State of Fish Stocks in European Waters

Transcription

1 State of Fish Stocks in European Waters 26 th September 2012 Centre de Conférences Albert Borschette, Brussels, Belgium Dr Carl O Brien ACOM (Advisory Committee) Vice-chair ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)

2 Content of presentation OVERVIEW OF NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STOCKS Summarise the biological status of the main stocks of interest for EU fisheries New procedures for assessing and managing stocks with incomplete data will be explained

3 ICES advice 1. Iceland & East Greenland 2. Barents Sea & Norwegian Sea 3. Faroe Plateau 4. North Sea 5. Celtic Sea & West of Scotland 6. Bay of Biscay & Atlantic Iberian Waters 7. Baltic Sea Widely distributed stocks Ecoregions EU stocks

4 General trends in the Northeast Atlantic State of stocks: MSY (all ecoregions) 2010: 33 of assessed stocks 2011: 35 of assessed stocks 2012: tbd ICES (2011). Report of the ICES Advisory Committee. Book 1, 226pp.

5 2010: New 78 individual approach fish stocks intends to Quantitative advice for 10 data-limited stocks aid policy-makers move towards sustainable Majority of the data-limited stocks have more information available than merely either catch or landings. exploitation of fisheries 2012: 185 individual fish stocks 81% (68 out of 84) Quantitative advice for 68 data-limited stocks

6 Advice and expert groups (Jan. to Sept. 2012) Number of stocks for which advice is requested Number of special requests 9 fisheries related requests General Advice 5 environment related requests 4 ecosystem related requests Iceland and East Greenland Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea Faroe Plateau Ecosystem 20 stocks 9 stocks 12 stocks Celtic Sea and West of Scotland 48 stocks 1 special fisheries related request North Sea 34 stocks 1 special fisheries related request Bay of Biscay and Atlantic Iberian Waters 23 stocks Baltic Sea 15 stocks 1 special fisheries related request Widely Distributed and Migratory Stocks North Atlantic Salmon 21 stocks 3 special fisheries related requests 3 stocks

7 Landings: Mis-reporting (area / species) Insufficient or unrepresentative biological sampling coverage No reporting It was not possible to include Spanish commercial data for Catch options and advice for 2013: based on the 2011 assessment. Discards: No reporting Insufficient observer coverage and coverage bias Effort: Non-availability Poor linkage to fishing practice / métier Poor comparability Data quality issues 25 th September :01 Spanish national authorities are investigating a pragmatic solution to provide the best estimate of catches unallocated catches Stock surveys (e.g. coverage, => design Assess and stock consistency size and in provide time) Biological data (Bias / errors in management measurements advice of age and maturity; uncertain stock identity)

8 Same principles, concept and framework: Maximize average long-term yield (setting F MSY ) Safeguard against low SSB (setting MSY B trigger ) ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule (HCR) MSY B trigger ICES MSY more caution needed F MSY SSB 2013

9 ICES MSY... continued Transition to MSY HCR by 2015 Moving from F 2010 to F MSY-HCR in 2015 in 5 steps F MSY-HCR transition 2013 = 0.4 F(2010) F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 2014 = 0.2 F(2010) F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 2015 = 0.0 F(2010) F MSY-HCR = F MSY-HCR (values of advised F capped at F pa for consistency with PA)

10 Data-limited stocks (DLS) Activity in Enormous scientific / advisory effort! WKLIFE (February), RGLIFE (May); development by Cefas, ACOM Leadership, ICES Secretariat and ICES community Three basic principles: 1) Available information should be used. 2) Advice for DLS should, to the extent possible, follow the same principles as for data-rich stocks; i.e. aiming towards exploitation consistent with MSY. 3) The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities.

11 Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued Categorisation of stocks (6 categories) from data-rich towards situations of decreasing information. Methods proposed for different categories further developments, simulation testing... on-going Common DLS situations: stock abundance index and F relative to F MSY-proxy (plaice in VIId) stock abundance index available (megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd) (anglerfish ) F in relation to F MSY-proxy available (sole VIIh-k) time-series available of landings only (sole VIIbc) (whiting IIIa)

12 Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued Advice starts from recent catch (for most stocks, average landings of last 3 years) and modifies it as follows: If stock abundance index available: modify according to index trend in last 5 years (Average last 2 years)/(average 3 previous years) If current F relative to F MSY-proxy known: modify according to change required in current F to reach F MSY-proxy (could be in steps until 2015) If time series available of landings only: no modification (but precautionary margin always applied)

13 Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued After appropriate DLS method has been applied, two subsequent sequential steps: 1. Uncertainty window: limit result to 20% change (increase or decrease) (because results more noisy than with standard stock assessments) 2. Precautionary margin: 20% reduction if stock status relative to (candidate) reference points unknown, unless there is evidence that stock is strongly increasing or that exploitation (F or effort) has decreased substantially

14 Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued Advice applicable to time-frame compatible with measurable response in metrics used as basis for advice The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities, and when precautionary margin applied: no expected change in advice for a number of years (e.g. 3 years tbd) unless important new knowledge emerges

15 Herring stocks NS, CS & WoS North Sea autumn spawners NSAS EU/Norway MP Western Baltic spring spawners WBSS MSY

16 Herring stocks NS, CS & WoS... cont. Celtic Sea and S Ireland NSAS WBSS VIa (north) IS VIa (south) and VIIb,c

17 Other stocks Channel, CS & WoS West of Scotland & Rockall (VIab) Cod (VIa; VIb) Haddock (VIa; VIb) Whiting (VIa; VIb) Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI) Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb) Nephrops (FUs ) Irish Sea (VIIa) Cod Haddock Whiting Plaice Sole Nephrops (FUs ) Celtic Sea & West, Southwest Ireland Cod (VIIe-k) Haddock (VIIb-k) Whiting (VIIe-k) Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Northern hake Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Nephrops (FUs ) English Channel Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak) Plaice (VIId) Plaice (VIIe) Sole (VIId) Sole (VIIe)

18 Overview by species / stocks: flatfish Stock F MSY MSY B trigger Advice last year Advice this year Plaice SW Ireland 0.24 nd reduce catch < 100 t; reduce bycatch and discards Plaice W Ireland nd nd no increase in catch < 30 t Plaice Celtic Sea nd nd Plaice Irish Sea nd nd reduce catch; technical measures no increase in catch; tech measures < 360 t; technical measures to reduce discard rates < 490 t Plaice W Channel t < 1440 t < t Plaice E Channel 0.23 nd no increase in catch < t; reduce discards Stock F MSY MSY B trigger Advice last year Advice this year Sole SW Ireland 0.31 nd no increase in catch < 200 t; take into account advice for plaice Sole W Ireland nd nd no increase in catch < 30 t Sole Celtic Sea t < t < t Sole Irish Sea t < 200 t no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards Sole W Channel t < 740 t < 960 t Sole E Channel t < t < t

19 Overview by species / stocks Stock F MSY MSY B trigger Advice last year Advice this year Hake Northern 0.24 nd < t < t Angler VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce catch < t Angler IIIa, IV, VI nd nd reduce catch reduce by 20% Megrim IVa, VIa t no increase in catch < t Megrim Rockall nd nd no increase in catch < 160 t Megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce catch < t Pollack VI, VII nd nd no increase < t

20 Landings in 1000 tonnes F (15-80cm) SSB in 1000 tonnes Recruitment in millions SSB in 1000t Hake Northern stock Advice for 2013, MSY transition: Landings < t MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) Not available Not available SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Landings Not available Not available Above poss. reference points Recruitment (age 0) F(15-80 cm) F MSY * No assessment in 2012, last year s assessment * Strong year-class in 2007 and 2008, but weak in 2009 and Fishing Mortality FMSY Spawning Stock Biomass * Very strong increase in SSB and decrease in F * Rapid growth and fast dynamics

21 Hake Northern stock... continued Landings t (discards ~6 700 t) No stock landings or discards in 2011 (Spanish data not available) Discards included in assessment but incomplete and high uncertainty Short-term forecast in terms of catch split into landings and discards F (2011) and F (2012) = F( ) = 0.42; landings (2011) = 77.4, landings (2012) = 63.2; SSB (2013) = 114 kt Rationale Human consump. landings (2013) Basis F Total (2013) F HC (2013) F Disc (2013) Disc. (2013) Catch Total (2013) SSB (2014) %SSB change 1) %TAC change 2) MSY framework 37.2 F MSY (F sq *0.57) % 32% MSY transition *F *F MSY (F sq *0.71) % TAC Recovery Plan (F sq *0.75) % 18% % 15% Other options 55.1 Equal TAC (F sq *0.91) % 0% 59.9 F sq * % +9% % TAC (F sq *1.08) % +15% 68.9 F sq * % +25% 35% of projected landings in 2013 from assumed recruitment ( )

22 Landings in 1000 t Abundance (millions) Biomass ('000 tonnes) Advice 2013, DLS: Reduce catch by 20% in relation to last 3 years average. Due to uncertainty in landings data, ICES cannot quantify resulting catch. Dedicated anglerfish surveys in Division IVa and MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) Unknown Unknown SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius & L. budegassa) in Division IIIa and Subareas IV and VI Unknown Unknown Decreasing Subarea VI indicate decline since 2008: (Average last 2 years) 20% lower than (average previous 3 years) 20% catch decrease with respect to recent average (last 3 year average) 1. Uncertainy window: 20% decrease 2. Precautionary margin: no because significant effort decrease in main fisheries Northern shelf (partial) Landings Area IV (partial) Area VIa AreaVIb AreaVI

23 Cod stocks Northeast Atlantic NE Arctic East- Greenland Norwegian Coastal Iceland Faroe-plateau Faroe-bank Rockall West Scotland North Sea + Kattegat Eastern Baltic Western Baltic Irish Sea VIIe-k

24 Landings in 1000 t F (ages 2-4) Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West Recruitment in millions SSB in 1000 t SSB in 1000 t Advice for 2013, EU/Norway MP: Landings < t MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Management plan (F MP ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Management plan (SSB MP ) F (Fishing Mortality) Above target Harvested sustainably Above target SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Total removals Fishing Mortality Below trigger Reduced reproductive capacity Below trigger Unallocated Discards Landings Fmsy Fpa Flim Recruitment (age 1) Fishing Mortality (ages 2-4) Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa MSY Btrigger Blim * Gradual improvement in last years, but still poor stock status * F well above F MSY * SSB just below B lim * All year-classes since 1997 very low * Proportion discarded in recent years higher than in past

25 Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West Total removals kt: landings (35kt), discards (12kt), unallocated (20kt) Catch = landings + discards = 47 kt Main sources of uncertainty: unallocated removals and assumptions for F(2012) Short-term forecast in terms of catch split into landings, discards and unallocated F (2012) reduction according to MP; SSB(2012) = 65 kt ( < B lim ) MP F(2013) = 0.35 x F(2008) = 0.22, subject to 20% TAC constraint Rationale Landings 1) Basis F total F land F disc F unal 2) Disc Unal 2) SSB %SSB 3) %TAC 4) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2014) Change Change Management Plan TAC constraint % 20%

26 Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West F (2012) reduction according to observed trend in F during ; SSB(2013) < MSY B trigger Rationale Landings 1) Basis F total F land F disc F unal 2) Disc Unal 2) SSB %SSB 3) %TAC 4) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2014) Change Change Management Plan TAC constraint % -20% MSY framework 10 F MSY * SSB 2013 /B trigger % -69% MSY transition 28 Transition rule % -13% Zero catch 0 F= % -100% Other options 19 F MSY % -41% TAC % % -20% TAC % % +20% 43 F % +36% 43 Landings % +34% Mixed fisheries options minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used (ICES, 2012b) Maximum 49 A 0.77 NA NA NA NA NA % +55 % Minimum 25 B 0.25 NA NA NA NA NA % -20 % Cod MP 25 C 0.29 NA NA NA NA NA % -20 % SQ effort 42 D 0.55 NA NA NA NA NA 68-10% +33 % Effort_Mgt 30 E 0.32 NA NA NA NA NA % -6 % Mixed fisheries options presented in advice for first time: TAC for cod is the limiting one in the North Sea

27 Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks In 2012, for the North Sea, ICES presents for the first time in its advice: an analysis of the implications of mixed fisheries under current TAC and effort regimes Catch advice for each stock on a single stock basis (based on MP, MSY framework or PA) Are the TACs corresponding to this advice in agreement with each other in mixed fisheries context? Or are TACs for some species likely to be exhausted much sooner than for others? (in which case, some species will be caught above or below the TAC)

28 Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued Analysis assumes: same fleet behaviour in 2012 and 2013 as in 2011 (same fishing pattern and catchability) Five example mixed fisheries scenarios explored: min: fleets stop fishing when their first quota exhausted max: fleets stop fishing when their last quota exhausted cod: fleets stop fishing when their cod quota exhausted Status quo effort: effort (E) equal to most recent year Effort management: E reduced according to regulations min and max not realistic, but provide boundaries

29 Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued Predicted landings for 2013, per stock and per scenario TAC overshoot (hatched) and undershoot (below zero) Scenario: Maximum Minimum Cod Status Quo Effort Effort Mgt Single-stock advice 2013 Saithe Plaice Haddock Whiting Cod Nephrops, Sole Stocks Individual stock objectives cannot all be achieved simultaneously In 2013, the TAC (advice) for cod is the most limiting

30 Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued SSB in 2014 according to single-stock advice and mixed-fisheries scenarios: Singlestock SSB resulting from mixed-fisheries scenario 2014 Advice Stock SSB result Max Min Cod SQ_E Eff_mgt in 2014 Cod Haddock Plaice Saithe Sole Whiting legend SSB 2014 > Bpa or MSY Btrigger SSB 2014 > Blim SSB 2014 < Blim No reference points defined

31 Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued Fleets will change behaviour in response to their catch possibilities for different species but difficult to predict Full value of mixed fisheries models will be realized with input from managers and stakeholders on trade-offs between different species in catch; e.g. scenarios that take into account value of different species or other aspects influencing fleets behaviour scenarios that consider changes in fleets selectivities incorporation of mixed-fishery effects in LTMP

32 Multi-species considerations Biological interactions occur between fish from a population, across populations and with other components of the marine ecosystem. Some aspects incorporated in ICES single-stock advice (e.g. natural mortality values that reflect history of predator populations) but more progress is required Density-dependent effects imply that all the expected increases in stock abundance based on an MSY approach on an individual stock basis are unlikely to occur simultaneously

33 Multi-species considerations... continued Response of the stocks to changes in fishing pressure will also be affected by biological interactions In most regions, reliable predictive models accounting for the effect of biological interactions on stocks response do not exist at present. If that continues to be the case, a stock-by-stock MSY approach will be used based on the observed response of the stocks once they have been fished at F MSY When reliable predictive models are developed: multispecies fishing strategies to be developed to achieve MSY on multispecies basis - requires evaluating tradeoffs based on managers and stakeholders preferences

34 Multi-species considerations... continued In the 2012 advice, ICES presents an illustration concerning multi-species management for cod, herring and sprat fisheries in the Baltic: At this stage, work is illustrative Meant as starting point for dialogue Need to agree on objectives and risk tolerance Will need a transition period Focuses on most obvious interactions between cod, sprat and herring. Not a full ecosystem or food-web model ICES will pursue further development of multi-species work with a view to integrate it into advice when ready

35 Multi-species considerations... continued For cod, sprat and herring in the Central Baltic Sea it could be possible: to increase the sum of the sustainable yield of the 3 species combined in tonnes to improve the growth of individual fish of the 3 species However, cod yields will remain about the same the probability of low cod SSB will increase Results assume full spatial overlap Spatial overlap currently limited, cod in 25, sprat and herring in and 32

36 Increas Advice for 2013 and 2014, DLS: Catch < t MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Qualitative evaluation MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Qualitative evaluation Black scabbardfish in Subareas VI, VII and Divisions Vb and XIIb F (Fishing Mortality) Unknown Unknown Above poss ref points SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Total landings Unknown Unknown Above poss ref points Biomass index Standardized cpue Biomass index Tally book -Subarea VI * Landings and CPUE data from start of fishery * CPUE from tally book in VI, considered the most reliable biomass index * Growth faster than for other deep-water species * Trend in last 5 years: 20% increase * Precautionary margin: no because exploitation not detrimental to stock * Mixed trawl fisheries with roundnose grenadier and blue ling

37 Landings (t) Red seabream in Subareas VI, VII and VIII Advice for 2013 and 2014: No directed fisheries; reduce by-catch. MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Qualitative evaluation MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) Unknown Unknown Unknown SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Unknown Unknown likely to be below B trigger and B lim * Catches well below historic levels, indicating depletion. No indication of recovery * Red seabream: low productivity * By-catch in longline, gillnet and trawl fisheries; no catch data on recreational fisheries

38 Digest of official advice Brief information on fish stocks 2012: popular version BriefInformation.asp

39 Popular version Comments to before 1 st January 2013