Dr. Sergio Cámara Izquierdo Email: scamara@azc.uam.mx Web page: www.scamara.com Research Area Sociedad y Acumulación Capitalista Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco, Mexico City, Mexico CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STAES. NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS AND POST-NEOLIBERAL SCENARIOS 7th Annual Conference in Political Economy International Initiative for Promoting Political Economy (IIPPE) Critical Political Economy Research Network (CPERN) Berlin Institute for International Political Economy (IPE) The Political Economy of Inequalities and Instabilities in the 21st Century September 13-15, 2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Berlin, Germany
INTRODUCTION The NEOLIBERAL GLOBALIZATION gave rise to highly integrated value chains (production, trade and financial markets) between Mexico and the United States. An acute HIERARCHICAL INTEGRATION took place. Neoliberal asymmetric patterns of profitability, capital accumulation, technical change, income distribution, and growth Deterioration of workers life conditions in both countries, but specially in Mexico, creating social unrest Two major factors have increased the UNCERTAINITY of the patterns of capital accumulation in Mexico and the United States The structural financial crisis of 2007-2009: Yet, not a clear pattern of restructuring, neither yet a post-neoliberal era The election of Donald Trump as POTUS
NEOLIBERAL CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: GROWTH Growth rates of GDP per capita, net investment rate and productivity Mexico and the United States, 1950-2015 GDP per capita Net investment rate Productivity MEX USA MEX USA MEX USA 1950-1973 3.17% 2.71% 6.99% 3.60% - 2.55% 1950-1981 3.29% 2.41% 7.56% 3.66% 4.14%* 1.95% 1982-1993 -0.41% 2.01% 4.81% 2.85% 0.46% 1.68% 1994-2015 1.14% 1.55% 4.44% 2.38% 0.90% 1.78% * 1970-1981
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: PROFITABILITY General rate of profit, Mexico and the United States, 1950-2015 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 33% 31% 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% México Estados Unidos
NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: ACCUMULATION Net accumulation rate NFI K General rate of profits p K Net investment effort NFI p Net accumulation rate, general rate of profit and net investment effort Mexico and the United States, 1950-2015 Mexico United States NAR GRP NIE NAR GRP NIE 1950-1973 7.0% 34.5% 20.3% 3.6% 28.2% 18.5% 1983-2015 4.5% 30.2% 14.8% 2.5% 21.8% 15.1% Absolute change -2.5% -4.3% -5.5% -1.1% -6.5% -3.4% Relative change -36.3% -12.4% -26.9% -29.9% -22.8% -18.5% Contribution 31.4% 68.6% 55.3% 44.7% NAR: Net accumulation rate, GRP: General rate of profit; NIR: Net investment effort
NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: TECHNICAL CHANGE Accumulation and productivity dynamics, average annual exponential growth rates, Mexico and the United States, 1950-2015 Technical composition of capital Mexico Productivity Technical composition of capital United States Productivity 1950-1973* 4.6% 3.6% 2.2% 2.5% 1983-2015 2.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% * 1970-1982
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: TECHNICAL CHANGE Technical composition of capital and productivity Mexico and the United States, 1982-84 = 100, 1970-2015 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Composición técnica del capital - México Productividad - México Composición técnica del capital - Estados Unidos Productividad - Estados Unidos
NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: GROWTH Growth, productivity and employment Mexico and the United States, 1950-2015 Mexico United States Y Y/L L Y Y/L L 1950-1973* 6.7% 3.6% 3.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.4% 1983-2015 2.5% 0.9% 1.6% 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% Keynesian growth 54.3% 45.7% 64.7% 35.3% Neoliberal growth 35.5% 64.5% 58.9% 41.1% * 1970-1982. Y: Product in constant prices, Y/L: Productivity; L: Employment
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: TECHNICAL CHANGE AND DISTRIBUTION 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Productivity of capital and profit share Mexico and the United States, 1982-84 = 100, 1970-2015 Productividad del capital - México Ganancia relativa - México Productividad del capital - Estados Unidos Ganancia relativa - Estados Unidos
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: WAGES 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Real wages, Mexico and the United States, 1970 = 100, 1970-2016 México: mínimo México: manufacturero EU: mínimo EU: manufacturero
NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: PROFITABILITY, TECHNICAL CHANGE AND DISTRIBUTION General rate of profit, productivity of capital and profit share Mexico and the United States, 1950-2015 Mexico United States GRP PC PS GRP PC PS 1950-1954 36.3% 0.58 62.2% 30.6% 0.75 41.0% 1980-1984 31.9% 0.50 63.6% 19.6% 0.56 35.1% 1997-2001 31.0% 0.43 72.5% 22.7% 0.64 35.7% 2011-2015 26.4% 0.35 75.7% 22.5% 0.57 39.9% GRP: General rate of profit; PC: Productivity of capital; PS: Profit share
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 NEOLIBERAL ASYMMETRIC PATTERNS IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: EXTERNAL DEPENDENCY Relative price of product and capital Mexico and the United States, 1982-84 = 100, 1970-2015 114 110 106 102 98 94 90 86 82 México Estados Unidos
CONCLUSIONS The NEOLIBERAL INTEGRATION of Mexico and the United States had a strong HIERARCHICAL nature that shaped into the neoliberal asymmetric patterns of profitability, capital accumulation, technical change, income distribution, and growth NEOLIBERAL GLOBALIZATION is concomitant to HETEROGENEITY in the national process of capital accumulation, in opposition to the homogeneity of the Keynesian period The hegemonic role of the United States played in the neoliberal restructuring led to their specialization in high value added financial and corporate services, depending on innovation in ICT technologies The subordinated role of Mexico implied an specialization in labor intensive production whose competitivity rests on low wage costs rather than technical innovation POST-NEOLIBERAL SCENARIOS: NOT: Free trade, international competition BUT: Trade based in international cooperation and solidarity (among workers)