The U.S. Economic Outlook

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The U.S. Economic Outlook"

Transcription

1 The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc.

2 The U.S. Economy Begins a Mid-Cycle Correction Home-building headed for a hard landing Consumer spending slowed by rising interest rates and a cooling housing market Business investment now leading the expansion Further dollar depreciation will boost exports Core inflation and interest rates topping out Expect below-trend growth through 2007 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2

3 U.S. Economic Growth Has Slowed 8 (Annual percent change, 2000 dollars) (Percent) Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 3

4 Residential Construction Is Turning Down 6.5 (Residential fixed investment, percent of GDP) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 4

5 Housing Affordability Has Deteriorated A higher index means homes are more affordable Affordability Index for Existing Single-Family Homes Source: National Association of Realtors Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 5

6 And Is Becoming a Major Problem in Some Regions A higher index means homes are more affordable West North East South Mid West Source: National Association of Realtors Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 6

7 Single-Family Home Sales Are Plummeting (Millions of units) New Homes Existing Homes Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 7

8 Home Inventory Is Now Rising Sharply Relative to Demand (Months supply at current selling rate, single-family homes) New Homes Existing Homes Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 8

9 Home Builder Confidence Drops to 15-Year Low 80 (Diffusion index; 50 is neutral) (Millions of units) NAHB Housing Market Index (left) Single-Family Housing Starts (right) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 9

10 The Housing Downturn (Million units) (Year/year percent change) Housing Starts (Left scale) Average Existing Single-Family Home Price (Right scale) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 10

11 Metro Areas with 34%+ Housing Overvaluation 34% overvaluation is trigger point for major price correction. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 11

12 U.S. Economic Growth by Sector (Percent change) Real GDP Consumption Residential Investment Bus. Fixed Investment Federal Government State & Local Govt Exports Imports Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 12

13 Other Key U.S. Indicators (Percent change unless noted) Industrial Production Payroll Employment Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) Housing Starts (Millions) Consumer Price Index Core CPI Federal Funds Rate (%) Year Treasury Yield (%) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 13

14 Moderate Growth in Payroll Employment 3 (Percent change, annual rate) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 14

15 A Relatively Slow Expansion in Employment (Percent change from business cycle trough) Months from trough Current Recovery Early 1990s Recovery 6 Previous Recoveries Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 15

16 Manufacturing Production Growth Will Slow 12 (Percent change, annual rate) All Manufacturing Excluding Information Technology Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 16

17 U.S. Industrial Production Growth by Sector (Percent change) All Manufacturing Motor Vehicles & Parts Computers & Electronics Elec. Equip. & Appliances Textiles Apparel Furniture Chemicals Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 17

18 Industrial Production Growth--Chemicals (Percent change) All Chemicals Basic Organic Chemicals Basic Inorganic Chemicals Resins & Synthetic Mat Agricultural Chemicals Pharmaceuticals Paints & Miscellaneous Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 18

19 Will Inflation Threaten the Expansion? Inflationary pressures Above-trend growth in the global economy surge in commodity prices Accelerating labor costs Countervailing restraints Tightening monetary policies Supply responses in commodity markets Global competition Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 19

20 Core CPI Inflation Is Moving Well Above 2% 3.0 (Ex-food and energy: percent change from a year earlier) Core CPI Core Consumption (PCE) Price Index Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 20

21 Homeowners Rent Has Driven Most Of the Pick- Up in Core CPI Inflation 6 (3-month moving average; annualized rate of inflation) Core CPI Owners Equivalent Rent Other Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 21

22 Are Labor Costs Actually Rising Or Not? (Percent change, year-on-year) Official Unit Labor Costs Alternative Using the Employment Cost Index Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 22

23 The Fed May Have A Bit More Work to Do But We Expect It To Cut Rates in (Percent) Federal Funds 10-Year Treasury Yield Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 23

24 Oil Prices Reflect a Tight, Uncertain Market Strong demand growth has driven prices up Periodic supply disruptions, geopolitical risks, and speculation cause price volatility OPEC spare capacity fell to historic lows in 2005 Additions to supply are coming gradually The resource base is not the problem Abundant unconventional energy resources can be developed at competitive costs Conventional oil and gas reserves are holding steady, but they are heavily concentrated in high-risk countries Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 24

25 Oil Prices Are A Wild Card Dollars per barrel, West Texas Intermediate Base High Low Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 25

26 Impact of a $10 Rise in Oil Prices on the U.S. Economy in the Global Insight Model (Percent deviation from baseline) Year One Year Two Year Three Real GDP Real Consumption CPI Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 26

27 After the Bubble: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Market Indexes The S&P 500 s growth was 8.3%; Nasdaq s was 8.6% Nasdaq S&P 500 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 27

28 Expect Smaller Gains in Corporate Profits (Percent change) Profits with IVA & CCA GDP Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 28

29 Consumer Spending Outlook Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 29

30 Cross-Currents Affecting Consumer Finances Positive Forces Steady Job Growth Accelerating Wages Real Income Growth Rising Net Worth Negative Forces Rising Interest Rates Mounting Debt Burdens Cooling Housing Market Negative Saving Rate High Energy Costs Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 30

31 Consumer Spending Is Decelerating and Will No Longer Outpace Income Growth 5 (Percent change) Real Consumer Spending Real Disposable Income Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 31

32 The Slowdown in Real Consumer Spending Is Concentrated in Goods 8 (Percent change, chained 2000 dollars) Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 32

33 The Personal Saving Rate Has Fallen During Periods of Rising Household Net Worth 12 (Percent of disposable income) (Ratio to disposable income) Saving Rate Household Net Worth/Disposable Income Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 33

34 Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Has Fueled Consumer Spending in Recent Years 8 (Percent of disposable income) Net Home Equity Extraction Sources: Federal Reserve Board, 2005 estimate by Global Insight Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 34

35 Consumer Spending Growth Will Slow Real consumer spending growth has slowed in response to rising interest rates and a cooling housing market. In a saturated market, light vehicle sales will recover only gradually from their post-hurricane setback. Home furnishings spending will decline in response to falling home sales and construction. An aging population will bring increases in spending on health care, drugs, travel, recreation, and other services. Declining prices will encourage growth in real spending on computers, software, home electronics, and apparel. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 35

36 Light Vehicle Sales Hit a Plateau 20 (Millions of units) Cars Light Trucks Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 36

37 Business Investment Will Help Drive the Expansion Forward Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 37

38 Unfilled Orders for Capital Goods Are Still Rising 170 (Billions of dollars) Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 38

39 U.S. Construction Growth Shifts from Housing to Nonresidential Structures (Year-over-year percent change, 2000 dollars) Residential Structures Nonresidential Structures Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 39

40 Growth in Business Equipment Investment 15 (Percent change, 2000 dollars) Total Information Technology Industrial Equipment Transport Equipment Other Equipment Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 40

41 Fiscal Policy Outlook Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 41

42 The Federal Spending Spree Is Over: Growth in Government Purchases of Goods & Services 9 (Year-over-year percent change) Federal State & Local Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 42

43 The Federal Budget Deficit: No Easy Fix 300 (Billions of dollars, fiscal years) (Percent of GDP) Unified Budget Deficit Deficit as % of GDP Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 43

44 Foreign Trade on an Unsustainable Path Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 44

45 Exports and Imports as a Percent of GDP 18 (Percent of GDP) Exports Imports Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 45

46 Trade Imbalances and Global Interdependency The U.S. depends on lending from foreign central banks to finance its trade deficit. Trading partners depend on U.S. consumers for export-led growth. Global imbalances require global solutions: Higher U.S. savings Faster domestic growth in Europe and Asia Dollar depreciation Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 46

47 The United States Runs Merchandise Trade Deficits with All Major Trading Partners 50 (Merchandise trade balance, billions of dollars) China Japan European Union Canada Mexico Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 47

48 A Record U.S. Current Account Deficit 200 (Billions of dollars) (Percent of GDP) Current Account Deficit Deficit as % of GDP Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 48

49 The U.S. Dollar Will Depreciate Further 1.3 (Real Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, 2000=1.0) Industrial Countries Developing Countries Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 49

50 Conclusion: Slower Growth Ahead The housing market is headed for a hard landing Consumer spending momentum will weaken Business investment will show solid growth The U.S. dollar will depreciate, boosting exports Inflation will subside in 2007, allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates The probability of a recession in 2007 is about 25%. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 50

51 Thank You! Visit our Web site at Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 51

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate

More information

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018 Your Texas Economy Last updated: January 30, 2018 Texas economy strong in 2017 2017 job growth was 2.4% Overview 2015/2016 job growth was much weaker due to the oil bust (1.3% and 1.2%, respectively) 2014

More information

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014 Economic Update economic

More information

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and

More information

The Great Economic Reset

The Great Economic Reset The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory

More information

2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU)

2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) 2017 PNG Economic Survey Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) Introduction New government, new plan Short-term challenges: recession, falling government

More information

economic and financial outlook

economic and financial outlook Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

U.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist

U.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist U.S Cement Outlook IEEE Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist 1 Construction Activity Billion Real $ 1,400 1,200 1,000 2014 = 2.5% 2015 = 5.6% 800 600 400 200 0 12 Year Peak-to- Peak Recovery 1998 2000

More information

World Trade Services Outlook

World Trade Services Outlook World Trade Services Outlook Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. October 26, 2006 Macro View of Trade Confirms Globalization s Long-term Impact on the U.S. Economy 18

More information

The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update

The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Download slides here at www.mdm.com/slides or email info@mdm.com The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Brian Lewandowski and Thomas P. Gale June 18, 2015 Produced by: Sponsored by: Download slides here at

More information

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum!

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! 11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! (almost) Beyond! Macroeconomics Portland, OR! October 16, 2014! Expansion Continues! Five Years and More!! Recession Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls Real Personal Income

More information

Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting. Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division

Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting. Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division Today s presentation Macro Economy Agricultural Economy 2 The Market Cycle (we ve been

More information

2016 Mid-Year Economic Update

2016 Mid-Year Economic Update 2016 Mid-Year Economic Update Featuring: Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado Boulder Jenel Stelton-Holtmeier, Modern Distribution Management Sponsored by: June 14, 2016 Introduction Macroeconomic

More information

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014 2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada

Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September

More information

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Peterson Institute for International Economics 9 th October 2014 Washington DC The Shifts and the

More information

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry REGIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry Kevin L. Kliesen Business Economist and Research Officer September 7, 2017 1 Disclaimer The views we will express today

More information

The World Picture A View for Sea Trade

The World Picture A View for Sea Trade The World Picture A View for Sea Trade Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management October 20, 2008 Baltimore, MD Presented by: Scott Sigman Principal, Global Trade & Transportation IHS Global Insight

More information

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin

More information

Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013

Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Slide 1. The Conventional Wisdom. Japan has suffered from two lost

More information

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Golf Industry Performance Worldwide 1.1. Overview 1.2. Global Golf Equipment Demand and Economy 2. The US Golf Industry Overview 2.1. Industry Segmentation 3. Industry Performance

More information

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth

More information

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade Loren Brandt Thomas Rawski June 16, 2005 Key Facts: China, 2003 Population: 1.3 billion (1 st ) GNP: $US 1.4 trillion (3 rd ) Foreign Trade: $US 850.1 (3rd) GNP

More information

The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks

The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks Yen Chen Senior Research Economist Center for Automotive Research Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook Symposium December 1, 2017 U.S. Light Vehicle

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services

Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Financial Overview December 6, 2017 1 Discussion Overview Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing

More information

URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

URBAN LAND INSTITUTE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE 2012 ULI FALL MEETING (Denver, 18 October 2012) The Global Economic Outlook Dark clouds on the horizon Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford Oxford Economics and REAG

More information

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking

More information

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.

More information

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott www.greatdepressionsbook.com Cole and Ohanian, The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective,

More information

Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken?

Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken? Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken? Kansas Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers Salina, KS February 23 rd, 2012 Brian C. Briggeman Associate Professor and Director of the Arthur

More information

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after

More information

Market Report Series Oil 2017

Market Report Series Oil 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower

More information

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Gulf Research Center November 23, 2005 A. F. Alhajji*, PhD Gulf Energy Program - Moderator Gulf Research Center Dubai, UAE *A. F. Alhajji, PhD is also George Patten

More information

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%

More information

Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle

Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu

More information

Government finances A long term assessment. Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira

Government finances A long term assessment. Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira Government finances A long term assessment Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira Walter Mosher June 22, 2010 Structure 1. Aruba s current fiscal landscape 2. Long term outlook & scenarios 3. Aruba s GDP volatility

More information

Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences

Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences International Conference on Capital Flows and Safe Assets John Rogers Senior Adviser Federal Reserve Board May 27, 2013 The

More information

Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority

Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC 2015 Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Marriot Hotel, Newport City 8 October 2014 Outline AEC 2015

More information

Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes

Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes 2015 Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes 3 1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak

More information

Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets

Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Latin American Conference August 2016 Kurt Schaefer VP, Fiber Hannah Zhao Senior Economist, Recovered Paper Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

U.S. REITs have rebounded strongly Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index

U.S. REITs have rebounded strongly Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index U.S. REITs have rebounded strongly Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index Index, 2005 = 100 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones. Affordability

More information

Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century

Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Gas Well Deliquification Workshop Denver, Colorado February, 2009 Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The

More information

Demographics, Debt, Dollar and Deflation Is the next Great Reset coming?

Demographics, Debt, Dollar and Deflation Is the next Great Reset coming? Demographics, Debt, Dollar and Deflation Is the next Great Reset coming? CMTA Advanced Investment Workshop January 28, 20145 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered

More information

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF

More information

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;

More information

The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd

The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd 1 WHY ECONOMICS? THE REASON FOR STUDYING ECONOMICS IS TO AVOID BEING DECEIVED BY ECONOMISTS Joan Robinson,

More information

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX September 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and

More information

How Capitalism Was Built

How Capitalism Was Built How Capitalism Was Built The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia Anders Åslund Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, DC, September

More information

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook. Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook. Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016 THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016 Favorable Macroeconomic Trends The Philippines has been on a higher growth trajectory

More information

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward

More information

The Global Recession: How Bad, How Long? The Global Recovery: How Robust, How Widespread?

The Global Recession: How Bad, How Long? The Global Recovery: How Robust, How Widespread? ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 18 JUNE 2009 HILTON SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG The Global Recession: How Bad, How Long? The Global Recovery: How Robust, How Widespread? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist June 18,

More information

Are Internet Stocks Over- Valued?

Are Internet Stocks Over- Valued? Are Internet Stocks Over- Valued? Paul A. Gompers Harvard Business School pgompers@hbs.edu THURSDAY, JUNE 3, 1999 Internet Stock Index S&P 500 INTERNET STOCKS: WHAT A RIDE IT HAS BEEN! Amazon.com: Can

More information

Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa It is widely known the success of Asian Tigers But is less known that Portugal was one of the few countries, similar to the Asian Tigers, that changed from a

More information

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy David Turner, OECD UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, LINK Project October

More information

U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014

U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014 2014 U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook July 15, 2014 U.S. Economic Overview U.S. GDP Growth Persistent Despite 1Q Polar Vortex Annualized Quarterly Percent Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

More information

32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference

32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference 32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference Economic Intelligence September 21 st, 2017 Toronto Peter Norman, VP & Chief Economist, Economic Consulting Our Company Structure at a Glance ARGUS

More information

The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Michael Strauss Chief Economist and Chief Investment Strategist Commonfund October 16, 2012 The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the

More information

First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History

First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History Nitzan / 3270 GPE I I. Capitalism: A Brief History / 1 First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History Definition Economic system? Private ownership / profit motive / wage labour Beginnings 16 th century: Feudal

More information

Effects of Common Economic Space Creation

Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Институт Institute of народнохозяйственного Economic Forecasting прогнозирования Florence September, 2012 20 years of independent economic development 1990 1991

More information

U.S. Infrastructure Market: Will It Jump-Start the Economy? Scott Hazelton Director, Construction Advisory Services May 21, 2009

U.S. Infrastructure Market: Will It Jump-Start the Economy? Scott Hazelton Director, Construction Advisory Services May 21, 2009 U.S. Infrastructure Market: Will It Jump-Start the Economy? Scott Hazelton Director, Construction Advisory Services May 21, 2009 Infrastructure Spending: Where Does it Go? Other Power, 6.9% 2008 Shares

More information

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:

More information

Understanding the. Dr. Christopher Waller. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Understanding the. Dr. Christopher Waller. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Understanding the Unemployment Picture Dr. Christopher Waller Senior Vice President and Director of fresearch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis By David Andolfatto and Marcela Williams A Look at Unemployment

More information

Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead?

Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead? Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead? Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist wdzhang@iastate.edu 515-294-2536 Ag Credit School, June 14 th, 2017 The new Mike Duffy

More information

Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of

Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of Inclusive Growth? Robert Z Lawrence Albert L Williams Professor of Trade and Investment Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, MasterCard Center for Inclusive Growth

More information

State of the Philadelphia Housing Market

State of the Philadelphia Housing Market State of the Philadelphia Housing Market September 17, 2014 KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D. gillenk@upenn.edu Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Fels Institute of Government at the University of Pennsylvania

More information

Oil Crises and Climate Challenges 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries

Oil Crises and Climate Challenges 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries Crises and 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries Fridtjof Unander, International Energy Agency ISED Meeting, UN, 13 September 2004 Aim of the Study Review of trends in energy use and CO 2 emissions since

More information

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook With a focus on the Asian market RISI Asian Conference May 2017 Ken Waghorne VP, Global Packaging Ken Waghorne VP Global Packaging kwaghorne@risi.com One of the original Resource

More information

colorado.edu/business/brd

colorado.edu/business/brd colorado.edu/business/brd Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Southwest Business Forum Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January

More information

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 India Two views of the largest economies in 2005 Top 12 economies by GDP,

More information

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland

More information

Legislative Economic Briefing

Legislative Economic Briefing Legislative Economic Briefing February 16, 2017 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist dwebb@mississippi.edu (601)432-6556 To subscribe

More information

US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK. Global Economics & Country Risk Conference

US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK. Global Economics & Country Risk Conference IHS ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK Global Economics & Country Risk Conference US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? November 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283,

More information

British Columbia's Fisheries & Aquaculture Sector May 2001

British Columbia's Fisheries & Aquaculture Sector May 2001 British Columbia's Fisheries & Aquaculture Sector May 2001 Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations Table of Contents Introduction... 1 What s new in this report?... 1 Highlights... 3 1. Defining the

More information

Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States

Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States Thomas Piketty (PSE) Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley) November 2016 There is a large disconnect today

More information

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy?

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? Colorado Counties Inc. Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 28, 2017 Real GDP

More information

Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry

Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry North American Conference October 2017 David Fortin Director, Wood Products Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Quick Bio Master s

More information

+44 (0) FOOTFALL: GLOBAL SHOPPER TRENDS REPORT Bringing you the latest consumer behaviour trends throughout the globe

+44 (0) FOOTFALL: GLOBAL SHOPPER TRENDS REPORT Bringing you the latest consumer behaviour trends throughout the globe www.footfall.com +44 (0) 121 711 4652 FOOTFALL: GLOBAL SHOPPER TRENDS REPORT Bringing you the latest consumer behaviour trends throughout the globe Q1 2015 intro Welcome to FootFall s brand new Global

More information