Factors Influencing the Propensity to Cycle to Work in Sydney. (Source: Matthew Abbott)

Transcription

1 Factors Influencing the Propensity to Cycle to Work in Sydney (Source: Matthew Abbott) Stuart Ardlie Thesis Project 2007

2 ABSTRACT The bicycle is considered one of the most sustainable forms of transport because of its low energy consumption, health benefits for users, and limited social impacts on others. In addition, the bicycle has the added benefit of being relatively fast over short distances and can provide a reliable form of transportation. However, in Sydney the bicycle is one of the most underutilised forms of transport with only 1% of people cycling each day and only 0.6% of people using a bicycle to commute to work. Little research has been undertaken into the reasons why people do not use bicycles for commuting in Sydney. This thesis addresses this gap in the literature by investigating the factors which are associated with the tendency of people to commute to work by bicycle. This is achieved through a quantitative analysis of the Transport Data Centres Household Travel Survey. From this it was found that commute distance, gender, licence holder and dwelling structure had a high association with commuting cyclists. Finally, the potential policy implications of these findings are discussed. i

3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would firstly like to thank Bruno Parolin who has provided me with invaluable advice throughout the thesis process. I also thank Robert Freestone who helped guide me through the process leading up to the commencement of my thesis. His guidance in Research Design helped direct me towards the cycling topic. Also a big thanks to Emma Ardlie who had to proof read the whole thesis. I would also like to thank my family and friends who have all been very understanding, especially during the last weeks leading up until the thesis due date. Finally, I would like to thank Katherine Mason, my girlfriend, for her love when I was stressed out and when there did not seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel. ii

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page i. Abstract i ii. Acknowledgements ii iii. List of Tables vi iv. List of Figures vii v. List of Abbreviations viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction Problem Statement Thesis Aims and Objectives The Study Thesis Structure 7 CHAPTER TWO: CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND 2.1 Introduction Current Cycling Trends in Sydney Bicycle Ownership Bicycle Travel Purpose of Travel Duration of Travel Age and Gender of Cyclist Bicycle Planning National Context State Context Local Context Stakeholders 21 iii

5 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY Page 3.1 Introduction Household Travel Survey Survey Methodology Review of Methodological Processes Geography Information Systems Observation and Photograph Surveys Revealed Preference and Stated Preference Data Methodology 27 CHAPTER FOUR: FINDINGS 4.1 Introduction Summary Findings Analysis Links between variables Regression Factors associated with the propensity to commute by bicycle in Sydney 49 CHAPTER FIVE: FACTORS INFLUENCING CYCLING 5.1 Introduction Commute distance Gender License holder Dwelling structure Safety / risk Facilities Age 57 iv

6 CHAPTER SIX: POLICY IMPLICATIONS Page 6.1 Introduction Policy planning Designing neighbourhoods (Bike Plans) Education (Bicycle safety education) Bicycle lanes and bicycle paths Monitoring and review Maintaining the current bicycle commuters Duel mode commuting 66 CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUSIONS 7.1 General Overview Research Outcomes Suggestions for Further Research Final Remarks 71 vi. Bibliography 72 vii. Appendices 78 v

7 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Benefits of cycling Table 3.1 Data collected in the HTS Table 4.1 Descriptive statistics of bicycle commuters Table 4.2 Bicycle versus cars Table 4.3 Age versus income Table 4.4 Occupation versus Income Table 4.5 Occupation versus cars Table 4.6 Distance versus time Table 4.7 Distance versus age Table 4.8 Distance versus gender Table 4.9 Work schedule versus age Table 4.10 Age versus number of weekday trips Table 4.11 Gender versus number of weekday trips Table 4.12 Dwelling structure versus number of weekday trips Table 4.13 Vehicle ownership versus number of weekday trips Table 4.14 Multinominal regression with the dependant variable weekday trips Table 4.15 Multinominal regression with the dependant variable commute time Table 4.16 Multinominal regression with the dependant variable commute distance vi

8 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Bicycle ownership Figure 2.2 Bicycle travel Figure 2.3 Purpose of travel Figure 2.4 Duration of travel Figure 2.5 Age and gender of cyclists Figure 2.6 Relationship between governments Figure 4.1 Bicycle commutes: home origin and work destinations Figure 4.2 Vehicle ownership Figure 4.3 Age distribution of sample Figure 4.4 Income Figure 4.5 Occupation Figure 4.6 Work schedule Figure 4.7 Dwelling types Figure 5.1 Walking and cycling catchment around Sydney s railway stations Figure 6.1 Sydney s regional cycle network Figure 6.2 Street patterns and accessibility vii

9 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS TDC Transport Data Centre HTS Household Travel Survey DoP Department of Planning RTA Roads and Traffic Authority Metro Strategy City of Cities: Metropolitan Strategy Draft SEPP 66 Draft State Environmental Planning Policy no. 66 (Integrated Land Use and Transport) AP & A Act Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 GIS Geography Information Systems viii

10 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction The bicycle is one of the most sustainable forms of transport available (Appleton and Gatersleben 2006). It provides health benefits to its users and has a very limited impact on the health of other people. In addition the bicycle has a relatively low level of energy consumption and is considered fast over short distances (Lumsdon and Tolley, 2001). Additional benefits of cycling are highlighted below in Table 1.1. With these benefits alone the bicycle in theory should be one of the most popular forms of transport in Sydney. Table 1.1 Benefits of Bicycling Direct / Details Indirect Benefits Health The physical activity of bicycling has the direct benefits of reducing the risk of heart disease, high blood pressure, obesity and most common forms of diabetes. Indirectly cycling does not affect other users like the gases admitted from vehicles. Harry Rutter (2000) calculated that new cyclists who cycle over short distances can reduce their risk of death by as much as 22%. Fitness Cycling just six kilometres as a commuter can provide an approximate increase in aerobic fitness of up to 17% (Fentem, 1994). Further, the UK s Department of Transport found that even a small amount of cycling can lead to significant gains in fitness (Fentem, 1994). 1

11 Direct / Details Indirect Benefits Social Cycling is a great way to meet people with numerous bike clubs and bike groups across Sydney (Cycling Promotion Fund Website, 24 August 2007). Environmental According to the EPA, motor vehicles are the major sources of urban air pollutants. In Melbourne, their emissions contribute 83 per cent of the carbon monoxide, 41 per cent of hydrocarbons and 63 per cent of nitrogen oxide levels in the air (Cycling Promotion Fund Website, 24 August 2007). Cycling can reduce these figures significantly. Financial The operating costs of a bicycle suitable for commuting and city riding are minimal and bike parking is free. The operating cost of a medium sized car is around $180 per week or 62 cents per km (Cycling Promotion Fund Website, 24 August 2007). Speed The average speed of an experienced cyclist in urban areas is between 15km/h to 20 km/h. Compared to the average speed of a car during peak hour traffic of between 22km/h to 35km/h (Cycling Promotion Fund Website, 24 August 2007). This difference is negligible over short distances. Congestion Bicycles reduce congestion as they physically take up less room on the roads and are capable of fitting through smaller gaps. It is anticipated that congestion will cost Australia $30 billion per annum by 2025 (Public Transport Users Association, 2004). Other benefits Strength, coordination and sustainability. 2

12 In reality however bicycling is one of the most underutilised forms of transport with only 1% of Sydney residents cycling each day (Transport and Population Data Centre, 2003). In relation to cycling being used to commute, within the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region (which includes Newcastle, Sydney and the Illawarra regions), currently only 0.83% of people commute to work by bicycle (Census, 2001). The Transport Data Centre (TDC) put this figure at 0.6% (2003). These statistics provide an interesting insight into bicycling and provide confirmation that cycling has relatively low usage by Sydney commuters. Further it is supported that bicycling has been in decline in most developed countries for many years (Wardman, et al., 2006). It is also widely accepted that in western society this has been as a result of the dominance of the private motor vehicle. At present there has been very little research undertaken into bicycling in Australia, especially with a specific focus on Sydney. Most of the previous traditional research has focused on the areas of accident analysis (eg Triggs et al., 1981; Rodgers, 1994) or the provision of bicycling facilities (eg SBC, 1987; Hawley, 1976) (Nankervis 1999). As such this is an area that requires further research in the form of an analysis of the trends in Sydney. In particular this thesis aims to provide the factors which are associated with people that cycle to work. The ultimate aim is to enable the results to be used for future policy and strategic development within the bicycling sector. Bicycle commuting in Sydney represents a niche market that has the potential for increased growth which could provide benefits to the entire community. 3

13 1.2 Problem Statement There has been a plethora of research into bicycling commuting published over the years, with the key areas of study as follows: Factors which effect cycling (Nankervis, 1999; Plaut, 2005; Page, Tight and Wardman, 2007) Promotion of cycling (Copsey, Dickinson, Hougie & Kingham, 2003; Kunreuther and Noland, 1995) Safety (Noland, 1995; Page, Parkin and Wardman, 2007) Valuing cycling infrastructure (Hopkinson, 1996; Krizek, Levinson and Tilahun, 2007) Review of policy development (Appleton and Gatersleben, 2007) When investigating the situation in Sydney only a small amount of research has been undertaken into any of the areas. The studies that were provided above were all undertaken overseas, except traditionally research has been based in the area of perceived risk and the utilisation of accident data sets to determine the safer modes of transport. As such it can be said that in Sydney the policy development is not largely grounded in theory. An example is, Action for Bikes: Bike Plan 2010 which was developed to satisfy one of the key actions in Action for Transport This fifteen page document provides for the provision of bicycle infrastructure with the theory that if you build it they will come. Little to no reference is made to any literature to support or justify the provision of this infrastructure. The TDC are a NSW government authority within the Ministry of Transport and their role is to assist those involved in transport and land use planning to make informed decisions by providing reliable and up-to-date information on current and future travel patterns and employment and population trends. 4

14 (TDC website, 15 August 2007). The aim of this data is to provide information for the government and private sector for the evaluation of all major transport infrastructure developments, and strategic and service planning in NSW. (TDC website, 15 August 2007). This NSW government agency has one of the key responsibilities of providing detailed analysis of the travel patterns that exist in Sydney. However, the agency undertakes very few detailed evaluations of the data that is collected. Instead the data is simply presented and summarised. This highlights the problem and therefore, the need for further analysis of the TDC s household travel surveys (HTS), especially in relation to bicycling. The TDC has welcomed the idea of further analysis of the data as it will provide increased knowledge for the betterment of the Sydney bicycling community. 1.3 Thesis Aims and Objectives The main aim of this thesis is clear and easily encapsulated by the title, to identify and analyse the factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work in Sydney. This thesis and the problem statement provides for the following aims and objectives to be investigated: Identify the current bicycling trends in Sydney. Outline the current approach to planning for bicycles in Sydney. Review methodological processes that will enable quantitative analysis of bicycling studies. Develop a comprehensive methodology to support the analysis of bicycling as a means to commute. 5

15 Using the methodology, identify the factors which are associated with the propensity of people to use cycling to commute in Sydney. Analysis of the factors which are associated with the propensity of people to use cycling to commute in Sydney. Identify the policy implications of the identified factors. Highlight areas that require further research It is intended that these aims and objectives will be investigated throughout this thesis. These aims and objectives are further detailed throughout this document where they are identifiable under the key chapters and headings. 1.4 The Study The focus of this thesis will be the analysis of data from the TDC s HTS. This data is pooled from 9 waves of the HTS including- 97/98, 98/99, 99/00, 00/01, 01/02, 02/03, 03/04, 04/05, 05/06 and weighted to the June 2005 population. All of the data will relate to people who commute to work by bicycle. A quantitative analysis, using SPSS, will be undertaken on key variables, which were identified by a review of the literature. See Section 3.3 for a list of the variables. The methodology utilised is detailed in Chapter three of this thesis. The analysis of these key variables will determine the association with bicycle commuters in Sydney. 6

16 1.5 Thesis Structure The thesis will follow the structure below: Chapter One: Introduction Broad introduction to the topic, the current problem, thesis aims and objectives, and the study which is to be undertaken. Chapter Two: Contextual Background Provides a theoretical grounding for the research including the current situation in Sydney and the current planning processes in Sydney. Chapter Three: Methodology Develops and justifies the methodology and outlines the methodology that is going to be used. Chapter Four: Results Presents the key factors which were identified as affecting the propensity of people to cycle to work in Sydney. Chapter Five: Factors Influencing Cycling Discussion and expansion on the factors which were identified in the study. Chapter Six: Policy Implications Identifies the implication of the findings of the study on the current cycling policies in force in Sydney. Chapter Seven: Conclusions Concluding comments on the findings of the thesis, assessment of thesis against the aims and objectives and areas for further research. 7

17 CHAPTER TWO: CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND 2.1 Introduction In Sydney cycling accounts for such a small amount of all transport. In regards to cycling as a form of commuting this figure is ever worse. This chapter will provide a contextual background for this thesis and will investigate the current trends for cycling in Sydney with a specific focus on commuting cyclists. This investigation will also provide a general profile of cyclists in Sydney. This chapter will also provide information and a theoretical grounding of how bicycle planning is undertaken in Sydney. This will include a general analysis of the role of government at all levels and who is responsible for which step of the process. Further, the strategic planning for bicycles and the specific examples of the guiding planning documents for cycling will be examined and examples of documents provided. 2.2 Current Cycling Trends in Sydney Bicycle usage in Sydney has been characterised by a small but steady decline from 1999/2000 (TDC, 2003). This trend has continued into 2006 with similar declines experienced in most developed countries (Wardman, et al., 2006). This has been the major trend for cycling in recent years. There is a few exceptions to this such as the Netherlands and Scandinavia where there are high levels of cyclists. The bicycle trends in Sydney will be examined in the following sectors under the key headings. 8

18 2.2.1 Bicycle Ownership In Sydney it has been established that bicycle ownership has outstripped car sales in most recent years (City of Sydney, 2007), with a total of 1.15 million bicycles in Sydney (TDC, 2003). This works out to be approximately 0.8 bicycles per household, with at least 36% of households owning at least 1 bicycle (TDC, 2003) (refer to Figure 2.1). This means that the potential for people to commute by cycle is quite high, with 36% of the population in Sydney owning a bike that they could potentially use. Figure 2.1 Bicycle ownership (Source: TDC 2003, p2) Bicycle Travel In 2000 there was an average of 86,000 bicycle trips made each weekday (Monday Friday) in Sydney, and an average of 116,000 bicycle trips made each weekend day (Saturday or Sunday) (TDC, 2003). There has been a small decrease in bicycle travel on weekdays and an increase on weekend days. Of these trips only 0.6% are trips to work by bicycle (TDC, 2001) (refer 9

19 to Figure 2.2). Figure 2.2 shows the quantum of bicycle trips for all uses, Section below highlights the trip purpose. Figure 2.2 Bicycle travel (Source: TDC 2003, p2) Purpose of Travel In Sydney the most common form of bicycle usage is for social / recreational purposes, with social / recreational purposes more common on the weekends. The second most common usage is commuting to and from work, this accounts for 25% of all bicycle trips on weekdays (TDC, 2003) (refer to Figure 2.3). The purpose of travel calculations are based on the HTS for 1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 to provide an appropriate sample size. 10

20 Figure 2.3 Purpose of Travel (Source: TDC 2003, p2) Duration of Travel Bicycle trips in Sydney average around 17 minutes on weekdays and around 23 minutes on weekends. With approximately one-third of trips for 5 minutes or less. Since 1999 the duration of bicycle travel has increased slightly (TDC, 2003) (refer to Figure 2.4). 11

21 Figure 2.4 Duration of Travel (Source: TDC 2003, p2) Age and Gender of Cyclists The average age of a bicycle user is 26 years, which is low compared to the average age of Sydney residents at 36. In % of bicycle users were male (TDC, 2003) (refer to Figure 2.5). 12

22 Figure 2.5 Age of cyclists (Source: TDC 2003, p3) The characteristics of the cyclists highlighted above provide an overview of the frequency and type of cyclists that currently exist in Sydney. 2.3 Bicycle Planning In NSW bicycle planning takes place at all levels of government, with the majority of planning at the state and local levels. In addition to these levels of government the Australian Bicycle Council s main task is to identify the responsibilities that lie with the various governments of all levels as well as community and industry stakeholders to encourage and facilitate increased cycling in Australia. Their main aim is to get all levels of Government working together to provide for cycling. Figure 2.6 highlights this relationship. Finally, there are a number of other government and non-government organisations, including Bicycle NSW, Pedestrian and Bicycle Transport Institute of Australasia, Premier s Council for Active Living and Ministry of Transport who all have their own agendas and roles to play. 13

23 Figure 2.6 Relationship between governments National Government State Government Australian Bicycle Council Local Government National Context Bicycle planning is undertaken at the national level by AusRoads, which is an association of the Australian and New Zealand road transport and traffic authorities and whose goal is to improve transport outcomes. The eleven members include: Roads and Traffic Authority New South Wales Roads Corporation Victoria Department of Main Roads Queensland Main Roads Western Australia Department for Transport, Energy and Infrastructure South Australia 14

24 Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources Tasmania Department of Planning and Infrastructure Northern Territory Department of Urban Services Australian Capital Territory Australian Department of Transport and Regional Services Australian Local Government Association Transit New Zealand (AusRoads website, 4 September 2007) This organisation is responsible for producing a National cycling strategy which is entitled Australian Cycling: The National Strategy 2005 to This strategy has six priorities, they are: 1. Improve coordination of activities relevant to increased cycling in the appropriate portfolios of Australian, state, territory and local government Provide support from all spheres of government. 2. Include cycling as an essential component in integrated transport and land use planning in all spheres of government Cycling will only increase through integration. 3. Create infrastructure and facilities that support increased cycling Improvements to cycling infrastructure. 4. Enable and encourage safe cycling Through physical road improvements and attitudes towards cyclists. 15

25 5. Provide leadership, and develop partnerships, to support and promote cycling in Australia Social promotion policies, including, National Ride to Work Day. 6. Develop the skills needed to undertake actions that will increase cycling Increase education. (AusRoads, 2005) All of these priorities will provide for cyclists in the future, including, cyclists who commute. At the moment it is unclear how successful the priorities have been as no documented review is available to the public State Context The State Government provides planning for bicycles through the Department of Planning (DoP), Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA), TDC and Ministry of Transport, with each department in theory working together. The State generally provides the high level strategic planning and oversees the provision of high end infrastructure. The State was guided in the past by Action for Transport 2010 and under that, Action for Bikes: Bike Plan The State has started to move away from the action plans and is now focused on the NSW State Plan, City of Cities: Metropolitan Strategy (Metro Strategy) and Draft State Environmental Planning Policy 66 - Integrated Land Use and Transport (Draft SEPP 66). The relevant aims and objectives of these strategies and draft policies are highlighted under the key headings below. 16

26 NSW State Plan The NSW State Plan is a strategic plan that will be used to guide the state government over the next 10 years. The plan itself identified 34 priorities based on community consultation. The priorities are grouped into key areas with the relevant ones to us being transport services and traffic management. Further, the relevant priorities that relate to bicycles are: S6: Increasing share of peak hour journeys on a safe reliable public transport system Aims to reduce car usage and increase public transport including cycling. S7: Safer Roads This includes the physical infrastructure. E5: Jobs Closer to home Provides for the opportunity to commute to work by bicycle. E7: Improve the efficiency of the road network The bicycle has a role to play to achieve this priority. This plan aims to provide for the continued growth of the state including to some extent the growth of cycling. City of Cities: Metropolitan Strategy Generally the Metropolitan Strategy is a broad strategic document that outlines a vision for Sydney over the next 25 years. This means planning for an additional 1.1 million people from As such this strategy provides for: 640,000 new homes, 500,000 more jobs are being planned for over the next 25 to 30 years, 7,500 hectares of extra industrial land if current trends continue, 17

27 6.8 million square metres of additional commercial floor space, and, 3.7 million square metres of additional retail space. (Department of Planning, 2005) More specifically the Metropolitan Strategy is divided into seven subject areas, these Seven Strategies are: 1. Economy and Employment 2. Centres and Corridors 3. Housing 4. Transport 5. Environment and Resources 6. Parks and Public Places 7. Governance and Implementation The Transport strategy contains a number of relevant cycling objectives and initiatives, they are: D2 Improve the existing transport system D2.1 Complete major transport infrastructure projects underway Includes Lane Cove Tunnel with segregated bike and pedestrian paths. D3 Influence travel choices to encourage more sustainable travel This is delivered through Draft SEPP 66 outlined below. 18

28 D3.1 Improve local and regional walking and cycling networks Implemented through a document titled Planning Guidelines for Walking and Cycling. This is the high level strategic planning document which is currently in place to guide development in Sydney over the next 25 years. However, the Housing Industry Association, NCROSS, Property Council of Australia, State Chamber of Commerce, Total Environmental Centre and Unions NSW have rated the transport strategy poor as it Reconfirms existing Commitments, Lack of viable transport options is a serious handbrake on economic activity and liveability and other cities lead in transport provision (Peak Groups, 2006). Draft State Environmental Planning Policy (Integrated Land Use and Transport) This planning policy is one of the guiding policies which aims to integrate desirable transport features into the urban structure, building forms, land use locations, development designs, subdivision and street layouts. This makes it very important to the promotion and integration of cycling. This policy aims to: (a) improving accessibility to housing, employment and services by walking, cycling, and public transport, (b) improving the choice of transport and reducing dependence solely on cars for travel purposes, (c) moderating growth in the demand for travel and the distances travelled, especially by car, (d) supporting the efficient and viable operation of public transport services, (e) providing for the efficient movement of freight. 19

29 (Emphasis added by author, Department of Urban Affairs and Planning, 2001) However, this policy has been in existence for many years as a draft and never gazetted. It has, nevertheless, been given priority at the DoP for gazettal, but the timing is unclear. Although still in Draft the environmental planning instrument is still relevant to new developments with all applications under Section 79C 1aii of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (AP & A Act) required to make an assessment against: any draft environmental planning instrument that is or has been placed on public exhibition and details of which have been notified to the consent authority (1979). The metropolitan strategy above highlights the importance for the Draft SEPP 66 in Objective D3. The policy aims to achieve the aims above by providing provision which will guide: The preparation of draft local environmental plans, The adoption of development control plans and master plans, The consideration of development applications. (Department of Urban Affairs and Planning, 2001) This policy is important as it provides for the assessment of developments in regards to their accessibility, and specifically the improvement of cycling access in local government areas and individual developments. If gazetted and given its full power the benefits to commuting cyclists would be immense. 20

30 2.3.3 Local Context Local governments are responsible for bicycle planning at the local or street level. They are responsible for the development and implementation of cycle strategies which provide aims and targets for cycling in their local government areas. These documents must be consistent with the aims and objectives that the state presents. If any inconsistencies occur the higher plan will prevail. In addition to this the local governments provide the local infrastructure, eg bike racks. The local governments are also part of a bigger process and consult both directly with the public and with the higher government levels. As with all of the levels of government they are guided by the Australian Bicycle Council Stakeholders These groups represent the key stakeholders and organisations that feed into the government bicycle planning process. They are responsible for lobbying the governments at all levels, and influencing government decisions in favour of bicycling. They are usually engaged in the consultation process and always invited to make submissions during the exhibition of any cycling policies or publications. The main group that is responsible for this in NSW is Bicycle NSW. Bicycle NSW play a large advocacy role in providing for cyclists. In particular they are lobbying for: 1. Whole of Government: Encourage 'joined up' thinking with government to address the cross cutting opportunities related to cycling 2. Climate Change: Support community interest in sustainable transport options 3. Transport: Implement a coordinated approach to infrastructure provision & behaviour change 4. Health: Delivery of material reductions in future government spending on the health system 21

31 5. Education: Encourage cycling from an early age 6. Tourism & Regional Economic Development: Accelerate the funding and implementation of infrastructure projects that will benefit regional development in terms of economy and tourism 7. Community: Fund and initiate a research driven approach to improving attitudes and behaviour of all road users 8. Sport & Recreation: Introduce effective planning and coordination of land use to provide increased infrastructure for sport, leisure and recreation 9. Treasury & the Economy: Support the key health and environment policies of the National Reform Agenda 10. Planning: Implement the NSW Bike Plan 2010 with a focus on allocation of resource to areas of emerging and 'latent' demand 11. Government Accountability: Planning and management of progress to ensure the whole community shares in the benefits of cycling Although this does not directly relate to commuting cyclists, these groups definitely have a role to play which benefits all cyclists. Apart from Bicycle NSW there are also a number of other local cycling groups and action groups, but Bicycle NSW is the main player. 22

32 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction This chapter provides the details on the HTS that is going to be used for the analysis of the factors associated with the propensity of people cycling as a means to commute. This chapter also provides a description of the methodology that is used to collect the HTS to provide completeness. This chapter then details and reviews four different methodologies that researchers commonly use when studying bicycles. This review is then used to determine the best methodology for application in this research. Finally, the methodology that is to be used is then explained in detail. 3.1 Household Travel Survey The analysis that is undertaken in this thesis will be based on the HTS. This data is a compilation of the travel behaviour of Sydney residents from 1997 to The HTS is the largest and most comprehensive source of personal travel data for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (TDC, 2007) as well as the longest running travel survey in this country. The Survey itself consists of 5,000 randomly selected households each year and records their travel behaviour. Refer to Appendix 1 for a copy of the survey that is administered Survey Methodology The HTS itself consists of a face-to-face interview survey carried out every day from June to June of each financial year (TDC, 2007). This ensures that the data collect is of a highest quality and that the response rates are high. 23

33 The survey methodology is best explained by the HTS summary report, It provides that: A travel diary is used by each householder to record the details of all travel undertaken for their nominated 24 hour period. An interviewer then interviews each householder to collect the details of each trip. The interviewer records the mode of travel, trip purpose, start and end location, and time of departure and arrival. Vehicle occupancy, toll roads used and parking is recorded for car trips and fare type and cost for public transport trips. Detailed socio-demographic information is also collected on the household. This includes dwelling type, household structure and vehicle details, as well as age, gender, employment status, occupation and income of individual household members (TPDC, 2007). Refer to Table 3.1 for a list of the data which is collected. 24

34 Table 3.1 Data Collected in the HTS (TDC, 2007 p.45) 3.2 Review of Methodological Processes There has been a multitude of studies which have analysed the reasons why people do not cycle. These studies are generally based around a single characteristic, such as safety or risk (R Noland, 1995; M Page, J Parkin and M Wardman, 2007). In each case all of these studies have utilised different methodologies or at least variations on the same. This has resulted in a number of different findings, using a number of justified methodologies. From my research I have determined that there are generally four types of methodologies utilised, specifically the use of geography information systems 25

35 (GIS); mapping and photography; revealed preference and stated preference data and general surveys Geography Information Systems (GIS) This is a quantitative method which traditionally provides an analysis of travel characteristics at the zonal level, although a finer geographic scale can be analysed (Duss and Shaw, 1996). This method was used by Randell and Baetz (2001), Aultman-Hall et al (1997) and Talen (2003). This is not a suitable method in this case as it will not provide the factor associated with people cycling. It can however be used to provide mapping in the form of trip origin and destination maps Observation and Photography This is an observational tool that is generally used as a technique for undertaking case studies in the field (Owens, 1993 and Southworth, 1997). This type of research is valuable, but best undertaken in tandem with other research techniques such as surveys and / or data analysis Surveys The method provides for detailed results by administering a survey which can show the true reflection and opinions of bicyclists. This method has been used by Dickson et al (2003) and Tilahun et al (2007) and provides for detailed results. It should however be noted that bias of the respondents and the selection criteria used can be limitations Revealed Preference and Stated Preference Data This method provides for the opinion of cyclists in terms of their actual preference and stated preference. Stated preference can be administered in a number of ways, but mainly through the use of video clips and pictures to prompt respondents. Influential revealed preference studies include Noland 26

36 and Kunreuther (1995) and Wardman et al (2001) and stated preference studies including Bovy and Bradley (1985) Hopkins and Wardman (1996), Wardmen et al (1997 and 2001) and Parkin et al (2007). 3.3 Methodology The chosen methodology for this thesis will be the use of survey data collected by the TDC in their annual HTS. This data will be analysed using SPSS. GIS mapping will also be used to map origin and zone ID s. The GIS maps will then be analysed to observe any patterns. The principle objective of this study is to identify the factors associated with people who cycle for commuting in Sydney. The key variables to be investigated include: Commuter personal and household variables: Gender Age Income Car ownership Bike ownership Drivers licence Work characteristics: Occupation Work schedule Employer assistance with transport Housing variables: Dwelling structure 27

37 Location and neighbourhood variables: Origin zone ID number Destination zone ID number Commute trip variables: Commute distance Commute time These variables will be examined and analysed to determine which variables are most significant in the use of the bicycle for commuting to work. This will be determined by running a number of multivariate regressions, which will have the ultimate aim of ranking the individual variables based on their statistical significance and relationship with weekday cycling trips. Summary calculations will also be undertaken to provide the descriptive statistics for the data, including details such as the mean, median and standard deviation where relevant. The data will then be graphed and conclusions drawn from observations of the distribution. Finally, cross tabulations will be performed between the variables which were identified as significant in the literature. This methodology should provide a detailed analysis of the variables that are associated and affect the propensity of people to cycle to work in Sydney. 28

38 CHAPTER FOUR: FINDINGS 4.1 Introduction This chapter will present a summary and description of the data from the TDC as well as a summary of the results of the analysis. This will then provide the characteristics of the people who bicycle to work and from that we will be able to determine the areas that could be hypothesised as the reasons why people do not cycle to work. 4.2 Summary Findings The data presented a number of variables which will provide an insight into the people who bicycle to work. Figure 4.1 details the home zones and travel destinations based upon the 2001 census travel zones. A summary of the key characteristics of bicycle commuters is provided in Table 4.1. An expanded summary of each of the variables that were investigated is provided in Appendix 2. 29

39 Figure 4.1 Bicycle commutes: home origin and work destinations Figure 4.1 shows that the commuting cyclists which makeup this sample predominantly made short trips by bicycle to work. However, there were a few exceptions were people travel longer distances to commute and must have utilised multiple modes of transport. This map has also shown that the employment tends to be based within centres with most work destinations located in the Sydney CBD, South Sydney or Parramatta CBD. Another interesting thing to note is that the cyclists live in areas that have many different built forms and densities. Table 4.1 provides a statistical summary of the bicycle commuters. 30

40 Table 4.1 Descriptive statistics of bicycle commuters Bicycle Commuters Number is sample n = 8085 Commuter personal and household variable Male 88% Female 12% Aged % Aged % Aged % Mean (SD) income $28,037 Owning 0 cars 16% Owning 1 car 50% Owning 2 cars 23% Owning 3+ cars 11% Owning 0 bikes 4% Owning 1 bike 42% Owning 2 bikes 36% Owning 3+ bikes 18% Drivers licence 84% No drivers licence 16% Work Characteristics Professionals (occupation) 57% Sales and service (occupation) 16% Construction (occupation) 27% Flexible work schedule 31% Ridged work schedule 69% Employer assistance 26% No employer assistance 74% 31

41 Bicycle Commuters Housing Variables Detached housing 68% Semi-detached housing 13% Unit/flat 19% Commute Trip Variables Mean (SD) commute distance Mean (SD) commute time 9.74 KM 27 Minutes 4.3 Analysis Table 4.1 shows in the personal and household variables section that the bicyclists are predominately male (88%) with only 12% of cyclists being female. This is an expected outcome as gender is important in predicting the choice of modes, due to safety and complex trip patterns (Noland and Kunreuther, 1995). As anticipated the car ownership levels for commuting cyclists is quite low with the majority of people owning only one to two cars or no cars at all (refer to Figure 4.2). This is lower than the Sydney average where households in some council areas are around per dwelling (Kogarah Council website, 5 October 2007). Lack of ownership of a car is more common for bicyclers, even though most of these people live in households that do own at least one car. As hypothesised the bicycle ownership was high with the majority of the bicyclists owning one or more bicycles. Within the sample there were even a few instances where people owned six bicycles. This was expected because to commute by bicycle you have to have a bicycle. Further, bicycles are also very inexpensive to purchase and maintain when compared with car ownership. 32

42 Frequency Frequency Figure 4.2 Vehicle ownership Car Ownership 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Number of Vehciles It was also found that the large number of cyclists commuting to work were in the age group and age group. The average age for the sample worked out to be around 32 years of age. There was also a secondary spike in the age group. The distribution of the age groups is shown in Figure 4.3. Figure 4.3 Age distribution of sample 3,000 2,500 Age Distribution 2,000 1,500 1, > 65 Age (years) 33

43 Frequency The income of the cyclists was perhaps the most interesting, with two real patterns emerging. There appears to be a lower income group formed and a higher income group formed. The highest frequency of people fall into the $ $77,999 income group. This is much higher than the average annual wage in Australia of $39,000 (Salary Survey Australia website, 1 October 2007). The second highest frequency of people falls into the $20,800 - $31,199 income group. This explains the average income for the whole sample of $28,037 per annum. This is very close to the average income in Australia. There were very few respondents recorded in the income brackets between the lower and higher income spikes (refer to Figure 4.4). Figure 4.4 Income 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $1-10,3999 Lower Income $10,400-20,799 $20,800-31,199 Income $31,200-36,399 Income $36,400-41,599 Higher Income $41,600-51,999 $52,000-77,999 > $78,000 Another important variable that is examined is the work characteristics of commuting cyclists. It was found from the analysis that the majority (57%) of commuting cyclists occupations were in the professional or manager category of the sample. This was followed by construction, which includes tradespersons and labourers, at 27% and sales and service, which included production, sales and service workers at 16%. It was surprising to see that the construction occupation had such a high level of commuting cyclists as traditionally the construction sector requires the transportation of tools with the 34

44 Frequency worker as well as the requirement to work on multiple sites which may not be in the same area (refer to Figure 4.5). Figure 4.5 Occupation Occupation Professional Sales and Service Construction Production Occupation The commuting cyclists were examined in terms of the flexibility of their work environments, by examining the hours that they are required to work. It was found that 56% of workers have a fixed work schedule, which was much higher than the variable work schedule at 25% (refer to Figure 4.6). The sample was examined to determine if some form of employer assistance is offered. It was found during the analysis that 26% of work places offered some sort of employer assistance to their workers. Through personal correspondence with Annette Hay of the TDC I found that employer assistance included: Free parking Paid parking costs Company car Paid cost of a car Paid fuel costs Car pooling scheme Paid public transport 35

45 Frequency These schemes would have the opposite affect on promotion of commuting cycling and instead encourage, in particular the use of a private motor vehicles and / or public transport. It would be beneficial if employees were provided with some sort of incentive to commute by bicycle, but these schemes seem to be a long way off in Sydney, as most people embrace the private motor vehicle. Figure 4.6 Work Schedule Work Schedule Rostered Fixed Variable Flexitime Work Schedule Finally, the commuting cyclists housing situation was examined to determine the association of housing types on commuting cyclists. The importance of the integration of land uses was examined in Section of this thesis under the Draft SEPP 66. Also under Section the impact of the Metro Strategy was examined to see its impact on cycling. From an examination of the Metro Strategy, in particular the encouragement of increased densities in existing urban areas, it was expected that the majority of cyclists would live in higher density housing rather than detached housing. This was supported by Plaut (2005) who found that cyclists were more likely to live in increased density housing including flats. However, it was found that the vast majority of commuting cyclists lived in detached dwellings at over 68%. This predominance of detached housing may relate to the location or higher incomes of the cyclists, to the Australian average, as some individuals can 36

46 Frequency afford detached housing in all areas. Refer to Figure 4.7 which shows the categorised dwelling types. From this finding it could be said that the increased densities promoted by the Metro Strategy will not attract cyclists as they tend to live in detached housing. Figure 4.1 highlighted the origin zones of the commuting cyclists. It shows that the location of the detached housing was scattered across Sydney. Much of this detached housing was also located in the traditional higher density areas of Sydney, i.e. the inner west. This shows that the current commuting cyclists live in detached housing right across Sydney. Figure 4.7 Dwelling Types 6000 Dwelling Type Detached Semi-detached Flat / Unit Dwelling Type Links between variables The links between the variables are examined using the cross tabulation method which was outlined in the methodology in Section 3.4. The cross tabulation found that there were significant links between these variables: Bicycles and cars This cross tabulation showed that there is a link between the number of bikes and cars that people own. The main link was that people that did not own a bicycle owned a higher number of 37

47 cars and people that did not own a car owned a higher number of bicycles. This continued through the cross tabulation with car ownership directly correlating with the number of bikes owned. This did start to become less significant when in the higher vehicle and bicycle number categories (refer to Table 4.2). Table 4.2 Bicycle ownership versus car ownership Age and income As expected in was found that commuting cyclist s age determines their income. It was found that the younger cyclists generally earned lower incomes. The middle age groups seemed to earn evenly across all income brackets, with the majority of older cyclists earning in the middle income brackets (refer to Table 4.3). 38

48 Table 4.3 Age versus income Occupation and income The main links that were identified were that people with higher incomes were categorised in the professional and associate professional categories. The tradespersons and labourers seemed to be spread across all income brackets with the majority in the middle income brackets down to the lower income brackets (refer to Table 4.4). 39

49 Table 4.4 Occupation versus Income Occupation and cars The cross tabulation showed that the majority of people (50%) owned one vehicle. In relation to occupation the professional groups, sales and service and transport grouping seem to own anywhere between 0 3 vehicles. The professionals are the largest group of non-car owners. This may be explained by their residential location as young professionals tend to live in the inner city suburbs where good public transport is available with limited car parking (census, 2001). The construction group have the highest levels of car ownership with many owning up to 5 vehicles. They are also the only occupation where people own 6 vehicles (refer to Table 4.5). 40

50 Table 4.5 Occupation versus cars Distance and time As expected the further that people commuted the longer the commute time. This finding was also reflected in a linear regression where 84.6% of distance was explained by time (refer to Table 4.6). 41

51 Table 4.6 Distance versus time Distance and age It was found that generally the younger and older age groups cycle the shortest distances out of all the age groups on a whole. There is no real correlation between distance and age for the age group as they tend to be evenly spread across all commute distances (refer to Table 4.7). Table 4.7 Distance versus age 42

52 Distance and gender It was found that the males tended to cycle longer distances, with a predominance of males cycling between 10 25km. A high number of females travelled between 1 10 km to work (refer to Table 4.8). Table 4.8 Distance versus gender Work schedule and age This cross tabulation showed that there is a link between work schedule and age. It was found that the younger age groups tended to work the variable more flexible work schedules. With the older age groups working more traditional fixed hours. The middle age groups were spread across the different work schedules, but had high numbers of both fixed work schedules and variable work schedules (refer to Table 4.9). 43

53 Table 4.9 Work schedule versus age Age and number of weekday trips The cross tabulation showed that people aged made the highest number of trips each weekday closely followed by year olds (refer to Table 4.10). Table 4.10 Age versus number of weekday trips Gender and number of weekday trips It was found that males made far more cycling trips than females. This is an obvious reflection of the gender split of cyclists, as 88% are male (refer to Table 4.11). Table 4.11 Gender versus number of weekday trips 44

54 Dwelling structure and number of weekday trips The cross tabulation showed that people that lived in detached dwellings made a higher number of weekday trips. This was followed by flats, with people living in semi-detached dwellings making the fewest amount of trips (refer to Table 4.12). Table 4.12 Dwelling structure versus number of weekday trips Vehicle ownership and number of weekday trips The people who owned vehicles made a higher amount of weekday trips than people who did not own a vehicle (refer to Table 4.13). Table 4.13 Vehicle ownership versus number of weekday trips The links identified above have further demonstrated the features of people who commute to work by bicycle. These will be examined further and interpreted in terms of policy implications in the coming chapters Regression A multinominal regression was run on the data to rank the variables in order of significance. The dependant variables that were used were weekday trips (refer to Table 4.14), commute distance (refer to Table 4.15) and commute time (refer to Table 4.16). These were used to determine how important each 45

55 of the independent variables are in terms of the different dependant variables. In each set of analysis the dependant variables were not recalculated as independent variables as this may have corrupted the R 2, as there is such a high relationship between commute distance and time (with a Beta of.846). It is noted that a multinominal regression was used instead of a logit regression as the logit regression did not yield any results that were any more significant. The full expanded tables are provided in Appendix 3. Table 4.14 Multinominal regression with the dependant variable weekday trips Variable Beta (Standardised coefficient) Significance Age Gender Income Licence holder Employer assistance Work schedule Commute distance Commute time Dwelling structure Vehicle ownership Bicycle ownership Dependant variable: Weekday Trips R =.439 R 2 (explained variance) =.193 The regression analysis has shown that the relationship between weekday trips and the independent variables is average to weak with an R value of.439. The adjusted R 2 shows that 19.3% of weekday trips could be explained by the independent variables. The Beta values have shown that the factors which are associated with weekday trips the most are commute distance (.363), gender (-.198), license holder (.155) and dwelling structure (- 46

56 .135). All of these results were statistically significant at the.000 level. This shows that these four variables are the most important factors which are associated with the bicycle for commuting to work in Sydney. Table 4.15 Multinominal regression with the dependant variable commute time Variable Beta (Standardised coefficient) Significance Age Gender Licence holder Employer assistance Work schedule Dwelling structure Vehicle ownership Bicycle ownership Income Dependant variable: Commute time R =.453 R 2 (explained variance) =.205 The regression analysis has shown that the relationship between commute time and the independent variables is average with an R value of.453. The adjusted R 2 shows that 20.5% of commute time is explained by the independent variables. The Beta values have shown that the factors which are associated with commute time the most is income (.306), bicycle ownership (.227) and employee assistance (.192). All of these results were statistically significant at the.000 level. This shows that these three variables are the most important in their association with commute time. 47

57 Table 4.16 Multinominal regression with the dependant variable commute distance Variable Beta (Standardised coefficient) Significance Age Gender Licence holder Employer assistance Work schedule Dwelling structure Vehicle ownership Bicycle ownership Income Dependant variable: Commute distance R =.416 R 2 (explained variance) =.173 The regression analysis has shown that the relationship between commute distance and the independent variables is average to weak with an R value of.416. The adjusted R 2 shows that 17.3% of commute distance is explained by the independent variables. The Beta values have shown that the factors associated with commute distance the most is bicycle ownership (.306), vehicle ownership (-.228), employee assistance (.192) and income (.166). All of these results were statistically significant at the.000 level. This shows that these three variables are the most important in their association with commute distance. 48

58 4.4 Factors associated with the propensity to commute by bicycle in Sydney It has been determined from the analysis provided above that the following factors are the most important in their association with the propensity of people that cycle to work: Commute distance Gender Licence holder Dwelling structure It was also found in the analysis that income, bicycle ownership, vehicle ownership and employee assistance played a role in explaining commute distance and time. Although a significant relationship was observed they will not be examined, but will provide an areas for further research in the future. Although not examined in the analysis above due to the limitations of the data, it can be said, from the literature, that the following additional factors affect cycling, including: Safety / risk Facilities Age As such these factors will be examined in the next chapter with the transport planning policy implications detailed and discussed. 49

59 CHAPTER FIVE: FACTORS INFLUENCING CYCLING 5.1 Introduction This chapter will examine the factors which were identified within the analysis in the previous chapter. It will draw upon the literature and other studies to provide a more detailed justification of the factors associated with commuting cyclists. In addition to this, the factors which were not identified in the analysis but are prevalent in the literature will be included for completeness. 5.2 Commute distance The main factor associated with cycling habits in Sydney is distance. It is widely accepted in Sydney that people will only cycle to commute at an absolute maximum of around 12 km. However, other studies have shown that people with a commute distance less than 9.66km were assumed to have the choice of bicycling (Noland and Kunreuther, 1995). When compared with the average commute distance of the study of 9.74 km it is considered that most of the people had the choice to cycle and did. It is noted that this is a very high average compared to other studies, but this is expected as some commuters in the sample utilised duel modes of transport i.e. bicycle and train. In Sydney the bike shed, which is a tool for mapping cycleability, is applied to see where potential cycling catchments exist. The rule of thumb here is that people will cycle around five minutes to get to a transport hub, i.e. train station or bus stop. This works out to be a catchment area of approximately 1.5 km. However, consideration needs to be made for the efficiency of street patterns on a case sensitive basis, as many streets are not direct and the bike shed needs to be adjusted accordingly. Refer to Figure 5.1 which shows both the walking and cycling catchments around Sydney s railway stations. This map shows that at least in theory a large proportion of Sydney residents have 50

60 direct access to rail based public transport. Further, this bike shed and pedestrian shed would be bigger when you consider the access to bus stops. Figure 5.1 Walking and cycling catchment around Sydney s railway stations (Source: Planning guidelines for walking and cycling) As such it is important to consider commute distance for cyclists when preparing bicycle plans or doing transport planning. The potential for increased commuting cyclists as part of a dual mode commute is vast. 51

61 5.3 Gender The gender of bicyclists has been a factor which has limited the use of bicycles in Sydney. The analysis found that the gender split of cyclists was male 88% to female 12%. This is a very substantial difference between the genders and was reflected in a study by Noland and Kunreuther in 1995 on short-run and long-run policies for increasing bicycle transportation for daily commuter trips. The study shows that women are more constrained by personal security issues than men in respect to transport (Atkins, 1989). Similarly, with respect to cycling safety, Oja et al. (1998) found that fear of accidents limited both cycling and walking commuting in 30% of women compared to 14% of men. Accident statistics, however, show women to have been involved in only slightly more pedestrian and cycling accidents (Dickinson et al., 2003). This means that safety is one of many reasons why less women cycle than men. With that said it is still true that women travel shorter distances then men, yet cycle less and make equal use of cars (Turner and Niemeier, 1997). The shorter commuting by women is attributed to time constraints imposed by more time spent undertaking household and family support activities (Turner and Niemeier, 1997). It has been found in transport studies undertaken by Whaipp and Grieco (1989) and Root and Schintler (1999) that women tend to exhibit more complex trip characteristics than men to undertake the household tasks such as shopping, transporting children to school and sport. As such they are unable or less likely to cycle. This presents another reason for the gender split of cyclists as women present a more complex trip pattern. Therefore, gender plays a huge role as a factor which prevents people from cycling in Sydney. This presents a planning implication as bicycle planning will have to consider gender in future transport planning decisions. 52

62 5.4 Licence holder The third most important factor affecting peoples weekday cycling trips in Sydney is whether they hold a current NSW drivers licence or not. From the survey it was found that 84% of people held a drivers licence. This is not uncommon in Australia with the majority of the population that are able to hold a drivers licence having one. This may be due to the distribution of cities and lack of adequate public transport facilities. This may also be to some extent due to the development of Sydney along historic patterns rather than planned patterns. It could be theorised that the people that do not hold a license would have a higher tendency to cycle as they have limited alternative transport options to choose from. The high proportion of licence holders within the commuting cyclists sample is unexpectedly high. The high number of driver s licences and high level of car ownership means that the cyclists can easily revert to or back to the motor vehicle for their journey to work. This has real policy implications as policies need to be implemented that keep cyclists using their bicycles to commute. This is very similar to the situation of public transport were it is difficult to keep people using public transport over the private motor vehicle. Therefore, licence holders have a high association in affecting the propensity of people to cycle to commute in Sydney. There is also the policy implication in that people need to be retained as bicycle commuters. 5.5 Dwelling structure It was hypothesised that the dwelling structure would be the main factor which is associated with bicycle commuting as this was what was reflected in literature. The literature indicated that commuting cyclists tended to live in higher density housing including flats and units. This sort of development is encouraged in Sydney through the Metro Strategy and Draft SEPP 66 as increased densities and smart growth promotes cycling, walking and public transport use. This theory is supported by Plaut (2005) who found that Walkers and cyclists are more likely to live in smaller housing units and are 53

63 more likely to live in rentals or apartment buildings. He also found that bicyclists tended to live in higher proportions in the central cities of the metropolitan areas, close to commercial properties and apartment buildings. However, it was found that the majority (68%) of commuting cyclists sampled lived in detached housing. This may be due in some respect to the relationship that was found between income, age and detached dwellings i.e. older people have higher incomes and as such they can afford detached houses which traditionally cost more. This finding was a complete contrast to the majority of other studies which have been undertaken overseas and is seen as an important factor in Sydney for affecting the motivation to cycle. This provides an important policy implication as currently the policies in Sydney seem to be counterintuitive toward bicycle planning. With that said policies do have the benefits of providing the potential to target people why live in units and flats as their commuting cycling is so low. This may present the future growth market for commuting cyclists. 5.6 Safety / risk A huge amount of research has been done in the area of perceived risk versus actual risk in cycling. It is a common perception that cycling is a dangerous past time and that the risk outweighs the benefits. Many of the studies have utilised stated preference surveys to determine the different preferences of what forms of cycling facilities are perceived as the safest. While other studies have utilised accident data to determine the actual risks that apply to cyclists. As such many studies believe that this is the number one factor that affects people s propensity to cycle to commute. As such I will detail and discuss some of the key findings that the studies have provided. In a study by Noland and Kunreuther (1995) where short run anti-car policies are compared with long run bicycle promotion policies, it was found that 50% of the total sample (354) surveyed reported that they considered bicycle commuting too dangerous. With 60% saying that there was far too much car traffic to commute by bicycle. They concluded that bicycle risk does seem to 54

64 play a significant role in the decision to commute by bicycle. (Noland and Kunreuther, 1995) There have been other studies which have shown that the risk of an accident is one of the major deterrents to cycling. Henson et al. (1997) found that unpleasantness of traffic, personal security and poor driver behaviour acted as barriers to cycling. Davies et al. (1997) found that aggressive driver behaviour, personal security fears and disregard for the highway code where also deterrents to cycling. Other studies found that stress and danger (Gardner, 1998) and traffic and accidents (Davies and Hartley, 1999) also had an impact. In terms of infrastructure provisions other studies have shown that in order to have a quicker commute cyclists tend to cycle along main roads, the less safer option, rather than the more pleasant cycle paths, despite safety issues (McClintock and Cleary, 1996). With that said, Tilahun et al. (2007) found that people are willing to cycle longer distance to avoid unsafe routes. (Appeleton and Gatersleben, 2007). Even though these two studies contradict each other, it seems to be expected now that a reduction in risk for cyclists is more important and can be at the expense of reducing trip times (Hopkinson and Wardman, 1996). It should be said that if the perceived safety of cycling is increased and the perception of cycling risks reduced without anything actually being done to the facilities, this may result in an increase in fatalities (Noland, 1994). Also if the cycling situation is improved more people will expose themselves to a risk taking activity and be enticed across from safer modes, this will most definitely result in an increase in fatalities (Noland, 1994). However, people are more likely to choose a commute mode that is perceived to be safer. Therefore, when a commute mode is made safer more people will use it for commuting. That is why risk and safety are considered in the literature to be one of the main factors which affect commuting by bicycle. This presents a real policy implication with some sort of education and promotion scheme required to demonstrate that cycling is safer than it is perceived to be. 55

65 5.7 Facilities Cycling facilities including on road, off road and shared cycleways as well as facilities at the destination including bike lockers and showers are a major factor which affects whether people cycle. The facilities which are provided at the destination are particularly important to commuting cyclists. Studies by Dill and Carr (2003), Nelson and Allen (1997) have shown that there is a positive correlation between the number of facilities that are provided and the percentage of people that use bicycling for commuting purposes (Tilahun et al., 2007). The provision of cycle facilities in Australia is generally the job of the RTA, local governments and more so these day s private developers. In relation to the on road facilities it is calculated that cycleways cost approximately 50,000 pounds / km (AUS $112,662 / km) (Shayler et al. 1993) excluding the cost of land. Hopkinson and Wardman (1996) found using a cost benefit analysis that the costs of the segregated cycleways were high, but the benefits exceed the cost of provision. Further, the costs of these cycleways are justified as most cycle schemes can be justified based upon the benefits to current cyclists, even in circumstances of low cycle usage. It is also said that the provision of such cycle infrastructure will have a positive increase on cycle usage and therefore impact positively on the propensity of people to commute by bicycle. The other major part of commuter cycling facilities is destination based. This includes the showers, lockers and change rooms at the destination or workplace. Many studies have been undertaken in this area (Calgary,1993; Copley and Pelz, 1995; Denver, 1993; Guttenplan and Patten, 1995; Mars and Kyriakides, 1986; Sacks, 1994; Taylor and Mahmassani, 1997). All of these studies concluded in some way that the provision of facilities will positively impact upon the propensity of people to cycle, most however, stated or implied that this was unlikely to impact upon the other modes of travel. Therefore, the literature has shown that the provision of cycling facilities is going to impact upon the number of cycle trips that are made. This presents a real policy implication when considering future provision of infrastructure. 56

66 5.8 Age The age of the bicyclists plays a very important role as a determinant of whether people bicycle or not. It was found from the analysis above that proportionately very few people bicycle in the age group and over 45 age group. The lower age group may be explained by access to their first car or longer commutes to study. It may also be explained by the fact that many people in this age group may be unemployed and not in current full time employment. The over 45 age group may potentially be due to reduced energy and mobility with older age or due to perceived status. The higher status may be characterised by increased income as they have progressed through their working life. Age represents a factor as to why people do not cycle, especially in the age group and over 45 age group. Cathy Antonakos found in a keystone study in 1994, that included personal characteristics, that age plays an important role in determining bicycling factors. Amongst other things Cathy Antonakos found that age and cycling experience negatively correlate with commuting cyclists having a preference for bike paths, sidewalks and dirt roads. This means that the older you are the less likely you are to want to use bike paths, sidewalks and dirt roads. She also found that age positively correlates with consideration of convenience for errands in the choice of a commuting bike route. This means that the older you are the more convenient you believe bicycling is for running errands. Finally, the research showed that the older more experienced riders are less concerned about safety and low traffic volumes on roadways. This research has gone a long way to provide information about the stated preferences of existing bicycle riders and therefore the deficiencies that currently exist. This all builds towards the affect that age has on commuting by bicycle. This presents a real policy implication as all ages need to be planned for. 57

67 CHAPTER SIX: POLICY IMPLICATIONS 6.1 Introduction The factors which affect the propensity to cycle in Sydney have a real world impact upon transport planning and in particular bicycle commuting. The characteristics and relationships that have been identified in the previous chapters will provide a further insight into what transport planners should be doing in the future. This chapter will provide recommendations based upon these findings. This will be done in part by drawing upon what is currently being done and providing for improvements to the system. This will ultimately provide a better system which will promote and hopefully increase bicycle commuting in Sydney. Something has to be done as I personally believe that bicycle commuting presents the highest growth market for cycling and has significant environmental benefits. 6.2 Policy planning The only way to plan for bicycles is through a strategic planning process that is integrated with other transport plans. Previously, transport plans have addressed bicycling as a non viable form of transport. Instead of planning for bicycles they tend to prioritise the other modes as more important. When the bicycle is planned for it is generally in the provision of infrastructure, with no real social grounding. As such the importance of cycling is not addressed. Many local councils have developed bicycle plans and maps which have some sort of staging for the implementation and maintenance of cycling facilities. However, these plans always seem to fail to produce results with most people choosing other modes of transport. The evidence to support the failure is in the low number of cyclists. It seems that the best way to move forward is to produce bicycle plans that are based on fact and that have some sort of social grounding. The if we 58

68 build it they will come saying is true to some limit, but we need to get better results. This study has found that most people that commute by cycle live in detached housing. This is ironic as at the moment most cycling or transport policies tend to focus falsely around the fact that people who live in higher density housing are the people who cycle. In their defence they may be focusing on higher density housing residents as this may provide for the most growth. However, there will probably be growth across all segments given there was such low levels to start with. It is recommended that Draft SEPP 66 be gazetted and given its full power under the EP & A Act. Although still a planning consideration in draft form, if it was gazetted it would be mandatory for an assessment to be made against it for larger developments. It would also force local councils to integrate transport considerations into their LEP s and DCP s if they have not already. All Councils should be encouraged to produce a bike plan which specifically addresses the issues which are associated with bicycling in their local area. The physical design guidelines which their plans should follow are provided in Section 6.3 below. These plans should not be bound by the boundary of the Council area and should integrate with surrounding plans. This plan should be modelled in part on the City of Sydney s Cycle Strategy and Action Plan: as it provides a social grounding, aims, targets, key benefits, timing, accountability and review systems. It provides for a holistic approach and not just for the provision of infrastructure. It is also based on quantitative and qualitative research that has been undertaken in the local government area. Therefore, there needs to be an improvement in the strategic planning functions of planning policies for bicycles in order to increase usage, with a real commitment by the relevant authorities. 59

69 6.3 Designing neighbourhoods (Bike Plans) A big part of providing for cycling will be in the style of future neighbourhood designs. There is no reason why all future developments cannot create walkable and cycleable neighbourhoods, so there is at least a chance to cycle. To achieve this there is a number of basic design guidelines that need to be adhered to. They are: Street pattern Enabling maximisation of somebody to cycle the furthest distance within a set amount of time. To achieve this it is recommended that the local street network be highly connected with many intersections. This is best achieved through a modified grid pattern. The benefits of this style of streets are highlighted in Figure 6.2. Mixed uses and neighbourhood centres This again draws upon the benefits that are demonstrated in Draft SEPP (Integrated land use and Transport). This ultimately provides opportunities for people to live close to public transport, work and the shops as well as other services that they may have previously used the car to gain access to. This will provide an increased opportunity to use the bicycle. Local cycling networks These networks need to be integrated into the design of neighbourhoods and not simply added as an afterthought. All streets should have the ability to be cycled along with major roads providing the highest quality infrastructure. These networks should link with surrounding and regional networks. Security and safety Safe cycling networks should be created which integrate with compact development to provide passive surveillance. Wherever possible these facilities should be close to the roadways to take advantage of the lighting and surveillance. Developments should be mixed to provide for active uses at night and all developments should address the streets and not provide blank walls or fences. 60

70 The road reserve The design of streets is important for cycling. Main roads should provide parking as this tends to slow traffic through an area. Local streets should use engineering controls to slow traffic, but not impede cyclists, and be narrow to limit the potential of speeding. Other simple things like bike friendly stormwater covers that do not catch cyclists wheels. Parks and open space Parks should be limited in size in centres as larger parks prevent compactness of cities and this has an affect on cycleability. If required larger spaces should be located in outer areas and linked with direct cycleways. Building and site design Wherever possible ground floor uses should be active. Commercial development should be built on the boundary. Where vehicle crossings are provided these should be designed to limit the speed of vehicles so as not to affect cyclists. (Planning guidelines for walking and cycling, 2004) These guidelines should be adhered to in new developments and across Council policies. Older developments or renovations should also make consideration of their impact on cycle-ability in suburbs. These planning controls when applied will have a large benefit to society and the cycling community. 61

71 Figure 6.2 Street patterns and accessibility (Source: Planning guidelines for walking and cycling) 6.4 Education (Bicycle safety education) It was found that safety and risk concerns were one of the main reasons why people did not cycle. This was particularly important to female cyclists. As such bicycle education and promotions need to be undertaken to educate people about the facts of bicycle safety. The education process is a two way street with both cyclists and other motor users needing to be educated on cycling. The education of cyclists on how to ride safely and competently is an important way to reduce accidents and generate public support for bicycle transportation. The literature found that 50% of people studied noted that it was far too dangerous to commute by bicycle (Noland and Kunreuther, 1995). In reality bicycle commuting is not as dangerous as it is perceived to be, but is still a risk taking activity. Firstly the cyclists, they need to be educated on the proper way to ride for all conditions, traffic and terrain. It is important to note that cyclists are the only legal road users that do not have to take a test or prove their competency and knowledge of the road rules. A good example of a program that is being run is Cycling in The City a City of Sydney pilot program in conjunction with Macquarie Bank and Lend Lease. This program provided cycling proficiency training, bike maintenance training, bicycle NSW membership and equipment to workers who committed to cycling at least 1 day / week for 3 months. The 62

72 results were that most people continued to cycle after the program and all of the participants at least had the capability to continue to cycle. These sorts of programs provide the training for people to cycle and increase cycling perception and use in society. As such they are easily adoptable by all organisations or government departments, as they provide for increased cycling at a minimal cost. It is recommended that this pilot program be adopted as a wider state based program. However, it is important to tailor these programs to the appropriate age level and activity level of each individual as they all have different experiences. Secondly other road users, many road users are uncomfortable with cyclists on the roadway. They are unsure of when to pass cyclists and how much room to give them. As such an education program is needed to inform motorists of what to do when you encounter a cyclist. This sort of promotion would have benefits to both the cyclists and the road users. These sorts of programs can be implemented at the community level at low costs and have many potential benefits. Bicycle education is an important incentive that currently does not exist on a very large scale in Sydney. This provides for an opportunity for bicycle education with an emphasis on providing bicycle safe education, especially for people who use the bicycle to commute to work. This will have a benefit to all users, but especially female cyclists. 6.5 Bicycle lanes and bicycle paths As part of the process of promoting cycling it is important to provide the big ticket infrastructure items. These include the segregated cycleways as well as the on road cycleways. This infrastructure as highlighted before is beneficial and justifiable by existing users. It was shown using a cost benefits analysis that cycleways are more beneficial than costly (Hopkinson, 1996). Currently in Sydney there is an ad-hoc approach to the provision of cycle lanes. Most segregated cycleways have been a result of public private partnerships, eg Lane Cove Tunnel and M7. The on road cycleways seem to be provided by 63

73 the RTA and spread sporadically across council areas. Figure 6.1 shows the current situation in Sydney. Although a quick look at the figures show that many of the cycleways that are drawn just do not exist, i.e. the off road cycleway from Hornsby to the city and many of the off road facilities in western Sydney. It appears as in many local government cycle plans that it is easier to draw the map than to actually provide the infrastructure. Figure 6.1 Sydney s regional cycle network (Source: RTA Sydney Cycleways) Ultimately it is simple, if you build it they will come, as this scale of cycling infrastructure reduces the risks and this is valued the highest by cyclists (Hopkins and Wardman, 1996). The cost seems to be the big issue with government, but cycling infrastructure provides huge benefits to society and just because it is underutilised now does not mean that it will continue in that 64

74 fashion. Further, providing cycle infrastructure to and from economic centres, or linking existing cycle paths to these centres, will provide for an increase in cycling to commute in Sydney. 6.6 Monitoring and review As with all things it is important to monitor and review. In the case of cycling, what is currently being done or the recommendations that this paper makes, may change over time. This thesis has aimed to provide planning implications based upon the finding available to date. All new government policies should engage in public consultation so that everyone has the opportunity to express their opinion. A formal review program will provide for the mechanism for constant improvements. 6.7 Maintaining the current bicycle commuters This is an important policy implication that arises from this study. It is very important to keep the current commuting cyclists using their bicycles to commute. Currently it is very easy for the commuting cyclists to revert to using a private motor vehicle with such high numbers of license holders. This is a similar situation to public transport usage where they try to maintain public transport patronage. The way to keep people on bikes may be through the policy implication provided above, i.e. policy planning, designing neighbourhoods, education and bike lanes and paths. The only other recommendation to add to this list may be for the provision of cycling incentives, where employees are offered some sort of incentive for cycling. This may be monetary or provided by the government through tax exemptions. As such everyone (government and private business) has a role to play for keeping the existing cyclists on their bicycles. 65

75 6.8 Dual mode commuting The factor of commute distance was identified as having the highest association with commuting cyclists. A policy implication that presents itself as a result of commute distance is the promotion of dual mode transport e.g. the use of a bike and train to get to work. Many people simply do not cycle as the distance is too far to use a bicycle. That is where a dual mode transport system would benefit all. To promote this there should be the provision of secure bicycle storage facilities at all train stations and major bus interchanges. This would at least provide the opportunity for somebody to cycle to public transport. Figure 5.1 shows that the cycling catchments around train stations cover most of Sydney. The current situation in Sydney is that currently there are not enough bicycle lockers provided. Figure 6.2 shows the number of bicycle lockers provided within the middle ring of Sydney. The situation is starting to improve through the Secure Bicycle Locker Program which is a Department of Transport initiative managed by Bicycle NSW. This program aims to provide 500 bicycle lockers around transport interchanges where existing demand is high. These sorts of programs should be encouraged as they provide for increased commuting cyclists, especially the potential for a duel commute mode. 66

76 Figure 6.2 Bicycle locker locations showing storage capacity (Source: Planning guidelines for walking and cycling) 67