BUYERS VS SUPPLIERS: CHANGING PREFERENCES OF ONE OF THE MAIN GRAIN IMPORTERS

Transcription

1 BUYERS VS SUPPLIERS: CHANGING PREFERENCES OF ONE OF THE MAIN GRAIN IMPORTERS

2 MACROECONOMICS

3 GLOBAL GROWTH: DEVELOPED AND EMERGING MARKETS MARCH 2008 MARCH ,5 % 2 % Emerging Markets Real GDP YoY % Average Developed Markets Real GDP YoY % Average

4 GDP % THE CRISIS IN EMERGING MARKETS: CHINA -7,5%

5 QUANTITATIVE EASING

6 INCREASED DEBT EU USA CHINA rising from 2007 to 2016 in billion USD

7 GRAINS AND ENERGY DOWNFALL S&P Commodities Index (01/01/2007=100) Agriculture Energy China GDP

8 CONCLUSIONS low but steady growth, some signs of recovery very high debts low prices for grains and a very high liquidity

9 FUNDAMENTALS

10 Mln Tons TOTAL WORLD GRAINS production vs ending stocks Production Ending Stocks / / / / / / / / / /18

11 Mln Tons TOTAL WORLD CORN production vs ending stocks Production Ending Stocks / / / / / / / / / /18

12 Mln Tons TOTAL WORLD WHEAT production vs ending stocks Production Ending Stocks / / / / / / / / / /18

13 Mln Tons TOTAL WORLD SOYBEANS production vs ending stocks Production 400 Ending Stocks tm + 31 % / / / / / / / / / /18

14 WHY ALL THIS HAPPENED? favorable wheater increased yields crop increased resistance to climatic adversity

15 NEW ACTORS IN THE WORLD EXPORTS UKRAINE and RUSSIA Wheat export forecast for 2016/ mln ton 13% more than previous record in 2015/16 (39 mln ton)

16 Mln Tons WORLD EXPORT CORN/SOYBEANS 2001/ / % 27% USA Rest of the World 2001/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17

17 Days CORN, SOY, WHEAT STOCKPILES at 30 year average despite higher output year average 95, Global production of corn, soybeans and wheat has surged over the past four 60 years, creating surpluses. Despite that, worldwide inventories of the three crops, measured in days of consumption, have reverted to the 30 years average

18 FINANCIAL MARKET

19 FINANCE IN FINANCIAL MARKETS 1999 vs today TRL USD 37,9 74,6 32,9 69,9 33,5 61, % 1999 today Fonte: Schroders

20 MLN TM WHEAT MARKETS IN COMPARISON Crop and Futures (in million ton 2016) Crop and Futures (in million ton 2013) + 44% ,8 27, Ukranian Production EU Production World Production Futures CBOT

21 THE S&P 500 INDEX %

22 Price USD Price USD PRICES INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE POWER OF THE DOLLAR TRJCBR DXY

23 mb/d mb/d CRUDE OIL Total Stock Ch. E Misc. Demand Supply Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17

24 EUROPEAN UNION

25 Mln Tons GRAINS PRODUCTION VS IMPORT 400 Production Import 18, ,2 + 5,5 mtm + 42 % 2007/ / / / / / / / / /17

26 Mln Tons CORN PRODUCTION VS IMPORT 100 Production Import 11,7 75 Ukraine 1st exporter with 3,31 mlm ton (31/01/2017) 50 7, ,2mtm + 56% 2007/ / / / / / / / / /17

27 Mln Tons WHEAT PRODUCTION VS IMPORT 200 Production Import 150 Ukraine 1st exporter with 510 kton (31/01/2017) ,7 6,2 + 1,5 mtm + 32 % 2007/ / / / / / / / / /17

28 Mln Tons SOYBEANS PRODUCTION VS IMPORT 20 Production Import 12,2 13, ,4 mtm + 11,5% Ukraine 6th exporter with 292 kton (31/01/2017) 2007/ / / / / / / / / /17

29 Kton SUNFLOWER SEED / / /

30 SUNFLOWER MEAL (31/01/2017) Ukraine Export 1,2 mtm 66,6 % Total Import 1,8 mln/t Others Country Export 0,6 mtm 33,3 % Ukraine 1st Exporter

31 ITALY

32 TOTAL IMPORT VS PRODUCTION 2016 Import ,35 % 18,4 mln/t Domestic crop ,65 % 19,45 mln/t Total 37,85 mln tons

33 mln tons TOTAL GRAIN IMPORT EU Extra EU ,6 7,5 + 6, ,

34 mln tons TOTAL WHEAT IMPORT 8 7 EU Extra EU ,8 5,5 + 4, ,

35 mln tons TOTAL DURUM IMPORT 2,8 EU Extra EU 2,4 2 0, ,9 1,6 1,2 0,8 1,5 0,4 0,

36 mln tons TOTAL MAIZE IMPORT 5 EU Extra EU 4 + 1, , ,5 2,

37 OILSEED AND MEALS IMPORT 2016 Of which: 1,94 mtm oilseed +500 k/ton Of which: 2,8 mtm meals mln/t +7% vs 2015

38 k/tons DURUM IMPORT IN 2016 By Country Canada USA Mexico Greece France Australia Kazakhstan Argentina Austria Germany Turkey

39 k/tons WHEAT IMPORT IN 2016 By Country France Hungary Ukraina Austria Germany USA Canada Romania Croatia Slovakia Russia Slovenia Moldova

40 k/tons MAIZE IMPORT IN 2016 By Country Ukraine Hungary France Austria Romania Slovenia Russia Croatia Bulgaria

41 MAIZE IMPORT 2 mtm come to Italy by rail or truck from the Balkan Danube area 2 mtm come to Ravenna, Venice or south Italy by ship

42 MAIZE The quality/health aspect has become the key element of our market. EU rules do not satisfy the Italian market since the EU standards have been exceeded by livestock/industrial ones EU regulations: 20ppb aflatoxin max corn standard quality is with 5ppb aflatoxin max and 4000ppb Don max This demand has greatly limited the Italian corn production which reduced investment by 1m/h to 600k/h in favor of other cultures The soils are exhausted and there will not be an investment recovery

43 Spending Power THE SOCIETY IS CHANGED 70s 80s and 90s today Fundamental values in life Houses, cars, family Large middle class Hourglass effect The middle class disappears Increasingly poor Increasingly rich Consumers' Density

44 THE UPPER PART OF THE HOURGLASS The richest 20% of households in Italy receives 61% of total income At world level it shows that 1% of the population has seen its share of wealth grow by 44% in 2009 to 48% in 2014 It will exceed 50% in 2017

45 FOOD SUPPLY The food supply is a key factor to get better and live longer. 63% say they are attentive to food to prevent certain chronic diseases ORGANIC EXPORT ORGANIC INTERNAL MARKET +408 % +94 % OVER 2008 OVER 2008

46 TOTAL SALES 2016 TOTAL SALES: +2,1% Quota Value Trend Value PREMIUM SEGMENT 18,1 +5,1 MAINSTREAM SEGMENT 77,4 +1,6 FIRST PRICE SEGMENT 4,5-2,4

47 GROWTH OF THE ORGANIC MARKET Total Food Organic 16%

48 Mln Euro ORGANIC WEIGHT IMPOSED PRODUCTS 1000 ORGANIC Sell ORGANIC on Total % 4% 4 3, , , ,

49 CONSUMPTION OF PRODUCTS FROM ORGANIC CEREALS VAR. % 14/15 VAR. % JAN-NOV 2016 JAN-NOV 2015 CEREAL DERIVATIVES 18,9 25,9 FRESH VEGETABLES AND TRASFORMED FRESH FRUIT AND TRANSFORMED 14,3 20,0 1,4 14,8 DAIRY 4,1 7,0 EGGS 4,6 5,7

50 PROTEIN-FREE GLUTEN-FREE PRODUCTS Sweets 25,4 % Bread 41,9 % Pasta 19,5 % 6,01 % 2015 quota over category

51 GLUTEN-FREE/ORGANIC IN THE WORLD It is one of the fastest growing global food sectors Gluten-free grows 10% per year and this trend is estimated up to 2020, for a turnover of over $ 7 billion Australia patented the first gluten-free barley (approved by the WHO) and sold it in Germany for gluten-free beer. US Consumption of organic/gluten-free: 27%

52 FINAL CONCLUSIONS

53 MORE MARGINS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS NEW PRODUCTS FINANCIAL MARKETS

54 THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION Sources: Nielsen Sinab Anacer Federbio Assobio Reuters USDA RaboBank IGC Bloomberg Speaker: Andrea Cagnolati General Manager Grain Services S.r.l