Report from the Council NW Hydroelectric Association Spokane WA October 30, 2014 Tom Karier NW Power and Conservation Council
Topics 1. Highlights of the 6 th Plan (2010) 2. What actually happened 3. What s new for the 7 th Plan 4. Comments: Environmental Methodology and High Level Indicators 5. Fish and Wildlife Program (reintroduction and protected areas) 6. Treaty update
6 th Power Plan: New Resource Additions Cumulative Resource (Average Megawatts) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2009 2014 2019 2024 Demand Response Simple-Cycle Gas Combined-Cycle Gas Renewables Efficiency Expected value build out; actual build out depends on future conditions. 3
Actual Events: Efficiency Exceeded Targets Every Year Since 2005 Annual Savings (MWa) 300 250 200 150 100 Target Actual 147 135 203 234 231 255 277 247 268 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Actual Events: Average Utility Levelized Cost of Conservation Remains Low Levelized Cost of Conservation (2006$/MWh) $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $16 $15 $11 $12 $15 $17 $18 $18 $17 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Efficiency (and a slow economy) contributed to flat load growth for more than a decade 30 25 20 GWa 15 10 5-1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Load Net of Efficiency Efficiency Resource 1980 Load
The 7 th Power Plan Will include new load forecast and resources consider capacity, adequacy, and imports include scenarios to achieve a coal free and carbon free future take into account CA, BC, markets, provide for an adequate, economical, efficient and reliable power supply
7 th Plan will identify adequate capacity Council Standard: LOLP Maximum is 5% 10% 8% 1,553 MW of New Gas-fired Capacity from 2010-19 LOLP (percent) 6% 4% 2%??? Changes 2010-15 Load = 650 MWa Gas = 493 MW +other changes 5% Changes 2016-19 Load = 520 MWa Gas = 660 MW +other changes 6% + 400 MW Leads to 5% LOLP 0% 2010 2015 2019 Operating Year 9
7 th Plan: How to meet capacity when most expected loss of load is for short durations (2019) 140 Event length (hrs) 120 100 80 60 40 Summary Table Duration Probability 1 hour 16 % 1-2 hours 44 % 1-4 hours 55 % 1-6 hours 69 % 20 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Probability of Exceeding 10
The Council invites your comments on two issue papers: quantifying the environmental costs and benefits of generating and energy efficiency resources proposed metrics to track our progress in meeting the goals of the Council s power plans Due Friday October 31.
Council s 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program Reintroduction above Grand Coulee Research and Monitoring Protected Areas (Milions) BPA Cumulative Fish and Wildlife Costs Thousands 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Total Salmon and Steelhead Returns to Bonneville Dam Power purchases Forgone revenues Reimbursable expenses Directprogram Fixed expenses 500 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Columbia River Treaty On Hold (NW recommendation: Canadian Entitlement) The Entity estimated U.S. benefits from the Treaty to be about one-tenth of the current Canadian entitlement. Of the $250 million to $350 million worth of power annually delivered to Canada, Washington state pays 70 percent, in tshe including 27.5% from the Mid-Columbia PUDs. Recommendation: The United States should pursue rebalancing the power benefits between the two countries. Canada is deriving substantially greater value than the United States.
Questions Tom Karier NW Power and Conservation Council (Washington) tkarier@nwcouncil.org (509) 359-2438
Energy Efficiency Was The Region s Second Largest Resource in 2012 Natural Gas 7% Geothermal <1% Nuclear 4% Wind 6% Biomass 1% Hydropower 46% Energy Efficiency 17% Coal 12% Based on 2012 Actual Dispatch and Hydro Resource Output; 2013 EIA data will be released in October/November of 2014 15
Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Almost 5600 MWa of Savings 6,000 Cumulative Savings (MWa) Federal Standards 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 State Codes NEEA Programs BPA and Utility Programs
Utility/SBC-Funded Savings Equaled 1.3% of Regional Electricity Sales in 2013 More Than Double the US Average Share of Retail Electricity Sales 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* US Average * 2013 is based on 2012 loads data from EIA. 2013 data is expected in October/November 2014
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 Thousands Total Salmon and Steelhead Returns to Bonneville Dam 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
PAGE 12 > 13TH ANNUAL REPORT TO THE NORTHWEST GOVERNORS > FISH & WILDLIFE COSTS Cumulative Costs 1978-2013, By Major Spending Area (Milions) Total of $13.7 billion does not reflect $2.42 billion in obligations to capital projects or $1.88 billion in credits Power purchases Forgone revenues Reimbursableexpenses Direct program Fixed expenses Source: Bonneville Power Administration for figures 1A and 1B.