Sustainable urban mobility: challenges, trends & opportunities Jens Schippl (KIT- ITAS) EIONET Meeting on Transport and Environment, 24 May 2013, EEA Copenhagen INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND SYSTEMS ANALYSIS (ITAS) KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association www.kit.edu
Contents Urban transport: Generic characteristics and challenges Differences: Modal Split as an example Trends and Opportunities o Paradigms o Technological Innovations o Business Models o Dynamics in user perceptions and attitudes o Policies Conclusions Questions for the debate Basis of the presentation is the project urban transport which was commissioned by the STOA Panel of the European Parliament and carried out by ITAS and DBT on behalf of 2 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Characteristics and challenges High density - in terms of activities (commuting, shopping, recreation, delivery of goods etc.) High density - in terms of infrastructures and technologies High density - in terms of challenges Emission of pollutants and noise, congestion, waste of space; Various external trends such as scarcity in oil, ageing, urbanisation Safety and security issues High density in terms of policy options Huge variety as regards urban structures, geography, topography > All across Europe innovations are discussed for tackling recent and upcoming challenges in urban transport EEA (2011): Urban transport accounts for 70 % of the pollutants and 40 % of the greenhouse gas emissions from European road transport. 94% of the energy used globally for transport comes from oil Road traffic injuries are the major cause of death for the 5 to 29-year olds Innovations as solutions 3 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Degree in urbanisation and transport volumes are expected to grow 74% of Europe s population lives and works in cities and towns 2050 some 82% of Europeans are expected to live in urban areas At the same time there are shrinking rural areas and also shrinking cities Transport growth For passenger only slight growth or even saturation is discussed for several countries For freight further growth is expected Many common challenges and approaches for solving them; but also striking differences between European cities 4 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Congestion as a challenge 5 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Modal Split: challenge or opportunity? Source: TEMS the EPOMM Modal Split Tool. Data for 2009 6 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Different expert opinions on potentials for modal shift Example: thesis of a foresight survey (ITAS, KIT): In Europe, public transport, cycling (including e-bikes) and walking will have a modal share of 75 % in urban areas of more than 100.000 inhabitants. Different expert opinions as a challenges when it comes to give orientation for policy making > still a need for research 7 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Three general strategies towards sustainable transport Sustainable transport: having eco-efficient, affordable and reliable access to relevant activities such as working, leisure, shopping, visiting friends etc. this includes physical and virtual transport Sustainable transport can be achieved by: 1. Making transport modes cleaner and more efficient (users/goods use the same modes) 2. Changing the modal split (users/goods use different modes) 3. Reducing transport volumes (users/goods have different origins/destinations) 8 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Trends and opportunities - in interrelated areas Mapping dynamics in keyareas: Paradigms Technological Innovations Business Models Dynamics in user perceptions and attitudes Policies 9 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Visions and paradigms matter 50ies, 60ies: Vision of car-friendly cities > implemented successfully 80ies: Paradigm of Liberalisation > partly implemented Since 90ies: Sustainable Transport > many interesting approaches 2010ths: Competitiveness and sustainability >??? > Visions and Paradigms are influencing the design of transport systems > Visions and Paradigms are changing over time 10 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
E-Mobility is approaching in urban areas 11 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Information and communication technologies Examples: Ubiquitous information about all modes Improved access: handy tickets Tele-working, video-conferencing Smart logistics, smart trucking Expected effects: Modal shift Avoidance of trips Better load factors Problem: rebound effects are possible Source of images: www.dashandyticket.de ETNO and WWF 2008 12 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Business Models: traditional Car-Sharing Traditional Car-Sharing Vehicles owned by a fleet operator Fee includes tax, insurance, maintenance, mileage and fuel Reservation through smart phone apps, internet or telephone Vehicles have a fixed locations Nearly 500.000 users in Europe; steady growth rates Car-sharing customers in European countries in 2009 (red) and 2011 (red + green). Source: Loose (2011) Niche market for alternative fuels 13 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Business Models: Car2Go Source of image: Car2go 2010 Example: Car2Go by Daimler Since March 2009, 200 Smart fortwo are placed in the City of Ulm, Germany Access to cars by RFID chip on license of registered users Price: 0,19/ min., (incl. mileage, tax, insurance, fuel) More than 20.000 users (60% aged between 18-35) 700 1.000 trips per day! New projects with electric vehicles (e.g. Amsterdam, Stuttgart) Other automakers also start innovative projects 14 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Source: GVH, http://www.gvh.de/hannovermobil.html Integrated ticketing: two examples STOA-survey: integrated ticketing assessed as being highly desirable and feasible (STOA 2013) HANNOVERmobil, a smartcard that includes: use of public transport, including reductions for German railways access to local car-sharing system 20% discount on taxis Mobility card Berlin elektromobil : Field trial in summer 2011 Access to public transport 50 credit for e-car-sharing 30 free minute for Call-a-Bike > some shift towards PT and car-sharing 15 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Mobility Patterns: Modal Split in different EU cities Budapest (2011) Car PT Bike Walk 32% 20% 1% 47% Copenhagen (2010) Car PT Bike Walk Karlsruhe (2002) Car PT Bike Walk 25% 29% 22% 44% 31% 15% 16% 18% Source: Adapted from TEMS - The EPOMM Modal Split Tool http://www.epomm.eu/tems/index.phtml 16 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
kilometres per week Changing mobility patterns in Germany 350 300 250 Car (these days) 200 150 Car (by the end of the 90ies) 100 Public Transport (these days) 50 Public transport (by the end of the 90ies) 0 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 50 to 60 60 to 70 70 to 80 80 and above Source: Deutsches Mobilitätspanel Age Groups: 10-20 years old; 20-30 years old; etc 17 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
ICT are gaining importance Results of the Bitkom Study Webciety. (Scheer 2009) 18 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Interview meetings with younger urban citizens Several transport-related societal trends can be observed (ageing, individualisation, living-apart together) Here: Focus on young adults in urban areas which seem to be less interested in cars than the generation before more open for flexible modal choice strongly involved in social networks the first generation to grow up surrounded by internet and mobile phones In the STOA project on urban transport: Interview meetings with 20-30 years old people in 3 cities About 30 people in Budapest, Karlsruhe, Copenhagen Interviews last for 3 hours (questionnaire + discussion) Questions on mobility behaviour, perceptions, attitudes, expectations etc. The interview meetings were co-ordinated by Danish Board of Technology 19 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Characteristics of the three cities KA (300 000 inhabitants) and CHP (650 000inhabitants) High degree of satisfaction with PT and cycling Rather pragmatic views on car usage and related infrastructure Budapest (1 700 000 inhabitants) Critical views on public transport; safety concerns related to cycling Car is more often seen as symbol of economic welfare and social status But also many similarities, for example: most participants had lower incomes and often used PT and bicycles in all 3 cities congestion charging is seen as not desirable but as acceptable in all three cities there is support for car-free zones future traffic solutions should not contribute to increased inequality in people's possibilities to move around and take part in city life 20 Jens Schippl / ITAS EP, STOA, 20.04.2012
Motivations for modal choice CO2 is not something we can touch and feel. When it comes down to it, you don't think are electric cars the smartest and most ecofriendly choice? You think 'which is the quickest and easiest way to get to work?' (Denmark) Budapest [ ] That s decisive for me, that connections by public transport are optimal you can really reach everything. That I find very good. [...] (Germany) 21 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
What makes an attractive city? 22 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Different views on policies Responsibility for reducing CO2 emission Budapest: more than 2/3 say that each individual bears the main responsibility. In Denmark and Germany about half of the participants agree..role of the EU The participants have rather different ideas on the role of the EU in creating less polluting and polluted cities in the years ahead. Half or more of the participants in all three cities agree that decisions on urban transport are to be handled nationally and not left to the EU But many state that the EU can play a role designing the overall structures and as a tool for initiating good ideas and best practices 23 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Sticks or carrots in transport policies I think it is very hard to motivate people to change to public transport. I actually think it requires some pretty strong financial incentives or even prohibitions. And that s a shame, but otherwise I don t think it will work. (Denmark) In my opinion, prohibition would lead to crime and it would also generate tension. Similarly, if I prohibit something for a child, s/he will definitely not do that but somehow try to avoid it. If I have to pay, then, I try to cheat in this or that way but one will avoid it. (Hungary) [ ] we have an increase [of gasoline prices] of over 100 %. And of course, at the beginning everybody complains, but now hardly anyone complains when fuel prices are getting five cents more expensive. Ten years earlier, people went on the warpath when fuel prices exceeded 1 D-Mark [ 0,5]. And that s why I think that you can t reach people via their wallets, but rather by saying: This is a now a pedestrian and bicycle zone. (Germany) 24 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Summary of citizens interviews Significant differences between the cities; but there are also similarities Environmental issues matter for the perceived quality of life in a city Environmental performance does not matter for modal choice Access is crucial; travel time is important Safety and comfort are no major issues Broad support in all cities for policies that are improving PT, cycling and walking Pragmatic view on new technologies such as electric mobility Broad agreement that all citizens should have equal access to move around 25 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Transport Policies Local level is generally in a strong position Because of high density in interests policies often lead to conflicts Important to take interest into to account (participation) to overcome barriers and obstacles for the implementation New innovative approaches are emerging: It is crucial to facilitate large scale field trials and showcase activities in a highly integrative manner Long-term political support needed to enable sustainable pathways 26 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Effective no-regret policies Incentives / low hanging fruits in terms of money and acceptance: Heavy extension of cycling-infrastructure is still a promising approach for many cities (example Seville with surprising behavioural changes!) Image is crucial: promoting cycling rather as being flexible, cool and fun instead of too much focus on health and environment Public transport: transparency and integration are still crucial Improving conditions for car-sharing and related approaches are low-hanging fruits not much investments needed to achieve significant impacts 27 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Conclusions A variety in trends and dynamics can be observed High dynamics in ICT, business models and user preferences Different timescales are observable Short term for ICT and business models Mid-term for cleaner technologies and improved infrastructures Long-term for land-use planning Sustainability alone is not enough: A sustainable transport system has to be better and has to signal to be more fun than its alternatives Paradigms and visions matter - the EU level can deliver strong political messages Standards for new business models There is a need for testing integrative approaches and for learning It is essential to be aware of the dynamics in the system and to make use of them on different political levels >> integrative perspective is needed to understand and successfully govern the dynamics and potentials of new developments in urban transport 28 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013
Potential questions for the debate What is the most promising approach: cleaner technologies, modal shift, or reduction in volumes? What is the specific role of the different political levels? How to make use of changing perceptions and habits of younger people? How to foster emerging business models? What is needed to get integrated ticketing and seamless transport chains realised? What role can standards play for new business models How to apply an integrated perspective in planning processes - Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPS) as an approach? How to get long-term support for long-term measures? How to link sustainable transport with the paradigm of jobs, growth and competitiveness? Others.. 29 Jens Schippl KIT, ITAS EEA, Copenhagen, 24.05.2013