Assessment of the Pacific Sardine Resource in 2014 for USA Management in

Transcription

1 Agenda Item H.1.b Supplemental Stock Assessment PowerPoint (Hill) April 2014 Assessment of the Pacific Sardine Resource in 2014 for USA Management in SWFSC-FRD K.T. Hill, P.R. Crone, D.A. Demer, J. Zwolinski, E. Dorval, B.J. Macewicz Fisheries Resources Division SWFSC, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA

2 Acknowledgments CDFO: Linnea Flostrand, Vanessa Hodes, Sean MacConnachie, Jordan Mah NWFSC: Richard Methot, Ian Taylor WDFW: Carol Henry, Michael Sinclair, Sandra Rosenfield, Jennifer Topping, Lorna Wargo ODFW: Jill Smith, Cyreis Schmitt CDFG: Dianna Porzio, Mandy Lewis, Elizabeth Hellmers, Chelsea Protasio, Kirk Lynn, Trung Nguyen, Michael Dilts, Tina Gallegos, Roni Shen, Elizabeth Hiroyasu, Thomas vanmeeuwen, Joe Suwada, Anna Holder, Julianne Taylor, Nichole Rodriguez, Marianne Gonnerman SWFSC: Dave Griffith, Amy Hays, Sue Manion, Bill Watson, Elaine Acuña, Andrew Thompson, Sherri Charter, Erin Reed, Jenny McDaniel, Yuhong Gu, Noelle Bowlin, Randy Cutter, Kyle Byers, Josiah Renfree, Steve Sessions INAPESCA: Manuel Nevarrez (Mexico City) and Eva Cotero (Ensenada) STAR Panel: André Punt (SSC, UW), Meisha Key (SSC, CDFW), John Simmonds (CIE), José De Oliveira (CIE), Chelsea Protasio (CPSMT, CDFW), and Diane Pleschner-Steele (CPSAS, CWPA)

3 Areas Explored for the 2014 Assessment Approach to Defining Stock Structure Surveys o Treatment of ATM series (single v. seasonal series; est. v. fix q) o Inclusion/exclusion of surveys Biological Compositions o Length versus age data/selectivity o Fix versus estimated growth o Data weighting o Time blocking Stock-Recruitment Function Natural Mortality U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 3

4 Northern Subpopulation Distribution Fishing Areas, & Modeled Fleets Summer/Fall (Feeding) NSP Distribution and Fishing Areas Vancouver Island (BC) Washington (WA) Oregon (OR) PacNW Fleet MexCal Fleet Winter/Spring (Spawning) Monterey Bay (CCA) So. Calif. (SCA) Ensenada (ENS) U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic Southern and Atmospheric subpopulation Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 4

5 Seasonal Distribution of Northern & Southern Subpopulations (conceptual model from Garcia-Morales et al. 2012) Winter Spring Summer Fall NSP NSP NSP NSP SSP SSP SSP SSP U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 5

6 Differentiation of Sardine Subpopulations Evidence for Two Subpopulations off the West Coast: Blood serology Temperature Affinity: o Egg distributions have distinct temperature-salinity profiles; o Vertebral counts vary by latitude; o Modes in temperature-at-catch by season and latitude; o Otolith morphometrics Otolith microchemistry studies are underway Problem: Some portion of sardine landed in Ensenada and San Pedro is likely from the southern subpopulation. Misclassified landings/compositions could skew fishery compositions, affect biomass estimates, and bias exploitation rates. Approach: We differentiated sardine catches/comps in San Pedro and Ensenada using potential habitat model (Zwolinski et al. 2011) and satellite oceanography data (Demer & Zwolinski 2014). Monthly landings were ascribed to northern stock if the SST-based index > 0.5 of fishing areas (i.e. majority of the region contained potential northern-stock habitat).

7 Proportion of Catch Ascribed to Northern Subpopulation

8 Landings by Modeled Fleets Total Catch Northern Subpopulation U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 8

9 Spring 2013 DEPM Survey Of the trawls positive for sardine, 15 collections contained mature females (8 in Region 1; 7 in Region 2; 121 histological samples analyzed); Spawning areas smaller; Spawning fraction higher (15%); SSB total = 144,880 mt (CV=0.36) SSB female = 82,182 mt (CV=0.30) Female SSB 27% lower than 2012.

10 Spring 2013 ATM Survey Results Central CA Mt (CV=26.0%) CI 95% = Mt SCB Mt (CV=36.3%) CI 95% = Mt Total Mt (CV=24.4%) CI 95% = Mt Sardine Density

11 Summer 2013 ATM Results WA-OR Mt (CV=37.7%) CI 95% = Mt OR-CA Mt (CV=53.7%) CI 95% = Mt Central CA Mt (CV=34.9%) CI 95% = Mt Total Mt (CV = 27.5%) CI 95% = Mt

12 Modeled Survey Time Series U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 12

13 Model Changes Since the 2011 Assessment Data Element / Parameterization Model X6e ( ) Pre-STAR Model G STAR Base Model T Subpopulation definition: port environment environment Biological comps (Length & CondAL): 3 fleets & ATM survey 3 fleets & ATM survey no ATM CondAL Spawner-recruit function: Ricker Beverton-Holt Beverton-Holt steepness estimated steepness fixed=0.8 steepness fixed=0.8 σ R tuned (0.727) σ R = 0.75 σ R = 0.75 NWSS Aerial Survey fit; q estimated omitted omitted ATM Survey: single time series Split Spring & Summer Split Spring & Summer q fixed=1 q estimated q fixed=1 Data Weighting: Variance Adjustments No variance adjustments No variance adjustments CondAL downweighted CondAL λ=0.5 CondAL λ=0.2 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 13

14 Recruit Abundance

15 Estimated Stock Biomass Series from Models X6e, G, T July 2014 = 369,506 mt

16 Exploitation Rate

17 Harvest Specifications for Harvest Control Rule Formulas OFL = BIOMASS * E MSY * DISTRIBUTION ABC P-star = BIOMASS * BUFFER P-star * E MSY * DISTRIBUTION HG = (BIOMASS - CUTOFF) * FRACTION * DISTRIBUTION Harvest Formula Parameters BIOMASS (ages 1+, mt ) 369,506 P-star ABC Buffer Tier ABC Buffer Tier CalCOFI SST ( ) E MSY FRACT ION 0.15 CUTOFF (mt) 150,000 DISTRIBUTION (U.S.) 0.87 Harvest Control Rule Values (MT) OFL = 39,210 ABC Tier 1 = 37,475 35,792 34,131 32,464 30,757 28,961 26,999 24,719 21,688 ABC Tier 2 = 35,818 32,672 29,710 26,879 24,126 21,391 18,591 15,583 11,997 HG = 28,646 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 17