Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

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1 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

2 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation Board» $1.5 billion company, serves/owned by North America s leading railroads» The Company owns/maintains a national pool of over 230,000 railcars/wells: o Intermodal o Automotive o General Merchandise» Owners enjoy financial/operational benefits matched to business needs: o Operating cost control o Capital outlay elimination o Empty mile reduction o Risk mitigation» Rail customers benefit from a consistent fleet of free-running cars» TTX is not a leasing company TTX is a pooling company 2

3 Index Economic policy uncertainty is creeping higher 250 Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, 12-month Moving Average U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Global Uncertainty Index Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty 3

4 Some proposed policy changes are likely to pose risks to the economy, some opportunities Restrict Immigration Pursue Deregulation Increase Infrastructure Spending Reduce the Effective Corporate Tax Rate Implement a "Border Adjustment" Tax Renegotiate Existing Trade Deals Risk 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Opportunity Source: National Association of Business Economists 4

5 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 A recession in coming months is unlikely 25% Probability of the U.S. Falling into Recession in 6 Months 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Moody s Analytics 5

6 Recent Economic Indicator Trends Strong Consumer & Business Confidence Employment Growth Industrial Production Housing (Starts, Sales and Prices) Inventories Inflation Fuel Prices Personal Income Flat to Weak Retail Sales Vehicle Sales Total Personal Spending Construction Spending Durable Goods Orders 6

7 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Index 1985=100, SA Consumer confidence turned up 2016, but will it translate to a stronger economy? Consumer Confidence Index Source: The Conference Board 7

8 % Unemployed Employment in the U.S. continues to gain strength 18% Baseline and U6 Unemployment Rate 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Baseline "Unemployed and marginally attached for economic reasons" Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 8

9 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Yr/Yr % Change Average Hours Worked Wage growth is finally picking up 4.0% Historical Earnings and Hours Growth % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Average Hourly Earnings ( L ) Average Weekly Hours Worked ( R ) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 9

10 Consumer savings rates are high, while debt obligations are low 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Historical Personal Savings Rate and Debt Service Ratio 13.5% 13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 2% 9.5% Personal Savings ( L ) Debt Service ( R ) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 10

11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 > 50 = Expansionary Manufacturing strengthened at the beginning of ISM Manufacturing Index Total New Orders New Export Orders Source: Institute for Supply Management 11

12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Index: Jan 2013 = 100 A strong U.S. dollar increases the cost of exports, but lowers the cost of imports 1.8 Historical Exchange Rates and Broad Dollar Index Weighted Broad Dollar Index Euro Canadian $ Mexican Peso Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 12

13 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Yr/Yr % Change GDP growth is expected to remain modest in % 3% 2% 1% 0% GDP, Actual GDP, Forecast Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics 13

14 Has GDP growth slowed? % % % % % % % Source: Commerce Department 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 14

15 % of the population in each age bracket More and more Americans will be leaving the labor force for retirement 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody's Analytics 15

16 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 DTD % Change Productivity growth remains stubbornly low 3.0% Average Annual Labor Productivity Growth 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 16

17 Yr/Yr % Change Even if productivity picks up, it is unlikely that it will be able to cancel out weak population growth 7% 6% 5% Contribution to GDP by Employment and Productivity 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Productivity GDP 17

18 Summary of TTX s Plan for leading economic indicators Economic Indicator 2015 Actual 2016 Actual 2017 Plan GDP 1 2.6% 1.6% 1.9% Consumer Spending 1 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% Retail Sales 2.3% 3.2% 3.7% Investment 1 5.0% -0.4% 4.3% Housing Starts US Vehicle Prod. (000) US Vehicle Sales (000) 11,757 12,005 11,809 17,469 17,439 17,247 Industrial Prod % -0.9% 1.1% Mexico GDP 1* 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% Canada GDP 1* 1.1% 1.4% 3.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, Autocast 1: SAAR, real % change 2: Year-over-Year %Change 3: Millions, annualized rate *Actual data through 4Q16 & 1Q17 estimated 18