Understanding National Road Safety Performance Kavi Bhalla, PhD

Transcription

1 Understanding National Road Safety Performance Kavi Bhalla, PhD Assistant Professor Department of International Health Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 1

2 USA Deaths (thousands) History of traffic deaths: UK, USA 6 5 USA UK UK Deaths (thousands)

3 History of traffic death rates: UK, USA USA UK 3 3

4 History of traffic death rates: UK, USA USA UK 4 4

5 History of traffic death rates: UK, USA USA UK 5 5

6 History of traffic death rates: OECD countries 6

7 Why did road deaths rise and fall in OECD countries? Three explanations: 1. Economic determinism 2. Risk transition 3. Paradigm shift & Transition to a policy era 7

8 Why did road deaths rise and fall in OECD countries? Three explanations: 1. Economic determinism* 2. Risk transition 3. Paradigm shift & Transition to a policy era * For a full critique: Bhalla, K. and Mohan, D., 216, Understanding the road safety performance of OECD countries, in Traffic Safety Matters, G. Tiwari, S. Mukherjee, and Mohan D (eds), Taylor and Francis. 8

9 History of traffic death rates: OECD Countries 9

10 Road Death Rates and Income 4 Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on Environmental Kuznets Curve OECD Countries Income, Real GDP per capita (PPP) 1

11 Road Death Rates and Income 4 Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on India (Now) OECD Countries Road death rates will rise until 247! (Kopits & Cropper, World Bank, 25) Environmental Kuznets Curve Income, Real GDP per per capita (PPP) (PPP, $) 11

12 Kuznets Hypothesis: Traffic injury Literature Soderlund N, Zwi, AB. Traffic related mortality in industrialized and less developed countries. Bulletin of the World Health Organization Van Beeck EF, Borsboom GJ, Mackenbach JP. Economic development and traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world, International Journal of Epidemiology. 2;29(3): Kopits E, Cropper M. Traffic fatalities and economic growth. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 25;37(1): Garg N, Hyder A. Exploring the relationship between development and road traffic injuries: a case study from India. The European Journal of Public Health. 25;16(5): Bishai D, Quresh A, James P, Ghaffar A. National road casualties and economic development. Health Economics. 25;15(1): Paulozzi LJ, Ryan GW, Espitia-Hardeman VE, Xi Y. Economic development's effect on road transportrelated mortality among different types of road users: A cross-sectional international study. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 27;39(3): McManus W. The Economics of Road Safety: an International Perspective. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Ann Arbor, MI; 27. Law TH, Noland RB, Evans AW. Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 29;41(2): Grimm M, Treibich C. Determinants of road traffic crash fatalities across Indian states. Health Economics. 212;22(8): Nishitateno S, Burke PJ. The motorcycle Kuznets curve. Journal of Transport Geography. 214;36:

13 Road Death Rates and Income 4 Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on OECD Countries Income, Real GDP per per capita (PPP) (PPP, $) 13

14 Road Death Rates and Income 4 Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on India (Now) OECD Countries Income, Real GDP per per capita (PPP) (PPP, $) 14

15 Vietnam: Motorizing by motorcycles Vietnam : Now Source:

16 Colombia: Motorizing by cars Source: 16

17 Why did road deaths rise and fall in OECD countries? Three explanations: 1. Economic determinism 2. Risk transition* 3. Paradigm shift & Transition to a policy era *Bhalla, K., Ezzati, M., Mahal, A., Salomon, J., & Reich, M. (27). A risk-based method for modeling traffic fatalities. Risk Analysis, 27(1),

18 Imagine a motorizing society Increasing car ownership leads to fewer pedestrians Stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage N-2 Stage N-1 Stage N 18

19 What happens to societal risk? Assumptions: r is the probability that a pedestrian will be killed by a given car car occupants are at negligible (zero) risk Stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage N-2 Stage N-1 Stage N Total r r r r r 5r 19

20 What happens to societal risk? Assumptions: r is the probability that a pedestrian will be killed by a given car car occupants are at negligible (zero) risk Stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage N-2 Stage N-1 Stage N r r 2r r 2r r 2r 4r r 2r 4r 5r Total 5r 8r 8r 5r Rising risk Falling risk 2

21 Historic Data Historic Data Simulation Simulation 21 21

22 Historic Data Historic Data Simulation 1. Risks to car occupants 2. There are always pedestrians 3. Interventions! 4. Other types of vehicles? Simulation 22 22

23 Dealing with mixed-mode motorization Pair-wise risks: scooters are at risk from cars, pedestrians, buses, other scooters environment is a risk-factor 23 23

24 Modeling deaths: in mixed-mode motorization Probability of death: = Prob. of crash x Prob. of death in the event of a crash death car ped = ccar ped. r car ped c car ped = f (# of pedestrians, # of cars, vehicle attributes, driver attributes, roadway infrastructure, systemic attributes) r car ped = f (vehicle attributes, victim attributes, crash conditions, post-crash medical care) 24 24

25 Modeling deaths: in mixed-mode motorization 1. Probability of crash: c veh1 veh2 Assume perfect mixing of modes Bus Car M/cycle Pedestrian c car ped = [K. (Number of cars)*(number of pedestrians)] 25 25

26 victim Modeling deaths: in mixed-mode motorization 2. Probability of death in event of crash: r threat victim Crash Fatality Rate Matrix threat Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment Pedestrian CFR in Motorcycles single Cars Bus.1.9 vehicle.37 Environment N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. crashes N.A. r car bus 26 26

27 victim Crash Fatality Rate matrix threat Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Full model : deaths car ped = [K. # Peds. # Cars]. r car ped 27

28 victim Crash Fatality Rate matrix threat Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Full model : deaths car ped = [K. # Peds. # Cars]. r car ped Realistic Motorization Scenarios 1.High Car Use 2.High Motorcycle Use 28

29 Motorization Scenarios (that are a bit more realistic) High car use High Motorcycle use Include buses: 4% of all trips Each bus trip, requires a pedestrian trip (i.e. there re always a lot of pedestrians around) 29 29

30 Consider 2 Scenarios of Motorization 1. Scenario: High Car Use 1. Scenario: High Motorcycle Use.9 Buses.9 Buses.8.8 Modal Share Cars Modal Share Cars Motorcycles Pedestrians Motorcycles.2.1 Pedestrians Proportion of trips that are motorized Proportion of trips that are motorized 3 3

31 1 9 Total Road Deaths 8 7 Deaths Scenario:High Car Proportion of trips that are motorized 31 31

32 1 9 Total Road Deaths 8 7 Deaths Scenario: High Car Scenario: High Motorcycle Proportion of trips that are motorized 32 32

33 victim Crash Fatality Rate matrix threat Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment Pedestrian Motorcycles Cars Bus Environment N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 33

34 1 9 Total Road Deaths 8 7 Deaths Scenario: High Car Scenario: High Motorcycle Proportion of trips that are motorized 1 9 Scenario:High Car-Use 1 9 Scenario:High Motorcycle-Use 8 Other Pedestrian 8 Other Pedestrian 7 7 Deaths Other Deaths Other 3 2 Pedestrian 3 2 Pedestrian Prop of trips that are motorized Prop of trips that are motorized

35 Why did road deaths rise and fall in OECD countries? Three explanations: 1. Economic determinism 2. Risk transition 3. Paradigm shift & Transition to a policy era* *Work in Progress 35

36 Road Death Rates and Income 4 Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on OECD Countries Income, Real GDP per per capita (PPP) (PPP, $) 36 36

37 Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on Road Death Rates and Income Other OECD Countries USA UK Income, Real GDP per per capita (PPP) (PPP, $) 37 37

38 4 Road Death Rates and Time Road Traffic Death Rate, per 1 popula on Year 38 38

39 What happened in time? Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis éln(dr it ) =a + b 1 gdp it + b 2 gdp 2 it + b 3 urb it + b 4 popdensity it +u i + v t +e it ë ù û age-sex-gps 39

40 What happened in time? Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis éln(dr ë it ) =a + b 1 gdp it + b 2 gdp 2 + b urb + b popdensity +u + v +e ù it 3 it 4 it i t itû age-sex-gps Kuznets Hypothesis Country fixed-effects Time fixed-effects Time-Series Cross-Section Methods following Beck & Katz Lagged dependent variable to account for serial auto-correlation Validation: in-sample & out-of-sample 16 separate models for age- sex- groups 4

41 What happens in time? 1.5 Mortality effects: elderly 1 Coefficient of Time Female Male Age

42 1972 What happens in time? Coefficient of Time Elderly

43 1.5 1 Coefficient of Time 1972 What happens in time? Children Elderly

44 What happens in time? 1 Young women Coefficient of Time Young adults -1.5 Children Elderly

45 Mortality trends in OECD countries Something happened! 45

46 History of road safety in the US s: Road safety is about nut behind the wheel Research: primarily in driver psychology 195s-196s: Road safety: shifts towards biomechanical tolerance of human body Research: shifts towards engineering the vehicle mid 196s: Ralph Nader writes Unsafe at Any Speed ; GM s response causes scandal 1967 US Congress enacts Motor Vehicle Safety Act => NHTSA 197s onwards: Increasing regulation of roads and road users => an era of interventions! 46

47 Mortality trends in OECD countries Paradigm Shift 47

48 Policy history - Sweden 1967 (September): Sweden shifts from left to right hand driving 1968: Sweden established a new authority, the Road Safety Agency 1975: Front seat belts become mandatory 1975: Helmet law for motorcyclists 1976: Driving test for motorcycle 1977: Daytime running lights 1978: Moped helmet 1979: Cycle light in nighttime 1982: All slow moving vehicles shall have a warning sign 1986: Reflectors on cycles (front, back and wheels) 1987: Speed fines increased 1988: mandatory seat belts for children 199: Blood Alcohol Content limit lowered from.5 to.2%; Start trials with automatic speed enforcement 1994: Limit for serious intoxicated:.1 %; Number of random breath tests doubled; Speed limit enforcement by laser. 1995: Median steel wire barriers; (speed limit increased for heavy vehicles) 1996: airbags standard in all new cars; 1997: Vision Zero is taken by Parliament 1998: roadside steel wire barriers 1999: Seat belt law expanded (taxi drivers, lorry occupants); winter tyres mandatory in winter conditions 48 48

49 Deaths per 1 population Policy History: Sweden 1968: New road safety agency established 1975: Front belts and helmet use mandatory 1976: Driving tests for motorcycles 1977: Daytime running lights 1978: Moped helmets required 1979: cycle lights required for night 1982: Signs for slow moving vehicles 1986: Reflectors on cycles Speed fines increased: 1987 mandatory restraints for children: 1988 BAC limits lowered,.5 to.2%: 199 Auto speed enforcement trials: 199 # of random breath tests doubled: 1994 Median steel wire barriers: 1995 Airbags standard in all new vehicles: 1996 Vision Zero is adopted by Parliament: 1997 Roadside steel wire barriers: : winter tires mandatory in winter conditions

50 Deaths per 1 population Policy History: UK Mini roundabouts introduced:1976 Helmet standards: 1977 Hvy veh hours adjusted: 1978 Fog lamps on new vehicles Higher stds for helmets: 198 Braking stds for heavy veh: : Heavy vehicle: driving tests & limits on driving hours 1972: 16 years olds limited to riding mopeds 1974: helmets; vehicle lighting regulations Front belt use mandatory: 1983 New traffic calming regulations: 1993 Speed limit lowered for buses/trucks: 1994 Driving test strengthened: : Spray reducing devices: Trucks 1987: National road safety targets; Slow vehicle amber lights 1991: Highway safety audits; 2 mph zones 1992: 6 mph limiters, trucks 2: New road safety strategy & targets

51 Deaths per 1 population Policy History: Netherlands 1971: Mandatory seat belts in new cars 1972: Mandatory helmets for motorcycles 1974: Speed limits reset; Alc limit set to.5% 1975: Mandatory helmets for mopeds 1976: Rules for children in cars (e.g. forbidden on laps in front) 1977: Heavy vehicles, trailers must have reflective markings 1979: Moped/bike pedal reflectors 1983: 3 km/h zones 5 Vehicle inspections required: 1985 Moped/bike side reflectors: 1987 Rear seatbelts fitted in new cars: 199 Belt use in lorries, vans, car rear seats: : Speed limiters bus & truck

52 Lessons: Poor countries need not wait Paradigm Shift: Birth of institutions 52 52

53 Summary: History of road safety performance The income explanation More cars kill more people road deaths initially rise with income At some income level countries begin to care about the rising death toll and implement policies Road deaths later fall with income The mode shift explanation As people move from being pedestrians to car occupancy, total societal risks rises initially due to threat from cars and later falls as pedestrians are eliminated from the system. The policy era explanation Starting in the 196s, countries established national road safety agencies, gave them legislative teeth. Over successive years, interventions were implemented, compliance was improved, deaths came down. 53

54 Thank You! For more information, please contact: Kavi Bhalla, PhD Assistant Professor, Leon Robertson Faculty Development Chair Department of International Health Johns Hopkins School of Public Health 615 N. Wolfe Street, E8138, Baltimore, Maryland 2125 Phone: , 54