ATSE Symposium The transition to sustainable energy Peter Littlewood 8 Nov 2016
The changing world economy Index 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Economies less energy intensive Electricity less carbon intensive 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP Electricity Carbon dioxide Population Data from World Bank, BP GDP is 2011 international $ at PPP
International cooperation Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO 2 ) 60.000 50.000 Historical emissions 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0.000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Projections Data from CAIT/WRI, BNEF Total GHG emissions including land change expressed as Gt CO2 equivalent
International cooperation Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO 2 ) 60.000 50.000 Historical emissions 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0.000 International meeting in Dec 2015 160 countries (95% of global emissions) Committed reductions in emissions Agreed target of well below 2 C Improve commitments every five years 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Projections Commitments in 2015 Data from CAIT/WRI, BNEF Total GHG emissions including land change expressed as Gt CO2 equivalent
International cooperation Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO 2 ) 60.000 50.000 Historical emissions 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0.000 Transition to a low carbon economy: Renewable energy, low carbon energy Integration of supply and demand markets Energy efficiency, storage, advanced metering Demand response, dynamic pricing 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Projections Commitments in 2015 Required for 2 C Data from CAIT/WRI, BNEF Total GHG emissions including land change expressed as Gt CO2 equivalent
Global greenhouse gas emissions Global greenhouse gases (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.7% 13.9% 24.5% Data from WRI/CAIT
Temperature anomaly 1.0 0.8 2015: 0.90 C above 20 th century average 2016: 0.99 C for January to September 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Temperature anomaly ( C) Data from National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Temperature relative to the 20 th century average
Global investment in electricity generation (US$ billion) 400 300 200 100 0 US$ 348 billion invested in clean energy in 2015 (highest ever) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (US$ billion) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 400 300 200 100 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Declining investment in fossil fuel technologies
Investment in renewable energy by region (US$ billion) USA 125 100 75 50 25 0 2004 2015 Rest of Americas 125 100 75 50 25 0 2004 2015 Europe 125 100 75 50 25 0 2004 2015 Africa, Middle East 125 100 75 50 25 0 2004 2015 China 125 100 75 50 25 0 2004 2015 Rest of Asia Pacific 125 100 75 50 25 0 2004 2015 Data from UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Investment in renewable energy by technology (2015) Solar Wind Biomass 161 110 6 95% of renewable energy investment is in wind and solar power Hydro 4 Biofuels 3 Geothermal 2 Marine 0.2 0 100 200 300 400 2015 investment (US$ billion) Half a million solar panels installed per day around the world Two wind turbines installed per hour in China Data from UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Wind power leaders (end 2015) Wind power capacity (MW) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 China USA Germany India Spain UK Canada France Italy 23,025 25,088 13,603 11,205 10,358 8,958 44,947 74,471 China s target was 200,000 MW by 2020 Now increased to 250,000 MW by 2020 145,362 GWEC figures, 2015
Solar power leaders (end 2015) Solar power capacity (MW) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 China Germany Japan USA Italy UK France Spain Australia India 8,780 6,580 5,440 5,070 5,050 18,920 25,620 34,410 39,700 China s target was 100,000 MW by 2020 Now increased to 150,000 MW by 2020 India s target was 20,000 MW Increased to 100,000 MW by 2022 43,530 Data from BP, EPIA, IEA, PVPS (some estimated) Utility and distributed; PV and CSP
Feed in tariffs ( ) and auctions ( ) USD/MWh 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Solar PV 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 USD/MWh 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Onshore wind 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 Data from BNEF
Solar module costs 100 US$ 77.0 / Watt Silicon PV cells cost (US$/Watt) 10 1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Exponential experience curve Cost falls by 25% when the installed capacity doubles 2010 2015 US$ 0.4/W 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative installations (MW) BNEF and other sources Module cost only; total installation cost varies with site
Wind farm capacity factors Capacity factor (%) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Increasing hub heights Longer blades Improved blade designs Better control systems 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Australia Europe, USA China India Various sources Typical capacity factors against turbine installation date
Levelised costs (global range) Levelised cost (USD/MWh) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Imported coal Local coal Low wind speed High wind speed Low irradiance High irradiance New Old Coal Wind Solar Nuclear Wind and solar costs: do not include intermittency Coal costs: do not include carbon Data from various publicly available sources
Comparison with Australian wholesale market prices AUD/MWh 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Wind Solar Queensland Victoria Tasmania New South Wales South Australia Snowy Converted at 1 AUD = 0.76 USD
Comparison with Australian wholesale market prices AUD/MWh 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 New coal fired generation New gas fired generation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Wind Solar Queensland Victoria Tasmania New South Wales South Australia Snowy Converted at 1 AUD = 0.76 USD
The growth of renewable energy Urgency Climate data Air quality Policy support in some countries Economics Lower capital costs Improved performance More competition
Global electricity generation 10.8% Nuclear 39.4% Coal Total 24,098 TWh 16.8% Hydro 21.6% Gas 4.4% Oil 2.1% Biomass 3.5% Wind 1.1% Solar 0.3% Geothermal Data from IEA, BP, Shift Project, World Biomass Association
Australia electricity generation 61.2% Coal 7.4% Hydro Total 248 TWh 1.4% Biomass 4.1% Wind 2.0% Oil 2.0% Solar 21.9% Gas Data from Australian Government, Chief Economist
New South Wales electricity generation 81.1% Coal Total 67 TWh 8.2% Gas 6.3% Hydro 1.3% Biomass 1.3% Wind 1.6% Solar Data from Australian Government, Chief Economist
Average wind speeds by latitude Latitude 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 -80-90 Data from 3 Tier, NASA 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Average wind speed (m/s) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Average wind speed (m/s)
Australia s weather CSDMS, University of Colorado
China 145,400MW India 23,000MW USA 74,500MW Wind energy resources Good (6 7m/s) Excellent (>7m/s) Germany 45,000MW
Wind energy resources Good (6 7m/s) Excellent (>7m/s) Data from Australian Government, Geoscience Australia, Windlab Systems
World leaders in solar photovoltaic power (end 2015) USA 25,600MW Germany 39,700MW China 43,500MW Japan 34,400MW 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Solar intensity kwh/m 2 /year
Australia s sunlight intensity on a world scale Solar intensity in USA (25,600MW of solar power) Solar intensity in China (43,500MW of solar power) Solar intensity in Germany (39,700MW of solar power) Solar intensity in Japan (34,400MW of solar power)
Wind speed Germany India China USA Australia Solar intensity Germany Japan China USA Australia
How much land do we need?
How much land do we need?
Country scale renewable energy Japan India USA China Land areas to generate all electricity from wind or solar
Tidal energy Tides of greater than 1m average range
Tidal range Areas with the highest tidal range equivalent to around 100W/m 2 Comparable to the highest tidal ranges worldwide 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2 3 5 8 12 Tidal range (m)
Wave power (kw/m) 60 50 40 30 10 30 20 10 50 60 20 70 60 40 50 30 10 15 30 40 20 30 40 50 70 100 30 20 15 20 40 50 40 40 30 70 80 100 South coast of Australia has some of the best wave resources in the world
Wave energy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Wave power (kw/m) 50TWh/year Data from Geoscience Australia
20% of electrical demand from marine power by 2050? Australia (South coast) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Wave power (kw/m) Australia (Northwest) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2 3 5 8 12 Tidal range (m)
Australia s geothermal heat 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Temperature at 5km depth ( C) Data from Australian Government, Geoscience Australia
Uranium
Known uranium deposits Main users USA France Russia China South Korea Ukraine UK Main suppliers Kazakhstan Canada Australia Niger Namibia Russia Uzbekistan Australia has by far the largest uranium reserves (29% of the World total) Data from World Nuclear Association
Coal Million tonnes Million tonnes 250 200 150 100 50 0 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1850 1850 1860 1860 1870 1870 Composite data from various sources UK coal consumption 1880 1890 1900 1910 USA coal consumption 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1920 1930 1930 1940 1940 1950 1950 1960 1960 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 No coal fired power generation after 2025
-4,000-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Energy (PJ) Australia s coal Export Domestic
Energy (PJ) Coal markets 2000 to 2015 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Up to 90% of Australian coal exports go to these five countries Domestically produced coal Imported coal China China India Japan Korea Taiwan Data from BP Reducing coal consumption Imported coal will drop first Increasing domestic coal Imported coal will decline Starting to reduce coal consumption to meet climate obligations China may increase coal exports as it reduces its domestic consumption
Energy supply and use is in transition Coal and oil were 20 th century fuels Big decisions needed for 21 st century Government policy support Private sector investment and innovation Australia needs an economy without coal Australia has almost every source of primary energy Low carbon technology is an opportunity Australia as a leader in clean energy markets?