The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014 Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef
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1 Technical Report TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS hub The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014 Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef Erin Bohensky, Matt Curnock, Sarah Gillet, Jeremy Goldberg, Margaret Gooch, Ally Lankester, Nadine Marshall, Maxine Newlands, Petina Pert, Renae Tobin, Lea Scherl and Samantha Stone-Jovicich
2 The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014 Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef Erin Bohensky 1, Matt Curnock 1, Sarah Gillet 1, Jeremy Goldberg 1,2, Margaret Gooch 3,4, Ally Lankester 1, Nadine Marshall 1, Maxine Newlands 5, Petina Pert 1,6, Renae Tobin 7, Lea Scherl 8 and Samantha Stone-Jovicich 1, 1 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship; 2 College of Business, Law and Governance, James Cook University; 3 Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority; 4 Cairns Institute, James Cook University; 5 School of Arts and Social Sciences, James Cook University; 6 College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University; 7 Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, James Cook University; 8 NQ Dry Tropics NRM Supported by the Australian Government s National Environmental Research Program Project 10.1: Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP)
3 CSIRO This report should be cited as: Bohensky, E., Curnock, M., Gillet, S., Goldberg, J., Gooch, M., Lankester, A., Marshall, N., Newlands, M., Pert, P., Tobin, R., Scherl, L., Stone-Jovicich, S. (2014) The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014, Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef. Report to the National Environmental Research Program. Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited, Cairns (56pp.). Published by the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre on behalf of the Australian Government s National Environmental Research Program (NERP) Tropical Ecosystems (TE) Hub. The Tropical Ecosystems Hub is part of the Australian Government s National Environmental Research Program. The NERP TE Hub is administered in North Queensland by the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited (RRRC). The NERP Tropical Ecosystems Hub addresses issues of concern for the management, conservation and sustainable use of the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and its catchments, tropical rainforests including the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA), and the terrestrial and marine assets underpinning resilient communities in the Torres Strait, through the generation and transfer of world-class research and shared knowledge. This publication is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, information or educational purposes subject to inclusion of a sufficient acknowledgement of the source. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment. While reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. Cover Photograph: Matt Curnock This report is available for download from the NERP Tropical Ecosystems Hub website:
4 SELTMP 2014: DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN THE GREAT BARRIER REEF Table of Contents Overview of the Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program. 3 Summary of the Drivers of Change report... 4 Introduction to Drivers of Change. 5 Approach and Methods.. 8 Driver Categories for Monitoring Economic Social and Cultural Demographic Politics, Management & Governance Information, Communication and Media Science and Technology 45 Examples of Driver Integration through Scenario Analysis in the Region.. 51 References 55 Appendix: Search Terms Used in Media Analysis. 56 SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1
5 SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 2
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11 Global, Regional & Local Scales B. Human and Community Wellbeing Opportunities, Empowerment, Security A. Reef Relationship Who? How many? Where? How? When? Why? Worth? GBR Ecosystem Services C. Indirect Drivers of Change Economic, Social & cultural, Demographic, Politics & management, Communication & media, science & technology D. Direct Drivers of Change Climate change Primary resource industry activities Coastal development SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 8
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20 1.2 Value of Australian dollar USD per 1.00 AUD, monthly average USD per 1.00 AUD SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 17
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29 Monthly percentage Monthly percentage Monthly percentage c Monthly percentage change (turnover) Monthly percentage change (turnover) Clothing, footwear Department and personal Stores accessories Monthly percentage change (turnover) Cafes, restaurants and takeway food Cafes, restaurants and takeway food nge (turnover)
30 SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 27
31 Research Instutions Friends, family, colleagues NGO's / similar Government managers Industry groups / reps Media Social media Low trust High trust SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 28
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41 Legislation, regulation or plan Implementing agency and level Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan (draft) Department of Environment (Federal) The Marine Tourism Contingency Plan for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Dredging and Spoil Disposal Policy (due for review October 2014) Environmental Impact Management Policy (due for review October 2014) QLD Ports Strategy and Ports Bill GBRMPA (Federal) GBRMPA (Federal) GBRMPA (Federal) Department of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning (State) SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 38
42 Information is at the core of decision-making, and communication and media provide mechanisms for information flows among and between managers, resource users and the public. Media outlets regulate visibility of information, and are instrumental in reflecting and shaping public perceptions about the reef. Wishlist Indicators Top news stories Web searches Use of social media Media representations of GBR % of population using internet for information Sources of and trust in information and networks SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 39
43 The news Australians searched for most in 2014 on Yahoo7 SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 40
44 SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 41
45 number of articles number of articles SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 42
46 number of articles number of articles number of articles number of articles SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 43
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51 Images: shoppingcartandshopper.blogspot.com SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 48
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54 Drivers of Change (Economic, Socio- Cultural etc.) Future Scenarios
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59 CONTACT Name: Dr. Erin Bohensky Organisation: CSIRO Land and Water Phone: SELTMP DRIVERS OF CHANGE 56
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