Alaska Sustainable Salmon Fund Statement of Work

Transcription

1 Alaska Sustainable Salmon Fund Statement of Work I. Project Title: Kenai River Smolt Abundance Phase 3 II. Project Number: PCSRF Objective: RM&E III. Principal Investigator Mark Willette, PI ADF&G, Commercial Fisheries Division Kalifornsky Beach Road, Suite B Soldotna, AK Phone: (907) mark.willette@alaska.gov Bill Templin, Co-PI ADF&G, Commercial Fisheries Division Gene Conservation Laboratory 333 Raspberry Rd. Anchorage, AK Phone: (907) bill.templin@alaska.gov IV. Project Period: 5/1/10-3/31/13 V. Project Description 1. Synopsis This project will estimate the abundance of sockeye salmon smolts emigrating from the Kenai and Russian Rivers. Annual sockeye salmon smolt population estimates will be used to build life-history brood tables needed to improve forecasts, evaluate escapement goals, and examine effects of ocean conditions on stock productivity. This project continues work begun in AKSSF projects and (700). Introduction The Kenai River watershed in Southcentral Alaska contains two large, glacially turbid lakes that support the largest sockeye salmon population in upper Cook Inlet (UCI). Sockeye salmon runs to the Kenai River have ranged from 0.6 to 8.6 million over the past 30 years, supporting the largest recreational and commercial fisheries in the region. Alaska salmon fisheries are managed to achieve escapement goals that provide for high sustained yields. Production curves and biological reference points are often estimated using spawner and adult return data. However, much of the variability in adult returns results from density-independent marine survival rates that tend to vary over long time scales, causing spawner abundances to be confounded with ocean productivity. Estimation of production curves using smolt data avoids these confounding effects. The Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon management plan specifies that the Kenai River sockeye salmon run will be managed based on preseason Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 1 of 9 1/30/2013

2 and inseason forecasts of run strength. Preseason forecasts for Kenai River sockeye salmon have generally been based on either sibling relationships or the estimated abundance of juvenile sockeye salmon rearing in Kenai and Skilak Lakes in the fall. Errors in sibling model forecasts likely result from variable age at maturity, while errors in fall-fry model forecasts likely result from variable over-winter and marine survival. Annual estimates of smolt abundance and size should improve preseason forecast accuracy, because abundance is estimated after overwinter mortality has occurred, and smolt size is directly related to marine survival. Annual smolt abundance estimates will also be used to validate bioenergetics model predictions of over-winter mortality. Variable over-winter survival of juvenile sockeye salmon in this system is likely caused by the relatively small size and poor condition of juveniles rearing in Skilak Lake. Since 1985, ADF&G has annually estimated the abundance and size of juvenile sockeye salmon rearing in Kenai and Skilak Lakes. These studies have determined that the majority of sockeye salmon in the watershed rear in Skilak Lake, and that their growth is density dependent. Measurements of fall lipid content of juvenile sockeye salmon in Skilak Lake indicated that energy reserves of some individuals was likely not sufficient for their survival until spring. Development of a bioenergetics model to predict over-winter mortality of juvenile sockeye salmon could be used to help set escapement goals. This project will also estimate the abundance of sockeye salmon smolts emigrating from the Russian River. Annual smolt abundance estimates from this system could be used to help set escapement goals. Coupled with a recent study estimating the total return of Russian River sockeye salmon, this project could provide preseason forecasts of stock abundance. 2. AKSSF Objective Central: 2A-4 VI. Objectives 1. Project Objectives Objective 1: Estimate the population size of sockeye salmon smolt emigrating from the Russian River watershed using mark-recapture methods. Objective 2: Estimate the population size of sockeye salmon smolt emigrating from the Kenai River watershed using a genetic-based mark-recapture method. Objective 3: Estimate the size and age composition of sockeye salmon smolts emigrating from the Russian and Kenai Rivers. 2. Methods Two methods will be used to estimate the population size of sockeye salmon smolts emigrating from the Kenai River watershed: (1) a modified Peterson estimator using Russian River stock as a genetic mark, and (2) a modified Peterson estimator using dye-marked smolts. The first method will utilize Russian River sockeye salmon as a genetic mark to estimate the abundance of sockeye salmon smolts emigrating from the Kenai River using mark-recapture techniques. Using genetic allozyme analyses, one study concluded that Russian River sockeye salmon spawning above the falls could be identified in mixed-stock samples with 99% confidence (Seeb et al. 2000). Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 2 of 9 1/30/2013

3 More recent analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms indicate that Russian River sockeye salmon can be identified with classification accuracies approaching 100%, a level sufficient for use in mark-recapture experiments. Use of a genetic mark in a mark-recapture experiment substantially increases the efficacy of the method, because use of an intrinsic mark eliminates any concerns about tag loss, tagging-induced mortality, or other handling effects that may affect recapture probabilities. For the genetic-based method, the number of marked smolts (i.e. Russian River stock) in the experiment will be estimated using inclined-plane traps operated in the Russian River. The marked fraction in the total population of smolts emigrating from the Kenai River will then be estimated from tissue samples taken from smolts captured using inclined-plane traps near the Kenai Keys. A modified Peterson estimator will also be used to estimate the smolt population emigrating from Russian River using standard dye-marking techniques. The size and age composition of Russian and Kenai River sockeye salmon smolts will also be estimated from samples collected each week. Smolt genetic samples collected at the Kenai Keys site will be analyzed at the ADF&G Gene Conservation Laboratory in Anchorage. Smolt sampling will occur from May through June each year. Smolt abundance will also be estimated at the Kenai Keys site using standard dye-marking techniques. This second markrecapture estimate will provide a comparison to the genetic-based estimate allowing evaluation of the accuracy of both methods. At the Russian River site, trap efficiency will be estimated by dye marking and releasing a sample (n=3,000) of sockeye salmon smolts each week. Given that trap efficiencies at this site have averaged about 5%, this sample size will result in a population estimate that is within 15% of the actual abundance 90% of the time. At the Kenai Keys site, trap efficiency will be estimated by dye marking and releasing a sample (n=4,600) of sockeye salmon smolts captured using a fyke net each week. Given that trap efficiencies at this site have averaged about 1%, this sample size will result in a population estimate that is within 25% of the actual abundance 90% of the time. At the Kenai Keys site, the fraction of smolt catches comprised of fish originating from the Russian River will be estimated from a sample (n=300) of smolts collected from the inclined-plane traps in proportion to the catch throughout each week. This sample size will result in a genetic estimate of stock composition that is within 6.5% of the actual proportion 95% of the time. The relative precision of the genetic-based population estimate will be a function of the precision of the Russian River population estimate and the estimate of stock composition at Kenai Keys. At the Russian and Kenai Keys sites, the length and age composition of the sockeye salmon smolt population will be estimated from a sample (n=500) collected from both traps each week. This sample size will result in a length and age composition estimate that is within 5% of the actual composition 90% of the time. Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 3 of 9 1/30/2013

4 This study will also use a simple stratified mark-recapture design to estimate the abundance of sockeye salmon smolts emigrating the from Russian and Kenai rivers. The methods described below will be followed at both sites. At the Russian River, two inclined-plane traps will be operated near the campground from May 1-June 30 each year. Two inclined-plane traps will also be operated near the Kenai Keys on the Kenai River. Inclined-plane traps will be designed as described by Todd (1994) except all dimensions will be increased 1.5 times. These traps have been fished at the Kenai Keys site on the Kenai River from and have provided sufficient catches for mark-recapture experiments with minimal size selectivity. The efficiency of the inclined-plane traps will be estimated from dye-marking experiments conducted each week (beginning Monday nights). A sample of sockeye salmon smolts will be captured using a fyke net (3 m x 2 m) fished upstream of the Kenai Keys site and placed in a live box. The live boxes will be covered to protect the fish from the sun and predators. The following evening, the numbers of live and dead dyed smolts in the live box will be enumerated to estimate handling mortality. Their fork lengths will be measured to the nearest 1 mm, and the fish will be sacrificed, frozen, and shipped to the Gene Conservation Laboratory for later genetic analysis. The entire catch in both traps will be scanned for dye-marked fish beginning immediately after each release of dyed fish (generally Tuesday nights at dusk) and continuing until no further dye-marked fish are caught (generally 2-3 nights). At both sites, a modified Peterson estimator will be used to estimate smolt population size in each weekly stratum (Nh) using standard dye-marking techniques. At the Kenai Keys site, a modified Peterson estimator will also be used to estimate smolt population size using a genetic-based method. Finally, investigators will test for differences in the length and genetic stock composition of sockeye salmon smolt captured in the fyke net and the inclined-plane traps operated at the Kenai Keys, because the fyke net is known to capture larger fish than the inclined-plane trap and Russian River smolt tend to be larger than juveniles rearing in Skilak Lake. Prior to commencement of project activity, PI will obtain ADF&G Fish Collection, Fish Resource, Fish Transport, and/or other required permits, as appropriate. VII. Benefits The results of this project will advance the management of Kenai River sockeye salmon stocks to achieve high sustained yields and more efficient use of the resource in years of high and low abundance. This salmon stock is harvested by commercial, personal use, and sport users each year, benefitting the communities on the Kenai Peninsula as well as others, as the majority of personal use fishermen come from outside the Kenai Peninsula. The salmon products exported by the commercial fishing industry are enjoyed by people throughout the world. Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 4 of 9 1/30/2013

5 VIII. Products, Milestones, and Timelines During the field portion of the project, the status of meeting sampling objectives will be reported to department staff weekly. These reports are solely to provide an indication of progress towards meeting sampling goals and will not contain analyses or interpretations of data collected to date. Site visits to the sampling locations may be conducted, if necessary, and will be coordinated through the project leaders. Project annual reports describing results from activities in the previous fiscal year will be submitted by October 31, The final report will be published as an ADF&G Fishery Data Series Report that will undergo within-department biometric and peer review prior to publication. May 1 June 30, 2010: Conduct field sampling and send genetics samples to laboratory. July 1 Aug. 30, 2010: Data entry, error checking, and database management. Sept. 1 Dec. 31, 2010: Process genetic samples and analyze 2010 data. Dec. 31, 2010: Submit annual report for activities in Jan. 1 April 30, 2011: Hire field crews and purchase supplies for 2011 field season. May 1 June 30, 2011: Conduct field sampling and send genetics samples to laboratory. July 1 Aug. 30, 2011: Data entry, error checking, and database management. Sept. 1 Dec. 31, 2011: Process genetic samples and analyze 2011 data. Dec. 31, 2011: Submit annual report for activities in Jan. 1 April 30, 2012: Hire field crews and purchase supplies for 2012 field season. May 1 June 30, 2012: Conduct field sampling and send genetics samples to laboratory. July 1 Aug. 30, 2012: Data entry, error checking, and database management. Sept. 1 Dec. 31, 2012: Process genetic samples and analyze 2012 data. March 31, 2013: Submit project final report. PI will submit PCSRF performance metrics, semiannual, and project completion reports according to the AKSSF schedule, as well as copies of any other report/product/ deliverable produced with this funding. All invoices will be submitted for payment within 30 days of the project end date in accordance with the current AKSSF invoicing P&P. Any report or product distributed as a result of this funding will include the following language: This [report/video/website] was prepared by [recipient/author name] under award NA09NMF from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, administered by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Commerce, or the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 5 of 9 1/30/2013

6 IX. Partners U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service X. Project Budget FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Total 100 Personnel $135,227 $151,948 $151,948 $16,721 $455, Travel 300 Contractual $0 $2,272 $2,272 $2,272 $6, Supplies $7,990 $81,015 $81,015 $73,025 $243, Equipment Total Direct Costs $143,217 $235,235 $235,235 $92,018 $705,705 ADF&G 3% $21,171 Project Total $726,876 Budget Narrative: Line 100: Personnel Four fishery biologists and 10 fish and wildlife technicians will operate inclined-plane traps at the Russian River and Kenai Keys sites. A fish and wildlife technician III will conduct laboratory analyses to estimate genetic stock composition of smolts. (See details in table below.) Line 300: Contractual Maintenance of laboratory equipment at the Gene Conservation Laboratory and annual repair and maintenance of smolt traps. (See details in table below.) Added with informal revision 5/23/12: vendor contract with Vince Patrick Consulting for the review of juvenile sockeye energetics data: $5,000. Line 400: Supplies Sampling supplies needed at the field camp and disposable supplies, extraction kits, and Fluidyme chips used at the Gene Conservation Laboratory. (See details in table below.) Line Item Description No. 100 Man- Mos. Unit Cost FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Total Fishery Biologist I $5,895 $13,264 $13,264 $13,264 $0 $39,792 Fishery Biologist I $5,509 $12,395 $12,395 $12,395 $0 $37,185 Fish & Wildlife Tech III $5,126 $11,534 $11,534 $11,534 $0 $34,602 Fish & Wildlife Tech II ,025 $81,506 $81,506 $81,506 $0 $244,518 Fishery Biologist I $5,509 $8,264 $8,264 $8,264 $0 $24,792 Fishery Biologist I $5,509 $8,264 $8,264 $8,264 $0 $24,792 Fish & $5,145 $0 $16,721 $16,721 $16,721 $50,163 Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 6 of 9 1/30/2013

7 Wildlife Tech III 200 Travel 300 Biomek service contract 1 $27,264/yr $0 $2,272 $2,272 $2,272 $6, Smolt trap supplies (aluminum stock, vexar, cables, earth anchors) $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $0 $12,000 Sampling supplies (sample bottles, ethanol, replacement nets, poly line) $1,790 $1,790 $1,790 $0 $5,370 Field camp supplies (groceries, chest waders, head lamps, batteries) $2,200 $2,200 $2,200 $6,600 Dneasy DNA extraction kits $7,820 $7,820 $7,820 $23, X 96 plex SNP Fluidyme chips $33,925 $33,925 $33,925 $101,775 Biochemicals (TAQ, primers, probes) $19,550 $19,550 $19,550 $58,650 Lab disposables (vials, pipette tips) $11,730 $11,730 $11,730 $35, Equipment Total Direct $143,217 $235,235 $235,235 $92,018 $705,705 Budget adjustments between line items are allowed for amounts equal to or less than 10% of the total award without prior AKSSF approval; any amount above 10% requires prior AKSSF approval. All costs in lines must represent actual cash expenditures. All costs shall be adequately documented for both direct and match expenses. All invoices will be submitted for payment within 30 days of the project end date in accordance with the current AKSSF invoicing P&P. Invoices submitted after that deadline will not be reimbursed. Expenses incurred after the project end date will not be reimbursed. Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 7 of 9 1/30/2013

8 XI. Match Budget* Line Item SY10 SY11 SY12 SY13 Total 100 Personnel $34,256 $49,748 $49,748 $49,748 $183, Travel 300 Contractual $1,332 $1,332 $1,332 $0 $3, Supplies $36,600 $36,600 $36,600 $0 $109, Equipment Total Direct Costs $72,188 $87,680 $87,680 $49,748 $297,296 *Match budget shows more match than is required for this project. Total ADF&G Match: $232,883 Budget Narrative: Line 100: Personnel ADF&G matching funds consist of 2 man-months (mm) each of permanent staff time for T.M Willette and R.D. DeCino in FY10-13 for project planning, purchasing, staff hiring, training and supervision, and budget tracking, data analysis, and report writing. In addition, a biometrician II will provide 1.5 mm of staff time to conduct statistical analyses to estimate genetic stock compositions. (See details in table below.) Line 300: Contractual Additional matching funds consist of office lease, computer lease, truck lease, and skiff leases over the 60 days of field sampling. (See details in table below.) Line 400: Supplies Smolt sampling gear. (See details in table below.) Line Item Description No. Man-Months Unit Cost SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013 Total 100 Fishery Biologist III 1 2 $9,503 $19,006 $19,006 $19,006 $19,006 $76,024 Fishery Biologist II 1 2 $7,625 $15,250 $15,250 $15,250 $15,250 $61,000 Biometrician II $10,328 $0 $15,492 $15,492 $15,492 $46, Travel 300 Office lease 2 2 $333 $1,332 $1,332 $1,332 $0 $3,996 Desktop computer lease 2 2 $150 $600 $600 $600 $0 $1,800 Laptop computer lease 2 2 $150 $600 $600 $600 $0 $1,800 Truck lease 2 2 $600 $2,400 $2,400 $2,400 $0 $7,200 Fyke net lease 2 60 $25 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $0 $9,000 Inclined plane trap lease 4 60 $50 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $0 $36,000 18' skiff w/ 50 hp outboard 1 60 $150 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $0 $27,000 18' skiff w/ 75 hp outboard 1 60 $150 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $0 $27, Total Direct $72,188 $87,680 $87,680 $49,748 $297,296 Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 8 of 9 1/30/2013

9 References Seeb, L.W., Habicht, C., W.D. Templin, K.E. Tarbox, R.Z. Davis, L.K. Brannian, J.E. Seeb Genetic diversity of sockeye salmon of Cook Inlet, Alaska, and its application of management of populations affected by the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill. Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 129: Todd, G.L. (1994) A lightweight, inclined-plane trap for sampling salmon smolts in rivers. Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin 1: Kenai Smolt Abundance Phase 3 Page 9 of 9 1/30/2013