How is Natural Gas Availability Curtailing the growth of DRI production in the MENA region? 29 April 2014 World DRI & Pellet Congress Abu Dhabi Robert Smith 1
The Issues Natural gas availability in the MENA region: overview and forecasts What other industries are competing for natural gas contracts? To what extent is tightening availability a temporary issue?
TWh Petro-dollars Have Increased Middle East Energy Consumption... 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Middle East Electricity Generation AAGR of 5% AAGR of 6.3% Others Egypt Algeria UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Iraq Kuwait Iran 600 400 200-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 The region has always been a major player in supplying the global market with hydrocarbons, it is now becoming increasingly important on the demand side of the equation. This is due to a significant rise in oil revenues, continuing subsidies, increased spending power, and large infrastructural investments. This is notably so in sectors where investments are being made: the power, industrial, and petrochemical sectors.
Role of Natural Gas in MENA Power Generation (2012) 100% 90% 80% 70% 1% 1% 8% 1% 9% 6% 5% 27% 26% 19% 42% 39% 54% 52% 60% 50% 100% 100% 98% 98% 90% 82% 81% 79% 70% 40% 73% 74% 76% 13% 30% 58% 61% 13% 20% 40% 10% 0% 2% 2% 9% 18% 18% 13% 20% 22% Oil Gas Hydro Others
bscf/d Middle East Demand for Natural Gas 80 70 60 50 Others Kuwait UAE Iran (2000-2005): 7.2% (2005-2009): 7.0% (2009-2012): 6.6% Iraq Qatar Saudi Arabia (2012-2015): 3.8% (2015-2020): 3.3% (2020-2030): 2.8% Demand for natural gas will remain strong in the Middle East 40 30 20 10 -
mmscf/d Bahrain Gas Demand Bahrain's Gas Demand by Sector 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Energy Sector Industry Power 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 * Includes energy sector use and nonspecified others; excludes distribution losses. Slow growth through 2020 AAGR of 2% through 2020. Power and energy sectors are main drivers for the demand growth.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 bscf/d Bahrain Gas Supply/Demand 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Marketed Production Re-Injection Shrinkage, Loss, and Flaring Gas Demand
mmscf / d Egypt: Gas Demand Growth 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Sector Profile to 2030: Power and Industry Dominate The country is plagued by energy subsidies. Until now, government has resisted cutting subsidies for fear of inflation and social dissent. Egypt's energy subsidy increased by 40% to US$15.8 bilion in 2012. Egypt s objective is thus to transition from expensive liquidbased fuels (LPG, diesel and other petroleum products) to cheap natural gas. This strategy, known as the Natural Gas Connections Project, is part of a broader strategy to introduce gas competition into densely-populated urban areas. 2,000 1,000-1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Power Industry Residential and Commercial Transport Others* * Includes energy sector use, and non-specified others; excludes distribution losses.
bscf/d Gas Demand in Kuwait 3 Others Industry Power 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Healthy growth of 3-4% through 2020. Power sector is the key driver for demand growth. There is a chance for shutting down of the old fertilizer and switching gas supply for other power and industrial projects.
Iran: Domestic Gas Market (1) Gas Consumption in 2011 Total: 14 bscf/d Transport 4% Others 8% Power 28% Residential and Commercial 34% Industry 26%
bscf/d Iran: Domestic Gas Market (2) 40 35 30 Shrinkage, Loss, and Flaring Re-Injection Marketed Production Demand Demand growth has slowed down. However, this will not translate more gas availability for exports. 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
bscf/d Gas Supply/Demand in Oman 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Shrinkage, Loss, and Flaring Re-Injection Marketed Production Demand 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Qatar: Domestic Gas Market Domestic natural gas consumption is growing fast. In 2011, gas consumption in Qatar was approximately 2.9 bscf/d, representing a 12% average annual growth from 2000-2011. Most gas volumes were consumed in the energy and industrial sectors, especially the petrochemical projects and the GTL plant. Projects for Gas Supply to the Qatari Domestic Market (2010-2020): Al Khaleej Gas (Phase II): 1.3 bscf/d Pearl GTL: 1.7 bscf/d Barzan Gas (Phase I): 1.4 bscf/d Qatar s Natural Gas Consumption by Sector (2011) Total: 3.8 bscf/d Others 46% Power 19% Industry 35%
Saudi Arabia: How Gas Demand Will be Under Development Satisfied? Wasit (2.5 bscf/d) Under Development Dorra (0.4-0.5 bscf/d) Marketed Production (2011) 8.7 bscf/d Kidan (0.5-0.6 bscf/d) Planned In Operation Karan (1.8-2.0 bscf/d) Associated Gas Depends on OPEC quota
bscf/d Saudi Arabia s Gas Supply/Demand 18 16 14 Re-Injection Shrinkage, Loss, and Flaring Marketed Production Gas Demand Gas deficit may push Saudi Arabia for LNG imports. 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
bscf/d UAE s Gas Demand 2011 Total: 6.4 bscf/d Others 1% 12 10 8 Others Industry Power Industry 51% 6 4 Power 48% 2 0 At least an AAGR of 3% through 2020. Power sector is the main driver in demand growth.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 bscf/d UAE s Gas Balance 14.0 12.0 10.0 Shrinkage, Loss and Flaring Gas Re-injection Marketed Production Gas Demand 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Middle East Upstream Challenges Geographical distribution of natural gas resources. About 73% of Middle East gas reserves are located in Iran and Qatar. Bulk of gas reserves in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are associated gas, and dependent on crude oil production. High sulfur content, deep, and tight gas reserves are located in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain. Technical complexity in the development of sour, deep and tight gas reserves. High production costs but subsidized domestic gas prices. 70% of Iraq s gas reserves are associated gas. 275 tcf 129 tcf 1,168 tcf 890 tcf 50% of Saudi s gas reserves are associated gas. The Ghawar oil field holds almost one-third of Saudi Arabia s total gas reserves. Non-associated gas reserves in Iran are estimated at 927 tcf. Iran also holds over 241 tcf of associated gas. 216 tcf Abu Dhabi holds over 200 tcf of gas but gas reserves in other Emirates are not significant.
Cost Escalation in Gas Projects High costs are an important issue in upstream and downstream gas projects. Upstream Projects Massive Increase in Drilling Costs Massive Cost Increase in Equipment Pipelines Increase in Construction Costs for Gas Pipelines (Offshore and Onshore Pipelines) Gas Processing Plants Increase in Construction Costs for New Gas Processing Plants More Expensive Gas Prices in Middle East Import Projects More Pressure on Governments to Set Higher Prices for Their Domestic Consumers
Price Reform in the Region Iran: Iran became the first in the region to attempt a gas price hike in Dec 2010. The initial plan was increasing gas prices for residential and commercial sectors to nearly 75% of the natural gas export price index within 5 years. Gas prices for industrial projects should equal to 65% of the natural gas export price index. Oman: Raising gas prices from US$0.77/mmBtu to US$1.5/mmBtu in Jan 2012 and later to US$2/mmBtu in Jan 2013. Under the new mechanism the gas price should increase by US$0.5/mmBtu per year till it reaches US$3/mmBtu. Post 2015, the annual escalation for gas prices will be equivalent to a yearly US inflation rate or 3%, whichever is lower. Bahrain: Raising gas prices from US$1.5/mmBtu to US$2.25/mmBtu for energy intensive industries (ALBA). However, the petrochemical sector is still paying low prices at below US$1/mmBtu. Egypt: It plans to increase gas prices significantly. The cement manufacturers are already paying US$6/mmBtu. Saudi Arabia: It has been discussed in the SPC but no decision has been taken yet.
Results from Price Reform Bahrain: ALBA s profits in 2012 were down by more than 54% as global aluminium prices declined by 16%. Iran: The rapid decline in profit was mainly driven by rising domestic feedgas prices from US$1.5/mmBtu to US$2.25/mmBtu. The demand growth for natural gas slowed down, but the government is faced with more than US$600 million in unpaid debts from its customers. The energy reform plan resulted in high inflation. With high inflation and the devaluation of the Iranian currency, the energy reform plan could not achieve its goals to bring the domestic prices close to the market prices. The government was preparing to implement the second round of the price hike but the plan was rejected by the Iranian Parliament in November 2012.
The Role of Imports: Gas Supply Shortage Several years of negotiations for pipeline gas SPA Between Iran and the UAE (Sharjah) MOU Between Qatar and Kuwait MOU Between Qatar and Bahrain HOA Between Iraq and Kuwait Terms Sheet Between Iran and Kuwait MOU Between Iraq and Kuwait MOU Between Iran and Bahrain MOU Between Iran and Oman Why LNG? Buyers WILL NOT wait forever to receive gas from their neighbors by pipeline. Use of floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) have become a quick fix for the Middle East gas market to overcome spikes in seasonal gas demand. MOU Between Iran and Iraq MOU Between Iran and Oman SPA between Iran and Iraq
Regional LNG Import Outlook (mmtpa)* Europe Americas 55 67 96 2015 2020 2030 Asia 23 28 30 2015 2020 2030 Middle East 5 13 27 2015 2020 2030 198 247 325 2015 2020 2030 *Base-case scenario
US$/boe 160 140 120 100 80 60 Natural Gas Prices Versus Selected Oil Products Gasoil Fuel Oil Northeast Asia LNG NBP HH US Butane US Propane US Ethane 40 20 0 24
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