The U.S. Economic Outlook

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The U.S. Economic Outlook"

Transcription

1 The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc.

2 The U.S. Economy Begins a Mid-Cycle Correction Home-building headed for a hard landing Consumer spending slowed by rising interest rates and a cooling housing market Business investment now leading the expansion Further dollar depreciation will boost exports Core inflation and interest rates topping out Expect below-trend growth through 2007 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2

3 U.S. Economic Growth Has Slowed 8 (Annual percent change, 2000 dollars) (Percent) Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 3

4 Residential Construction Is Turning Down 6.5 (Residential fixed investment, percent of GDP) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 4

5 Housing Affordability Has Deteriorated A higher index means homes are more affordable Affordability Index for Existing Single-Family Homes Source: National Association of Realtors Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 5

6 And Is Becoming a Major Problem in Some Regions A higher index means homes are more affordable West North East South Mid West Source: National Association of Realtors Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 6

7 Single-Family Home Sales Are Plummeting (Millions of units) New Homes Existing Homes Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 7

8 Home Inventory Is Now Rising Sharply Relative to Demand (Months supply at current selling rate, single-family homes) New Homes Existing Homes Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 8

9 Home Builder Confidence Drops to 15-Year Low 80 (Diffusion index; 50 is neutral) (Millions of units) NAHB Housing Market Index (left) Single-Family Housing Starts (right) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 9

10 The Housing Downturn (Million units) (Year/year percent change) Housing Starts (Left scale) Average Existing Single-Family Home Price (Right scale) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 10

11 Metro Areas with 34%+ Housing Overvaluation 34% overvaluation is trigger point for major price correction. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 11

12 U.S. Economic Growth by Sector (Percent change) Real GDP Consumption Residential Investment Bus. Fixed Investment Federal Government State & Local Govt Exports Imports Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 12

13 Other Key U.S. Indicators (Percent change unless noted) Industrial Production Payroll Employment Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) Housing Starts (Millions) Consumer Price Index Core CPI Federal Funds Rate (%) Year Treasury Yield (%) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 13

14 Moderate Growth in Payroll Employment 3 (Percent change, annual rate) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 14

15 A Relatively Slow Expansion in Employment (Percent change from business cycle trough) Months from trough Current Recovery Early 1990s Recovery 6 Previous Recoveries Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 15

16 Manufacturing Production Growth Will Slow 12 (Percent change, annual rate) All Manufacturing Excluding Information Technology Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 16

17 U.S. Industrial Production Growth by Sector (Percent change) All Manufacturing Motor Vehicles & Parts Computers & Electronics Elec. Equip. & Appliances Textiles Apparel Furniture Chemicals Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 17

18 Industrial Production Growth--Chemicals (Percent change) All Chemicals Basic Organic Chemicals Basic Inorganic Chemicals Resins & Synthetic Mat Agricultural Chemicals Pharmaceuticals Paints & Miscellaneous Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 18

19 Will Inflation Threaten the Expansion? Inflationary pressures Above-trend growth in the global economy surge in commodity prices Accelerating labor costs Countervailing restraints Tightening monetary policies Supply responses in commodity markets Global competition Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 19

20 Core CPI Inflation Is Moving Well Above 2% 3.0 (Ex-food and energy: percent change from a year earlier) Core CPI Core Consumption (PCE) Price Index Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 20

21 Homeowners Rent Has Driven Most Of the Pick- Up in Core CPI Inflation 6 (3-month moving average; annualized rate of inflation) Core CPI Owners Equivalent Rent Other Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 21

22 Are Labor Costs Actually Rising Or Not? (Percent change, year-on-year) Official Unit Labor Costs Alternative Using the Employment Cost Index Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 22

23 The Fed May Have A Bit More Work to Do But We Expect It To Cut Rates in (Percent) Federal Funds 10-Year Treasury Yield Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 23

24 Oil Prices Reflect a Tight, Uncertain Market Strong demand growth has driven prices up Periodic supply disruptions, geopolitical risks, and speculation cause price volatility OPEC spare capacity fell to historic lows in 2005 Additions to supply are coming gradually The resource base is not the problem Abundant unconventional energy resources can be developed at competitive costs Conventional oil and gas reserves are holding steady, but they are heavily concentrated in high-risk countries Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 24

25 Oil Prices Are A Wild Card Dollars per barrel, West Texas Intermediate Base High Low Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 25

26 Impact of a $10 Rise in Oil Prices on the U.S. Economy in the Global Insight Model (Percent deviation from baseline) Year One Year Two Year Three Real GDP Real Consumption CPI Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 26

27 After the Bubble: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Market Indexes The S&P 500 s growth was 8.3%; Nasdaq s was 8.6% Nasdaq S&P 500 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 27

28 Expect Smaller Gains in Corporate Profits (Percent change) Profits with IVA & CCA GDP Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 28

29 Consumer Spending Outlook Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 29

30 Cross-Currents Affecting Consumer Finances Positive Forces Steady Job Growth Accelerating Wages Real Income Growth Rising Net Worth Negative Forces Rising Interest Rates Mounting Debt Burdens Cooling Housing Market Negative Saving Rate High Energy Costs Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 30

31 Consumer Spending Is Decelerating and Will No Longer Outpace Income Growth 5 (Percent change) Real Consumer Spending Real Disposable Income Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 31

32 The Slowdown in Real Consumer Spending Is Concentrated in Goods 8 (Percent change, chained 2000 dollars) Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 32

33 The Personal Saving Rate Has Fallen During Periods of Rising Household Net Worth 12 (Percent of disposable income) (Ratio to disposable income) Saving Rate Household Net Worth/Disposable Income Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 33

34 Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Has Fueled Consumer Spending in Recent Years 8 (Percent of disposable income) Net Home Equity Extraction Sources: Federal Reserve Board, 2005 estimate by Global Insight Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 34

35 Consumer Spending Growth Will Slow Real consumer spending growth has slowed in response to rising interest rates and a cooling housing market. In a saturated market, light vehicle sales will recover only gradually from their post-hurricane setback. Home furnishings spending will decline in response to falling home sales and construction. An aging population will bring increases in spending on health care, drugs, travel, recreation, and other services. Declining prices will encourage growth in real spending on computers, software, home electronics, and apparel. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 35

36 Light Vehicle Sales Hit a Plateau 20 (Millions of units) Cars Light Trucks Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 36

37 Business Investment Will Help Drive the Expansion Forward Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 37

38 Unfilled Orders for Capital Goods Are Still Rising 170 (Billions of dollars) Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 38

39 U.S. Construction Growth Shifts from Housing to Nonresidential Structures (Year-over-year percent change, 2000 dollars) Residential Structures Nonresidential Structures Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 39

40 Growth in Business Equipment Investment 15 (Percent change, 2000 dollars) Total Information Technology Industrial Equipment Transport Equipment Other Equipment Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 40

41 Fiscal Policy Outlook Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 41

42 The Federal Spending Spree Is Over: Growth in Government Purchases of Goods & Services 9 (Year-over-year percent change) Federal State & Local Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 42

43 The Federal Budget Deficit: No Easy Fix 300 (Billions of dollars, fiscal years) (Percent of GDP) Unified Budget Deficit Deficit as % of GDP Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 43

44 Foreign Trade on an Unsustainable Path Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 44

45 Exports and Imports as a Percent of GDP 18 (Percent of GDP) Exports Imports Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 45

46 Trade Imbalances and Global Interdependency The U.S. depends on lending from foreign central banks to finance its trade deficit. Trading partners depend on U.S. consumers for export-led growth. Global imbalances require global solutions: Higher U.S. savings Faster domestic growth in Europe and Asia Dollar depreciation Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 46

47 The United States Runs Merchandise Trade Deficits with All Major Trading Partners 50 (Merchandise trade balance, billions of dollars) China Japan European Union Canada Mexico Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 47

48 A Record U.S. Current Account Deficit 200 (Billions of dollars) (Percent of GDP) Current Account Deficit Deficit as % of GDP Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 48

49 The U.S. Dollar Will Depreciate Further 1.3 (Real Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, 2000=1.0) Industrial Countries Developing Countries Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 49

50 Conclusion: Slower Growth Ahead The housing market is headed for a hard landing Consumer spending momentum will weaken Business investment will show solid growth The U.S. dollar will depreciate, boosting exports Inflation will subside in 2007, allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates The probability of a recession in 2007 is about 25%. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 50

51 Thank You! Visit our Web site at Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 51

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

The US Economic Outlook

The US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth

More information

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies

More information

Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits

Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant

More information

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade

More information

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013)

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) North American Forging Shipment Forecast 2014-2018 (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) Percent Change Year Ago Best leading indicator combination for impression die bookings used to

More information

Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers

Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: 2018 National Economic Update September 12, 2018 noun mo men tum \ mō-ˈmen-təm, mə- \ 1 b : the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as

More information

Trade and Economic Trends

Trade and Economic Trends Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

RISI Housing Report An Update on the Housing Market

RISI Housing Report An Update on the Housing Market RISI Housing Report An Update on the Housing Market North American Conference October 2018 Jennifer Coskren Senior Economist Agenda Current housing demand and demographic conditions Supply and impediments

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

The U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon

The U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

Economic & Financial Market Outlook

Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919

More information

Economy On The Rebound

Economy On The Rebound Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive

More information

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate

More information

US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS. Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, ,

US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS. Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, , IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? September 2014 ihs.com Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, +1 781 301 9014, paul.edelstein@ihs.com The US economy

More information

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder U.S. Economic

More information

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business 10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier

More information

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference

More information

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1 WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming

More information

Mexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014

Mexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Mexico Stands to Benefit From With Relative Ease Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Outline 2013 worst than expected Economy back on growth track in 2014 Why we care about

More information

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update. Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values

A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant

More information

The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources

The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible

More information

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.

More information

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

More information

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,

More information

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government

More information

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014 Economic Update economic

More information

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully

More information

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot U.S. Economy in a Snapshot Economic Press Briefing: May 19, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or

More information

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Your Texas Economy Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Overview of Texas Economy The Texas economy is growing robustly in 2018 2018 job growth through October is 2.9 percent annualized compared to 2.1

More information

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0

More information

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard

More information

www.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative

More information

2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK How Much Longer Can the Second Longest Economic Expansion on Record Last? Craig Dismuke Chief Economist cdismuke@viningsparks.com Dudley Carter Economist dcarter@viningsparks.com

More information

The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008

The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008 The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008 No Debate About Recession (1) So Why Hasn t the Recession been Officially Declared?

More information

US Light Vehicle Outlook. George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012

US Light Vehicle Outlook. George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012 US Light Vehicle Outlook George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012 External Shocks to The Global Auto Industry - A Critical Timeline Sub-Prime Crisis Bear Sterns Oil Hits

More information

Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin

Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin POWERPOINT PARTNER The US Economy today, with a close look at jobs

More information

Real gross domestic growth

Real gross domestic growth Real gross domestic growth United States, 2000 prices Compound annual growth rate 10 5 0-5 -10 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Sources: BEA, Global Insight. Consumer sentiment University of Michigan,

More information

Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011

Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011 Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook February 1, 2011 Today s Objectives Endeavor to provide a broad context for today s program by briefly touching on: Some good news Some not

More information

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy

More information

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018 Your Texas Economy Last updated: January 30, 2018 Texas economy strong in 2017 2017 job growth was 2.4% Overview 2015/2016 job growth was much weaker due to the oil bust (1.3% and 1.2%, respectively) 2014

More information

A comment on recent events, and...

A comment on recent events, and... A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,

More information

The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update

The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Download slides here at www.mdm.com/slides or email info@mdm.com The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Brian Lewandowski and Thomas P. Gale June 18, 2015 Produced by: Sponsored by: Download slides here at

More information

An Agricultural Update

An Agricultural Update An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980

More information

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

Market Insights. March 29, 2019

Market Insights. March 29, 2019 March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%

More information

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

Global growth prospects

Global growth prospects Global growth prospects Percent 6 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

More information

2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU)

2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) 2017 PNG Economic Survey Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) Introduction New government, new plan Short-term challenges: recession, falling government

More information

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and

More information

It Was Never Going To Be Easy

It Was Never Going To Be Easy It Was Never Going To Be Easy Stephen Toplis, Head of Research July 2010 Introduction Global power shift sustained Average outlook on the improve Fiscal constraints binding Domestic rebalance under way

More information

World Trade Services Outlook

World Trade Services Outlook World Trade Services Outlook Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. October 26, 2006 Macro View of Trade Confirms Globalization s Long-term Impact on the U.S. Economy 18

More information

Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast

Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Mira Farka Adrian Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland Empire Regional SBDC Network California State University,

More information

The Great Economic Reset

The Great Economic Reset The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory

More information

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018 Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

More information

By making use of SAFRIM (South African Inter-Industry Macro-Economic Model) By Jeaunes Viljoen, Conningarth Economists, 1

By making use of SAFRIM (South African Inter-Industry Macro-Economic Model) By Jeaunes Viljoen, Conningarth Economists, 1 By making use of SAFRIM (South African Inter-Industry Macro-Economic Model) By Jeaunes Viljoen, Conningarth Economists, South Africa 10/13/2011 1 1960: The economy experienced high growth rates mining

More information

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911

More information

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011 Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005

More information

economic and financial outlook

economic and financial outlook Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in

More information

MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016

MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016 MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE Matthew Marsh September 2016 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

Texas Housing Markets: Metropolitan vs. Border Communities. September 22, 2014

Texas Housing Markets: Metropolitan vs. Border Communities. September 22, 2014 Texas Housing Markets: Metropolitan vs. Border Communities Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. Research Economist El Paso Branch Dallas Federal Rio Grande Economic Association September 22, 2014 Contents

More information

Percent

Percent Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015

More information

De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means?

De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? Presentation to 35 Annual Monetary & Trade Conference Mykyta Vesselovsky, Ph.D. Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada April

More information

Friday, May 22, NAR Convention

Friday, May 22, NAR Convention NAR Convention 5-14-09 NAR Convention 5-14-09 Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist NAR Marketing Tips!Provide Market Data to buyers!forbes Buyer Survey: Now good time to buy home!best Banner Ads: 1. Has Market

More information