Key Humanitarian and Development Trends Mikaela Gavas Centre for Aid and Public Expenditure Christina Bennett Humanitarian Policy Group Overseas Development Institute
The new global context for development and humanitarian assistance: five trends Current strategies Future strategic, organisational and operational choices
I. The new global context for development: five trends
1. The world population is projected to increase by more than 1 billion people by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest population growth. 350% 300% 250% Projections of growth in world population by region, 2015 to 2100 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Sub-Saharan Africa Northern Africa Oceania Northern America Latin America and the Caribbean Asia Europe -50% Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, UN Population Division
2. Africa and Asia are urbanising rapidly. Projections suggest both Africa and Asia will be more urban than rural by 2030. Percentage of population living in urban areas, by year, by region Sub-Saharan Africa 51,6 Northern Africa Asia Oceania Europe 55,9 56,3 71,3 77,0 2030 2015 2000 Latin America and Caribbean Northern America 83,0 84,2 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Source: World Urbanisation Prospects, 2015 Revision, UN Population Division
Millions living under $1.25 per day 3. By 2030, more than 80% of the world s poor will live in SSA and over 60% of extreme poverty will be in fragile countries, mostly in SSA. Number of people living in extreme poverty, millions, by region, fragile and non-fragile 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 Non-Fragile MIC Non-Fragile LIC Fragile MIC Fragile LIC 200 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: ODI (forthcoming); DFID staff projections (2014)
4. Since 2000, there has been a growing interdependence between developed and developing countries which will most likely continue. Comparative growth in developed and developing world Comparative trade in developed and developing world % year-on-year 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Advanced economy imports Advanced economy exports Emerging/Developing economy imports Emerging/Developing economy exports Source: ODI, (forthcoming)
5. The top perceived global risks for the next 18 months and 10 years are global challenges related to conflict and climate change. Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2015, World Economic Forum Note: The percentage indicates the share of respondents who selected the specific global risk among the five risks of highest concern for each time frame.
Conflict Snapshot Sources: HPG Time to Let Go Report (2016)
Displacement Figures As of 2015, the number of refugees in protracted displacement is 14 million More than 75% of all displaced people are now living in urban settings Global humanitarian spending = USD 28 billion in total Sources: HPG 10 Things about Refugees and Displacement Leaflet (2016)
Disasters Snapshot Sources: HPG Time to Let Go Report (2016); The International Disaster Database (2015)
II. Current strategic choices
1. Where did we assist: Fragile, non-fragile, LIC or MIC? 100% 90% 80% 70% Share of bilateral ODA* to selected country groups, 2005-2014 100% 90% 80% 70% Share of multilateral ODA to selected country groups, 2005-2014 Unallocated Non-fragile LDCs and other LICs Non-fragile UMICs 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Non-fragile LMICs Fragile states 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: OECD, CRS * Bilateral donors included are those in the ODI Donor Resilience Index
2. What did we invest in: Human development or economic growth? 80% Share of bilateral ODA* to selected sectors, 2010-2014 Share of multilateral ODA to selected sectors, 2010-2014 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Refugees in Donor Countries Humanitarian Aid Multi-Sector / Cross-Cutting Production Sectors Economic Infrastructure & Services Social Sectors 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: OECD, CRS * Bilateral donors included are those in the ODI Donor Resilience Index
3. How did we channel aid: Bilateral, multilateral, core or earmarked? Composition of gross ODA disbursements, current USD billion, 2013 Source: OECD, Multilateral Aid Report (2015)
USD, millions USD, millions 4. How did we finance development: Concessional or non-concessional? Bilateral* concessional and non-concessional flows, net disbursements 2010-2014 Multilateral concessional and non-concessional flows, net disbursements 2010-2014 155 000 135 000 115 000 95 000 75 000 155 000 135 000 115 000 95 000 75 000 Concessional flows (ODA) Non-concessional flows (OOF) 55 000 55 000 35 000 35 000 15 000 15 000 (5 000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-5 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: OECD, CRS * Bilateral donors included are those in the ODI Donor Resilience Index
III. Future strategic, organisational and operational choices
1. Do we generalise or specialise? Do we identify comparative or competitive advantage? Resources A model of competitive advantage Distinctive Competencies Differentiation Advantage Value creation Capabilities Source: Michael Porter, Generic Strategies: http://www.quickmba.com/strategy/competitive-advantage/
2. Who do we partner with for each challenge? Source: OECD Development Cooperation Report: Making Partnerships Effective Coalitions for Action (2015)
3. How do we work effectively in a joined up way across government? Ministry of Defence Ministry of Foreign Affairs Central Agencies Special Funds Line Ministries Requires a crossgovernment mandate and political championing Requires horizontal accountability processes Requires integrated staffing and resources, shared risks and responsibilities Source: Jenny Baechler, The role of central agencies in whole of government (ODI, forthcoming)
4. How do we organise and equip ourselves to be efficient and effective development agencies? Requires deeper knowledge of country context and engagement with local actors Requires new skills, delivery capabilities and partnerships Requires a restructuring of agency incentives and systems Source: Wild et al (ODI, 2014)
Key Humanitarian and Development Trends