Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

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1 ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) February 2018

2 Global economy stronger, broadly-based gains 6 World GDP growth % change Forecast Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 2

3 Trade activity strengthened despite more protectionist talk Global Trade Volume % Change Year over Year, SA, 2010= Source: Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 3

4 Labour markets healthier, starting to see upward pressure on wages Unemployment rate: International % U.S. United Kingdom Euro area Canada Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada, Statistical Office of the European Communities, ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 4

5 Stronger growth means less stimulus warranted; end of era of easing Central bank policy rates %, eop Canada U.S. UK Eurozone Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve Board, Bank of England, European Central Bank, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 5

6 U.S. economy to get lift from tax changes; strong labour market 6 U.S. real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change Annual Growth Rates -8 Real GDP f f f Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 6

7 Canada s economy to grow at an above-potential rate again in Canada's real GDP Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate Annual Growth Rates 6 Real GDP 2017f 2.9% 2018f 1.9% 2019f 1.6% 4 2 Canada's potential growth rate 0 Forecast: Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research Forecasts ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 7

8 Consumption to moderate; gov t and business spending stronger Canadian real GDP growth composition forecast 2.5 Percentage points f 2018f Consumer spending Government spending Residential investment Non-res. investment Net trade Inventories Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 8

9 Regulatory changes weighed on home sales activity in Existing home sales in Canada Thousands, SAAR Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 9

10 and home sales will stay on slowing path in 2018 as rates rise 600 Home resales: Canada Thousands of units Forecast: year average Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 10

11 Bank of Canada in no hurry; will gradually unwind stimulus 7 6 Interest rates: Canada % 10 Year bond yield BoC overnight rate 5 Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 11

12 In part due to rise in household balance sheet sensitivity to rate hikes 5.0 Effect of a 1 ppt rate increase on mortgage payments Based on prevailing housing prices in Canada, expressed as a % of household income Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 12

13 and because inflation has yet to move to the 2% target Canada: Headline inflation % change, year-over-year BoC inflation target Forecast Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 13

14 and given the elevated state of policy uncertainty = NAFTA Canada: News-based Policy Uncertainty Index month moving average, Mean=100 prior to Source: PolicyUncertainty.com, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 14

15 C$ rallied on strong data and rate hike; near term uncertainty to weigh Canadian dollar forecast US$/C$ Parity Forecast End of period 0.7 US$/C$ f f Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research Forecasts ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 15

16 Ontario s economy to remain near top of provincial leaderboard 8 Real GDP: Ontario and Canada Annual % change 6 Ontario Canada Forecast Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 16

17 The job market has been on fire 11 Unemployment rate : Ontario % 10 9 Toronto Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 17

18 fueling spending by consumers New motor vehicle sales: Ontario Thousand units Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 18

19 Exporters are gaining ground 60 Ontario exports: All merchandise Billion $, quarterly Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 19

20 In April Ontario housing market lost its edge Existing home sales Thousands, SAAR Ontario Toronto Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 20

21 although we think the market over-corrected 30 Resales per adult-age population - Toronto area SAAR home resales per 1000 population aged Trend Average Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 21

22 The outlook is for a cooling in home resale activity, not a collapse Home resales: Ontario Thousands of units Forecast: Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 22

23 Overstretched affordability in key markets will weigh on demand 100 RBC Housing Affordability Measures - aggregate Ownership costs as % of household income 80 Vancouver 60 Toronto 40 Canada Source: RPS, Royal LePage, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 23

24 ending the run of rapid price appreciation Home prices: Ontario Annual % change Forecast: Source: RPS, Royal LePage, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 24

25 Big ticket items like motor vehicle sales are also expected to gear down 2500 New motor vehicle sales: Canada Thousands of units Forecast: Sources: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 25

26 As higher rates bump up debt service costs 12 Debt service ratio - Canada Debt service payments on mortgage and non-mortgage debt as % of PDI, seasonally adjusted Interest Principal Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 26

27 Fortunately, sustained job creation Labour market: Ontario 8 Year-over-year % change % 10 6 Unemployment rate (RHS) Employment growth Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 27

28 and a pick-up in wages will mitigate impact Ontario wage growth Year-over-year percent change Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 28

29 Ontario still among the faster growing provincial economies in 2018 Provincial real GDP growth forecasts, 2018 annual % change SASK. 2.7% ALTA. B.C. ONT. N.& L. MAN. CANADA QUE. 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% P.E.I 1.5% N.B. N.S. 0.6% 0.7% -1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 29

30 Disclaimer The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Royal Bank of Canada. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 30

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