37 th Annual Baseball Pool Congress (completed April 6 th ) April 3, 2017

Transcription

1 37 th Annual Baseball Pool Congress (completed April 6 th ) April 3, 2017 This year the NCAA hoop final was close, but absolutely ruined by overzealous refs, who hogged the spotlight so you didn t miss anything being at Pool. Thanks to all for making it (ahead of time to boot!) especially George, who s wife s Mum has some serious health issues. No weather issues to slow travel; food quality still poor! Also we want to thank Super Sub Henry McInnis, who was contacted at 2 PM ON DRAFT DAY, and was willing to fill in for George on little over 4 hours notice, if George was not able to come up. This despite it being Hen's 67th birthday, and he had his son coming to town!!! Little wonder he is regarded as our "hidden MVP"! Also we bid "bon voyage" to Co Commish Putty as usual he did yeoman work on Big Board, and behind the scenes both before and after the draft, making things run smoothly for ALL owners and his anxiety ridden Co Commish. Amazingly, despite leaving on a family vacation to Oahu and Hawaii on Sunday, he miraculously transformed the Panel's scribblings into the document you are reading. Truly above and beyond the call, given everything else he had to do before departing we all owe him a big THANK YOU! Poolies reasonably content with operations no amendments proposed. Likely to see the motion to freeze (with numerous exemption clauses) protected lists 72 hours prior to draft re appear when eligible in April Protected lists did not have sweeping changes this year, but still adds perhaps unnecessary confusion to members before Waiver Draft. Last year we talked about several terrible teams the rebuilds have taken root in Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Colorado, and Arizona Cincy and Padres will still struggle mightily. In AL Twins and White Sox may be hard pressed to get 70 wins. Money Matters: the average amount for teams to spend rose sharply, up to $1.58/team to $20.84, as Protected List costs fell. More telling was a slight rise in the median amount available, up 40 cents to even $20. The range of $ available from top to bottom returned to $12.30, after last year s bizarro world figure of $22.40, mostly attributable to Josh s experiment. Despite budgeting gaffes by Mike and Jeff F, the average unspent fell to $0.66, and the median unspent only $0.25, 30 cents less than last year. Only Mike, Jeff F, George, and Tron has $1 or more unspent. Total spent on hitting (n=168) was $293.40, pitching (n=112) $ (last year s figures, $ & $ first time P > O, due to Josh factor). Putty big spender at bat (31.10), well ahead of Tron (24.50)! Low spender at plate was Darren (13.20), then Colin (16.50). On hill Darren led way with $26.60, followed by Colin (23.50). Low were Putty (8.40!) and Tron (14.50).

2 Trade Analysis 1. Darren sent Harrison (.40 2), Trumbo (1.80 3), and Salazar (2.50 3) to Tron for Realmuto (1.00 2) and Verlander (3.00 3). On the surface, it looked like Darren had given up too much, especially given Verlander s age, miles on arm. But he got best 2 values in deal, and added a catcher, the position of most scarcity, and Marlins receiver has low contract. X factor is giving up Salazar who if stays healthy could tip scales by himself. On a purely value basis, Harrison attractive, though at a very deep position. 2. Terry sends Villar (2.00 x) and K Herrera (.40 2) to Jeff C for Longoria (1.20 2) and Pujols (2.20 2). Several things incomprehensible here 1) how does Terry give up 2 guys at terrific contracts? 2) if eager to deal Villar (why?), should he have waited to see what other owners would offer, given that by showing him as unprotected, he had at least 7 8 interested but dealt him an hour before draft, before others had arrived, to see what others would offer, 3) if he had no interest in adding Fat Albert to his P list, why bother trading for him, especially when Jeff would have added any of Bradley, Jones, Kemp, or Forsythe to deal. Almost any of these would have been much better protect than Robertson, whom White Sox have been trying to unload for months. To be clear, certainly not saying he should have protected aging Pujols at Jeff gets 2 good protectables even JV on expiring contract was HR 63 SB even with regression, likely 13 HR 50 SB. 3. Jeff C sends Andrus (1.60 2) to Tron for Giles (2.70 2). Both good values, edge to Tron as Andrus has been very dependable; Giles has big upside as closer, but no track record of claiming (and keeping) closer job long term.

3 Waiver Draft Round Pick By Whom Contract From Drop Contract 1 1 Josh Springer Putty 1 2 George Ramos,AJ Shawn 1 3 Mark Estrada Putty Dyson,S 2.00 x 1 4 Jeff C Scherzer Dan 1 5 Colin Lester Mark Piscotty * Darren Carpenter.50 2 Mike Moreland Josh Frazier Colin 2 2 Terry Piscotty * Colin Fowler Jeff C Davis,R 2.00 x Putty 3 1 Josh Davis,C Terry 3 2 Jeff C Duvall 2.00 x Colin Jones,A Mark Pineda Tron Osuna,R Jeff C Ozuna.70 2 Shawn Bradley 2.00 x *Cascaders dropped then added ^ Reverse cascaders taken then dropped (none this year) Most Adds: Most Losses: 4 Jeff C; 3 Josh; 2 Mark 3 Putty, Colin; 2 Shawn None taken by: Dan, Tron, Putty, Jeff F, Shawn, Mike, Pete (!?!) None taken from: Good late protects: Good late unprotects: Why Protect: Why not protect: Why taken: Terry, Darren, Jeff F, Jeff C, George, Pete, Josh Hamels, J Upton, Pederson Duvall, Forsythe, Maybin, Kang, Mig Cabrera, Lamb Rendon, Castro, Robertson, Bautista Carpenter, C Davis, Reddick, McHugh, Iglesias, L Martin Duvall

4 Good Adds: Why not taken: Ramos, Carpenter Cron, I Kennedy, Inciarte, Nola, Allen, L Martin 2016 Midseason Picks Carried Forward: R Davis, Roark, A Diaz, Colome, Hill, Duvall, Fulmer, Villar, Eickhoff, Nunez 2016 Mid season picks that did not even go at auction: Jeffress, Kazmir, M Upton, Tomlin, Travis, S Wright, Tillman, J Gomez, Giovotella 13 total picks over 4 rounds: ( , , , , , , , 09 17, 08 22, 07 12, 06 18; 05 22; 04 14; 03 24) 6 picks in first round, 3 picks in 2 nd, 2 in 3 rd & 4 th Waiver Draft Analysis 1. Josh toned down approach after last year s debacle. Added Pederson (good), K Rod (meh) before Waiver (maybe should have kept L Martin for 50 cents?). 3 selections, all with good power outlook Frazier and Davis reasonably good values, albeit will kill B.A. Maybe AJ Ramos, Carpenter, Allen better? Lost none. 2. Pete like Josh, in same draft spot for second year in a row. Shockingly for a guy who is always amongst most active in Waiver AND having 2 nd overall pick, took NONE! Wisely added Tigers Upton in place of Lamb prior to. His P list was quite solid, so may have been wise to stand pat. Lost none. 3. George De Ped Miggy, likely should have dropped Bautista, given $4.20 price. Could have added either of Iglesias or McHugh, though both have niggling injuries to start season. Good move adding Marlins Ramos, could have done at least 1 more. Lost none. 4. Terry Had to drop suspended Kang. Did keep relatively high priced Castro and Rendon, both at very deep positions, and Robertson, who had 37 saves, but 3.47 ERA bad days ahead. Lost Orioles Davis at reasonable contract. Entered in 2 nd round to grab cascader Piscotty, shedding Fowler, who went unclaimed (and whom TCH bought back at Auction at lower price). 5. Tron wisely de Ped Maybin, not as sure about Zobrist though he is classic better in real ball than fantasy. After adding 4 via trade, added none, lost only enigma Pineda. 6. Mark P list good, Mets Bruce may be questioned over say, Nola? Added hurlers Estrada and Pineda both OK, if not monumental. Dropped relievers Dyson and Osuna, both unclaimed. Did see Lester spirited away, had considered him too $7.00.

5 7. Jeff C Added 3 in trades, so de Ped Forsythe and Kemp both went unclaimed. Went big early for Scherzer (7.00) a fair price, then added 3 mid pack OFs (Rajai, Duvall, Ozuna) dropping Bradley and A Jones surprisingly no one added the latter. 8. Colin De Ped Duvall (wisely) to P Carrasco. Then immediately in Son s footsteps, he too drafted a $7 hurler (Lester) forced De Ping of Piscotty, later taken by Terry. Added no more may regret losing Frazier s HR/RBI combo. 9. Mike questionable move to add Hill, on termination contract which meant Carpenter De Ped subsequently taken with 6 th pick. Did not P him because would have made him full at all 3 corner spots, typically an easy spot to get relatively cheap quality. Could not pull the trigger to take desired Gattis (1.00) because did not want to drop Hill or As. Cabrera. 10. Shawn Smartly added Hamels before Waiver. Added none as did not want to de P Beltre or others. Lost Ramos, Ozuna should have had Gattis go also. 11. Jeff F no movement whatsoever. Mariners Seager a very solid player, but over priced somewhat at $4 may have been able to deal him, or replace with better value (Carpenter?). 12. Darren Smartly upgraded with Carpenter (over Moreland, who I believe will have good year in Beantown). When does Kershaw become over priced? Is he first ever to be in 10 th year of his contract?!? 13. Dan Drafting second to last for consecutive season. Can t knock this P list felt he had to choose between Max and Mad Bum for $ reasons lost the German, but no others. Added none. 14. Putty Another strong P list the big gamble is counting on ex Mariners Walker proving his worth. Keeping him essentially cost him Springer or Estrada (an opportunity cost of others available [Allen]). Added none.

6 Auction Phase $ Available to spend (all had 8 protected) $28.80 Josh; $28.40 Mike; $22.40 Tron, Jeff F; $21.50 Jeff C; $20.90 Mark, $20.50 Putty; $19.50 Terry; $ Pete; $18.10 Dan, Darren; $18.00 George; $17.90 Shawn; $16.50 Colin Average available: $20.84 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Median: $20.00 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Range of money $12.30 quite small ( , , , , ) Average spent on offense: $21.67 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Average spent on pitching: $18.39 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Average unspent: $0.66 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Average hitter cost: $1.81 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Average pitcher cost: $2.30 ( , , , , , , , , , , , , ) Highest priced hitters: protected Trout 6.70 (2016 Donaldson, Tulowitzki 5.00) at Auction Marte 4.20 (2016 Trout 6.70) Highest priced pitchers: protected Kershaw 8.40, (2016 Price 7.80) at Auction Syndergaard 7.80 (2016 Keuchel 7.10) Oldest contracts: Good buys: price?: Bad for use of spot: Kershaw 10 th year, Bumgarner 8 th year Gattis, Vogt, Cano, B Miller, N Walker, Peraza, J Baez, T Turner, Correa, Tm Anderson, Mig Cabrera, Sano, H Perez, Teheran, Liriano, McCullers, Shoemaker, Taillon, I Kennedy, Cobb, C Allen, Iglesias, Oh, Bedrosian, S Gray, Tanaka, McHugh, Wheeler (final 4 IF healthy!) Grandal, Thames, McCutcheon, J Bradley, O Herrera, Broxton, Maybin, Naquin, Heyward, degrom, D Duffy, F Hernandez, Stroman, Wainwright, Pomeranz, Bundy, Treinen and 3 maybees Stanton, C Gonzalez, Strasburg Leon, Bandy, Sandoval, Simmons, Soler, Buchholz, J Zimmerman, Ty Anderson, Montgomery, Cishek

7 Best not taken: B McCann, C Hernandez, Travis, Gyorko, Drury, Owings, Al Escobar, Pujols, Napoli, Bour, J Reyes, Toles, L Martin, Souza, Moss, J Dyson, Iwakuma, Chen, Gsellman, Straily, Richards, S Wright, Musgrove, H Santiago, S Miller, Gregorius Prospects not taken: Bauers, Or Arcia, Y Gurriel, M Smith, Zimmer, Almora, DeLeon, Giolito, A Bradley, Andriese, Neris, Barraclough, I Happ Good gambles?: Renfroe, Dom Santana, Haniger Team Tidbits Most picks Fewest Picks Most Hitters Fewest Hitters Most Starters Fewest Starters Most Relievers Fewest Relievers 14 Cubs, Red Sox 13 Indians, Astros 12 Dodgers, Nationals 11 Yankees, Rangers, Rockies, Mets 2 Padres 5 Twins 6 Angels, Phillies 8 Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, Rockies, Cubs 2 Padres, Phillies 5 Nationals, Jays, Red Sox 4 Indians, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies (!), Giants, Astros, A s, Rays 0 Reds 1 Twins, Angels, Brewers, Marlins 2 Yankees, Indians 0 Braves, Padres, Brewers, Phillies, Rockies, A s, Twins

8 Panel of Experts (see 2016 Post Mortem for evaluation of last year in a word, quite good!) Stanley Cup Playoffs start next week a) make sure you have your Elks pool entries in by April 14 ( hockey pool.html), and b) can we rate our teams in Cup context? We may stop short of picking winner here, but Semi Finalists? 1. Pete As before strong Protected List (henceforth P L) left 9 th most $. Has 3 expensive hitters on P L, so chose not to allot more biggest new spend was Kinsler $1.90, and he totaled only 9 th in total hitting spending. However we think he will be in top 6 at plate, higher if he gets much from Peralta (likely), Brantley (maybe) and Kung Fu Panda (doubtful!), and Perez gets at least 400+ AB. He splurged on the mound buying 5 hurlers, with least expensive being last pick Velasquez at $1.80. All 5 bought from NL, and make him 5 th overall in pitching spending. The staff looks very solid, providing Darvish gets > 175 IP; expect some regression from 2016 rookie star Fulmer. Could lead pool in total pitching. 3 Astros, Tigers, 2 Pirates, Giants, Snakes, Red Sox only 12 teams in total. 7 Latinos. 4 Blue chippers. 20 cents unspent. 2. Mike Does low cost P L have enough quality? Provided biggest bankroll, but as has been the norm, he did not use wisely, leaving massive $3.40 on the table! Was 10 th highest spender both at bat and on mound!? Only has 3 Blue chippers. Offense may be a bit short on power; counting on comebacks from Pollock and Gomez (!?) to provide lots of SB. Despite some years of frustration from Rangers OF, Mike like a moth to a flame when bidding on Gomez starts. Pollock and Braun were big buys at bat; hoping he got a steal in JD Martinez, starting year with broken foot. Offense should be top 4. Pitching staff looked very good early couple of late gaffes may hurt ceded Tribe s Allen to Dan when he had lots of $ left, thinking Betances good consolation no doubt good, and will have lot of K s, good ERA, but you take relievers for Saves first and foremost, and big righty will not get many with Chapman behind him. Also dropped out on Giants Moore despite lots of money, when he was best left Liriano should fill the bill however. Big spend was on Mariners closer. All told should be in Top 4 on mound. Is he closet Jays fan, not likely, but took 3!; 2 Braves, Tigers, Rangers. 10 Latinos, plus 2 other Americans with Spanish heritage. 3. Tron OK P L left big wallet (T 3). Bought 3 hitters at $4 or more (Correa, Abreu, Stanton). But Puig??? Still think Off. will be top 3 material; he was 2 nd high spender at plate. 2 nd least allocated to mound some question marks here. Tanaka is the ultimate inscrutable Oriental who knows if his arm will fall off, or he will have 15 Wins?!? Buccholz may be a disaster in Philly. Can 2 Astros give him 25 W? Expect rebound from Kimbrel, but iffy if Dyson will close all year in Texas. Pitching mid pack. 3 Blue chippers, 7 Latinos. Likes Texas 3 Astros, 2 Rangers. $1.00 unspent. 4. Dan Big time P L (Bryant, Machado, Blackmon, Bumgarner) left T 10 money. Hosmer (2.30) most expensive hitter. Assuming Dahl and Soler only miss few weeks, (and live up to potential), and Tulo doesn t turn 40 this year, offense should be in Top 4. He was 4 th biggest spender at dish. 8 th most spent on hill, with last dime going on Allen, a good buy. Issue here is the Shawn factor why 3 closers, (plus another swing man). Surely will labour for Wins & K s especially if

9 Porcello is closer to 2015 stats than Best can hope for short of stud starter falling to him at mid season, is mid pack in pitching. Spent it all. Quarter Finals 5. Shawn Loaded up on P L (Goldy, Hamels, etc) left 2 nd least money. Orioles CF, Mr Reliable biggest spend at plate. He was 7 th in both O and P spending. Lots to like at bat infield v. good, but a few? s in OF. Should be mid range on offense. 4 southpaws will be key how much time Price will miss, and how effective will he be? Elbow uncertainty lopped $3 off his normal price. Martinez real deal, and bullpen solid, despite Met s 15 game suspension for domestic abuse. Conley could be a bargain, Chatwood at Coors less so, though he does induce ground balls. Top ½ in pitching. 6 Blue chippers, 5 Latinos. 3 Rangers, 2 Mets, Red Sox, and of course Twinkies. Spent it all. 6. Jeff C Curious OF pickups in Waiver saved $, giving 5 th most $. Yanks phenom catcher biggest buy at bat ($2.90); all told T12 in O spending. Good buy on Miggy, and great value in trade add of Villar. Divergent team some all power, no speed; some SB is biggest value, BA may lag. Overall O slightly below mid pack. 3 rd biggest spender on mound, led by 2 Nats aces. Doubtful if 2 Cards will give him 20 W total; and has a Rockie P, who traditionally have been shunned? Great bullpen through trades. Enough W, K s? Pitching should be in top 6. 5 Blue chippers, 6 Latinos. 2 Cards, Nats. Spent it all. 7. Putty Defending Champ has P list to die for (but Walker?); still left 7 th most $. Offense should romp to overall lead again, but pitching staff looks like poor step child this reflects him spending over 75% on hitters. Added Posey and Donaldson to already potent attack; probably won t be hurt by declining McCutcheon, Ellsbury, and embryonic Moncada. Moundsmen another story seemingly has to be in bottom quartile. Maybe Severino will harness potential, Norris will stay healthy, Zimmerman has something left, and young bullpenners up to task (last is reasonably good bet). Can Nats duo give 26+ Wins? 5 Blue chips, all at bat. 5 Latinos. 2 each from Tigers, Angels, Nats, Yanks, and Red Sox. 50 cents left over. 8. George 3 rd least $ after Chapman, Hamilton, Harper, Schwarber, and Bautista (!!?!) owed a lot. Offense 3 rd most expensive but doesn t look scary expected to be below average!?! Murphy, Desmond both will miss at least a month, will Broxton keep CF job in Wisconsin? And will Bird and Healy put up # s? Conversely 3 rd least spent on mound, but awesome bullpen, and potential for W, K IF Rodon, Gray not out long, Cobb and Shoemaker rebound from injuries last year, and Dodgers refugee Cotton succeeds in East Bay. Could be top ½ on mound?? 3 Blue Chippers. 5 Latinos. 3 A s, Rockies; 2 Yankees. $1.10 unspent. 1st Round and Out 9. Mark So so P L (Bruce, Pineda?) left 6 th most $. Unbelievable at corners and great buy on SS Turner, OF buys less inspiring?! Still O can be Top 5, despite almost complete reliance on Turner for SB?! 9 th most spent on mound lots of ciphers here Pineda great stuff, underachiever; Santana no bullpen support; Paxton underachiever in past; Cishek will not close in all

10 likelihood; keys may be Nola & Manaea potential but poor teams. Below average overall, especially with 0 saves. Note I think system has this team over rated? 4 Blue chips. 5 Latinos. 2 Jays, Mariners, 18 teams in total! 70 cents left over. 10. Darren Over $18 invested in pitching on P L; T 10 in $ available. Far and away low spender at dish only spends over $2 at bat were Marte and Buxton. Looks like O will be bottom quartile. Easily biggest spender on mound W, K, ERA all likely good, but no saves, still will be Top 5. Brave and Buc youngsters both could be good. 4 Blue chippers, including both Cy Young winners last year (though somehow Verlander got jobbed, and they gave it to Porcello!). 7 Latinos. Mike loves him, 4 Dodgers, 2 each from Pirates, Braves, Tigers, Cards, and Mariners only has to follow 12 teams! 20 cents left over. 11. Colin Add of Lester ($7) in Waiver left him with least $, rather unfamiliar spot. Spend 2 nd least at bat. Franco and Grandal only > $1.30. How will Thames do after 3 monster years in Korea? (uhh ). 4 OFs may not get regular playing time. Offense likely in bottom quarter. 2 nd biggest spend on mound, should give Top 5 finish good mixture on staff. Duffy big chase at $4.60, but had $ late likewise bid to his max to get Nats presumed closer. 3 Blue chips, 8 Latinos. Purported Blue Jays fan may have swam across Lake Erie took 4 Indians! Also 2 Phils, Brewers. Spent it all. Off to Golf Course 12. Josh low rent P List left fattest wallet. Was mid pack in both O and P spending like his O better should be slightly below average great buys in Cano, Crawford, Cain power may be there, but little speed. Spent on 4 moundsmen $200 million man Greinke may be biggest question mark, with widespread reports of reduced velocity. Can Keuchel get anywhere near 2015 #s? Will Met duo be healthy and productive. Pirate youngster interesting, but tough for this squad to crack Top 10 in pitching. 2 Blue chips, 4 Latinos. 2 each from Mets, Astros, Giants, Tigers. 10 cents left over. 13. Jeff F 3 rd most money, despite expensive P L inclusion of Mariners 3B. Edwin, Bregman, and Phils Herrera, in addition to P list made him 5 th biggest spender at bat, but too many holes (Choo!?, Bandy) to expect even average O. Only 11 th most spent on mound like lefties Urias and Snell, but both may be on IP limits? Less thrilled by O s Bundy, but think Bundy Bandy battery is pretty cool! Watson s role in Bucs pen TBD may be light on Saves. Close to average in overall P. Kluber only Blue chipper. 7 Latinos. Another Bruin lover with 4 baby bears, 2 Indians, Orioles, Astros, A s. $1.70 unspent. 14. Terry Die may have been cast with trade and Waiver Draft gaffes. Had mid range $, but P list not super strong due to high contracts (Castro, Rendon, Robertson). Very low spender (T11) on O, Calhoun ($1.50) biggest spend. Problem is with iffy buys (Leon, 2016 # s buoyed by unsustainably high BABIP, with no history to support it, Simmons, Maybin, Heyward). O likely bottom fifth. Put $ on mound good buys in Miller, Moore, maybe Graveman, but fear King Felix days as ace behind him. Archer a stud if Rays can score. Slightly below average on mound overall. 3 Blue chips, 6 7 Latinos. 3 Angels (?!?), Cards (of course); 2 Rays, Cubs. 30 cents unspent.