PHILIPPINES RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FORTUNATO S. S. SIBAYAN Chief, Chief, Solar Solar & Wind Wind Energy Energy Management Management Division Division Department Department of of Energy Energy ASEAN Countries Presentation on Renewable Energy BITEC, Bangkok, Thailand June 3, 201
PRESENTATION OUTLINE I. Energy Sector Situationer II. Renewable Energy Roadmap III. Regulatory Framework
Part 1 ENERGY SECTOR SITUATIONER
2010 PRIMARY ENERGY MIX Total Energy = 40.73 MTOE Self-Sufficiency = 57.5% RE = 40%
POWER SECTOR 2010 INSTALLED CAPACITY Hydro 20.78% Biomass 0.24% Solar 0.01% Wind 0.20% Coal 29.75% Geothermal 12.02% Natural Gas 17.49% Oil Based 19.52% Installed Capacity = 16,359 MW RE = 33.25% (5,439 MW) Source of Data: GenCos 2010 Monthly Operation Report, 2010 NGCP Daily Operation Report Available Capacity Excluding off-grid generators. Newly commissioned plants in 2010 include the 3 x 82-MW Cebu Energy Development Corporation s Coal power plant in Cebu, 2 x 100 KSPC Coal in Cebu, 2 x 182 MW PEDC Coal in Panay and 42-MW Sibulan Hydroelectric Plant in Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur.
POWER SECTOR 2010 GROSS POWER GENERATION Geothermal 14.66% Biomass Hydro 0.04% 11.52% Solar 0.002% Wind 0.09% Coal 34.40% Natural Gas 28.81% Oil Based 10.48% Gross Generatiopn = 67,743 GWh Self-sufficiency = 38,948 GWh (62.89 %) RE = 26.31% (17,823 GWh) Note: Generation data includes grid connected, embedded, and off-grid generators
Power Supply and Demand Outlook (Draft PDP 2009-2030) 2030) GRID Dependable Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW) 2008 Ave. Annual Growth Rate (%) Committed Capacity (MW) Critical Period Required Add'l Capacity (MW) 2009-2030 Indicative Capacity (MW) 2009-2030 LUZON 10,030 6,822 4.5 600 2011 11,900 3,449 VISAYAS 1,505 1,176 4.6 654 2009 2, 182 MINDANAO 1,682 1,228 4.6 100 2010 2,500 581 PHILIPPINES 13,217 4.6 1,354 16,550 4,211 Dependable Capacity is based on the reports of power plant owners s (NPC, NPC-IPPs, Non-NPC NPC IPPs). Peak Demand is based on the System Operator (SO) recorded peak demand d by grid for the year. Average Annual Growth Rate is based on the energy and demand forecasts o of the distribution utilities as indicated in their respective Distribution Development Plan (DDP). Critical Period is the year when existing generating capacity will not be able to meet the peak demand and the required reserve margin (23.4% above the peak demand for Luzon and Visayas, s, 21% above peak demand in Mindanao). Required Additional Capacity is the necessary generating capacity y (on top of the committed) to meet the system requirement (including reserve). These are indicative capacities which are open for private sector investments.
Luzon Power Supply and Demand Outlook Luzon Power Supply and Demand Outlook (Draft PDP 2009 (Draft PDP 2009-2030) 2030) 0 5000 5000 5000 5000 10000 10000 10000 10000 00 00 00 00 20000 20000 20000 20000 25000 25000 25000 25000 equireddditionalap equireddditionalap equireddditionalap equireddditionalap 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 500 500 500 500 600 600 600 600 650 650 650 650 500 500 500 500 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 800 800 800 800 650 650 650 650 800 800 800 800 900 900 900 900800 800 800 800 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 ommitted ommitted ommitted ommitted 41 41 41 41 634 634 634 634 xistingapacity xistingapacity xistingapacity xistingapacity10030 10030 10030 10030 10030 10030 10030 10030 equiredeserveargin equiredeserveargin equiredeserveargin equiredeserveargin 1646 1646 1646 16461701 1701 1701 1701774 1774 1774 17741865 1865 1865 18651944 1944 1944 19442038 2038 2038 20382135 2135 2135 21352235 2235 2235 22352327 2327 2327 23272432 2432 2432 2432541 2541 2541 25412656 2656 2656 26562775 2775 2775 27752900 2900 2900 29003031 3031 3031 30313167 3167 3167 31673310 3310 3310 33103459 3459 3459 34593615 3615 3615 36153778 3778 3778 37783949 3949 3949 39494127 4127 4127 4127 eakemand eakemand eakemand eakemand 7036 7036 7036 70367270 7270 7270 72707582 7582 7582 75827934 7934 7934 79348309 8309 8309 83098710 8710 8710 87109123 9123 9123 91239553 9553 9553 95539945 9945 9945 994510393 10393 10393 10393 10860 10860 10860 10860 11349 11349 11349 11349 11860 11860 11860 11860 12394 12394 12394 12394 12952 12952 12952 12952 13535 13535 13535 13535 14145 14145 14145 14145 14783 14783 14783 14783 15450 15450 15450 15450 16147 16147 16147 16147 16875 16875 16875 16875 1763 1763 1763 1763 2009 2009 2009 20092010 2010 2010 20102011 2011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 201 2013 2013 2013 20132014 2014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 2016 20162017 2017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019 20192020 2020 2020 20202021 2021 2021 20212022 2022 2022 202 2023 2023 2023 20232024 2024 2024 20242025 2025 2025 20252026 2026 2026 20262027 2027 2027 20272028 2028 2028 20282029 2029 2029 20292030 2030 2030 2030 alaya alaya alaya alaya 68583 68583 68583 68583 etirement etirement etirement etirement 600oal 600oal 600oal 600oal ired ired ired ired ower ower ower ower 3355 3355 3355 3355 acan acan acan acan 408 408 408 408 acan acan acan acan2 2 2 2 uongridneedsatotaladditional uongridneedsatotaladditional uongridneedsatotaladditional uongridneedsatotaladditional capacityof11900from2011to2030 capacityof11900from2011to2030 capacityof11900from2011to2030 capacityof11900from2011to2030 45 45 45 45 MW
Visayas Power Supply and Demand Outlook Visayas Power Supply and Demand Outlook (Draft PDP 2009 (Draft PDP 2009-2030) 2030) 0 500 500 500 500 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 2000 2000 2000 2000 2500 2500 2500 2500 3000 3000 3000 3000 3500 3500 3500 3500 4000 4000 4000 4000 4500 4500 4500 4500 equireddditionalap equireddditionalap equireddditionalap equireddditionalap 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200200 200 200 200200 200 200 200 ommitted ommitted ommitted ommitted 240 240 240 240398 398 398 398 xistingapacity xistingapacity xistingapacity xistingapacity 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 equiredeserveargin equiredeserveargin equiredeserveargin equiredeserveargin 311 311 311 311335 335 335 335339 339 339 339348 348 348 348361 361 361 361375 375 375 375390 390 390 390406 406 406 406420 420 420 420442 442 442 442464 464 464 464487 487 487 487512 512 512 512538 538 538 538565 565 565 565593 593 593 593623 623 623 623654 654 654 654687 687 687 687722 722 722 722758 758 758 758797 797 797 797 eakemand eakemand eakemand eakemand 1331 1331 1331 1331 1430 1430 1430 1430 1448 1448 1448 1448 1486 1486 1486 1486 1545 1545 1545 1545 1603 1603 1603 1603 1666 1666 1666 1666 1733 1733 1733 1733 1797 1797 1797 1797 1887 1887 1887 1887 1983 1983 1983 1983 2082 2082 2082 2082 2187 2187 2187 2187 2297 2297 2297 2297 2413 2413 2413 2413 2535 2535 2535 2535 2663 2663 2663 2663 2797 2797 2797 2797 2938 2938 2938 2938 3086 3086 3086 3086 3241 3241 3241 3241 3404 3404 3404 3404 2009 2009 2009 20092010 2010 2010 20102011 2011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 2012013 2013 2013 20132014 2014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 2016 20162017 2017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019 20192020 2020 2020 20202021 2021 2021 20212022 2022 2022 2022023 2023 2023 20232024 2024 2024 20242025 2025 2025 20252026 2026 2026 20262027 2027 2027 20272028 2028 2028 20282029 2029 2029 20292030 2030 2030 2030 48 48 48 48 etirement etirement etirement etirement 240oal 240oal 240oal 240oalired ired ired ired ebunergyev ebunergyev ebunergyev ebunergyevtower tower tower tower orp orp orp orp 160oal 160oal 160oal 160oaliredanay iredanay iredanay iredanay nergyev nergyev nergyev nergyevtorp torp torp torp 200 200 200 200alcon alcon alcon alcon 175anayiomass 175anayiomass 175anayiomass 175anayiomass 20asuloeo 20asuloeo 20asuloeo 20asuloeo isayasgridneedsatotaladditional isayasgridneedsatotaladditional isayasgridneedsatotaladditional isayasgridneedsatotaladditional capacityof2onwardsto2030 capacityof2onwardsto2030 capacityof2onwardsto2030 capacityof2onwardsto2030 MW
Mindanao Power Supply and Demand Outlook (Draft PDP 2009-2030) 2030) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 42 MW Sibulan Hydro 8 MW Cabulig Hydro 50 MW Mindanao Geo MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Required Additional Cap 50 50 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1,100 100 200 200 Committed 42 8 50 Existing Capacity 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 Required Reserve Margin 318 333 347 362 379 396 414 433 454 475 497 520 544 569 596 623 652 682 714 747 781 817 Peak Demand 1,359 1,421 1,483 1,549 1,620 1,692 1,769 1,852 1,942 2,031 2,125 2,223 2,326 2,434 2,546 2,664 2,787 2,916 3,050 3,191 3,339 3,493 Mindanao grid needs a total additional capacity of 2,500 MW onwards to 2030
RE RESOURCES Geothermal Resource 1,200 MW Hydropower -10,500 MW Wind resources 76,600 MW Micro-hydro untapped vast potential Solar Energy Average potential 5kWh/m 2 /day Ocean energy - 170,000 MW Biomass (bagasse) total potential of 235.7 MW
Part 2 RE ROADMAP
RE ROADMAP (2010 2030) ENSURING STABLE AND QUALITY SUPPLY OF ENERGY Intensify RE Development and Utilization 2008 1 RE Law, RE Subsidiary, Technology Roadmap & One-stop shop 2010 Small capacity RE projects are added to the grid; big RE projects are in the pipeline 2015 2020 2030 Emergence of ocean energy projects, e.g. OTEC, wave, marine current and tidal Commerciali- zation of ocean energy technologies 2 3 4 5 IMPROVE RE POLICIES AND PROGRAMS DOUBLE RE CAPACITY (5,300 MW)
Part 3 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
REPUBLIC ACT 9513 Renewable Energy Act of 2008 AN ACT PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT, UTILIZATION AND COMMERCIALIZATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES AND FOR OTHER PURPOSES
OBJECTIVES Fiscal incentives Non-fiscal incentives Institutional support
RE Developers (New & Existing) RE Suppliers, Fabricators, Manufacturers 7 year Income Tax Holiday (ITH) 7 year Income Tax Holiday (ITH) 10 year Duty-free Importation of RE Machinery, Equipment and Materials 1.5% Special Realty Tax Rates on Equipment and Machinery FISCAL INCENTIVES 10 year Tax and Duty-free Importation of Components, Parts and Materials 7 year Net Operating Loss Carry-Over 10 % Corporate Tax Rate after ITH Accelerated Depreciation Zero Percent Value-Added Tax Rate Cash Incentive of Renewable Energy Developers for Missionary Electrification Tax Exemption of Carbon Credits 100% Tax Credit on Domestic Capital Equipment and Services Exemption from the Universal Charge Payment of Transmission Charge Hybrid and Cogeneration Systems Zero-rated value added tax transactions 100% Tax Credit on Domestic Capital Components, Parts and Materials Financial Assistance program
FISCAL INCENTIVES Incentives for Farmers Engaged in the Plantation of Biomass Resources Duty-free importation and be exempted from Value- Added Tax (VAT) on all types of agricultural inputs, equipment and machinery Tax Rebate for Purchase of RE Components
NON-FISCAL INCENTIVES Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) refers to a market-based policy that requires electricity suppliers to source an agreed portion of their energy supply from eligible RE resources; Feed-In Tariff System refers to price premium for the wind, solar, ocean, run- of-river hydropower and biomass generated electricity;
NON-FISCAL INCENTIVES Green Energy Option to establish a program which provides the end-users the option to choose RE resources as their sources of energy; Net Metering for Renewable Energy refers to a system, appropriate for distributed generation, in which a distribution grid user has a two- way connection to the grid and is only charged for his net electricity consumption and is credited for any overall contribution to the electricity grid;
INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT National Renewable Energy Board Renewable Energy Management Bureau RE Trust Fund Financial Assistance Program
Awarded Projects RESOURCE NO. OF PROJECT Biomass 16 (26 Developers) Geothermal 21 (11 Developers) CAPACITY (MW) ESTIMATED COST* (Million US$) 166 63.50 2,579 12,146.14 Solar 1 1 0.023 Hydro 126 (32 Developers) Ocean 3 (2 Developers) Wind 44 (8 Developers) 937 434.01 11 8.39 921 10.25 Total 211 4,615 12,662.313 * - Pre-development cost
Pending Applications RESOURCE NO. OF PROJECT CAPACITY (MW) Biomass 19 (15 Developers) Geothermal 18 (7 Developers) Solar 33 (6 Developers) Hydro 32 (4 Developers) 203 201 180 1,854 Ocean - - Wind 63 (21 Developers) 1,144 Total 139 3,582
WAY FORWARD Development of guidelines for the following mechanisms: Renewable Portfolio Standard Net metering RE Trust Fund Feed-in Tariff Rates
PROPOSED FIT RATES RESOURCE US$/kWH FIT RATES PhP/kWH INSTALLATION TARGET (MW) Solar PV (ground mounted) 0.42 17.95 100 Wind (on-shore) 0.24 10.37 220 Run-of of-river hydro 0.14 6.15 250 Ocean (OTEC) 0.41 17.65 10 Biomass 0.16 7.00 250
www.doe.gov.ph fort_sibayan@yahoo.com fsibayan@doe.gov.ph FORTUNATO S. SIBAYAN FORTUNATO S. SIBAYAN Chief Solar & Wind Energy Management Division Department of Energy Energy Center, Merritt Road, Fort Bonifacio Taguig City, Metro Manila Trunkline: (+632) 479-2900 local 310 Telefax : (+632) 840-1817