Measuring and predicting success. Simon Shibli

Transcription

1 Measuring and predicting success Simon Shibli

2 Presentation Outline 1. Background context 2. The distribution of Olympic success 3. The distribution of Olympic talent 4. Measuring performance 5. Linking INPUT to OUTPUT

3 1. Background context

4 Number of NOCs Taking Part

5 Number of Athletes Participating

6 Number of Sports Contested

7 Number of Events Contested

8 100% % 80% % 60% 50% 40% 30% % 10% 0% Men Women Mixed

9 NOCs Winning ANY Medal y = x x R² = Number of NOCs Participating

10 Background context Key points The whole world is taking part The supply of success is fixed More nations are winning medals We should expect the price of success to rise.

11 Sourcing the data: Infostrada Podium Performance

12 2. The distribution of Olympic success

13 Number of NOCs Gold Medal Any Medal 1-8 Place Nations Taking Part

14 90% 80% 76% 72% 78% 73% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 63% 62% 39% 39% 57% 37% 63% 52% 44% 28% 28% 54% 50% 39% 40% 27% 60% 58% 45% 45% 31% 28% 48% 34% 45% 33% 54% 51% 50% 40% 40% 38% 27% 26% 58% 37% 28% 56% 56% 42% 42% 26% 26% 20% 21% 18% 19% 22% 10% 0% Nations Winning a Gold Medal % Nations Winning Any Medal % Nations Winning A Top 8 Place %

15 More nations achieving success Measure Change % Change Nations winning a gold medal 19% 26% +7 37% Nations winning any medal 33% 42% +9 27% Nations winning a Top 8 place 45% 56% % Nations winning a Top 16 place 47% 72% %

16 100% 90% 93% 89% 84% 80% 70% 72% 69% 71% 72% 74% 72% 71% 64% 60% 52% 54% 55% 55% 56% 56% 55% 50% 44% 47% 40% 38% 37% 38% 38% 37% 39% 38% 30% 27% 27% 28% 29% 27% 20% 10% 0% Top 3 Top 5 Top 10 Top 20

17 Key Points 1. Around 26% win a gold medal 2. Around 42% win any kind of medal 3. The top 20 nations win around 71% of all medals 4. More nations are achieving some measure of success

18 3. The distribution of Olympic talent

19 The likelihood of being an Olympian World population in ,001,000,000 Olympians at London ,903 World population per Olympian 642,117

20 660,000 World Population per Olympic Athlete , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

21 900, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 96,429 92,521 89,255 78,155 56,024 49,558 41,875 - BRA JPN SIN KOR FRA ESP POR CAN FIN BEL NED SUI AUS DEN EST

22 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 - BRA JPN SIN FRA ESP BEL POR KOR NED CAN SUI DEN AUS FIN EST WORLD

23 3,500,000 3,184,906 3,000,000 2,818,889 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,488,947 1,000, , , , , , , , ,520 71,022 62,541 - NGR GHA KSA ALG KEN GUA TUR WORLD USA RSA SWE HUN

24 Key Points 1. Olympians are rare 2. The production of Olympians favours larger nations 3. Some nations are more efficient producers than others

25 4. Measuring performance

26 EST 32 FIN POR SPLISS nations = 9% of population SPLISS nations = 26% of Olympians SUI 103 DEN 113 BEL 119 NED 188 KOR 248 BRA 258 ESP 278 CAN 281 JPN 295 FRA 330 AUS

27 EST 2 11 POR 1 13 FIN 2 14 BEL 3 16 DEN 5 17 SUI 4 18 NED 8 18 KOR ESP 8 23 AUS 9 23 BRA 8 24 CAN JPN FRA Number of Sports Nations Won Medals In Number of Sports Nations Contested

28 Measure Gold Silver Bronze Total Market Share % Total Medals Points Awarded Total Points , % France (7 th ) Points % South Korea (5 th ) Points %

29 Measure Korea France MS% London % 3.6% MS% Beijing % 3.8% Change in MS% Percentage change in MS% -8% -5%

30 Reference Period Gold Silver Bronze Total Olympic Games Year Cycle 1,065 1,068 1,285 3,418

31 Market Share % 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% SPLISS nations = 9% of population SPLISS nations = 26% of Olympians SPLISS nations = 23% of success 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Australia Japan France South Korea Brazil Spain Netherlands Canada Denmark Switzerland Finland Belgium Portugal All Events Olympic Games Only World Championships Only

32 5. Linking INPUT to OUTPUT

33 Change in Total Medals Won All Other NOCs Change in Gold Medals Won

34 Change in Total Medals Won Change in Gold Medals Won

35 % Change in OUTPUT /12 100% 50% 0% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% -50% -100% % Change in INPUT /12

36 Conclusions SPLISS nations over produce Olympians SPLISS nations over achieve success Success is typically achieved in a minority of sports contested Generally variations in performance over time are modest More money in more medals out Standing still would be an achievement

37 Thank you for listening, any questions? Simon Shibli Sport Industry Research Centre Sheffield Hallam University Collegiate Hall Collegiate Campus Sheffield S10 2BP Tel: