3 GLOBAL FOODSERVICE TRENDS. Bob O'Brien, The NPD Group

Transcription

1 3 GLOBAL FOODSERVICE TRENDS Bob O'Brien, The NPD Group

2 Overview Contrasting market structures around the world Key elements of global performance this decade

3 Foodservice Markets Tracked by NPD CREST PILOT CREST

4 Five things chains can do with CREST Measure share by key business segments Profile strengths and weaknesses of competition Look out at the market to see: Target buyers Menu mix Pricing Position concept for new business segments Identify target consumers by business segment

5 Five things manufacturers can do with CREST Identify chains and segments in which products can be positioned to sell. Understand how customers or prospects are positio ned in the market Identify the best type of chain for new products Match chains with product appeal qualities Understand the potential for a product in a given t ype of chain

6 Annual foodservice spending per person (000) 2,313 2,058 1,647 1,301 1,675 1,407 1,089 1, , USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ^ China represents 8 cities

7 Former British colonies are fertile ground for QSRs Fast Food Full Service Channel Distributions Q Retail On-Site KOR USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* BRA~ CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ~ Brazil represents 15-59, class A-C ^ China represents 22 cities

8 Where people eat their prepared meals is a kind of cultural lens. Where Eaten Distributions Q On Premise At Work In Car 1 At Home Other China has no In Car business 2 US, Canada and Japan have no Street business KOR USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* BRA~ CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ~ Brazil represents 15-59, class A-C ^ China represents 22 cities

9 Lunch is the biggest daypart in most countries. Daypart Distributions Q Morning Meal Lunch Supper PM Snack KOR USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* BRA~ CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ~ Brazil represents 15-59, class A-C ^ China represents 22 cities

10 Former British Empire countries are far more chain dominated than Continental European countries. Chain/Independent Distribution Q Major Chains Small Chains / Indep KOR USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* BRA~ CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ~ Brazil represents 15-59, class A-C ^ China represents 22 cities

11 Since when? Now Oil Russia: 14 Japanese earthquake: 11 European debt: 09 Weakening China: 12 Then Lehman Crisis: 07 Trend Review

12 Where to start?

13 Global markets are evenly split between growth and decline since Traffic Indexed to YE Mar 2016 Great Britain France Germany Italy Spain Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

14 In most markets lunch is the largest daypart. Daypart Distributions Q Morning Meal Lunch Supper PM Snack KOR USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* BRA~ CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ~ Brazil represents 15-59, class A-C ^ China represents 22 cities

15 Lunch is stable around the world outside of a couple of markets Traffic Indexed to YE Mar 2016 Great Britain France Germany Italy Spain Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

16 Morning meal is the only daypart to show growth over a majority of markets since Great Britain France Germany Italy 100 Spain Morning Meal Traffic Indexed to 2011 China 80 US YE Mar 2016 Russia Japan Australia

17 Checks have been consistently up in all but the two weakest European markets. Great Britain 120 France Germany Italy Spain 100 Russia Check Index to 2011 Japan Australia China 80 US YE Mar 2016

18 Breakfast checks are up much more aggressively than are checks in total. Check Index to YE Mar 2016 Great Britain France Germany Italy Spain Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

19 Total Industry Traffic Distribution Chain/Independent Distribution Q Major Chains Small Chains / Indep. USA CAN AUS UK DEU FRA ESP ITA RUS* CHN^ JPN * Russia represents 8 cities ^ China represents 22 cities

20 Chains Traffic Index to YE Mar 2016 GB FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

21 Why do we care about independents? In many countries they account for the majority of industry traffic All over the world independents launch and fail over and over again. A decline of independents represents a decline in new business formation Because of optimism Because of the availability of financing

22 Independents Traffic Index to YE Mar 2016 Great Britain France Germany Italy Spain Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

23 The importance of deals and promotions

24 Non-deal traffic has been down over the past five years and appears to have stabilized recently. Non Deal Traffic Traffic Index to YE Mar 2016 GB FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

25 Deal driven traffic is growing in all but some European markets. Deal Traffic Traffic Index to YE Mar 2016 GB FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN Russia Japan Australia China US Canada

26 So Traffic has stabilized Lots of traffic and check growth at breakfast but not lunch Chains continue to drive markets all around the world Consumers continue to be drawn by deals and promotions over full price meals.

27 CREST shows you Where is the big opportunity? Am I positioned to take advantage of it? Where is the growing opportunity? How am I performing compared to the market? Who are my buyers? What do they like that I m not providing to them? Which competitor is the big winner? Are they taking my customers?