Stocks and Bonds Track Aging Population: 1952-2008 8 85.00% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Correlation: 93% Stocks and Bonds as a Percentage of Household Liquid Financial Assets (left scale) Population 35 Years and Over as a Percentage of Total Working Age Population (right scale) 8 75.00% 7 65.00% 6 55.00% 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 5 Source: UN World Population Database, Federal Reserve, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 1
Smoothed Growth in Nominal GDP and the Labor Force (annual rate of change from same quarter 10-years ago) 12.00% 3.00% 1 8.00% Correlation: 93% 2.50% 2.00% 6.00% 1.50% 4.00% 1.00% GDP (left scale) Labor Force (right scale) 2.00% 0.50% 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 Sources: BEA, BLS, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 2
18.00% Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Smoothed Growth in Nominal GDP 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% Correlation: 89% 1 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% GDP Yield 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 Sources: BEA, Federal Reserve, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 3
Current Dollar GDP year-ago changes (bars) & smoothed 10-year change (line) 2 15.00% 1 5.00% -5.00% 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 Sources: BEA, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 4
12.00% Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP (annual rate of change same quarter 10-years ago) 1 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 Sources: BEA, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 5
3 Population Growth Rates (Medium Variant Over Preceding 5-Year Period) 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 More Developed World Less Developed -0.5 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Source: UN World Poulation Database, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 6
3.50% Declining Working Age Population Growth 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 World Less Developed Source: UN World Poulation Database, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 7
Percent of Country Income for Top 20% of Population (latest available year) 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Latin America Average United States Asia Average Europe Average Source: World Bank, - World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 8
Public Spending on Education in Asian Basin (% of GDP) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 9
Public Spending on Education in Latin America (% of GDP, selected countries) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 10
Public Spending on Education in Europe (% of GDP) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 11
Public Spending on Education in Eastern Europe (% of GDP) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 12
8 Immigration/GDP Growth 25.00% 6 4 2 2 15.00% 1 5.00% -2-4 -5.00% -1-15.00% -6 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008-2 Immigration Growth (Left Scale) GDP Growth (Right Scale) Source: BEA, Department of Homeland Security, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 13
More Developed Countries 25.00% 2 15.00% 1 5.00% -5.00% -1-15.00% 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 14
United States 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 15
Western Europe 25.00% 2 15.00% 1 5.00% -5.00% -1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 16
France 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 17
United Kingdom 3 25.00% 2 15.00% 1 5.00% -5.00% -1-15.00% 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 18
Germany 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 19
Italy 25.00% 2 15.00% 1 5.00% -5.00% -1-15.00% -2-25.00% -3 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 20
Japan 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 21
China 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 22
Russia 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 23
India 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 24
Latin America 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 25
Mexico 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 26
Brazil 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-11 10-21 20-31 30-41 40-51 50-61 60-71 70-81 80+ 27
Venezuela 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 28
Saudi Arabia 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 29
Pakistan 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 30
Egypt 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 31
Afghanistan 5 45.00% 4 35.00% 3 25.00% 2 15.00% 1 5.00% 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80+ 32
Iran 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 33
Iraq 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 34
Turkey 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ 35
E.U & Candidates Aged Dependency Ratio (population 65+ as a percent of 15-64) 6 5 4 3 2 1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 EU EU + Candidates EU + Candidates ex Turkey EU + Cand + Potential Cand Turkey Source: US Census Bureau - International Database, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 36
Fertility Rate: Germany vs. Japan 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Germany Japan Replacement 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 37
Female Labor Force Participation 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Japan United States Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 38
Number of US Families with One Earner (thousands) 26,500 25,500 24,500 23,500 22,500 21,500 1989-99: +1.81% per Year 2000-09: +1.83% per Year 20,500 19,500 18,500 17,500 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 39
Number of US Families with Two or More Earners (thousands) 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 1989-99: + 0.86% per Year 2000-09: -0.29% per Year 30,000 28,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 40
US Women in the Labor Force and Smoothed GDP 72.00% 12.00% 7 68.00% 1 66.00% Correlation: -94% 8.00% 64.00% 62.00% 6.00% 6 4.00% 58.00% 56.00% Percentage of Women in the Labor Force (Left Scale) Smoothed GDP Growth (Right Scale) 2.00% 54.00% Source: US Census Bureau, BEA, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 41