Housing Market Update Greater Moncton Housing market intelligence you can count on
Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook
Employed/Labour Force (000 s) Unemployment Rate (%) Total Employment, Labour Force (000 s) and Unemployment Rate (%) Moncton CMA 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Employment Labour Force Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Annual Employment Growth 10% Moncton CMA 8% 7.4% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2.2% 1.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% -0.6% 4.5% 1.6% -3.2% 0.3% 4.3% -2.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD Average Annual Increase (2001-2012) 1.7% Employed 2012 74,200 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Annual Employment Change by Age Group Year-to-Date 2013 vs. 2012 Moncton CMA 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% 0.9% 2.3% -16% -20% -18.9% Year-to-date = January to October -24% 15-24 25-44 45-64 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Annual Employment Change by Employment Type Year-to-Date 2013 vs. 2012 Moncton CMA 8% 6% 4% 3.9% 2% 0% -2% -4% -3.0% -6% -8% Full-Time Year-to-date = January to October Part-Time Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Provincial Migration to Alberta Alberta continues to attract people from New Brunswick Most of the people leaving are under 45 years of age 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000 Migration slowed during the 2008/2009 recession -2,500-3,000 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Net Migration 2002-2011 Total In-Migration: 2002-2011 66,510 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Net Migration 2002-2011 Total In-Migration: 2002-2011 66,510 Total Out-Migration: 2002-2011 50,757 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Net Migration 2002-2011 Total In-Migration: 2002-2011 66,510 Total Out-Migration: 2002-2011 50,757 Net Population Gain 15,753 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Net Migration by County 2006-2011 10,000 8,723 8,000 6,000 4,791 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000-2,745-6,000 Only 2 counties recorded significant Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data positive net-migration Largest inflows of people were to the Moncton and Fredericton areas
3,500 International Migration by County 2006-2011 3,000 2,839 2,500 2,000 1,500 2,303 1,725 York County recorded the largest inflow of international migration 1,000 500 0-500 426 616 The inflow of international migrants is centered around the areas with universities Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Percentage Share - International Migration 2002-2011 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 7.2% 13.8% 25.4% 18.1% 22.0% 29.1% 20.4% 31.6% 26.4% 42.8% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Net Migration Greater Moncton (Westmorland County) 2,500 Net Gain Since 2000-2001 18,521 2,000 1,500 1,000 Average Annual Gain Since 2000-2001 1,543 500 0 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Net-Migration by Age Group (2000-2011) Greater Moncton (Westmorland County) Total Share by Age Group 0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ 18.5% 25.0% 37.2% 15.1% 4.2% 80.7% 20,000 18,521 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 6,894 3,426 4,628 2,799 774 0-17 Yrs 18-24 Yrs 25-44 Yrs 45-64 Yrs 65 Yrs + Total Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook
Multiple Starts as a Percentage of Total Starts Moncton CMA 100% 2013 YTD = January to August 80% 71.9% 74.6% 60% 40% 34.4% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD Residential construction shifted toward multi-residential units Apartment and semi-detached units account for the change Source: CMHC
Apartment Starts January to September Moncton CMA 600 508 400 200 143 197 354 345 184 321 290 233 260 292 318 87 78 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CMHC
Apartment Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA 100 90 80 70 Avg. Monthly Single Starts (Jan. 1973 - Sept. 2013) Apartment Starts (12 MMA) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Source: CMHC
Apartment Starts as a % of Multiple Starts Moncton CMA 100% 80% 60% 75% 78% 85% 68% 48% 51% 57% 64% 40% 38% 43% 39% 38% 25% 26% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000-2003 2004-2009 2010-2012 Apartments account for most multiple starts - Semi-detached < $150,000 - Mortgage payment comparable to monthly rent Semi-detached units priced above $150,000 Source: CMHC
Rental Market Moncton CMA 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 6.7% 7.8% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 F Monthly Average Under Construction Jan. 2005 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 Sep. 2013 227 576 Source: CMHC
Vacancy Rate by Submarket Moncton CMA 2011 2012 8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 6% 4% 4.3% 4.6% 3.1% 3.6% 2% 0% Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Source: CMHC
Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Unit Type Moncton CMA $1,200 $1,000 2011 2012 $897 $800 $600 $485 $619 $731 $709 $400 $200 $0 Bachelor One Bed Two Bed Three Bed Total Estimate of Average Rent Change 1 Oct 2011 to Oct 2012 One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units 2.5% 1.9% 1.6% Source: CMHC 1 The Percentage Change of Average Rent is a measure of the market movement, and is based on those structures that were common to the survey sample for both years.
Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Submarket Moncton CMA $800 The average rent was higher in all zones in 2012 $700 2011 2012 $709 $702 $752 $720 $600 The City of Dieppe posted the highest average rent in 2012 $500 $400 Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Source: CMHC
2013/2014 Outlook Rental Market Moncton CMA 2012 2013F % Change 2014F Vacancy Rate 6.7% 8.0% 1.3 pts 9.5% Average Rent (Two Bedroom) $731 $745 + 2% $760 Further increase in the vacancy rate expected in 2013 Expected rent increase in 2013 will range between 1.5% and 2.5% Source and Forecast: CMHC
Semi-Detached Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA 500 460 400 360 300 200 100 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: CMHC 7 th Consecutive year with over 300 semi-detached starts Growth driver during the past decade: Price Average Starts 2005-2012 375
Semi-Detached Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA 70 60 50 Avg. Monthly Semi-Detached Starts (Jan. 1973 - Sept. 2013) Semi-Detached Starts (12 MMA) 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Source: CMHC
Semi-Detached Starts January to September Moncton CMA 500 400 348 300 264 280 254 270 256 294 200 100 72 40 62 112 154 172 142 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CMHC
Single-Detached vs. Semi-Detached Starts Moncton CMA 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Single Semi-Det. 0 2002-2008 Source: CMHC 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD The decline in single starts was offset by rising semi-detached starts 2009-2012 YTD =January to September Both market segments decline due to weakening demand
Semi-Detached Starts by Submarket Moncton CMA 400 350 300 250 200 188 2012 2013 294 150 100 50 0 142 98 66 38 20 18 Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Moncton CMA Source: CMHC
Percentage of Absorbed Semi-Detached Units by Price Range Moncton CMA < $150,000 > $150,000 100% 80% 73% 60% 40% 27% 20% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2013 YTD = January to August Source: CMHC
Percentage of Absorbed Semi-Detached Units by Price Range (January to July 2013) Moncton CMA 100% 80% 69.0% Semi-Detached Unit Monthly Carrying Cost Two Bedroom Unit Average Rent 60% 2008 $846 1 $656 40% 20% 26.8% 2013 $1,208 2 $731 0% Less than $150,000 $150,000 - $200,000 4.2% $200,000 plus 1 Based on $120,000 fixed rate mortgage/25 year amortization, 5 year fixed - posted rate 5.7% + property tax 2 Based on $170,000 fixed rate mortgage/25 year amortization, 5 year fixed - posted rate 5.2 % + property tax Source: CMHC
Semi-Detached Homes Absorbed and Unabsorbed Units (12 month moving average) Moncton CMA 100 80 Unabsorbed Semi-Detached (12 MMA) Absorbed Semi-Detached (12 MMA) 60 40 20 0 Supply of unabsorbed units trending upward in 2013 despite decreased starts due to reduced demand Source: CMHC
Condominium Starts as a Percentage of Multiple Starts Moncton CMA 20% Condominium starts as a percentage of multiple starts remain low in 2013 15% 13% 16% In recent years, condominium starts have been mostly row-type units Source: CMHC 10% 5% 0% 2% 0% 9% 0.3% 1% 6% 4% 8% 2% 6% 0.2% 1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2013 YTD = January to August
2013/2014 Outlook Multiple Starts Moncton CMA 2012 2013F % Change 2014F Multiple Starts 933 650-30% 420 Significant increase in the rental inventory will put upward pressure on the local vacancy rate leading to reduced apartment starts Increased supply of new rental units and rising prices for new semidetached units will likely to result in fewer semi-detached starts Source and Forecast: CMHC
Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook
Single-Detached Starts January to September Moncton CMA 800 700 600 500 400 300 471 439 554 586 568 427 443 496 416 299 344 288 291 200 185 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Single-detached starts trending down since 2003 Source: CMHC
Single-Detached Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA 100 90 80 Avg. Monthly Single Starts (Jan. 1973 - Sept. 2013) Single Starts (12 MMA) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Source: CMHC
Absorbed Inventory Unabsorbed Inventory Single Starts and Unabsorbed Single-Detached Units Moncton CMA 120 100 Single Starts (12 MMA) Unabsorbed (12 MMA) 120 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Source: CMHC
Single Starts by Submarket Moncton CMA 500 400 2012 2013 300 291 200 100 0 185 109 61 48 43 32 22 Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Moncton CMA Source: CMHC
$111,066 $136,366 $143,138 $148,096 $162,589 $168,883 $191,220 $208,653 $217,173 $226,921 $257,320 $276,730 Average New Home Price Moncton CMA $350,000 $300,000 $291,990 $322,910 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 2013 YTD = January to September Annual Increase 10Year Average + 7.5% Average Two Storey (2012) $333,419 Source: CMHC
Average New Home Price Moncton CMA $350,000 $324,487 $300,000 $250,000 $322,910 $267,304 $200,000 $150,000 Moncton Fredericton Saint John $100,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 YTD 2013 YTD = January to September Source: CMHC
2013/2014 Outlook Single Starts Moncton CMA 2012 2013F % Change 2014F Single Starts 364 240-34% 230 The average price of a new home has increased significantly in 2013 Reduced demand will lead to fewer starts in 2013 Source and Forecast: CMHC
Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook
MLS Unit Sales January to September Moncton CMA 400 350 300 Average MLS Sales (Jan. 1981 - Sept. 2013) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (MLS Sales) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Source: CREA
MLS Unit Sales January to September Greater Moncton 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS Sales by Submarket January to September Greater Moncton 3,000 2,500 2012 2013 Year-over-Year Change Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview -3.5% -19.5% +9.3% 2,000 1,500 1,773 1,685 1,000 791 763 500 349 281 215 235 0 Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Town Total Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Average MLS Sale Price Greater Moncton 2011 Average MLS Sale Price $158,561 $180,000 $150,000 $120,000 $159,324 2012 Average MLS Sale Price $158,107 $90,000 $60,000 $30,000 $0 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD YTD = January to October
Annual Price Growth (%) Greater Moncton January to October Greater Moncton Average % Change 2001-2007 12% 10% 9.4% 10.1% 9.7% + 6.8% 8% 8.4% MLS Sales peaked in 2007 Average % Change 2008-2013 2.2% 6% 4% 2% 0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Average MLS Price by Submarket January to September Greater Moncton Year-over-Year Change in Average MLS Sale Price Moncton City +2.3 % Dieppe City + 0.7 % Riverview + 2.2 % $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 2012 2013 $120,000 Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS Sales by Price Range January to September Greater Moncton 2,000 2012 2013 1,500 1,000 500 0 % Share of Total Sales 50.1% 25.9% 11.7% 6.0% 4.9% 1.5% Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Percentage Change in MLS Sales by Price Range January to September Greater Moncton 40% 30% 26.9% 20% 10% 13.0% 0% -10% -2.3% -1.5% -5.7% -3.3% -20% -12.7% -30% Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
New Listings January to October Greater Moncton 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
New Listings (% Change) Greater Moncton January to October Greater Moncton 25% 20% 15% 12.4% 15.5% 18.4% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 5.9% 6.8% 2.3% 1.6% 3.0% 1.8% -1.6% -1.4% -4.7% -10.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Average Days on Market Greater Moncton 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2103 YTD YTD = January to September Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Sales to New Listings Ratio Greater Moncton 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association A sales to new-listings ratio between 40% and 60% generally indicates a BALANCED market.
Resale Market Classification Greater Moncton Current Conditions Resale Market MLS Sales Decreasing Buyer s New Listings Rising Buyer s Sales to New Listings Ratio Decreasing Buyer s Price Growth Slowing Balanced towards Buyer s Days on Market Increasing Balanced towards Buyer s Greater Moncton BUYER S Source: CMHC/Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook
2013 Outlook Annual Transactions New and Existing Home Greater Moncton (Semi-detached + Row + Single-detached + MLS Sales) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 1980-1989 1990-1999 2010-2012 1,273 1,632 3,121 Source : CMHC/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
2013/2014 Outlook Resale Market Moncton CMA 2012 2013F % Change 2014F MLS Sales 2,259 2,150-4.8% 2,050 Average Price $158,106 $156,500-1% $156,000 Moderate decline in existing homes sales expected in both 2013 and 2014 Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Forecast: CMHC
2013/2014 Outlook Residential Housing Starts Moncton CMA 2012 2013F % Change 2014F Total Housing Starts 1,297 890-31% 650 Single Starts 364 240-34% 230 Multiple Starts 933 650-30 % 420 Source and Forecast: CMHC
Thank You Questions? www.cmhc.ca or Call Claude Gautreau at (506) 851-2742