Economy On The Rebound - PDF Free Download

Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. <#> Executive Summary Worst Recession Since the Great Depression, Likely Over June, 2009 Growth in the 2 nd Half Could Exceed 3.5%, 2010 > 3.0% Outlook Still Ahead of Consensus, But Not By as Much Some Indicators Turned In Early 2009, Many by Mid-2009 Employment/ Unemployment Still Lagging, Typical of Past 2 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 1

Executive Summary Typically, the Harder the Economy Falls, the Faster it Recovers Still Worried About Commercial Real Estate, Banks, Poor Railroad Shipments, Consumer Deleveraging, Geo-political Issues Bullishness Based on Inventory Restocking, High Productivity, Limited Declines in Housing Construction, Exports to Developing Markets Market Valuations No Longer Dirt Cheap, But Not Outrageously Priced 3 Where Are We Now? 4 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Tough Recession, Probably Bottomed in May/June (average last 10 recessions) Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, updated Nov. 6, 2009 5 Using Average Leads/Lags, Economy Bottomed in May Factor Bottom Average Lead Forecasted Recession End ISM Manufacturing Composite 12/2008 +5 months May, 2009 Personal Consumption 1/2009 +5 months May, 2009 Initial Unemployment claims 3/2009 +2 months May, 2009 Industrial Production 6/2009-1 month May, 2009 Source: Morningstar 6 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

If Recession Ended in May, Job Losses Should Stop Soon Factor Recession End Typical Lead/Lag Time Predicted Trough Employment May, 2009-4 Months September, 2009 Unemployment May, 2009-8 Months January, 2010 Source: Morningstar 7 Consensus View of the Economy: Anemic Recovery Driven by Poor Employment/Consumer Deleveraging WSJ Economic Forecasting Survey October, 2009 Quarterly GDP Inflation Unemployment Q1A -6.4 Dec '07 4.1 Dec '07 5.0 Q2A -0.7 Jun '08 5.0 Jun '08 5.5 Q3A 3.5 Dec '08-1.0 Dec '08 7.2 Q4E Annual GDP 2.5 Jun '09 Dec '09.7 1.5 Jun '09 Dec '09 9.5 10.0 2007 2.3 Jun '10 1.8 Jun '10 9.9 2008-1.9 Dec '10 1.8 Dec '10 9.4 2009 -.7 2010 2.8 Source: WSJ.com, updated Oct.10, 2009 8 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

There is potential for the economy to perform better than expectations My GDP View My Inflation Outlook Q2 Q3/Q4 Market Expectation a little high Growth could exceed 3.5%, because: End of Inventory draw down Renewed Auto Production Bottom in Residential Construction Inflation 2009 2% Inflation 2010 3% My Unemployment Outlook Unemployment Peaks Around 10% Peak Unemployment Around Dec 2009 Source: Morningstar 9 The Harder GDP Falls, The Higher It Bounces Could Mean Better Than Anticipated Recovery Year 1957 1953 1960 1973 1981 1969 1980 1990 2001 Average After Bottom, One Year GDP Growth Rate 7.5% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.5% 4.4% 2.6% 1.6% 5.0% Prior GDP Contraction -3.7% -2.6% -1.6% -3.2% -2.7% -1.1% -2.2% -1.4% -0.3% -1.7% 2007? -3.8% Source: BEA, Morningstar Calculations 10 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

The Consumer Drives the Economy Consumer Spending Weakens Industrial Production Falls Employment Falls Capital Spending Falls Source: Morningstar 11 Personal Consumption is the First Part of the Economy to Improve Leads and Lags Versus the Trough Personal Consumption Leads -4.7 Months Industrial Production Lags 0.6 Months Employment Lags 3.6 Months Private Investment Lags 3.0 Months Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Morningstar Calculations, Last 7 Recessions 12 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

Production Bottomed Well After Consumption Industrial Production Index 110 105 100 Production Bottom 95 90 85 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Updated Oct. 16, 2009 13 Consumption Moves Up Erratically From December Bottom 9,350 Real Personal Consumption 9,300 9,250 Millions of $ 9,200 9,150 Consumption Bottom 9,100 9,050 9,000 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Updated Oct. 30, 2009 14 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

Employment Very Bad, Goods Producing Very Hard Hit Jobs Lost Since 2007 Recession (in 1,000 s) Employment Data Service Producing Good Producing Government Total Employment Dec. 07 93,740 22,043 22,391 138,152 Jobs Lost -3,679-3,703 78-7,304 Percentage Decline -3.9% -16.8%.3% -5.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morningstar Updated Nov. 6, 2009 15 Finance Sector Hard Hit This Recession Service Jobs Lost Since the 2007 Recession Began (1,000 s) Trade Transportation Utilities Information Services Finance Professional Services Education & Health Leisure Other Services Employment 12/07 26,725 3,025 8,243 18,109 18,570 13,551 5,517 Jobs Loss -1,711-194 -546-1,470 804-427 -135 Percent Change -6.4% -6.4% -6.6% -8.1% 4.3% -3.2% -2.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morningstar Updated Nov. 6, 2009 16 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

Except Initial Unemployment Claims, Employment Data is a Lagging, Not a Leading Indicator Statistic Trough vs. Recession Bottom Recession Start Initial Unemployment Claims Employment Trough Unemployment Rate Peak Dec-69 6 Mo. Earlier 0 Mo. Same 9 Mo. Later Nov-73 1 Mo. Earlier 1 Mo. Later 2 Mo. Later Jan-80 1 Mo. Earlier 0 Mo. Same 0 Mo. Same Jul-81 1 Mo. Earlier 1 Mo. Later 1 Mo. Later Jul-90 0 Mo. Same 2 Mo. Later 15 Mo. Later Mar-01 1 Mo. Earlier 21 Mo. Later 19 Mo. Later Average 1.7 Mo. Earlier 4.2 Mo. Later 7.7 Mo. Later Sample Interpretation: In the recession beginning in Dec-69, initial unemployment claims bottomed 6 months before the recession bottomed. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Morningstar Calculations, Last 6 recessions 17 Its All About Attitude and Bargains The Propensity to Spend of Those With Jobs Is Far More Important Than Small Incremental Changes in the Unemployment Rate If the Economy Could Only Improve When Jobs Improved, There Would Be Almost No Way Out of Any Recession Those With Jobs Feeling More Confident and Those With Limited Debt Going Shopping For Bargains Ultimately Drives Recoveries 18 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

Real Hourly Wages Have More Predictive Power for the Economy and Turned Before Consumer Spending 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Real Hourly Wage Real Personal Consumption Source: Morningstar, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Updated Oct. 30, 2009 19 Things To Be Positive About 20 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

What Has Bottomed? Indicator Real Hourly Wages 10 Year Treasury Consumer Spending Commodities Consumer Confidence Housing Starts Stock Prices Bottom Nov-08 Dec-08 Dec-09 Feb-09 Feb-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Retail Sales Real Income Industrial Production Apr-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Source: Morningstar 21 Initial Unemployment Claims have been Trending Down since April 700,000 Initial Unemployment Claims 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Updated November 5, 2009 22 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

Interestingly, the Claims % is Well Below Past Recessions Recession Start Date Peak Unemployment Peak Initial Claims/Covered Employment Dec-69 Nov-73 Jan-80 Jul-81 Jul-90 Jul-01 Average 6.10% 9.00% 8.60% 10.80% 7.80% 6.00% 8.05% 0.65% 0.85% 0.73% 0.77% 0.47% 0.38% 0.64% Dec-07 9.8%(Sept) 0.49% (.40% now) Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, BLS, Morningstar, Updated 10/15/2009 23 ISM Manufacturing Data Portends GDP Growth Greater Than 3% 90 ISM Index 80 70 Diffusion Index 60 50 40 30 20 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: ISM Updated 11/2/2009 Solid Bars Are Official NBER Recessions 24 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

Manufacturing Orders Were a Great Leading Indicator ISM Manufacturing New Orders 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: ISM, Updated 11/2/2009 Solid Bars Are Official Recession Periods 25 ISM New Orders Index an Excellent Economic Indicator ISM New Orders Trough Versus Recession Bottom Recession Start Dec-69 Nov-73 Jan-80 Jul-81 Jul-90 Mar-01 Average Dec. 07 ISM New Orders Peak 0 Months Same 3 Months Ahead 1 Month Ahead 12 Months Ahead 2 Months Ahead 10 Months Ahead 4.7 Months Ahead Troughed Dec. 08 Source: ISM, Morningstar analysis and calculations, updated 7/1/2009 Sample Interpretation: In the recession beginning in November of 1973, ISM The New Orders Index bottomed 3 months before the recession bottomed. 26 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

Interest Rates Tame for Now, After Spike 10 Year Treasury Rates 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Source: St Louis Federal Reserve 27 Demand Deferred, Not Lost: The Rubber Band Effect 28 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Starts Far Below Natural Demand, Improvement Begins Monthly Total Housing Starts (SAAR, thousands) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Red Bar Represents Average Natural Demand, Morningstar Estimate Source: Census Bureau, Morningstar, Updated Oct. 20, 2009 29 Existing Home Inventories Declining But Not Fast Enough Inventory Existing Homes 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Thousands of Homes 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: National Association of Realtors, Updated Oct. 23, 2009 30 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

Housing Affordability Still Near Record High 200 Composite Housing Affordability Index (Median Income = Qualifying Income=100) 180 160 Index Value 140 120 100 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 80 Source: National Association of Realtors, Updated Oct. 30, 2009 31 Productivity Rebounding, Held Up Better Than 6 of Last 7 Recessions 7.0% Year over Year Change in Productivity 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Jan-68 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Red Bars Equal Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BEA, Morningstar, Updated Nov. 11, 2009 32 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

Auto Production/Auto Sales Unsustainably Low 33 Auto Production/Auto Sales Were Unsustainable Low Cars and Light Trucks Units 25.000 20.000 Millions of Units 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 Jan-76 Jan-81 Jan-86 Jan-91 Jan-96 Jan-01 Jan-06 Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Updated Nov. 6, 2009 34 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

Things To Be Worried About 35 Increased Savings Rate, Friend or Foe? 14 U.S. Savings Rate (Quarterly) 12 % of Disposable Income 10 8 6 4 2 0 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Updated Oct 30, 2009 36 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

Non-Residential Construction Continues to Dive, Bottom in Sight 40% 30% Non-Residential Private Construction versus Architectural Billings Billings Shifted 11 Months Forward Year over Year % Change 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Architectural Billing Index Non-Residential Construction Spending Source: American Institute of Architects, Census Bureau, Morningstar, Updated Nov. 2, 2009 37 Rail Volumes Have Yet to Show Much Improvement Weekly Rail Car Loadings % Change From a Year Ago 0.0% Jan Feb Mar April May Sep Oct -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% Source: American Association of Railroads. Updated Nov. 12, 2009, Morningstar Adjustment for Labor Day 38 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

Expectations for Inflation Have Increased Break-Even Inflation Rate 10 Year TIP 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Morningstar Calculations, As of Nov. 16, 2009 39 Swing In Short Term Expectation Even Greater Break-Even Inflation Rate 5 Year TIP 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50-2.00 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Morningstar Analysis, Updated Nov. 16, 2009 40 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 20

Market Valuations Anticipated a Turn Up 64% Source: Morningstar, Updated Nov.13, 2009 43 Even at the March Bottom, the Market Did Not Reach Record Low Valuation Levels 16 15 Market Bottom Price/Cycle Peak Earnings 14 13 12 11 10 9 PE Ratio 8 7 6 5 4 1953 1957 1960 1970 1974 1980 1982 1990 2002 2009 Red Bar Is Average of Last 9 Recessions 2009, Represents March 6,2009 Intra-day Low, White Box Is Nov. 13, 2009 PE Source: Morningstar, updated Nov. 13, 2009 44 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 22

Shiller 10 Year PE Modestly Below Average S hille r 10 Y e ar P E 50 45 40 10 Year Price Earnings Ratio 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Year Red Bar Is The Average PE, 1920-2009, Morningstar Calculation, Updated Nov. 13, 2009 Source:Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls 45 Investment Implications Long Term Bonds Look Dangerous Large Stocks Look Better Than Small Stocks High Quality Stocks, a Safer Bet Than Risky Assets Emerging Markets Feel Bubbly 46 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 23

Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Transportation Sectors Worth Some Attention Consumer Staples Near Term Beneficiary of a Weak Dollar Healthcare Stocks Should Improve as Legislation Is Finalized Transportation, a Slow Mover This Recovery. Buffet Bet. 47 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 24