Michigan Population Trends: The School Age Population

Michigan Population Trends: The School Age Population Eric Guthrie Michigan s State Demographer January 16, 2018

State Demographer Michigan s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)

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Topics Population Trends and Projections Population Structure Migration Births Conclusions

Michigan s Population 10,100,000 10,050,000 10,055,315 10,000,000 9,950,000 9,952,450 9,962,311 9,900,000 9,850,000 9,876,199 9,800,000 9,750,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Michigan s Projected Population 10,800,000 10,600,000 10,400,000 10,200,000 10,000,000 9,800,000 9,600,000 9,400,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates; MDOT and U M s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE), Population Projections

Age Specific Projections 7,000,000 0 17 18 64 65+ 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates; MDOT and U M s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE), Population Projections

Projections for Children (0 17) 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates; MDOT and U M s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE), Population Projections

Why Does It Matter? There are only three things that affect a population size over time: Births Deaths Migration Population 2 = Population 1 + Births Deaths + (In migrations Out migration) Natural Change Net Migration

Michigan Age Structure Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Michigan Age Structure Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Net Migration 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11

Net Migration Rate by Age Group (Per 1,000 Residents) 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Domestic 00 17 Domestic 18 64 Domestic 65+ International 00 17 International 18 64 International 65+ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Births 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 134,642 136,171 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 113,091 113,312 80,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

Determinants of Fertility Biological Age Genetics Environmental Social Educational Level of Women Value of Children Cultural Expectations Much, Much More

Fertility by Generation (Births per 1,000 Women) 120 Boomers Gen X Millennials 100 80 60 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

Births by Age Group 45000 15 19 years 20 24 years 25 29 years 30 34 years 35 39 years 40 44 years 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

Birth Rate by Age Group (Births per 1,000 Women) 140 15 19 years 20 24 years 25 29 years 30 34 years 35 39 years 40 44 years 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

Educational Attainment 18 to 24 25 and over 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65 and over Less than high school graduate High school (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Median Age at First Marriage 31 30 29.9 29 28 27 26 25 24 27.2 26.0 27.9 23 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Male Female

Increasing Median Ages for Mothers Between 2003 and 2015 : Median age for mothers having a first child increased from 25 to 26. Median age for all mothers increased from 27 to 28 years

Conclusions Migration patterns are shifting and looking better for the state 2017 estimates show the state had a positive net migration for the first time since before 2001 Domestic migration is still negative, but trending in the right direction Migration will bring school age children in addition to those that are a result of natural increase Projected population increases are expected to result from migration

Conclusions Age at first marriage and first child are both increasing, which is resulting in delayed fertility Delayed fertility translates to reduced fertility Patterns of fertility are long term patterns that develop in society. Fertility in Michigan and the U.S. more generally has been trending downward for decades. The Total Fertility Rate for Michigan in 2014 was 1.81 versus 1.84 for the U.S.

Conclusions Declining fertility will translate into declining enrollment over the next 5 to 10 years, but enrollment should increase some following that period of decline Increases will not get back up to the peak, but declines will stop for a time Any decrease or increases in fertility and enrollment will not be experienced evenly across the state Some areas are seeing increases in enrollment even in this period, while other areas will continue to see declines over the entirety of the millennial generation s period of fertility

Thank you Questions?

Eric Guthrie Michigan s State Demographer Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Victor Office Building 201 N. Washington Square 5th Floor Lansing, MI 48913 (517) 241 8667 guthriee@michigan.gov http://milmi.org/population