An Agricultural Update
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1 An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist
2 Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Food Health Care Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
3
4 Total farm share of 17.2%
5 7th District Agriculture Products (as % of U.S. total, 2017) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Grain Corn Soybeans Hogs Eggs Milk Production Cattle Source: Calculations based on data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
6 Real net farm income edged up in 2017, but is expected to be down in 2018 billion 2018$ gov't payments 2018* *USDA forecast Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
7 Participating Banks Banks in 7th District Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey
8 Annual change in farmland values in 7th Federal Reserve District Percent Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
9 Farmland Value Indexes for 7th District States (1981=100) Wisconsin Indiana Illinois Iowa Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
10 Index of Seventh District farmland values (1981=100) Nominal Inflation Adjusted Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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12 Annual change in real farmland cash rents in 7th Federal Reserve District Percent Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
13 Indexes of 7th District Farmland Values vs. Cash Rents (Inflation Adjusted, 1981=100) Land values Cash rents Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
14 7th District Crop Yield Indexes (1964=100) Corn Soybeans Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
15 Real Cash Crop Prices 40 ($/bushel for Central IL, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2010) Corn Soybeans Sources: The Wall Street Journal and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 Corn production down from record in 2016/ billion bushels /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
17 Growth in industrial demand (especially for ethanol production) surpassed feed demand for corn 8 Food, Seed & Industrial billion bushels Residual & Feed Exports /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board
18 Corn prices expected to be higher in 2018/19 as stocks tighten $9 30% 25% Price per bushel $6 $3 14% 11% 17% 10% 15% 19% 20% 18% 16% 12% 9% 20% 18% 13%14% 13% 12% 9% 8% 7% 9% 13%13% 16% 15% 12% 20% 10% Stocks/use ratio 5% $0 1991/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 0% stks/use ratio price Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board
19 Soybean production expected to be down from records of two previous years billion bushels /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
20 Soybean exports expected to be up, while crushing projections are flat 2.5 Exports billion bushels Crush /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board
21 Soybean prices expected to rise as stocks dip in 2018/19 $16 19% 20% Price per bushel $12 $8 $4 16% 14% 14% 13% 13% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 13% 9% 7% 5% 5% 15% 10% 5% Stocks/use ratio 3% $0 1991/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 stks/use ratio price 0% Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board
22 Real USDA Livestock Prices 250 ($/hundredweight, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2010) Hogs Cattle Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
23 Dairy exports and milk prices $26 8 Price per cwt. $22 $18 $14 $ Exports Price Billion dollars * 2018 USDA forecast Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board
24 IMF real GDP growth forecast for 2018
25 The dollar s exchange value has dipped since the start of 2017, boosting exports 120 (Real Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the US$) {March 1973=100} Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
26 Real U.S. exports rising again, but more slowly than imports 300 (billions of 2015 dollars, SA) Exports Imports Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau
27 Value of agricultural exports rose in 2017, but expected to be about the same in 2018 billion $ Exports Imports Surplus FY * *USDA projection Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
28 High-value agricultural exports outpaced more variable bulk exports, but both slowed billion 2016$ High-value Bulk Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
29 Growth in agricultural exports to NAFTA partners (billion $) Canada Mexico 5 0 CY1990 ' '05 '10 '15
30 But agricultural exports to China caught up (billion $) Canada China Mexico 0 CY1990 ' '05 '10 '15
31 Agricultural exports by regional states (2016 in million $) U.S. Iowa Illinois Indiana Michigan Wisc. Total (rank) 134,242 10,608 (#2) 8,345 (#3) 4,604 (#7) 2,044 (#20) 2,898 (#18) Soybeans 22,819 3,113 (#2) 3,205 (#1) 1,706 (#4) 564 (#13) 532 (#14) Corn 9,890 1,747 (#1) 1,558 (#2) 678 (#5) 229 (#13) 282 (#10) Pork 5,936 1,999 (#1) 382 (#4) 319 (#5) 97 (#12) 31 (#18) Dairy 4, (#12) 43 (#23) 91 (#14) 223 (#7) 683 (#2) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
32 U.S. agricultural trade value forecast to 2027 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
33 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
34 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
35 Real farm sector assets and equity still at levels above prior peak 3,500 billion 2018$ 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Assets Equity 2018* 500 Debt Source: USDA, Economic Research Service *USDA forecast
36 Farm loan volume with major or severe repayment problems in 7th Federal Reserve District (fourth quarter of year) 10 8 percent Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
37 Index of agricultural loan demand for the 7th Federal Reserve District (excluding real estate) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
38 Interest rates charged on new farm loans in the 7th Federal Reserve District 20 percent Farm real estate Farm operating Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
39 percent The Federal Funds Rate is anticipated to be near the neutral rate by the end of 2019 Target Federal Funds Rate FOMC 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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