Effects of climate change on fish spawning grounds and larvae drift. Frode Vikebø Risør

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1 Effects of climate change on fish spawning grounds and larvae drift Frode Vikebø Risør

2 Objectives What are the prerequisites for modelling drift, growth and survival of early stages of fish in a future climate? Time and location of spawning Condition of eggs Spatio-temporal description of the relevant physics Prey and predator availability...

3 Objectives What are the prerequisites for modelling drift, growth and survival of early stages of fish in a future climate? Time and location of spawning Condition of eggs Spatio-temporal description of the relevant physics Prey and predator availability...

4 Challenges in assessing climate change Physics Biology Downscaling of global physical models Upscaling from individual effects to population- and ecosystem-level effects

5 Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring Herring Little latitudinal shifts between years Large variation in spawning time between years Cod Large latitudinal shifts between years Little variation in spawning time between years

6 Variations in spawning time and place Norwegian Spring Spawning herring Husebø et al showed that hatching date is highly variable and affected by; i) wintering temperature during gonad development (r=0.54, p=0.02) ii) percent recruit spawners (r=-0.41, n.s.) iii) hatching temperature (r=0.53, p=0.03) Day number 110 Hatch day 105 Survival Year Survival

7 Variations in spawning time and place Norwegian Spring Spawning herring Slotte and Fiksen (2000) showed that southward spawning migration distance typically increases with the length and condition of the parent fish.

8 Variations in spawning time and place Norwegian Spring Spawning herring Stenevik and Nash (unpub.) show that spawning distribution also varies in time, but less than for Northeast Arctic cod.

9 Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod Time of spawning more stable than for herring (between March 29 and April 5 in ). Peak spawning delayed by 14 days since 1930, due to fishing that has truncated the demographic composition.

10 Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod However, Kjesbu et al and Skjæraasen et al show that high wintering temperatures results in earlier spawning due to faster gonad development. Stronger effect in large compared to small fish.

11 Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod However, Kjesbu et al and Skjæraasen et al show that high wintering temperatures results in earlier spawning due to faster gonad development. Stronger effect in large compared to small fish. With early peak zooplankton production during a warm climate only large females can exploit the higher temperatures to speed up gonad maturation and match the peak food production (Ellertsen et al. 1989; Kjesbu et al. 1996; Solemdal 1997).

12 Data storage tags from cod show that the narrowest temperature range are experienced during spawning (Kjesbu et al. 2010). Hence, spawning act as a thermal bottleneck (strongly affected by climate change).. Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod

13 Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod One way to adapt to climate variability/change is to shift spawning location and thereby maintain temperature exposure (Sundby and Nakken 2008). However, this may depend on the adult spawning migration capability and the habitat specifics. E.g. tags show that North Sea cod return to traditional spawning grounds despite temperature variability in the habitat.

14 Recent years spawning distribution Northeast Arctic cod Egg distribution based on recent years observations. Spawningground NEA cod (%) NSS herring (%)

15

16 Vikebø et al. 2012

17 NEA cod juvenile distribution Opdal et al. 2011

18 NEA cod juvenile distribution Opdal et al. 2011

19 NEA cod juvenile distribution In a 20-year period the shifts in spawning migration by far outweighs the interannual fluctuations in temperature. Opdal et al. 2011

20 Early hatching results in quicker drift 1 m 5 m 68 o N 25/4 40 m Depth 10 m 20 m 30 m 67 o N 66 o N Hatching date 15/4 5/4 20/3 30 m 20 m 10 m Depth 40 m 10/3 20/3 5/4 15/4 25/4 Hatching date 65 o N 10/ Latitude ( o N) 0 m Northward displacement of larvae in 60 days related to drift depth and hatching date Vikebø et al. 2010

21 Interannual variation in ambient temperature and drift Temperature variation due to shift in spawning time match the interannual temperature variation But, there are available spawning substrates farther north and, hence, a possibility to manipulate temperature similarly to cod

22 Spring bloom dynamics Seawifs data (88-07) show a delay in spring bloom with increasing latitude of 37 days within herring spawning habitat. There are significant interannual variability, more at Møre than in Lofoten. Southern spawning grounds favourable for early spawning. Northern spawning grounds favourable for stable conditions. Vikebø et al Avg Std

23 Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis Despite the fact that the availability of suitable spawning substrates are higher in the north, the bulk of the NSS herring stock wintering off northern Norway choose to migrate southwards and upstream to spawn. Vikebø et al. 2012

24 Summary Important to understand spawning strategies to assess impact of climate change on early life history of fish While NSS herring have variable peak spawning time and relatively fixed spawning grounds, NEA cod display the opposite trends Are we able to predict changes to spawning time and location in a changing climate as we (are expected to) move beyond historic temperature records? Are NSS herring spawning strategies more fit to meet climate change with respect to match with spring bloom than cod?

25 18 16 Production Past norm: cold water (5 C) Zooplankton production Larvae from large cod Larvae from small and large cod match peak food production Monthly DST T (ºC) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Time (month) Larvae from small cod Production Climate change: warm water (9 C) Zooplankton is earlier Large females match food production Small females fail to mature gonads in time Large females become more important for recruitment Time of year

26 Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod Time of spawning is more stable than for herring. Between March 29 and April 5 in Peak spawning delayed by 14 days since 1930, due to fishing that has truncated the demographic composition. However, Kjesbu et al and Skjæraasen et al show that high wintering temperatures results in earlier spawning due to faster gonad development. Stronger effect in large compared to small fish. With early peak zooplankton production during a warm climate only large females can exploit the higher temperatures to speed up gonad maturation and match the peak food production (Ellertsen et al. 1989; Kjesbu et al. 1996; Solemdal 1987).

27 Modeled oceanography in herring habitat. Model, 4x4 km, mean April Drifters covering several years Will early hatching ensure rapid transport along the Norwegian Coast? Daily mean modeled circulation and temperatures utilized in IBM larvae model

28 relative to recruitment Early hatching is favorable for larval survival (Husebø et al. 2009) Coastal current is stronger early in the season and enhance the importance of early hatching for rapid northward transport and predator avoidance However, inter-annual variations in temperature and current strength may modify this. But what about feeding opportunities? Which predators are the most important? Important processes remains to be studied! O Enhanced survival

29 Early hatching - slower growth but enhanced survival Husebø,Å., Slotte, A., Stenevik, E. K., Vikebø, F., Folkvord, A., Fossum, P. and Mosegaard, H. (Submitted). Use of otolith microstructure analyses to study the relation between larval growth and survival in Norwegian spring spawning herring. JMS.. Higher daily otolith growth in larvae than for surviving 0-group and adults. Early hatched larvae had otolith growth comparable to 0-group and adults. Larval otolith growth comparable to 0-group otolith growth found close to the coast.

30 Early hatching - slower growth but enhanced survival Model simulations suggest that near shore larval drift is associated with early hatching and colder ambient temperatures compared with more offshore drift. 66 o N o N

31 Early hatching - slower growth but enhanced survival Lower otolith growth in the juveniles and adults compared to larvae is in contrast to most other studies. Indicate a selection for early hatching. Is it due to earlier/faster northward displacement of larvae and possibly reduced predation?

32 Variations in spawning time and place Northeast Arctic cod With early peak zooplankton production during a warm climate only large females can exploit the higher temperatures to speed up gonad maturation and match the peak food production (Ellertsen et al. 1989; Kjesbu et al. 1996; Solemdal 1987). Production Production Past norm: cold water (5 C) Zooplankton production Larvae from large cod Larvae from small cod Climate change: warm water (9 C) Zooplankton is earlier Large females match food production Larvae from small and large cod match peak food production Small females fail to mature gonads in time Large females become more important for recruitment Time of year

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