0 $1,298.5 $1,178.8 $1,280.7 $1,396.2 $1,476.5 $1,562.9 3.8% y-to-y 17.5% -9.2% 8.6% 9.0% 5.8% 5.9% Source: Laser Markets Research
Laser Forecasts: Micro Materials
Laser Forecasts: KW
Laser Forecasts: KW Revenue CAGR (US$M) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 '17 - '22 Metal Cutting $1,141.4 $1,189.5 $1,218.3 $1,268.5 $1,320.4 $1,370.5 $1,422.5 3.6% y-to-y 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% Metal Welding $296.9 $311.5 $322.9 $335.4 $355.1 $374.8 $395.6 4.9% y-to-y 5% 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% Additive/Other $53.7 $64.2 $89.7 $98.8 $108.8 $119.3 $130.6 15.3% y-to-y 19% 40% 10% 10% 10% 9% Total $1,492.1 $1,565.2 $1,630.9 $1,702.7 $1,784.4 $1,864.7 $1,948.6 4.5% y-to-y 4.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% Source: Laser Markets Research
Laser Forecasts: KW Fiber
Laser Forecasts: Marking
Laser Forecasts: Marking LASER MARKING Revenue CAGR (US$M) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 '17 - '22 CO 2 $181.4 $176.0 $170.7 $170.7 $170.7 $170.7 $170.7-0.6% y-to-y -3% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0% Solid State $49.4 $49.7 $50.2 $50.7 $51.2 $51.7 $51.7 0.8% y-to-y 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Fiber $265.4 $274.4 $282.7 $288.3 $288.3 $288.3 $288.3 1.0% y-to-y 3% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% Diode $64.0 $68.4 $73.2 $77.6 $82.3 $87.2 $87.2 5.0% y-to-y 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 0% Total $560.1 $568.5 $576.8 $587.3 $592.5 $597.9 $597.9 1.0% y-to-y 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% Source: Laser Markets Research
Laser Forecasts: Industrial Total $2,500 Marking Micro Materials Proc. Macro Materials Proc. $2,000 (Revenue US$M) $1,500 $1,000 $500 (1.0% CAGR) $0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Laser Markets Research
Laser Forecasts: Industrial Industrial CAGR Revenue (US$M) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 '17 - '22 Marking $560.1 $568.5 $576.8 $587.3 $592.5 $597.9 $597.9 1.0% y-to-y 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% Micro Materials Proc. $1,105.0 $1,298.5 $1,178.8 $1,280.7 $1,396.2 $1,476.5 $1,562.9 3.8% y-to-y 18% -9% 9% 9% 6% 6% Macro Materials Proc. $1,492.1 $1,565.2 $1,630.9 $1,702.7 $1,784.4 $1,864.7 $1,948.6 4.5% y-to-y 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% TOTAL $3,157.1 $3,432.2 $3,386.5 $3,570.7 $3,773.1 $3,939.1 $4,109.5 3.7% y-to-y 8.7% -1.3% 5.4% 5.7% 4.4% 4.3% Source: Laser Markets Research
Laser Forecasts: Medical
Laser Forecasts: Medical CAGR Revenue (US$M) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 '17 - '22 Cosmetic & Dermatology $523.1 $617.3 $716.0 $823.4 $938.7 $1,079.5 $1,241.5 15.0% y-to-y 18% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15% Ophthalmic $96.8 $103.6 $111.8 $121.9 $132.9 $143.5 $155.0 8.4% y-to-y 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% Surgical $172.4 $189.6 $204.8 $222.0 $237.5 $256.5 $276.5 7.8% y-to-y 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% Dental $45.3 $47.8 $50.1 $53.1 $52.4 $48.7 $47.0-0.3% y-to-y 6% 5% 6% -1% -7% -4% Total $837.5 $958.2 $1,082.7 $1,220.4 $1,361.5 $1,528.2 $1,720.0 12.4% y-to-y 14.4% 13.0% 12.7% 11.6% 12.2% 12.5% Source: Laser Markets Research
Summary
Summary 2016 Was a Good Year Marking +3.1%, Micro +23.5%, Macro +4.5% Medical +12.1% R&D & Military +6.4% Communications +8.2% Entertainment & Displays +25% LIDAR +9%, Flow Cytometry +10%, Spectroscopy +9.5% Worldwide Laser Revenue Grew 6.9%
Summary: Forecast for 2017 Displays and Light Shows: +26.4% Micro Material Processing: +17.5% Medical: +14.4% Sensors & Instruments: +8.7% Military: +6.1% Communications: +5.8% Macro: +4.9% R&D: +3.7% Photolithography: +1.6% Marking: +1.5%
Thank You Contact: Allen Nogee Allen@LaserMR.com