Polyamide Intermediates World Market Overview Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015 Seoul, 8 May 2015 (Emma) Liu Xiang
WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY versus DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 7,500 7,000 6,500 If no new plants 2018-2020 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Capability to produce Forecast Growth 2.9% pa 3,500 Growth 2.7% pa 3,000 Annual Caprolactam Growth 3.4% Growth 3.0% Consumption 2,500 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
1,200 1,000 800 China 600 400 200 0-200 BASF DSM Ube Honeywell CPDC Capro Corp Lanxess Sumitomo Domo C.I.S Poland India Others Sinopec Bohui Shandong Hongye Zhejiang Juhua Shandong Luxi Hubei Sanning Fujian Tianchen Hebei Xuyang Shanxi Lanhua Fujian Liheng Shanxi Yangmei APIC 2015 CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY 2011 2017 1,000 Metric Tons per Year China Shijiazhuang Fujian China Baling Hengyi Additions 2017 Additions 2015-2016 Closures 2013-2015 Additions Additions 2013 Additions 2012 2011
WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 DEMAND BY REGION 1,000 Metric Tons 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 PA6 Engineering Resin BCF & Staple High Ten Yarn Textile Filament 1,000 500 0 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 North America South America West Europe East Europe ME & Africa S & SE Asia NE Asia China
WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE 2004-1,000 Metric Tons 450 350 250 150 50 ME & Africa 2004 S & SE Asia Taiwan & S Korea China 2004 2005 2006 2007-50 -150-250 N America S America W Europe E Europe Japan 2008 2009 2010-350 -450-550 -650-750 2011 2012 2013 est
WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE Post Trends 1,000 Metric Tons 450 350 250 150 50 ME & Africa 2004 S & SE Asia Taiwan & S Korea China 2004 2005 2006 2007-50 -150-250 N America S America W Europe E Europe Japan 2008 2009 2010-350 -450-550 -650-750 Forecast Trend to 2020 2011 2012 2013 est
ASIAN CAPROLACTAM IMPORT CONTRACT PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Asian Caprolactam Import Contract $/ton 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 1999-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
ASIAN 0.865PTA PRICE + 0.35MEG PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Asian 0.865 PTA + 0.35 MEG $/ton 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1999-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,000 500 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
ASIAN 0.865PTA + 0.35MEG PRICE TREND & CAPROLACTAM PRICE TREND vs BRENT CRUDE OIL $/ton 3,500 2015? 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Caprolactam PTA + MEG 1,000 500 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
AVERAGE PET RESIN AND PA6 POLYMER COSTS vs BRENT CRUDE OIL $/ton 3,500 3,000 PA6 2015? 2,500 PET 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Asia Cotton Price (May-Dec ) 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST ON CRUDE OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Cats & Chemicals Packing, loading shipping 2 Fixed costs of supplying plants Delivery 3 4 1 5 6 10 1112 8 9 2 7 8 9 12 1 3 4 6 7 10 11 5 6 Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) 3 4 9 10 8 5 1 2 6 7 2 3 11 1 5 4 12 10 11 9 12 7 8 Cyclohexane Cost of Production in Asia Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Energy dependant costs 2009 2010 2011 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Crude Oil Price $/bbl 2012
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST CRUDE OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4,000 Fixed costs of supplying plants Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Cost of Production in Asia 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Cats & Chemicals Packing, loading shipping Delivery 12 11 10 3 4 5 6 1 2 7 89 Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Energy dependant costs 1,000 Cyclohexane 2013 500 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Crude Oil Price $/bbl
TIGHTNESS INDEX World Capacity World Tightness Utilisation Rate Markets Index 96.0% Very Tight 1.4 93.7% Tight 1.2 90.0% Balanced 1 84.0% Loose 0.8 75.0% Over-supplied 0.6 (Sloppy)
TIGHTNESS INDEX For a given year: World Tightness Index = log 10 Capability Capability - Consumption Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity less Capacity off line* * Due to unscheduled stoppages, not scheduled maintenance turnarounds
CAPROLACTAM PRICE HISTORY - ASIA Tightness Index 1.6 VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 2013 0.2 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
CAPROLACTAM PRICE SCENARIOS ASIA NOV Tightness Index November 1.6 1.5 VERY TIGHT 1.4 1.3 TIGHT 1.2 1.1 BALANCED 1.0 0.9 LOOSE 0.8 0.7 OVER SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
THE PA66 SUPPLY CHAIN Butadiene Hydrocyanation HCN by-product Alternatives Adiponitrile H 2 HMDA HCN Andrussov + Adipic acid Acrylonitrile Electro Hydro Dimerisation AH Salt PA66
GLOBAL ADIPONITRILE CAPACITY Asahi 2.7% Invista Victoria 26.8% Rhodia 16.7% 2009 Invista France 16.7% Invista Orange 17.0% Ascend 20.1% Asahi 2.7% Invista Victoria 26.8% Rhodia 16.7% Invista France 16.7% Ascend 20.1% Invista Orange 17.0% Invista France 13.2% Invista Victoria 21.1% Asahi 2.2% 2019 Rhodia 13.2% Invista China 15.8% Invista Orange 13.4% Ascend 15.8% Runxing 5.3% 1,240/1,495 ktpa 1,495 ktpa 1,895 ktpa 23% 77% 77% 60% 17% 24% 23% Technology Hydrocyanation Acrylonitrile EHD
WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 2,000 1,900 1,800 BASF closes 116 ktpa at Wilton, UK Forecast Growth 3.7% No new plants 2015-2018 1,700 1,600 Capability to produce = 95% capacity 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Growth 3.1% Invista s 254 ktpa unit at Orange, USA out of action Annual Adiponitrile Consumption 900 800 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Capability to Produce Forecast Growth 2.7% 2,500 2,000 Growth 4.0% Invista closes 450 ktpa at Wilton & Maitland, rebuilds Orange Adipic Acid Consumption 1,500 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1,000 Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Growth 2012-2020 3.9% PA66 Resin Staple High Ten Yarn Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre 1,000 500 2.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 2018 2020
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 SUPPLY & DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 800 700 Forecast Growth 9% PA66 Capacity 600 500 400 2006- Growth 8% PA66 Net Import PA66Product ion 300 200 100 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 DEMAND & SUPPLY End-Use Demand Supply by Producer Textile Filament 3% Engineering Plastics 52% High Tenacity Filament 28% Airbag 5% Guorui 2% Shenma 43% Huafon 6% Huayang 2% Invista 16% Ascend 5% Rhodia 4% DuPont 8% Cable Tie 8% Staple 4% Others 4% Nilit 4% Asahi/Tora y 4% Radici 1% Consumption 562,000 Tons Supply 580,000 Tons & China Customs
CONCLUSIONS Most of the world growth for caprolactam will take place in China, due to: Dominance in world production of PA6 textile filament Displacement of imports of caprolactam and PA6 polymer Massive caprolactam capacity additions in China have created overcapacity and have reduced cash margins to zero or negative. The expansion enthusiasm slow down this year due to poor margins. Some plants have been forced to close in high energy cost regions, more may follow The fall in crude oil prices will improve the competitivity of polyamide versus polyester
CONCLUSIONS Steady growth on the global polyamide 66 demand, but stronger growth is expected to occur in China. With Shandong Runxing new ADN plant and Invista s new HMDA plant to come on stream in China, Increased availability of raw material would help the development of polyamide 66 industry in China. New polyamide 66 polyamide capacity has been announced by Huafon Group (40 ktpa mid-2015), Invista (100 ktpa, early 2016), Henan Shenma (40ktpa, 2016). Besides existing polyamide 66 polymer players, some adipic acid producers also showed interest of investing polyamide 66 polymer plant to absorb over-supplied adipic acid capacity.
..your source of expert chemical industry knowledge