WHO S THE ACE AMONG 2015 FRESHMAN SIRES?

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1 WHO S THE ACE AMONG 2015 FRESHMAN SIRES? Special Section SIRES 2YO CONSIGNORS ARE BETTING ON JUDGING NEW SIRES BY PEDIGREE, PERFORMANCE

2 Champion Racehorse and Proven Sire $12,500 LFSN BLOOD-HORSE #1 on Steve Haskin s Derby Dozen A Top 20 Active Sire in 2014 over $6,100,000 in progeny earnings with two grade 1 winners mg1sw iotapa - owner of the highest female beyer of 2014 at more than a mile sold for $2,800,000 at keenov Eclipse Finalist Texas Red highest earning 2yo colt of 2014 owns the highest 2YO Beyer at more than a mile $26 Million in lifetime progeny earnings

3 Texas REd (G1) Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion (G1) co-highweight on experimental free hcp at 126 lbs. Texas Red, bred by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC Gainesway Farm / Michael Hernon Neil Howard / Brian Graves LGB, LLC 2015 / Benoit Photo *Statistics accurate as of press time

4 Unlock your mare s greatest potential... This comprehensive report considers your mare s entire pedigree all male and female ancestors and identifies the key ancestors to seek out or avoid in the pedigrees of stallions in prospective matings. Visit TrueNicks.com/ KeyAncestors for details and a sample report. Watch the video: Byron Rogers and Ian Tapp explain new features: TrueNicks.com/KeyAncestors Facebook.com/TrueNicks Twitter.com/TrueNicks TrueNicks.com

5 IN THIS SECTION JOE DIORIO JOE DIORIO COURTESY CASTLETON LYONS LYDIA A. WILLIAMS ADAM COGLIANESE/NYRA Cover illustration by Katie Taylor 6 FINDING THE RIGHT MIX 9 EARLY IMPRESSIONS 12 FRESHMAN SIRES BY THE NUMBERS 20 GUESSING GAME 22 SIZE AND ATHLETICISM This special section of MarketWatch is all about the next wave of freshman sires that have first-crop 2-year-olds of The new intake of stallions is highlighted by Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old male of 2010; Gio Ponti, a champion grass horse with plenty of dirt pedigree influences; and Trappe Shot, whose yearling average was the highest ever for a first-crop sire that entered stud for a $10,000 fee. Since our next look at the offspring of these sires will be at the 2-year-old sales, Glenye Cain Oakford examines the changing juvenile auction landscape. Keeneland April is gone (at least for 2015), some sales have relocated to new venues, and sale companies continue to tinker with their catalogs and under tack show formats to appeal to both consignors and buyers. Next, Michael Compton talks to 2-year-old consignors about the progeny of first-crop sires under their care; some of the stallions with impressive 2-year-olds in training may surprise you. Alan Porter discusses how the commercial stallion market selects for pedigree, racing performance, and physical appearance but can these criteria help us predict eventual success as a sire? Finally, we review last year s close race for leading freshman sire between Quality Road and Super Saver. Todd Pletcher trained both horses during their racing careers, and he offers his perspective on what each sire is passing on to his progeny. Then, Lane s End and WinStar Farm tell us what makes their stallion Quality Road and Super Saver, respectively unique. Enjoy, Ian Tapp Managing Editor Vol. CXLI, No. 6 The Blood-Horse (ISSN ) is published weekly except for the first week of June, the first week of July and the fourth week of December, plus two special issues, one in July and one in December by The Blood-Horse Inc., 3101 Beaumont Centre Circle, Lexington, Ky., Periodicals postage paid at Lexington, Ky., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to THE BLOOD-HORSE, P.O. Box , Lexington, KY Combined issues count as two subscription issues. One-year subscription surface rates: United States, $99.00 (plus sales tax where applicable); Canada, $ (including GST); all others, $ payable in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank. Optional air expedited service available $ US dollars. Send subscription orders, change of address requests, or inquiries to: THE BLOOD-HORSE, Circulation Dept., P.O. Box , Lexington, KY ; or for fastest service call in the U.S./Canada: (800) All others may call (859) Hours are Mon.-Fri., 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. EST/EDT, except holidays. Fax us at: (859) Include copy of mailing label for address changes. Allow 4-6 weeks for arrival of first copy or for address change to take effect. Send Letters to the Editor and all other correspondence to: THE BLOOD-HORSE, P.O. Box , Lexington, Ky., (859) Canada Post International Publications Mail Product (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No Canada GST registration R Printed in the United States. Data provided or compiled by The Jockey Club Information Systems Inc. generally is accurate but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. The Jockey Club Information Systems Inc. disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to its attention. Information as to races, race results, earnings and other statistical data for races run subsequent to Dec. 31, 1990, was obtained from Equibase Company and is utilized only with permission of the copyright owner. Such information for periods prior to Jan. 1, 1991, was obtained from the Daily Racing Form Inc. Copyright 2015 by THE BLOOD-HORSE Inc. All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the prior written permission of THE BLOOD-HORSE Inc. MarketWatch / 5

6 2-Year-Old Auction Preview Larger, multi-day catalogs are designed to attract buyers at all price levels 2YO auction landscape undergoes reconfiguration Finding the Right Mix BY GLENYE CAIN OAKFORD FASIG-TIPTON PHOTOS This year s 2-year-old auction season is throwing some new variables at buyers and sellers, including the loss of Keeneland s April sale, a format change for the Ocala Breeders Sales Co. s March auction, and venue changes for the Fasig-Tipton Florida and Barretts May sales, which relocate to Gulfstream Park and Del Mar, respectively. But even with those changing features, sale executives and auction participants say they re optimistic the overall market will remain broadly stable and similar to last year s at a time when foal crops remain relatively TABLE 1 Yrlg-2YO Years No. Pinhooks Yearling to 2-year-old pinhooking trends, Horses sold as yearlings and again as 2-year-olds in North America Yrlg Avg. 2YO Avg. No. Profitable % Profitable Yrlg Gross 2YO Gross Rate of Return ,466 $44,368 $82, % $94,363,289 $115,451,163 22% ,235 $39,232 $85, % $73,151,161 $99,884,805 37% ,089 $34,100 $74, % $58,914,440 $77,033,286 31% ,133 $31,856 $63, % $58,752,605 $68,476,911 17% $34,508 $71, % $52,218,441 $65,198,577 25% Total 5,881 $37,371 $76,257 2,335 40% $337,399,936 $426,044,742 26% low and demand for juveniles appears to be holding steady. Last year, a total of 3,447 juveniles went through North American auction rings, up 19% from the previous year s 2,887 and the most since 2009, when the season offered 3,667 horses. But the larger number of offerings didn t slow the market s impressive rise: gross sales increased by a generous 16%, from $158,749,626 for 2,326 horses in 2013 to $183,465,841 for 2,679 horses in That marked the fourth consecutive year of growth for the public 2-year-old marketplace, a welcome climate for the sellers who MarketWatch / 6

7 2-Year-Old Auction Preview TABLE 2 Decile Yearling to 2-year-old pinhooks by yearling price decile, Horses sold as yearlings and again as 2-year-olds in North America Min. Price No. Pinhooks Yrlg Avg. 2YO Avg. BENOIT PHOTO No. Profitable Yrlg Gross 2YO Gross Rate of Return 1 $90, $144,681 $242, $98,808,500 $138,125,440 40% 2 $60, $71,000 $133, $53,599,231 $74,582,125 39% 3 $40, $47,251 $96, $48,891,323 $66,606,400 36% 4 $30, $33,079 $69, $28,609,811 $35,837,800 25% 5 $22, $25,035 $61, $22,607,745 $29,439,455 30% 6 $15, $17,696 $45, $26,952,670 $30,787,487 14% 7 $10, $11,481 $35, $17,944,123 $19,216, % 8 $6, $7,576 $28, $13,346,638 $12,902, % 9 $3, $4,260 $20, $15,041,063 $12,046,513-20% 10 $ $1,680 $12, $11,598,831 $6,500,336-44% Total $300 5,881 $37,371 $76,257 2,335 $337,399,936 $426,044,742 26% North American gross sales of 2-year-olds in training increased by 16% in 2014 endured the market downturn between 2006 and 2010, when overall gross collapsed by 47%, from a 10-year high of $218,127,764 to $115,076,588. The 2014 season s buy-backs ticked upward, too, but not alarmingly so. In 2014 the percentage of horses that failed to reach their reserves was 22%, up from 19% a year earlier. From Maryland to Florida to California, executives at auction houses hosting the season s big juvenile sales agree that the 2015 market should look much as it did last year, even if the details of the sale calendar do not. There s demand for quality at all levels in the marketplace, whether it s 2-year-olds in training or weanlings or yearlings or broodmares, said Fasig-Tipton president Boyd Browning, whose company hosts its Florida select sale at Gulfstream March 4, the Texas 2-year-olds auction at Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, Texas, March 31, and the Midlantic May auction in Timonium, Md., May I think you re going to continue to see a real appetite for quality, as we ve seen in every other marketplace in recent years. I think we ll see some greater depth to the market as supply and demand continues to be a challenge for people. People need horses, and if they can t always afford the one that they absolutely love, they may pick the one that they really like. Hopefully, you ll have more horses on people s short lists as a result of the need for horses. The 2015 juvenile auction landscape changed somewhat for the season s major sales when Keeneland announced it would not host its April 2-year-old auction, a fixture on the major juvenile auction calendar since 1993, due to a lack of horses. With its population of owners and trainers on the grounds during the track s prestigious spring race meet, Keeneland would have seemed the perfect place to conduct a 2-year-olds in training sale, but since 2009 the catalog had steadily dwindled from 216 to 137 horses, a fact that Keeneland s chief executive Bill Thomason suggested is part of a wider trend (and doubtless exacerbated by shrinking overall foal crops). The boutique sale model has become increasingly difficult, Thomason said in announcing the April sale s suspension. The April sale lacks a critical mass of horses, a key factor that makes our September yearling, November breeding stock, and January horses of all ages sales so successful. That s been a common refrain among some consignors and buyers in the 2-year-old marketplace for several years now: Multi-day auctions are growing in popularity because today s buyers want larger sale catalogs that give them more horses to choose from and a better chance of finding an affordable animal. That s one reason OBS has changed its March sale s format, expanding the catalog by about 200 horses in an open-style program that will take place March I think that s an opportunity to recapture some buyers who maybe skipped March the last few years, said OBS sales director Tod Wojciechowski. The increased catalog size helps get to that critical mass that buyers feel like they can come and find horses that fit their budget, and it allows buyers to spread out over the catalog so they re not all landing on the same horses. OBS s juvenile sales turned in record performances last year, and they all stay on the calendar in In addition to the March auction, OBS will conduct its spring sale April and a June auction June Also in 2015 OBS will use a new under tack show format at its 2015 April and June auctions; that format, which debuted at the 2014 June sale, divides the breeze show into shorter MarketWatch / 7

8 2-Year-Old Auction Preview sessions that take place over more days, in order to allow buyers additional time to examine horses all accommodations for buyers at the multi-day auctions. But not everyone is ready to consign the small, highend auction to the out-offashion bin just yet. Kentucky-based Fasig-Tipton still hosts its one-day, select Florida auction. The Florida horses that sold were lucrative, averaging $284,468 with a $180,000 median. But there were 38 buy-backs and 47 sales, resulting in a 45% buy-back rate, significantly higher than the rate at the OBS March, April, and June sales, at Barretts spring select and May sales, and at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale. Browning says heightened buyer selectivity at sales such as the Florida auction are due not to the sale format but to the closer scrutiny of 2-yearolds in general, from timed and videotaped workouts to more detailed veterinary exams. The Fasig-Tipton Florida sale this year moves from Frank Stronach s Adena Springs South near Williston, Fla., to Gulfstream Park, where Browning believes it will benefit from a strong owner and trainer colony and from the track itself. People are used to seeing horses race there and have a really good feel for the surface and the times, and they ll have a real familiarity with buying horses off of a surface they re accustomed to racing on, Browning said. I think there s an advantage to having a racing surface that s dirt. The overwhelming majority of graded stakes races that aren t conducted on turf are now raced on dirt, as opposed to synthetic surfaces. So I think there are definite advantages to prospective buyers being able to watch horses perform under tack on a surface that s very similar to what they re going to race on. California s Barretts sale company, meanwhile, will shift its headquarters to the Del Mar Fairgrounds this year after conducting sales at Fairplex Park in Pomona, Calif., since The company s final Pomona auction will be its select sale, held this year on Feb. 23 instead of its previous March slot. The May sale on May 27 will launch the Del Mar era. We d always like to have more horses, but we bring to market what we can and try to concentrate on quality, said Barretts general manager Kim Lloyd. We ve accomplished that. Del Mar is a destination, and I think it will be very attractive to buyers. I also think it will be attractive to consignors, and I think it will help us a lot. We have no trouble attracting buyers, but it would benefit everybody if we could offer more horses. Our consignors already bring good horses. Lloyd noted that Japanese agent Naohiro Goda has indicated the groups he represents are excited about the new venue and that at least one major Florida-based pinhooker told him the switch to Del Mar will probably increase his consignment there. That s all good news, At OBS April and June, shorter under tack shows spread over more days aim to give buyers more time to inspect horses and Lloyd also hopes to see more homegrown California pinhookers, especially in light of what he called the emergence of the Cal-bred at the 2013 May sale. I expect it to be strong like last year, and maybe even a little stronger, Lloyd said of the overall market. Pinhookers would welcome that. The number of pinhooked 2-year-olds has climbed steadily over the last three years from 1,089 in 2012 to 1,466 last year. The overall rate of return for 2013 s pinhooked juveniles (after factoring in a 5% sale commission and $20,000 in upkeep costs for each) was 37%, the highest since the pinhooking season, but it fell to 22% in the pinhook cycle. In a rebounding yearling market, average price jumped from $55,700 to $64,069 in 2013, and median price rose from $21,000 to $25,000 costs that tightened the lid on rate of return at the 2014 juvenile sales, even though the pinhooks gross returns also climbed. At season s end, the percentage of profitable pinhooks fell to 40%, down from 47% in 2013 as yearlings that cost $94,363,289 grossed $115,451,163 when resold as 2-yearolds of Prices remained much the same at the 2014 yearling sales, where the market average was $63,324 and median remained $25,000. That s keeping pressure on pinhookers, who, like the auction houses, see a strong focus on quality that s reflected in JOE DIORIO rate-of-return data for pinhooks between 2009 and 2014: During those years the highest rates of return, between 36% and 40%, were logged by juveniles whose average yearling purchase price was between $47,000 and $145,000. Yearling-to-juvenile reseller Eddie Woods, last season s second-ranked consignor by gross with 99 juveniles sold for $15,039,500, expressed no surprise that the 2-yearold market overall remains popular with buyers and sellers. It s a tremendous marketplace, and the number of good horses that have come out of there is staggering, Woods said. He acknowledged that average inventory prices have climbed but believes there s still value to be found even as the yearling market has strengthened. And his pinhooking strategy has not varied, he said. We stayed with our plan: Buy all the quality you could afford, he said. Because that s all that sells at the end of the day. MW MarketWatch / 8

9 Freshman Sire Preview First-crop juveniles showing promise ahead of sales season Early Impressions BY MICHAEL COMPTON With the 2-year-olds in training sales season commencing this month, attention naturally turns to the newest crop of freshman stallions. In an attempt to predict which first-crop sires will be represented by highdemand juveniles at public auction and ultimately emerge at the top of the heap at year s end as a result of their offspring s accomplishments on the racetrack, MarketWatch sought the impressions of leading 2-year-old consignors for insights that reach beyond conventional statistical data. 2YO consignors discuss their favorite new sires It should come as little surprise that the first-crop sires that recorded the highest yearling sale averages in 2014 are represented by forward juveniles this year. Trappe Shot led all other first-crop sires by yearling average with 73 head sold, averaging a robust $115,712. Now 2, youngsters by the grade II-winning son of Tapit remain in vogue, and consignors are giving them rave reviews. Also being lauded are the first juveniles by Uncle Mo, who is the only other first-crop sire with a six-figure yearling sale average ($108,642) from 106 sold. Haynesfield, who ranked ninth in yearling average ($55,965) on 53 head sold, is another sire drawing generous praise for his initial crop. I like my Uncle Mos and my Trappe Shots, but that s a very biased statement, Niall Brennan said. I don t have any other 2-year-olds by freshman sires, so I have nothing else to compare them to in my barn. They were the only two sires that stood out to me (at the yearling sales) and the only two that seemed to have a lot of them out there. Since they were the leading sires at the sales, it s no surprise that they are looking nice at this point. Ciaran Dunne of Wavertree Stables, the leading consignor of 2-year-olds in training the last three years, has been struck by FASIG-TIPTON PHOTOS the precociousness of the juveniles in his tutelage by Haynesfield and Uncle Mo. We have a couple of them by Haynesfield that we are pretty high on, Dunne said. They seem to be nice, big horses with good action. They consistently have size and strength, and they have a good way of going. We have some Uncle Mos that we like as well. They are forward and act like they are going to be very quick. Uncle Mo was such a good 2-year-old himself that it isn t a shock that he will get early 2-year-olds. Nick de Meric also holds the 2-year-olds by Haynesfield and Uncle Mo in high regard and says that Cape Blanco and Tizway deserve consideration. Cape Blanco ranked fifth among first-crop sires in yearling average $64,455 from 67 sold while Tizway s yearling average of $81,549 from 45 yearlings sold was fourth-best. The Haynesfields I have are good-moving, strong, and precocious, de Meric said. I have a couple of Cape Blanco colts that I like very much, indeed, and both of them look like they will do turf or dirt. They both get over the ground well and are uncomplicated horses. They are rugged, have great dispositions, and are good movers over the racetrack. I have some Uncle Mos that I like a lot. Some of mine are more precocious than others right now, but overall, they are an impressive group. I think highly of our Tizways, de Meric added. They are attractive, balanced horses with good size and great dispositions. They are very intelligent, and they re fast learners. I would also mention Trappe Shot, Big Drama (Florida), and even Archarcharch as first-crop sires to watch. I like what I see from their 2-year-olds. Another first-crop stallion whose 2-yearolds are commanding attention is Sidney s Candy, a millionaire son of Candy Ride. His 53 yearlings that sold last year averaged $60,294. We have a couple of Sidney s Candys, Dunne said. They are good-moving horses. I m not sure how quick they will be, but they are very athletic. They don t strike me that they are going to be the fastest ones here in a month or two, but they seem to have quality that should show when they go long. They look like they will be nice horses. Dunne says that when it comes to buying yearlings to pinhook he strives to balance the merits of the individual with consideration for the market. It s a combination of both for us, Dunne said. When we re buying, the primary step is the physical. When we short-list, we put MarketWatch / 9

10 Freshman Sire Preview together a group of horses that we think will work for what we want to do. Then we ll go back through them and evaluate them based on their pedigree and what we think we can pay. Our rule of thumb when we re standing there looking at one is: Can we get times the amount we pay for this one next year? If we don t think we can, it s a walk-away situation for us. The problem with first-season sires is that they are the flavor of the month, and they kind of creep away from us, he continued. Yearlings by first-crop stallions are usually so popular (at the yearling sales) that they fall out of our price range. With Uncle Mo s yearling average north of $100,000, it s difficult for me to sit there and think they are all going to bring $250,000 as 2-year-olds. A lot of times we just get priced out of them (as yearlings), and then the market moves on. Next year there will be a new kid on the block. Emphasizing that he shortlists yearlings without preconceived notions influencing his decisions, Dunne conceded that he focuses on individuals first and foremost. One of the most expensive yearlings we bought last year is by Court Vision, Dunne said. If you had asked me before the yearling sales started if I wanted a Court Vision, I would have told you no. He is a grass horse by Gulch. But the individual ticked all the boxes for us, and nearly $150,000 later we had a Court Vision. I would never have seen that coming. Brennan concurs with Dunne on buying philosophy, adding that value is of prime importance when shopping for yearlings destined for the resale market. The reason that freshman sires can work is that since there are no knocks on them they always give you a chance, Brennan said. The Uncle Mos and Trappe Shots going into this year s sales, if people like them, they are going to buy them because there are no knocks on them. They haven t proved that they aren t going to be good sires. Proven sires are nobrainers; you just get tied on, he added. Most pinhookers can t afford to buy the Tapits and the War Fronts, the top-end sires. Freshman sires have always had an appeal to the pinhooker because they want to find horses that catch their eye that they can afford to buy. Historically, freshman sires present that opportunity. Brennan tabbed New York-based stallion Here Comes Ben, winner of the 2010 Forego Stakes (gr. I), as an under-the-radar first-crop sire with upside. Acknowledging that the son of Street Cry, with just 24 yearlings sold for an average of $25,604, is not as commercially viable as some other more fashionable freshman sires, Brennan is impressed with the development of his 2-year-olds. He might just be a dark horse freshman sire, Brennan said of Here Comes Ben. He probably doesn t have the numbers to actually be a leading stallion, but I have a few by him and they are all very nice. I was impressed with the consistency of them at the yearling sales, and I really like the few that I have. I like their maturity and their strength. They all act quite focused on the racetrack. Raul Reyes of King s Equine believes Trappe Shot will be a leading freshman sire, also noting that the offspring of Dublin and Lonhro who has his first North American crop of 2-year-olds this year are worth keeping an eye on. I am really pleased with the Trappe Shots I have, Reyes said. From what I see, his 2-year-olds should be popular. I believe he is going to be a top stallion. The Dublins have nice bodies, Reyes added. They are big, strong horses that look versatile, like they will go short or long. I also have a Lonhro colt that I m very happy with. They sold well last year, and they impressed me at the yearling sales. Those turf sires usually get grass horses with high action, but the one I have looks like he can run on any surface. He s a nice horse. The Sidney s Candys also look precocious. From an end-user s perspective, trainer Mark Casse, an active buyer of both yearlings and 2-year-olds, much prefers buying horses by first-crop sires as juveniles as opposed to yearlings. Buying a 2-year-old by a freshman sire is a lot less risky than buying a yearling by First-crop sires by 2013 Comparable Index First-crop sires by 2013 Class Performance Index First-crop sires by 2013 N. Hemisphere foals First-crop sires by percent of dams that won at 2 (min. 15 dams) Stallion 13 CI Uncle Mo 2.56 Misremembered 2.39 Gio Ponti 2.14 Spaniard 2.01 Tizway 1.85 J P s Gusto 1.84 Girolamo 1.81 Sidney s Candy 1.79 Trappe Shot 1.75 Cape Blanco (IRE) 1.70 First Dude 1.62 King Puma 1.61 Paddy O Prado 1.61 Court Vision 1.59 Haynesfield 1.54 Stallion 13 CPI Misremembered 4.06 Gio Ponti 3.49 Uncle Mo 3.45 Tizway 3.29 Cape Blanco (IRE) 3.20 King Puma 3.20 Girolamo 2.84 Drosselmeyer 2.73 Sidney s Candy 2.69 Bank Heist 2.54 Twirling Candy 2.53 Spaniard 2.41 Giant Oak 2.34 Trappe Shot 2.31 Haynesfield 2.28 Stallion 13 Foals Cape Blanco (IRE) 173 Uncle Mo 170 Archarcharch 126 Gio Ponti 112 Wilburn 111 Paddy O Prado 108 First Dude 100 Trappe Shot 100 Drosselmeyer 97 Twirling Candy 94 Girolamo 93 Sidney s Candy 90 Haynesfield 83 Dublin 75 Tizway 75 Stallion Dams (%) Uncle Mo 53 (31%) Tizway 22 (29%) Gone Astray 21 (28%) Sidney s Candy 25 (28%) Dublin 19 (25%) Haynesfield 21 (25%) American Lion 17 (24%) Girolamo 22 (24%) Cape Blanco (IRE) 40 (23%) Drosselmeyer 20 (21%) First Dude 21 (21%) Trappe Shot 20 (20%) Twirling Candy 19 (20%) Gio Ponti 21 (19%) MarketWatch / 10

11 Freshman Sire Preview a freshman sire (for end-users) because you get to see the product perform, Casse said. I have spent some money on yearlings by first-crop sires that by the time I got them into training I was not real happy with my purchases. At 2-year-old sales you get to see performance, so that can easily change your tune. Casse is no stranger to success when it comes to gambling on juveniles by first-crop sires. Casse bought graded stakes winners Spring in the Air and Spring Venture as juveniles from Spring At Last s first crop in 2012 and nabbed Palos Verdes Stakes (gr. II) winner Conquest Two Step at auction from Two Step Salsa s first crop in I didn t look at any of Spring At Last s yearlings that year, but when I got to the 2-year-old sales I saw a filly (Spring in the Air) who really impressed me. She went on to win the Alcibiades (gr. I) for us. The Two Step Salsa colt is another one. I wouldn t have bought him as a yearling, but watching him perform on the track convinced me. Like most everyone else Casse is impressed with the flair of Trappe Shot s offspring so much so that he was the underbidder on Trappe Shot s $600,000 yearling colt bought by Juddmonte Farms at last year s Keeneland September sale. As far as the 2-year-olds in his barn, Casse indicated his charges by Twirling Candy and Gio Ponti are noteworthy, and he also fancies the Uncle Mos he has seen. I like the way that the Twirling Candys move over the racetrack, Casse said. And Gio Ponti has a chance to do well. His horses look like they will go on. Judging by the ability that their 2-year-olds are exhibiting, the 2015 class of freshman stallions appears to be a promising one. Of course, time will tell. In offering a final assessment of the first-crop sire picture, de Meric declared with conviction, If three or four of us are hitting on the same stallions, I would say that those are the best young stallions to watch closely. If de Meric s conclusion rings true, it appears that Trappe Shot, Uncle Mo, and Haynesfield are clearly the early favorites to get the next chip off the old block and claim the title of leading freshman sire in MW First-crop sires by 2014 mares bred Stallion 14 MB (% chg 13 Fls- 14 MB) 13 Fls Uncle Mo 166 (-2.4%) 170 Gio Ponti 154 (38%) 112 Cape Blanco (IRE) 141 (-18%) 173 Tizway 141 (88%) 75 First Dude 132 (32%) 100 Paddy O Prado 132 (22%) 108 Archarcharch 129 (2.4%) 126 Trappe Shot 122 (22%) 100 Wilburn 122 (10%) 111 Sidney s Candy 120 (33%) 90 Drosselmeyer 118 (22%) 97 Ice Box 102 (38%) 74 Haynesfield 101 (22%) 83 Courageous Cat 91 (160%) 35 Regal Ransom 88 (80%) 49 First-crop sires by 2014 N. Hemisphere foals Stallion 14 Fls (% chg Fls) 13 Fls Archarcharch 131 (4.0%) 126 Paddy O Prado 125 (16%) 108 Tizway 113 (51%) 75 Wilburn 106 (-4.5%) 111 Uncle Mo 99 (-42%) 170 Cape Blanco (IRE) 98 (-43%) 173 First Dude 98 (-2.0%) 100 Trappe Shot 90 (-10%) 100 Regal Ransom 88 (80%) 49 Gio Ponti 87 (-22%) 112 Drosselmeyer 82 (-15%) 97 Court Vision 79 (46%) 54 Gone Astray 79 (6.8%) 74 Sidney s Candy 79 (-12%) 90 Ice Box 69 (-6.8%) 74 First-crop sires by percent of dams runners to win at 2 (min. 40 winners) Stallion Dams 2YO Wnrs (% Rnrs) First Dude 82 (29%) Trappe Shot 65 (28%) Haynesfield 69 (27%) American Lion 54 (26%) Big Drama 44 (26%) Drosselmeyer 75 (26%) Ice Box 46 (26%) Gio Ponti 78 (25%) Sidney s Candy 64 (25%) Uncle Mo 104 (25%) Twirling Candy 57 (24%) Wilburn 62 (24%) Archarcharch 75 (23%) Cape Blanco (IRE) 95 (23%) First-crop sires by 2014 yearling average Stallion 14 Yrlgs Sold 14 Yrlg Avg. 14 Yrlg Med. Trappe Shot 73 $115,712 $85,000 Uncle Mo 106 $108,642 $75,000 Gio Ponti 66 $93,348 $75,000 Tizway 45 $81,549 $50,000 Cape Blanco (IRE) 67 $64,455 $40,000 Drosselmeyer 58 $60,647 $40,000 Sidney s Candy 51 $60,294 $47,000 Haynesfield 53 $55,965 $47,000 Big Drama 32 $54,203 $27,500 Ice Box 13 $51,654 $23,000 Factum 3 $50,667 $45,000 Giant Oak 11 $48,336 $45,000 Girolamo 32 $43,006 $23,000 Twirling Candy 51 $40,955 $30,000 Telling 10 $38,220 $6,250 MarketWatch / 11

12 Freshman Sire Preview Freshman Sires by the Numbers BY IAN TAPP s we look ahead to the group of A new sires that will be represented by progeny at the 2-year-old sales and on the racetrack in 2015, the next eight pages contain charts and tables of the data we know about them to this point. The pie chart below represents the top 10% of first-crop yearlings (excludes short yearlings) and is essentially a snapshot of how the commercial market ranked each sire s offerings. Uncle Mo was preferred by a slight margin over Trappe Shot, with Gio Ponti a clear third. Tizway, Cape Blanco, Drosselmeyer, and Sidney s Candy were all well represented with top yearlings, though they were clearly in the second tier. But the yearling market can be wrong. In recent years we can note that Malibu Moon, Not For Love, and Unusual Heat all of whom entered stud in regional markets were not even on the commercial radar with their first yearlings. Each of those sires, however, currently leads his respective stallion crop by Average Earnings Index (AEI). Beginning on page 12, we profile each stallion by first-crop yearlings and their dams, including a breakdown of the dams level of best race (LOBR) and level of best produce (LOBPr.). All these data points provide clues as to which freshman sires are best positioned for success. Now, let s watch as their juveniles sort themselves out at auction and on the racetrack. MW Sires of first-crop yearlings sold in top decile Includes 126 first-crop yearlings sold in North America in 2014 for $125,000 or more First Dude; 0.8% Court Vision; 0.8% Archarcharch; 0.8% Paddy O Prado; 1.6% Ice Box; 1.6% Friesan Fire; 1.6% Dublin; 1.6% Haynesfield; 2.4% Girolamo; 2.4% Giant Oak; 0.8% Regal Ransom; 0.8% Telling; 0.8% Twirling Candy; 0.8% Victor s Cry; 0.8% Uncle Mo; 24% Big Drama; 3.2% Sidney s Candy; 4.0% Drosselmeyer; 5.6% Trappe Shot; 19% Cape Blanco; 7.1% Tizway; 7.9% Gio Ponti; 12% MarketWatch / 12

13 Freshman Sire Preview American n Lion Archarcharch h rama Big Drama Cape E) Blanco (IRE) Courageous t Cat Court n Vision Drosselmeyer r n Dublin First e Dude General s Quarters Oak Giant Oak Ponti Gio Ponti o Girolamo Haynesfield d Here n Comes Ben x Ice Box Misremembered d Paddy o O Prado Regal m Ransom Sidney s y Candy g Telling y Tizway Trappe t Shot Twirling y Candy o Uncle Mo Wilburn Yearling sales price distribution by sire Yearling Distribution for Sires $5,000+ Sires that stood their first season in North America for a fee of $5,000 or more < $25,000 $25,000-$49,999 $50,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000-$199,999 $200,000+ Top 20 first-crop yearlings of 2014 by sales price Sex Sire Dam (Dam YOB) Sale Price Consignor Buyer Colt Trappe Shot Winning Call (1998) KEESEP $600,000 Gainesway Juddmonte Farms Colt Uncle Mo Stormy Renee (2005) KEESEP $550,000 Woods Edge Farm M.V. Magnier Filly Gio Ponti Shandra Smiles (1998) FTSAUG $500,000 Warrendale Sales John Ferguson Colt Cape Blanco (IRE) Belterra (1999) KEESEP $450,000 Four Star Sales Albaugh Family Stables Colt Gio Ponti Eltimaas (2007) KEESEP $450,000 Woods Edge Farm Tanma Corp. Filly Uncle Mo Erica s Melody (1999) FTSAUG $450,000 Hill n Dale Sales Agency Craig Bernick Colt Tizway Lady Nichola (2001) FTSAUG $425,000 Taylor Made Sales Agency Matthew Schera Filly Tizway Vindy City (2007) FTSAUG $425,000 Woodford Thoroughbreds Whisper Hill Farm Colt Trappe Shot Mayhavebeentheone (2000) FTSAUG $400,000 Nursery Place Matthew Schera Colt Uncle Mo Eagle Sound (2003) KEESEP $390,000 Paramount Sales Shortleaf Stable Colt Trappe Shot Foxy Friend (2001) KEESEP $385,000 Baccari Bloodstock Crupi s New Castle Farm Colt Trappe Shot Songfest (2002) KEESEP $380,000 Four Star Sales Juddmonte Farms Colt Uncle Mo Southern Charmer (2006) FTSAUG $375,000 Summerfield Ice Wine Stable & Aisling Duignan Colt Uncle Mo Hi Lili (2003) KEESEP $320,000 Denali Stud Conquest Stables Filly Uncle Mo Therese (2005) FTSAUG $310,000 Four Star Sales Fox Hill Farm Colt Drosselmeyer Queen of Empire (2006) FTSAUG $300,000 Gainesway Alex & JoAnn Lieblong Colt Trappe Shot Broad Sound (2001) FTSAUG $300,000 Four Star Sales Alex & JoAnn Lieblong Colt Trappe Shot V V S Flawless (1999) KEESEP $300,000 James M. Herbener Jr. Shortleaf Stable Colt Uncle Mo Sparkling City (2007) KEESEP $300,000 Baccari Bloodstock Crupi s New Castle Farm Colt Drosselmeyer Early Vintage (2004) KEESEP $280,000 Indian Creek Sallusto & Albina MarketWatch / 13

14 Freshman Sire Preview AMERICAN LION Tiznow Storm Tide, by Storm Cat 2015 Fee $5, Fee $5, Live Foals CI CPI 1.52 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.99 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.69 Avg. Dam Age First Win 2.94 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.90 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 26% No. Sold 37 Average $17,168 Median $12,000 Maximum Price $67,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (2.7%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 9 (24%) ARCHARCHARCH Arch Woodman s Dancer, by Woodman 2015 Fee $9, Fee $10, Live Foals CI CPI 1.77 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.59 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.74 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.15 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.59 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 23% No. Sold 83 Average $27,766 Median $17,000 Maximum Price $130,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (1.2%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 9 (11%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 29 (35%) Rnr Pl Wnr SP SW G2/3SW G1SW 0% 0% Rnr 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pl Wnr SP SW G2/3SW G1SW BIG DRAMA Montbrook Riveting Drama, by Notebook 2015 Fee $10, Fee $10, Live Foals CI CPI 2.06 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.07 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.80 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.20 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.30 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 26% No. Sold 28 Average $58,304 Median $27,500 Maximum Price $230,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 2 (7.1%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 4 (14%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 10 (36%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 19 (68%) CAPE BLANCO (IRE) Galileo (IRE) Laurel Delight (GB), by Presidium (GB) 2015 Fee 2,500, Fee $17, Live Foals CI CPI 3.20 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.34 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.71 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.08 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.09 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 23% No. Sold 60 Average $66,900 Median $42,500 Maximum Price $450,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 6 (10%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 9 (15%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 22 (37%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 43 (72%) 0% 0% Rnr 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Rnr Pl Wnr Pl SP SW WnrG2/3SW 0% 0% Rnr 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Rnr Pl Wnr Pl SP SW WnrG2/3SW COURAGEOUS CAT Storm Cat Tranquility Lake, by Rahy 2015 Fee $6, Fee $10, Live Foals CI CPI 2.07 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.83 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.87 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.11 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.76 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 15% No. Sold 10 Average $32,400 Median $30,000 Maximum Price $80,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (10%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 8 (80%) COURT VISION Gulch Weekend Storm, by Storm Bird 2012 Fee $9, Live Foals CI CPI 2.22 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.13 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.81 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.05 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.67 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 22% 2015 Fee Can$7,500 No. Sold 20 Average $38,533 Median $26,680 Maximum Price $147,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (5.0%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 4 (20%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 10 (50%) 0% 0% Rnr 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Rnr Pl Wnr Pl SP SW WnrG2/3SW 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MarketWatch / 14

15 Freshman Sire Preview DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet 2015 Fee $15, Fee $17, Live Foals CI CPI 2.73 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 5.10 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.76 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.08 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.39 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 26% No. Sold 53 Average $63,934 Median $40,000 Maximum Price $300,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 4 (7.5%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 7 (13%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 20 (38%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 42 (79%) DUBLIN Afleet Alex Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird 2015 Fee $6, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 1.84 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.64 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.76 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.12 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.82 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 19% No. Sold 31 Average $43,994 Median $45,000 Maximum Price $140,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 2 (6.5%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 11 (35%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 17 (55%) 0% 0% Rnr 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Rnr Pl Wnr Pl SP SW WnrG2/3SW FIRST DUDE Stephen Got Even Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike 2015 Fee $7, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 1.56 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.82 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.77 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.08 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.15 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 29% No. Sold 33 Average $31,642 Median $20,000 Maximum Price $130,000 No. Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (3.0%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 5 (15%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 15 (45%) GENERAL QUARTERS Sky Mesa Ecology, by Unbridled s Song 2015 Fee $5, Fee $8, Live Foals CI CPI 1.19 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 3.88 Avg. Dam Age First Start 3.06 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.42 Avg. Dam Start First Win 5.91 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 23% No. Sold 12 Average $14,433 Median $10,750 Maximum Price $55,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 1 (8.3%) GIANT OAK Giant s Causeway Crafty Oak, by Crafty Prospector 2015 Fee $7, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 2.34 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 5.21 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.76 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.15 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.86 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 24% No. Sold 10 Average $53,050 Median $47,500 Maximum Price $170,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (10%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (10%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 3 (30%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 6 (60%) GIO PONTI Tale of the Cat Chipeta Springs, by Alydar 2015 Fee $15, Fee $20, Live Foals CI CPI 3.49 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.81 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.84 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.12 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.79 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 25% No. Sold 57 Average $95,684 Median $80,000 Maximum Price $500,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 8 (14%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 15 (26%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 32 (56%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 48 (84%) MarketWatch / 15

16 Freshman Sire Preview GIROLAMO A.P. Indy Get Lucky, by Mr. Prospector 2015 Fee $5, Fee $15, Live Foals CI CPI 2.84 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 5.48 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.80 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.12 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.88 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 21% No. Sold 29 Average $40,007 Median $15,000 Maximum Price $230,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 2 (6.9%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 3 (10%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 5 (17%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 14 (48%) HAYNESFIELD Speightstown Nothing Special, by Tejabo 2015 Fee $10, Fee $10, Live Foals CI CPI 2.28 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 5.01 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.66 Avg. Dam Age First Win 2.98 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.30 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 27% No. Sold 50 Average $57,243 Median $49,000 Maximum Price $160,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 3 (6.0%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 21 (42%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 42 (84%) HERE COMES BEN Street Cry (IRE) Chasetheragingwind, by Dayjur 2015 Fee $7, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 1.33 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.44 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.77 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.09 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.39 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 30% No. Sold 21 Average $26,167 Median $25,000 Maximum Price $77,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (4.8%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 12 (57%) ICE BOX Pulpit Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat 2015 Fee $7, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 1.49 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.00 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.72 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.11 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.68 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 26% No. Sold 12 Average $53,458 Median $22,500 Maximum Price $230,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (8.3%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 2 (17%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 3 (25%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 5 (42%) MISREMEMBERED Candy Ride (ARG) Beyond Perfection, by Quack 2015 Fee $3, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 4.06 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.05 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.69 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.02 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.87 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 18% No. Sold 14 Average $24,571 Median $18,000 Maximum Price $95,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (7.1%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 5 (36%) PADDY O PRADO El Prado (IRE) Fun House, by Prized 2015 Fee $9, Fee $15, Live Foals CI CPI 2.26 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.76 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.81 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.19 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.28 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 22% No. Sold 47 Average $26,902 Median $20,000 Maximum Price $160,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 2 (4.3%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 2 (4.3%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 20 (43%) MarketWatch / 16

17 Freshman Sire Preview REGAL RANSOM Distorted Humor Kelli s Ransom, by Red Ransom 2015 Fee $5, Fee $7, Live Foals CI CPI 1.45 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.24 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.74 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.12 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.80 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 18% No. Sold 21 Average $15,405 Median $4,500 Maximum Price $130,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (4.8%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (4.8%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 3 (14%) SIDNEY S CANDY Candy Ride (ARG) Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat 2015 Fee $15, Fee $15, Live Foals CI CPI 2.69 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.82 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.66 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.03 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.36 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 25% No. Sold 44 Average $61,636 Median $46,000 Maximum Price $245,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 2 (4.5%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 5 (11%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 15 (34%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 36 (82%) TELLING A.P. Indy Well Chosen, by Deputy Minister 2015 Fee $10, Fee $6, Live Foals CI CPI 0.81 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.05 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.86 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.21 Avg. Dam Start First Win 5.78 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 34% No. Sold 8 Average $47,125 Median $16,000 Maximum Price $180,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (13%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (13%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 2 (25%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 3 (38%) TIZWAY Tiznow Bethany, by Dayjur 2015 Fee $15, Fee $25, Live Foals CI CPI 3.29 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.77 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.70 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.08 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.51 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 17% No. Sold 43 Average $83,481 Median $50,000 Maximum Price $425,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 5 (12%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 10 (23%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 16 (37%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 33 (77%) TRAPPE SHOT Tapit Shopping, by Private Account 2015 Fee $10, Fee $10, Live Foals CI CPI 2.31 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.10 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.77 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.04 Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.78 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 28% No. Sold 62 Average $125,968 Median $100,000 Maximum Price $600,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 11 (18%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 24 (39%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 46 (74%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 59 (95%) TWIRLING CANDY Candy Ride (ARG) House of Danzing, by Chester House 2015 Fee$10, Fee $15, Live Foals CI CPI 2.53 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.57 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.72 Avg. Dam Age First Win 3.20 Avg. Dam Start First Win 4.12 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 24% No. Sold 50 Average $41,174 Median $32,500 Maximum Price $180,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (2.0%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (2.0%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 11 (22%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 31 (62%) MarketWatch / 17

18 Freshman Sire Preview UNCLE MO Indian Charlie Playa Maya, by Arch 2015 Fee $25, Fee $35, Live Foals CI CPI 3.45 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.29 Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.73 Avg. Dam Age First Win 2.96 Avg. Dam Start First Win 2.98 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 25% No. Sold 95 Average $111,663 Median $75,000 Maximum Price $550,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 19 (20%) No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 30 (32%) No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 56 (59%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 85 (89%) WILBURN Bernardini Moonlight Sonata, by Carson City 2015 Fee $6, Fee $6, Live Foals CI CPI 1.44 Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.20 Avg. Dam Age 1st Start 2.83 Avg. Dam Age 1st Win 3.28 Avg. Dam Start 1st Win 5.03 % Dams Rnrs to Win at 2 24% No. Sold 49 Average $23,745 Median $10,000 Maximum Price $120,000 No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 6 (12%) No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 15 (31%) Freshman sire statistics Listed below are statistics for stallions whose first crop are 2-year-olds of 2015, with a minimum of 10 foals born in North America in Listed for each stallion are the 2012 fee on which the current 2-year-olds were bred and the 2015 fee. 13 Foals is the number of North American foals that are 2-year-olds of 2015; 13 CI (Comparable Index) and 13 CPI (Class Performance Index) are based on the mares that produced those foals. 14 Foals reflects registered foals of 2014; 14 CI and CPI are based on the dams of those foals. 14 MB is the number of mares bred in the Northern Hemisphere in 2014; 14 CI MB and 14 CPI MB are based on the mares bred. Sale averages are for 2014 and include only North American sales. Dams that Won at 2 (%) refers to the number and percentage of dams of 2013 foals that won as 2-yearolds. Dams Fls 2YO Wnrs (%) and Fls 2YO SW (%) refer to the number and percentage of the 2013 dams runners that won as a 2-year-old and won a stakes as a 2-year-old, respectively. Stallion Sire 12 Fee 15 Fee NH 13 Fls 13 CI 13 CPI 14 NH Fls 14 CI 14 CPI 14 MB 14 MB 14 MB CI CPI 13 Wnlg Med. (No. Sold) 14 Yrlg Med. (No. Sold) Dams that Won at 2 (%) Dams Fls 2YO Wnrs (%Rnrs) Dams Fls 2YO SWs (%Rnrs) Adios Charlie Indian Charlie $3,500 $3, $12,000 (3) $17,000 (6) 8 (35%) 27 (33%) 5 (6.1%) Albertus Maximus Albert the Great $9,000 (11) 14 (23%) 30 (18%) 2 (1.2%) American Lion Tiznow $5,000 $5, $16,500 (14) $9,500 (44) 24 (33%) 54 (26%) 4 (1.9%) Archarcharch Arch $10,000 $9, $34,500 (20) $18,000 (101) 26 (21%) 75 (23%) 5 (1.5%) Attempted Humor Distorted Humor (27%) 3 (33%) Backtalk Smarty Jones $3,500 $3, $4,500 (3) 2 (10%) 4 (36%) Bank Heist Maria s Mon $2,500 $2, (9.1%) 2 (18%) Big Drama Montbrook $10,000 $10, $20,000 (5) $27,500 (32) 22 (31%) 44 (26%) 7 (4.1%) Bold Chieftain Chief Seattle $3, $10,750 (2) 10 (50%) 9 (17%) 1 (1.9%) Bulldogger Dixie Union $3,850 (4) 1 (8.3%) 8 (33%) 1 (4.2%) Cape Blanco (IRE) Galileo (IRE) $17, $38,000 (17) $40,000 (67) 70 (40%) 95 (23%) 8 (1.9%) Coast Guard Stormy Atlantic $1,000 $1, $6,000 (5) 4 (29%) 14 (27%) Courageous Cat Storm Cat $10,000 $6, $28,000 (2) $30,000 (13) 7 (20%) 14 (15%) 2 (2.2%) Court Vision Gulch $9, $45,000 (3) $23,920 (21) 13 (24%) 26 (22%) 3 (2.5%) Crown of Thorns Repent $4,000 $2, $15,000 (1) $5,000 (10) 10 (40%) 11 (23%) 1 (2.1%) Custom for Carlos More Than Ready $3,000 $3, $13,000 (19) 14 (28%) 27 (18%) 2 (1.3%) D Funnybone D wildcat $3,500 $2, $18,000 (7) $16,000 (13) 9 (24%) 22 (24%) 3 (3.2%) Drosselmeyer Distorted Humor $17,500 $15, $50,000 (25) $40,000 (58) 33 (34%) 75 (26%) 13 (4.6%) Dublin Afleet Alex $7,500 $6, $48,000 (5) $19,000 (38) 26 (35%) 36 (19%) 8 (4.3%) Due Date El Prado (IRE) $2,000 $2, $1,200 (5) 4 (11%) 11 (12%) 1 (1.1%) E Z s Gentleman Yankee Gentleman $2,500 $2, $8,000 (7) 3 (23%) 1 (9.1%) Etched Forestry $3,500 $3, (5.3%) 10 (14%) MarketWatch / 18

19 Freshman Sire Preview Freshman Sire Statistics (cont d) Stallion Sire 12 Fee 15 Fee NH 13 Fls 13 CI 13 CPI 14 NH Fls 14 CI 14 CPI 14 MB 14 MB 14 MB CI CPI 13 Wnlg Med. (No. Sold) 14 Yrlg Med. (No. Sold) Dams that Won at 2 (%) Dams Fls 2YO Wnrs (%Rnrs) Dams Fls 2YO SWs (%Rnrs) Euroears Langfuhr $3,000 $2, $2,500 (4) $4,200 (3) 12 (38%) 17 (24%) 2 (2.8%) Everyday Heroes Awesome Again $1,500 $1, $6,000 (1) 9 (53%) 9 (18%) Exhi Maria s Mon $4,852 (1) $10,000 (9) 11 (41%) 13 (16%) 7 (8.8%) Ez Dreamer In Excess (IRE) $8,250 (6) 5 (36%) 14 (24%) 2 (3.4%) Factum Storm Cat $10, $45,000 (3) 10 (53%) 22 (42%) 5 (9.6%) First Dude Stephen Got Even $7,500 $7, $32,000 (11) $18,000 (40) 26 (26%) 82 (29%) 8 (2.8%) Friesan Fire A.P. Indy $4,000 $4, $30,000 (3) $25,000 (17) 14 (22%) 22 (16%) 1 (0.7%) Gayego Gilded Time $22,871 (6) 5 (21%) 2 (8.3%) General Quarters Sky Mesa $8,500 $5, $12,000 (4) $8,500 (17) 5 (12%) 17 (23%) 2 (2.7%) Get Rich Quick Seeking the Gold $2,500 $5, $2,500 (5) 1 (5.6%) Giant Oak Giant s Causeway $7,500 $7, $17,000 (5) $45,000 (11) 20 (48%) 32 (24%) 6 (4.5%) Giant Surprise Giant s Causeway $3,500 $2, $11,500 (2) $16,000 (7) 6 (18%) 6 (10%) 1 (1.7%) Gio Ponti Tale of the Cat $20,000 $15, $120,000 (9) $75,000 (66) 32 (29%) 78 (25%) 25 (8.1%) Girolamo A.P. Indy $15,000 $5, $32,500 (10) $23,000 (32) 29 (31%) 63 (21%) 7 (2.3%) Gone Astray Dixie Union $4,500 $4, $15,500 (6) $14,000 (33) 26 (35%) 39 (21%) 4 (2.2%) Haynesfield Speightstown $10,000 $10, $61,000 (12) $47,000 (53) 33 (40%) 69 (27%) 12 (4.7%) Here Comes Ben Street Cry (IRE) $7,500 $7, $19,000 (6) $25,000 (24) 16 (32%) 36 (30%) 3 (2.5%) Hunt Crossing Corinthian $1,500 $1, (19%) 6 (26%) 3 (13%) Ice Box Pulpit $7,500 $7, $100,000 (3) $23,000 (13) 23 (31%) 46 (26%) 5 (2.8%) Indy Express A.P. Indy $1,500 $1, (12%) 2 (9.5%) Informed Tiznow $2,500 $2, $5,750 (2) 4 (14%) Interactif Broken Vow $2,000 $2, $2,000 (1) $2,200 (13) 12 (35%) 26 (21%) 4 (3.3%) J P s Gusto Successful Appeal $3,500 $2, $9,000 (3) $8,000 (8) 3 (10%) 30 (38%) 6 (7.6%) Kennedy A.P. Indy $3,000 $2, $4,000 (7) 7 (47%) 9 (23%) 6 (15%) King Puma Forest Wildcat (36%) 4 (11%) Misremembered Candy Ride (ARG) $7,500 $3, $33,000 (2) $16,000 (16) 21 (55%) 14 (18%) 2 (2.5%) Native Ruler Elusive Quality $2,000 $2, $10,000 (5) 6 (33%) 8 (21%) 1 (2.6%) Paddy O Prado El Prado (IRE) $15,000 $9, $36,000 (11) $20,000 (53) 28 (26%) 67 (22%) 6 (2.0%) Proudinsky (GER) Silvano (GER) $2,000 $2, $1,700 (1) 4 (27%) 4 (16%) Rallying Cry War Chant $200 $ $4,100 (2) 3 (20%) Recap Storm Cat $2,700 (5) 8 (15%) 1 (1.8%) Reflect Times (JPN) French Deputy $1,000 $1, (40%) Regal Ransom Distorted Humor $7,500 $5, $9,500 (5) $4,500 (21) 12 (24%) 20 (18%) 2 (1.8%) Schramsberg Storm Cat $13,458 (4) 13 (45%) 5 (9.1%) 2 (3.6%) Sidney s Candy Candy Ride (ARG) $15,000 $15, $81,000 (14) $47,000 (51) 38 (42%) 64 (25%) 12 (4.6%) Sierra Sunset Bertrando $2,500 $2, $4,500 (13) 11 (34%) 23 (32%) 1 (1.4%) Silver Mountain Victory Gallop $2,000 $2, $1,350 (2) 3 (16%) 7 (17%) Slew s Tiznow Tiznow $2,500 $2, $10,000 (4) 7 (32%) 13 (26%) 2 (4.0%) Society s Chairman Not Impossible (IRE) $10,120 (13) 8 (42%) 10 (26%) 1 (2.6%) Spaniard Candy Ride (ARG) $3, $10,580 (6) 11 (52%) 31 (36%) 7 (8.1%) Telling A.P. Indy $6,500 $10, $38,000 (1) $6,250 (10) 3 (14%) 14 (33%) 1 (2.4%) Tiz the One Tiznow $1, $2,850 (2) $5,000 (19) 6 (16%) 23 (24%) 1 (1.1%) Tizway Tiznow $25,000 $15, $45,000 (8) $50,000 (45) 34 (45%) 35 (17%) 8 (3.8%) Trappe Shot Tapit $10,000 $10, $66,000 (20) $85,000 (73) 33 (33%) 65 (28%) 3 (1.3%) Twirling Candy Candy Ride (ARG) $15,000 $10, $25,000 (13) $30,000 (51) 26 (28%) 57 (24%) 9 (3.8%) Uncle Mo Indian Charlie $35,000 $25, $110,000 (15) $75,000 (106) 88 (52%) 104 (25%) 30 (7.2%) Victor s Cry Street Cry (IRE) $14,726 (12) 8 (24%) 19 (19%) Vineyard Haven Lido Palace (CHI) $3,000 $2, $6,000 (5) 5 (50%) 3 (13%) Wilburn Bernardini $6,500 $6, $26,000 (18) $12,000 (64) 21 (19%) 62 (24%) 7 (2.7%) MarketWatch / 19

20 Unproven Sires Right or wrong, the market evaluates unproven stallions by race record, pedigree, and looks ANNE M. EBERHARDT Guessing Game BY ALAN PORTER Can we pick winners among mainstream sire prospects? Age, if we are fortunate, teaches many things. One of those is humility, and nothing hands out lessons in that department like the Thoroughbred racehorse. This particularly applies with regard to picking winners and losers among unproven stallions. There was a stage when I believed that it was reasonably possible to conclude the prospects of a new stallion by considering his racing performance and pedigree, but time has disabused me of that notion. In fact, I ve come to the conclusion that the usual criteria are likely more relevant for stallion promotion than for stallion prediction. Having written literally hundreds of stallion ads, I ve come to appreciate that a stallion ideally needs what songwriters call the hook, the catchy line or riff that sells the song. The hook for a stallion prospect might be a defining performance (or the suggestion of unfulfilled brilliance), or being by a horse considered to be a sire of sires, or coming from a stallion-producing family. The collective mind of the market generally perceives these as key factors, but it s worth examining how they actually correlate to success as progenitor. With larger books leading to a smaller pool of commercial stallions, I would suggest that once a stallion achieves a level of performance sufficient to become a mainstream Kentucky sire with rare exceptions having a grade I win or being a very good grade II winner the narrow talent range renders the differences in racing ability insignificant in terms of sire potential. Or to put it another way, racing class is a major factor discriminating potential mainstream commercial stallions from the population at large but a bad discriminator among those chosen to join the mainstream. Turning to pedigree, another factor that earns a lot of attention with regard to stallion potential is the sire of sires factor. My colleague Byron Rogers has argued that the concept of a sire of sires is something of a myth on the grounds that very few outstanding stallions have multiple sons whose stud careers approach that of their famous father. I take a slightly differ- MarketWatch / 20

21 Unproven Sires ent view, primarily in my definition of what being a sire of sires entails, thinking more in terms of a stallion who has a number of sons that, while not necessarily the equal of their sire, are consistent, reliable begetters of stakes winners. Storm Cat would be one fitting that definition, although, of course, even he had his disappointments. Still, that s a long way from what we might call a non-sire of sires. A prime example would be Alydar, whose best sons provided a succession of stud disappointments (in fact, his only son to outperform expectations was California-based grade II winner Benchmark). From earlier eras, Habitat and Bull Lea come to mind as notoriously bad sires of sires. From such cases we might imply that perhaps some stallions, while excellent sires in their own right, have a tendency to pass on something that inhibits their sons from consistently transmitting their own positive genetic variants for athletic performance. Oddly enough, being by a non-commercial or even downright bad stallion doesn t necessarily mean a stallion won t succeed at stud. Champion sire Vaguely Noble was by a terrible stallion in Vienna, and more recently we have Indian Charlie, Tiznow, and Candy Ride, whose respective sires In Excess, Cee s Tizzy, and Ride the Rails, whatever their merits as stallions, would hardly have been viewed as sire of sires material. If the idea that some stallions are genetically destined to fail as sires of sires is a speculative one, when we consider the sire-producing family hypothesis we are standing on firmer ground as far as molecular science is concerned. The only DNA that is passed consistently via the tail-female line is mitochondrial DNA (mtdna). Since, however, mtdna is believed to be inherited exclusively from the mother, a stallion does not transmit his own mtdna to his offspring. As a point of interest, there are fewer than 20 unique mtdna female lines in the Thoroughbred, with the majority of leading commercial sires coming from a far smaller group. Thus, there are any number of great stallions and ADAM COGLIANES/NYRA City Zip wasn t considered a top stud prospect upon retirement but earned his way into the mainstream SKIP DICKSTEIN stud disasters that share identical mtdna. It s probably that the concept of a stallion family is more due to an immediate female line producing two or three high-quality colts that go on to successful stud careers. Thus, when Special produces Nureyev, and her daughter, Fairy Bridge, produces Sadler s Wells, a stallion family is born. With a growing percentage of horses being bred for the commercial market, looks have also acquired a major role in the marketability of a stallion, and there is no doubt that the really outstanding individual will often quickly build a commercial following. I wouldn t question that exceptional looks are a positive asset, but whether there Tiznow, despite his unfashionable sire line, has emerged as a top commercial sire is much correlation between that and racetrack performance is questionable. There have been any number of very successful sires that didn t own the kind of physique in demand by the commercial market, or didn t sire that type, but that have motivated the market to adjust when their offspring began to run. For a recent example we might reflect on City Zip, whose less than perfect forelegs saw him sell for $9,000 as a short yearling. After making 23 starts in two seasons, City Zip retired to stud in New York. Now standing at Lane s End for a career high of $40,000, City Zip is coming off a year in which both his daughter Dayatthespa and son Work All Week earned Eclipse Awards. Overall, it is hard to escape the conclusion that once a stallion has made it into the select group of horses that are able to retire as mainstream commercial stallions, performance, pedigree, and looks cease to be good discriminatory measures. For example, consider the four sons of Pulpit that won grade I events on dirt and retired to stud in Kentucky. In addition to being by the same sire, and from female lines that had recently produced successful sires, Tapit, Sky Mesa, Purge, and Corinthian pretty much span the breadth of extremities. Their order of merit as sires is in exact reverse order to their merit as runners, at least as measured by Beyer Speed Figures. To compound the paradox, Corinthian, who ran a towering 119 Beyer, is from the stallion family of Nureyev, Sadler s Wells, and Fairy King, his third dam, Number, being a threequarter sister to that trio. It would seem that owning the genetics to be an outstanding runner is a very different matter than owning the genetics to transmit that talent. With that in mind when we turn to the 2015 freshman sires, we are considering a group that will almost certainly contain some surprises, both good and bad. Having come to the conclusion that picking winners and losers prior to their progeny s racing is fairly futile, we can perhaps consider them in the light of the factors that influence commercial expectations. Also, bear in mind that those factors have already come into play in shaping these young stallions destinies, as that perception will have determined the quality of mares bred in early seasons with potential concomitant impact on the opportunities the offspring receive. MW MarketWatch / 21

22 2014 Freshman Sire Recap Size and Athleticism BY IAN TAPP Assessing young sires Quality Road, Super Saver The race for 2014 champion first-crop sire came down to the final week of the year and was settled by a mere $25,367 as Lane s End s Quality Road edged WinStar Farm s Super Saver. This group of new sires looks particularly strong the top three were rounded out by the promising Lookin At Lucky, and 12th on the list was Blame, who had the highest fee in the class upon retirement and whose progeny should be better as they mature. But siring a grade I-winning 2-year-old from your first crop is a windfall for any young sire. Quality Road got Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) winner Hootenanny, whose earnings helped vault his sire ahead of Super Saver late in the year. Super Saver s sons Competitive Edge and I Spent It had run one-two in the grade I Hopeful Stakes earlier in the year. Not surprisingly, the stud fees for both sires were increased to $35,000, and both have long been booked full for Todd Pletcher, who trained both Quality Road and Super Saver during their racing careers, is having success with their progeny, including Competitive Edge for Super Saver and grade II winner Blofeld for Quality Road. We asked Pletcher what similarities he sees between the sires and their progeny. Mainly just their size and length, Pletcher said of the Quality Roads. He was a very leggy horse, and it seems like QUALITY ROAD IN THE WORDS OF LANE S END The international market is definitely a focal point for Lane s End and Quality Road fits that profile. While Quality Road was a superior dirt horse, he is by Elusive Quality, who has sired horses ranging from European champion Elusive Kate to Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Smarty Jones. Fortunately, Quality Road has shown that versatility early on as a sire and it s been very gratifying. The early success of Hootenanny, both in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) and the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, is very promising for Quality Road s future as an international prospect. At Lane s End we ve been very fortunate with horses such as Kingmambo that have had success in both America and Europe, and Quality Road is certainly poised to be that type of horse. Quality Road has had a strong following since his time on the racetrack, particularly because he possessed tremendous speed and was able to carry it over a route of ground. This style of runner is what breeders and buyers are looking for, and it has made him very popular through his first few years at stud. Physically, Quality Road s progeny have been equally impressive and very much like him. They have great length and scope, size, and presence all things buyers look for. They all have Quality Road s frame, and we ve found that he complements a lot of mares in that regard. Hootenanny and dual grade II winner Blofeld are both out of mares from the Storm Cat line. This pedigree angle has worked well, but it also makes sense physically, as Storm Catline mares typically have strength and substance, and those traits complement Quality Road. Generally speaking his progeny have been very sound, easy keepers. When the young horses come in on the farm, we ve found them to be pretty straightforward. Foals and yearlings tend to have one thing or another that requires attention, but for the most part we ve found the Quality Roads to be easy to be around. They are clever horses that look after themselves. They take their work willingly at every stage and are level-headed whether in the stall or turned out. Quality Road has been well received as a commercial sire, and his yearlings have always been in demand. He was in the top three by 2013 first-crop yearling average ($109,750 from 72 sold), and his yearling average was actually up in 2014 prior to the graded stakes wins by Hootenanny and Blofeld. Blofeld was particularly memorable as a yearling. He was still a month away from the sale (he later sold for $275,000 at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August) but already had great presence. When being shown, he just stood there with all the confidence in the world. People say that good horses always look like good horses, and Blofeld definitely did. It s not surprising to see that he s developed into a graded stakes winner who is now on the Kentucky Derby trail. At this stage Quality Road has done all that s been asked of him. Given his raw speed and the precocity of his sire line, we were confident his first 2-year-olds would perform well, but he has certainly exceeded our expectations. To sire a winner at Royal Ascot and the Breeders Cup who is targeting the English classics, a Triple Crown prospect in the U.S., as well as a Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender the progressive filly Overprepared is extraordinary. Quality Road was certainly at his best as he got older, and the strength of his early books leads us to believe more good things lie ahead for him. LEE P. THOMAS MarketWatch / 22

23 2014 Freshman Sire Recap a lot of his babies are. From what I ve seen, it seems like (the Quality Roads) don t want to be what I would describe as early summer 2-year-olds. I didn t have him as an early 2-year-old, but I know that he broke his maiden on Cigar Mile day (Nov. 29, 2008) at Aqueduct, and the ones that we ve been around have seemed to find their rhythm more so in the fall than in early spring or summer. As general manager at Spring Hill Farm, the breeding operation of Quality Road s late breeder and owner Edward P. Evans, Chris Baker was instrumental in Quality Road s development. Baker, who is now chief operating officer at Three Chimneys, noted that Quality Road is noticeably upright in his pasterns and hind leg. Being a little straight in the pastern and hind leg is actually a component of speed, Baker said. When the foot hits the ground, if the pastern isn t buried too deep, they re not losing that energy. Speed is a function of stride rate and stride length, and a slightly upright horse that is breaking his stride over a little faster or pushing off with more direct power from his hind leg can be faster. If they re too straight, then they re jamming their joints, and they won t be around long because the concussive forces aren t being absorbed by the suspensory apparatus. But being a little bit straight, as in the case of Quality Road, it s a positive it s a part of why he was a fast racehorse. Quality Road certainly was fast he won four grade I s and set track records at and nine furlongs. Carrie and Craig Brogden s Machmer Hall bred three mares to Quality Road in his first season and purchased a weanling Quality Road filly out of Over Andover (by War Chant) at the 2014 Keeneland November sale. That filly, SUPER SAVER IN THE WORDS OF WINSTAR FARM Super Saver is best remembered for his length win in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), but don t forget his form as a juvenile. He broke his maiden by seven lengths going a mile at Belmont and capped off his 2-year-old season by setting a stakes record in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. As a graded stakes-winning juvenile and classic-winning 3-year-old, Super Saver presents an appealing profile for both the owner/breeder and the commercial marketplace. Super Saver s progeny consistently have sold better at each subsequent stage of their careers. This trait mirrors Super Saver s own development as a young horse who kept getting better as he got older, peaking in May of his 3-yearold year. In his first crop he had nice weanlings (avg. $61,000 from 22 sold), better yearlings (avg. $100,803 from 65 sold), and exceptional 2-year-olds (avg. $138,452 from 52 sold). From a physical standpoint, Super Saver is a very easy horse to breed to. He might not appear 16.2 hands tall at first glance, but then again well-balanced horses can be deceptive. He is correct, well proportioned, and hard to knock physically as there are no traits that you have to compensate for. He has a beautiful way of moving no knee action and a real daisy cutter stride in that he barely lifts his front feet off the ground when he walks. Super Saver s progeny are also beautifully actioned horses, very efficient and easy on themselves. This action was one thing that became apparent for those watching his first 2-year-olds breeze last year. Most of Super Saver s progeny also share his cool, calm, and collected disposition. When Super Saver comes out of his stall, he assumes his pose, drops his head, and sticks out his tongue something that has become his trademark. This easygoing temperament served him well in training, and he looks to be passing it on to his progeny. A perceived negative for Super Saver when he retired to stud was that he was by Maria s Mon and the jury was out on sons of Maria s Mon at stud. But being that his broodmare sire is A.P. Indy, LOUISE REINAGEL and some of that A.P. Indy quality could be seen coming through in him, helped people get past the unproven sire line. Super Saver s rich female family gave breeders added confidence. There are eight graded stakes winners under his first two dams, and his fourth dam is champion 2-year-old filly and blue hen producer Numbered Account one of the best female families in the stud book. It is likely that his depth of family has helped Super Saver upgrade his mares like he has. The sire line that initially may have been perceived as a negative has actually turned out to be a positive. Being by Maria s Mon out of an A.P. Indy mare, Super Saver s pedigree does not get in the way of many mares in terms of close inbreeding. Broad returns of Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, and even his own broodmare sire line, Seattle Slew, have worked well. Given that Super Saver was extremely effective and raced exclusively on a dirt surface, it is no surprise that his progeny have shown an affinity for that surface. The best results of his top performers Competitive Edge and I Spent It have been on dirt, and, in fact, 90% of Super Saver s progeny earnings have come on dirt. While Super Saver s progeny have been effective at 2, we also expected them to follow their sire s trajectory and excel around two turns at 3. A lot of trainers who have handled his 2-year-olds have told us they feel like there is more to come this year. With Competitive Edge and I Spent It on the Derby trail and Embellish the Lace on the Oaks trail after breaking her maiden by lengths, we hope it will make for an exciting spring. MarketWatch / 23

24 2014 Freshman Sire Recap which cost $112,000, is a pinhook that Machmer Hall plans to offer back as a yearling. I just loved her it was a little bit out of my comfort zone as far as pinhooking a filly, Carrie Brogden said. Actually, that s the most expensive filly we ve ever pinhooked. But I went and looked at her in the field yesterday and thought, Oh, I know why I bought you! (With Quality Roads) I think you have to be careful about the front end sometimes because Elusive Quality can tend to want to throw pigeon-toed horses, she explained. But Quality Road throws a lot of size; he throws pretty heads; long, thin necks; and big shoulders like he has. Brogden also bred mares to Super Saver but said she would never breed the same mare to Quality Road and Super Saver because the stallions are so different physically. When we saw Super Saver off the track, he toed out slightly in one front foot and he was a little lanky, so when we bred to him, we tried to breed more of those big-bodied mares to give him a little more substance, Brogden Blofeld s win in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) lifted Quality Road s 2014 progeny earnings above Super Saver s for good ADAM COGLIANESE/NYRA said. But he tends to throw plenty of leg not giant horses but good-sized horses. He throws a really pretty walk and good balance. Super Saver has far surpassed any expectations that I had. Everyone thought, Another son of Maria s Mon he won the Derby in the slop But obviously at the 2-yearold sales they just stood out. They breezed fast, they looked fast, and they vetted. Super Saver s first 2-yearolds were indeed head-turners at the sales, where in 2014 they generated a higher gross than any other 2-year-old sire except Malibu Moon. Pletcher, having trained the sire to a win in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), wasn t surprised to find them so athletic. Super Saver to me was a really, really beautiful horse. Well-balanced, not too big but scopey enough, he said. I tend to like medium-sized colts, and he kind of fits that mold. We see a lot of his babies Competitive Edge probably being the best example when you stand back away from them you think, Wow, this horse isn t that big. When you step into them Competitive Edge won the Sept. 1 Hopeful Stakes to become Super Saver s first grade I winner and put your chin up to his withers, he s taller than you think. He s just so well-proportioned, so well-balanced that they almost give an appearance that they re smaller than they actually are. Ben Glass, bloodstock adviser for Gary and Mary West, hopes Super Saver s momentum continues into his next crop because he purchased a Super Saver colt out of Charity Girl (by Pulpit) for $260,000 at last year s Keeneland September yearling sale. My notes say, Very athletic, big walk, good shoulder, good bone, so I liked that horse, Glass said. I thought he d be an early 2-yearold, and he s training well right now in Ocala. I liked the fact that it s an early-producing sire line, Glass said of Super Saver s prospects. He and Maria s Mon were good early horses, and that s what we try to buy. We like to buy horses that have a license to be good 2-year-olds and develop into good 3-year-olds because we all know that s where the big bucks are made. MW ADAM COGLIANESE/NYRA $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400, progeny earnings for Quality Road and Super Saver, by date Nov. 2: Blofeld 1st-Nashua Stakes (gr. II) Earnings: $150,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 Sept. 1: Competitive Edge & I Spent It 1st and 2nd-Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) Earnings: $280,000 Aug. 10: I Spent It 1st-Toyota Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) Earnings: $220,000 Oct. 5: Blofeld 1st-Futurity Stakes (gr. II) Earnings: $120,000 Oct. 31: Hootenanny 1st-Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) Earnings: $550,000 $0 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Quality Road Super Saver MarketWatch / 24

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