Changes in Travel Behavior Affecting Transit TRB Executive Committee Wednesday, January 10, 2018 Steven E. Polzin, PhD.
Outline What is going on with travel What factors are influencing transit use Critical Issues going forward
U.S. Context and Travel Trends 2015/2014 2016/2015 2017/2016 YTD Months Source U.S. Population 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% - Census Total Employment 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 11 BLS Real GDP 2.9% 1.5% 2.2% 9 BEA (3 rd estimate) Gas Price -29.3% -14.8% 15.0% 11 EIA Registered Cars and Light Trucks 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 12 proj. Hedges Co. Light Vehicle Sales 5.8% 0.1% -1.5% 11 BEA VMT 3.5% 2.8% 1.3% 10 FHWA Public Transit Ridership Amtrak Ridership (FY) -1.0% to -2.2% -2.3% to -1.6% -3.1% 9 APTA and NTD -0.3% 1.9% 2.3% 8 Amtrak Airline Passengers 5.3% 3.9% 3.2% 9 USDOT, BTS
National VMT and VMT per Capita Trend, Moving 12-Month Total, 1990 2016 3,500 8 year reprieve 14,000 Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billion Miles) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billion Miles) VMT per Capita 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 VMT per Capita, Annual 0 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 0
National VMT & GDP Trends National VMT & Household Income of Bottom 80% of US Households VMT (billions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 VMT Total (Billions) GDP in 2016 dollars ($Billions) 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 GDP in Billions of 2016 US Dollars VMT (Billions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 VMT Total (Billions) Household Income of Bottom 80% (2015 $Millions) 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Total Household income of Bottom 80% in Billions 2015
U.S. Transit Ridership and Ridership per Capita 25 200 Annual Ridership, Billions 20 15 10 5 Rides, Billion 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1918 1925 1932 1939 1946 1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 Annual Trips per Capita
U.S. Transit Ridership, Fixed Route, 12-Month Rolling Average 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 Hundreds of Millions 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 JAN08 APR08 JUL08 OCT08 JAN09 APR09 JUL09 OCT09 JAN10 APR10 JUL10 OCT10 JAN11 APR11 JUL11 OCT11 JAN12 APR12 JUL12 OCT12 JAN13 APR13 JUL13 OCT13 JAN14 APR14 JUL14 OCT14 JAN15 APR15 JUL15 OCT15 JAN16 APR16 JUL16 OCT16 JAN17 APR17 JUL17 OCT17
Top 40 UZAs by 2016 Transit Ridership, Change 2014-2016 (Millions) Top 40 urban areas make up 83.9% of U.S. ridership decline from 2014-2016. Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database
Car, truck, or van -- carpooled Public transportation Walked Bicycle Other means Worked at home Declining Carpooling and Growing Work-at-Home Dominate Trends 12% Mode Share, Usual Commute 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9.00% 5.10% 5.00% 2.70% 1.20% 0.60%
Where are We Headed? 2012-2014 Transit ridership near 60 year high Millennials are different We passed peak VMT We are urbanizing and CBD s are thriving Developers embrace transit Strong Referendum success TNC s address firstmile/last-mile issue 2015-2017 Transit ridership loss accelerates in 3 rd year of decline Millennials buy cars and move to suburbs VMT and VMT/Capita continue growth Growth and migration resume historic patterns System conditions, reliability, health care costs, etc. plague transit operators How much will that subway cost? When will Hawaii's rail system open? How is that new streetcar doing? TNC s can cannibalize transit ridership Why do we need transit with CAV? 2018?
Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 1. Demographics and Land-Use 2. Transit Service Quality 3. Competition Supply Demand How much of ridership change is explained by these factors?
Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 1. Demographics and Land-Use Age Geographic Distribution across Metros Geographic Distribution within Metros (within proximity of service?/gentrification) Income Licensure Levels Auto Ownership Poverty Levels (SNAP enrollment) Unemployment Reduced College Student Ridership (APTA report) Core Values
Aging Population has a Negative Impact on Ridership Tirps per person per day Share of trips taken via transit 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.0 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 Age group 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ 2.9% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Age group Persons (Millions) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015 2010 2000 1990 1980 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Migration and Growth are Higher in Low Transit Use Areas Top 10 Largest-Gaining Counties (Numeric Change): July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016 County Population Numeric Change Percent Change Transit Commute Share 2015 Largest-Declining Counties or County Equivalents (Numeric Change): July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016 County Population Numeric Change Percent Change Transit Commute Share 2015 Maricopa County, Arizona Harris County, Texas Clark County, Nevada King County, Washington Tarrant County, Texas Riverside County, California Bexar County, Texas 4,242,997 81,360 1.95 2.3% 4,589,928 56,587 1.25 2.8% 2,155,664 46,375 2.2 4.2% 2,149,970 35,714 1.69 12.6% 2,016,872 35,462 1.79 0.6% 2,387,741 34,849 1.48 1.4% 1,928,680 33,198 1.75 2.6% Cook County, 5,203,499-21,324-0.41 18.8% Illinois Wayne County, 1,749,366-7,696-0.44 2.5% Michigan Baltimore city, 614,664-6,738-1.08 19.6% Maryland Cuyahoga County, 1,249,352-5,673-0.45 5.1% Ohio Suffolk County, 1,492,583-5,320-0.36 6.8% New York Milwaukee County, 951,448-4,866-0.51 6.2% Wisconsin Allegheny County, 1,225,365-3,933-0.32 9.1% Pennsylvania Orange County, 1,314,367 29,503 2.3 3.2% San Juan County, 115,079-3,622-3.05 0.3% Florida New Mexico Dallas County, St. Louis City, 311,404-3,471-1.1 9.7% 2,574,984 29,209 1.15 2.9% Texas Missouri Hillsborough County, 1,376,238 29,161 2.16 1.7% Jefferson County, 114,006-3,254-2.78 0.0% Florida New York Average 3.4% Average 7.8%
Improving Vehicle Availability Coincides with Declining Transit Ridership 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent Change in Transit Ridership and Zero-Vehicle Households from 2005-5% -10% 1.3 million fewer persons lived in zero vehicle households in 2016 than in 2014. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Ridership Percent Change from 2005 Percent Change Zero-Vehicle Households from 2005
Transit Use Correlates with Need-Based Program Participation Percent Change U.S. Transit Ridership and SNAP Enrollment 25% Ridership Percent Change from 2002 20% 15% 10% 5% Ridership Percent Change from 2002 SNAP Users Percent Change from 2002 150% 120% 90% 60% 30% SNAP Users Percent Change from 2002 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0%
Are Core Values that Impact Travel Changing? Do we value autonomy, privacy, flexibility, convenience, etc. more than in the past? Safety Comfort Convenience Money Cost Travel Behavior Time Cost Reliability Flexibility Image Environmental, Social Impact
Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 2. Transit Service Quality Fares (levels, convenience, ease of use) Level of Service (coverage, frequency, hours of operation) Speed (access, wait, in vehicle, transfer, egress)(tolerance for waiting in our immediate gratification culture) Reliability Safety/Security Accident Safety, In-Vehicle/Facility Crime Image Cleanliness Interpersonal Compatibility - Increased homeless/mental ill ridership (APTA report) Status/Persona Environmental Impacts Awareness/Marketing (trip planning, real time information, digital fare payment, etc.) Amenities (Wi-Fi, shelter, convenience retail, etc.)
Average Fare Revenue per Passenger Trip and Passenger Mile (2017 Dollars) Average Fare Revenue $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 per Passenger Trip per Passenger Mile $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 Pre 2014 data from APTA Fact Book, Post 2014 data from NTD
Service Supply 12-Month Rolling Average of U.S. Transit Ridership and Service, Fixed Route Hundreds of Millions (Trips and VRM) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Ridership Service DEC02 APR03 AUG03 DEC03 APR04 AUG04 DEC04 APR05 AUG05 DEC05 APR06 AUG06 DEC06 APR07 AUG07 DEC07 APR08 AUG08 DEC08 APR09 AUG09 DEC09 APR10 AUG10 DEC10 APR11 AUG11 DEC11 APR12 AUG12 DEC12 APR13 AUG13 DEC13 APR14 AUG14 DEC14 APR15 AUG15 DEC15 APR16 AUG16 DEC16 APR17 AUG17
Service Supply Hundreds Hundreds Millions of of Millions Millions (Trips (Trips (Trips and VRM) and and VRM) VRM) 45 3.5 5.0 4045 4.53.0 40 4.0 35 35 2.5 3.5 30 30 3.0 252.0 25 2.5 20 20 1.5 2.0 15 15 1.51.0 10 1.0 10 0.5 5 0.55 0.0 0.0 0 0 12-Month 12-Month Rolling Rolling Average Average of of U.S. of Transit U.S. Transit Ridership Ridership and Service, and Service, Heavy Light Rail Rail 12-Month Rolling Average of U.S. Commuter Transit Ridership Rail and Service, Metro Bus Ridership Ridership Ridership Service Service Service DEC02 MAY03 DEC02 DEC02 OCT03 MAY03 MAY03 MAR04 OCT03 OCT03 MAR04 AUG04 MAR04 AUG04 JAN05 AUG04 JAN05 JUN05 JAN05 JUN05 NOV05 JUN05 NOV05 APR06 NOV05 APR06 SEP06 APR06 SEP06 FEB07 SEP06 FEB07 JUL07 FEB07 JUL07 DEC07 JUL07 DEC07 MAY08 DEC07 MAY08 OCT08 MAY08 OCT08 MAR09 OCT08 MAR09 AUG09 MAR09 AUG09 JAN10 AUG09 JAN10 JUN10 JAN10 JUN10 JUN10 NOV10 NOV10 NOV10 APR11 APR11 APR11 SEP11 SEP11 SEP11 FEB12 FEB12 FEB12 JUL12 JUL12 JUL12 DEC12 DEC12 MAY13 MAY13 OCT13 OCT13 MAR14 MAR14 AUG14 AUG14 JAN15 JAN15 JUN15 JUN15 NOV15 NOV15 APR16 APR16 SEP16 SEP16 FEB17 FEB17 JUL17 JUL17
Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 3. Competition Communication Substitution for Travel Trip making levels (telecommuting, e-commerce, distant learning, online banking etc.) TNC availability/los/price Bike/Bikeshare Auto Cost Fuel Cost Purchase/Lease/Finance Cost Parking Cost/Other Auto Costs Roadway Congestion/Speed
Gas Prices and Transit Ridership, 1994-2016 12,000 $4.00 Unlinked Passenger Trips (Millions) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 U.S. Average Gas Price U.S. Ridership $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Average U.S. Gas Price 2,000 $0.50 0 $0.00 *Inflation adjustment performed using Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator using CPI, UPT for 2015 and 2016 from Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Gas prices from EIA
Key Issues Travel Behavior Ridership trends are context specific and vary significantly across geography/property. The reasons for soft ridership differ across contexts with telecommuting, TNC s, service reliability, auto ownership trends, fares, and other factors having different impacts in different markets. Transit has historically had the lowest mode loyalty (mode of last resort in many contexts). If declining fare revenues and/or dampened public willingness to increase subsidies result from soft ridership, the downward spiral of transit ridership may continue.
Key Issues Travel Behavior Strong employment growth and growing real income could continue to undermine transit dependency and jeopardize ridership. Urban civility may influence future ridership trends. Demographic trends in proximity to transit services (TOD) will influence future ridership. Increasing roadway congestion could favor premium transit services but undermine mixed traffic transit operations. System condition and quality of industry execution may influence ridership.
Key Issues Strategic Is there an inflection point where service becomes more attractive to choice travelers? Ridership Productivity? Accessibility Frequency Speed Density Convenience, etc.
Key Issues Strategic The disconnect between the beneficiaries of transit services and the sources of funding for transit may impede the future financial sustainability of transit. Riders Adjacent Landholders Beneficiaries General Public Funding Sources
Key Issues Strategic Key transportation goals 1. Mobility 2. Economic competitiveness 3. Resource efficiency May be best addressed with multiple Technologies and services Mixes of public and private providers Different pricing and funding strategies Today s modal silos will disappear we won t worry about the future of transit or transit ridership but instead worry about mobility.
Thank You!