Federal R&D Investments in the 2009 Budget Kei Koizumi October 24, 2008 for the University of Michigan Engineering Advisory Council AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd See the What s New section for the latest updates; see the Seminars and Presentations section for copies of this presentation.
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE THE FY 2009 BUDGET SITUATION The federal government had a record budget deficit of $455 billion in FY 2008, and an even larger deficit in 2009. To help control the deficit, President Bush proposes to keep domestic appropriations flat in 2009. Domestic appropriations barely kept pace with inflation in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Historically, federal R&D investments have closely tracked trends in discretionary spending. Entitlement spending will grow dramatically in the next few years as the baby-boom generation hits retirement age, and the financial rescue bill will add hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years. Future war costs are a big unknown.
Trends in Discretionary Spending, FY 1976-2013 in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars 1200 1000 Total discretionary 800 600 Defense discretionary 400 200 Nondefense discretionary 0 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 Data in fiscal years. Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2009. FY 2008 data are estimates. FY 2009-2013 data are budget projections. FY 2009-2013 figures exclude Iraq and Afghanistan military costs.
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE THE FY 2009 BUDGET FY 2009 has started, but only 3 departments (DOD, DHS, VA) have their final 2009 budgets. The remaining federal agencies are operating under a CR (continuing resolution) at or below 2008 levels through March 6. Because President Bush threatened to veto any appropriations bills that exceed his request, Congress has delayed the bills, which would collectively add $21 billion to the request for domestic programs. The next Congress plans to send the remaining 9 (of 12) 2009 appropriations bills to a new President. This Congress may still approve 2009 supplementals for NIH, DOE, and others as part of an economic stimulus package.
Total R&D by Agency: FY 2009 Proposed Budget Authority in billions of dollars DHS, $1.0 USDA, $2.0All Other, $5.2 NSF, $5.2 DOE, $10.5 Total R&D = $147.4 billion (revised) NASA, $12.8 DOD, $80.7 HHS (NIH), $30.0 Source: AAAS, based on OMB R&D Budget Data and agency estimates for FY 2009. MARCH '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1976-2009 * in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars 140 120 100 80 60 40 TOTAL R&D DEFENSE R&D NONDEF. R&D 20 0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Reports VIII- XXXIII. * FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. MARCH '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
Trends in Defense R&D, FY 1976-2009 * in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 DHS defense R&D DOE defense R&D Other DOD R&D 6.4 - DOD S&T 6.1-6.3 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in annual R&D reports. * - FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. FY 2008 figures exclude pending supplementals. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. DOD S&T figures are not comparable for all years because of changing definitions. MARCH '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
Selected Trends in Nondefense R&D, FY 1976-2009* in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars 60 DHS nondef 50 40 NIH 30 20 10 Nondef. R&D minus NIH, DHS 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Reports VIII- XXXIII. * FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. MARCH '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE THEMES IN THE BUDGET: INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS In response to the Gathering Storm report and others, President Bush announced the American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI) in his 2006 State of the Union address. There are also several congressional responses, culminating in the America COMPETES Act of August 2007, an authorization bill. For R&D investments, the theme is boosting federal support for basic research in the physical sciences (broadly defined). The plan: Doubling the budgets of NSF, DOE Office of Science, and the NIST laboratories over 7 to 10 years. But 2007 and 2008 appropriations leave the plan off track despite COMPETES.
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE THE 2009 BUDGET FOR R&D The ACI continues for a third year, with large increases for NSF, DOE Science, and the NIST labs to catch up to a 10- year doubling track. Again, there would be large increases for DOD weapons and NASA spacecraft development, but also increases for most R&D programs. The NIH budget would be flat, agricultural and environmental R&D agencies would decline. Congress has a long way to go in finalizing 2009 appropriations, but is hoping to add money to the request, especially for energy, biomedical, and environmental R&D.
FY 2009 R&D Request Percent Change from FY 2008 DOE Science +21% NSF +16% DOT DOD weapons NASA NIST DHS DOE defense DOE energy NIH VA NOAA EPA USGS DOD "S&T" USDA -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: AAAS, based on OMB R&D data and agency estimates for FY 2009. DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories plus medical research. DOD weapons = DOD R&D in "6.4" and higher categories. MARCH '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
FY 2009 R&D Appropriations in the 2009 CR Percent Change from FY 2008 (as of SEPT. '08) DHS VA DOD "S&T" DOD weapons USDA DOE defense DOE energy DOT EPA NIST NOAA USGS NSF NASA NIH DOE Science -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: AAAS estimates of R&D in the FY 2009 omnibus / continuing resolution. Only DOD, VA, and DHS have final FY 2009 appropriations. The remaining agencies are funded temporarily through March 6 under the continuing resolution. DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories plus medical research. SEPT. '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
National Institutes of Health Budget by Institute, 1998-2009 * (budget authority in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars) 30 NIAID 25 20 Heart Lung Blood 15 Cancer 10 5 Buildings and Facils. 0 All Other 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: AAAS R&D reports from NIH budget documents 1998-2009. * 2009 is latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. Adjusted for inflation using OMB's GDP deflators. FEB. '08 2008 AAAS
National Science Foundation Budget, FY 2000-2009 (budget authority in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars) $7 $6 $5 NSF budget $4 $3 NSF R&D $2 $1 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: National Science Foundation, and latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 budget. FY 2009 is budget request. FEB. '08 2008 AAAS
Trends in DOE R&D, FY 1987-2009 * in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars 12 10 8 6 4 2 DOE defense R&D DOE energy DOE Office of Science 0 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Reports VIII- XXXIII. * FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. FEBRUARY '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 5000.0 4000.0 3000.0 2000.0 1000.0 0.0 U.S. DOE Energy RD&D Spending FY1978-FY2009 Request million 2008$ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 request Fission Fusion Efficiency Renewables Fossil (including CCT demo) Electricty T&D Hydrogen (EERE)
9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 U.S. DOE Energy RD&D FY1978-FY2009 Administration Request Hydrogen (EERE) Electricity T&D million 2008$ 6000.0 5000.0 4000.0 3000.0 Basic Energy Sciences Fossil including CCT demo Renewables 2000.0 Efficiency 1000.0 0.0 Fusion 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Federal R&D by Performer at Selected Agencies billions of FY 2007 obligations (preliminary) * NIH R&D - $27.8 billion. Shown as two bars. 15 Other Univs./Colleges 10 FFRDCs Industry Federal 5 0 VA NOAA Interior EPA DOT NIST DHS USDA NSF DOD S&T* DOE NASA NIH* NIH* Source: AAAS, based on NSF, Federal Funds for Research and Development, Fiscal Years 2005, 2006, and 2007, 2008. R&D includes research, development, and R&D facilities. * - DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories. FEB. '08 2008 AAAS
A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program SOME NOTES ON ENERGY R&D Most federal energy R&D is performed in DOE national or federal labs, and industry. Although funding is flat so far in 2009 under the CR, the Senate proposed a 22 percent increase in DOE energy R&D. DOE s Office of Science, as part of the ACI, hopes to dramatically expand its energy research funding, especially at universities. ARPA-E is authorized under the America COMPETES Act, but so far has not received an appropriation. If Congress agrees on climate change legislation next year with a carbon tax or equivalent, there could be a major new revenue source. There is already discussion on setting aside a portion of revenues for renewable energy R&D and climate change research.
A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program ENERGY POLICY There are many proposals, but Congress will have to start over in 2009. Proposed climate change bills contain authorizations for new or expanded programs in energy R&D in areas such as clean coal, carbon sequestration, alternative energy, nuclear energy, etc. Congress is deadlocked over offshore drilling and other expanded domestic oil production, but agreed to let the federal ban on offshore drilling expire on Sept. 30. Comprehensive energy legislation could contain expanded mandates for renewable energy sources, as well as tax incentives or subsidies for renewable energy.
Trends in Research by Agency, FY 1976-2009 (as of 9/08) * in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 NIH NSF DOD DOE NASA USDA All Other 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in annual AAAS R&D reports. * FY 2009 figures are AAAS estimates of R&D in the FY 2009 omnibus / continuing resolution. Research includes basic research and applied research. 1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. SEPT '08 REVISED 2008 AAAS
R&D at Colleges and Universities by Source of Funds in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars, FY 1953-2007 50 40 30 20 All other Univs/Colleges Industry State/Local 10 Federal 0 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 Source: National Science Foundation, Survey of Research and Development Expenditures at Universities and Colleges, Fiscal Year 2007, 2008. Constant-dollar conversions based on OMB's GDP deflators. AUGUST '08 2008 AAAS
Federal Research by Discipline at Selected Agencies, AAAS A COMMUNICATION R&D Budget FY 2007 and PORTAL Policy (preliminary FOR Program THE obligations MACARTHUR in billions INITIATIVE of dollars) 15 12 9 * NIH research - $27.7 billion. Shown as two bars. life sciences other social sciences engineering math/comp sciences environmental sciences physical sciences 6 psychology 3 0 NIH * NIH * NASA DOE DOD NSF USDA Other Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development Fiscal Years 2005, 2006 and 2007, 2008. Development and R&D facilities excluded. FY 2007 data are preliminary. FEB. '08 2008 AAAS
Trends in Federal Research by Discipline, FY 1970-2007 A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE obligations in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 Life sciences - split into NIH support for biomedical research and all other agencies' support for life sciences. Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development FY 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. FY 2006 and 2007 data are preliminary. Constant-dollar conversions based on OMB's GDP deflators. FEB. '08 2008 AAAS NIH biomedical research Engineering Physical Scis. All other life sciences Env. Scis. Math / Comp. Scis. Social Sciences Psychology Other * * - Other includes research not classified (includes basic research and applied research; excludes development and R&D facilities)
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE HOW DOES THE U.S. COMPARE? The U.S. is still the leading science and technology superpower in R&D investments, but the lead is shrinking. The U.S. R&D / GDP ratio compares favorably with other nations, but defense development is a big factor in the U.S. Other nations: EU A plan to reach 3% of EU GDP by 2010, but it won t happen. Korea R&D growing by 10%+ a year, R&D/GDP ratio surpasses U.S. ratio in 2004 and hits 3%. China R&D spending grew 20% in 2004 and 25% in 2005; basic research still small, but expanding rapidly. India Not big in R&D spending yet, but there are plans to boost its R&D capabilities to compete in high-tech industries.
Shares of Total World R&D, 2007* All Other, $114 China, $87 US, $344 Total World R&D = U.S. $962 billion** Korea, $36 Japan, $139 Other EU, $99 U.K., $36 France, $41 Germany, $67 * World = OECD members plus Argentina, China, Romania, Israel, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, South Africa, Taiwan. 2007 or most recent year available. Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, 2008. 2007 data or latest year available. * *- calculated using purchasing power parities. AUGUST '08 2008 AAAS
Total National R&D as % of GDP, 1991-2006 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 Japan U.S. Korea Germany EU-27 China 1.0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources and OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators. Data not available for all nations for all years. AUGUST '08 2008 AAAS
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program A COMMUNICATION PORTAL FOR THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE FOR MORE INFORMATION The AAAS R&D web site is www.aaas.org/spp/rd