Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018

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1 Your Texas Economy Last updated: January 30, 2018

2 Texas economy strong in job growth was 2.4% Overview 2015/2016 job growth was much weaker due to the oil bust (1.3% and 1.2%, respectively) 2014 job growth was 3.7%, strong due to the oil boom average job growth was 2.0% Texas expected to grow faster in 2018 Job growth forecast at 2.8% (Dec./Dec.) 2

3 Job growth (percent), Dec./Dec.* Texas Job Growth Robust in *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. DATA: TX 2.4 U.S

4 Texas Job Growth Rebounds in Q4, after Hurricane Harvey Job growth (percent), quarter/quarter* *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. DATA: 4

5 Energy Sector Job Growth Rebounds in 2017 Job growth (percent), Dec./Dec.* Trade, Transp. & Util. (19.9%) Prof. & Bus. Serv. (13.7%) Educ. & Health Serv. (13.6%) Leisure & Manufacturing Hosp. (10.8%) (7.0%) Fin. Act. (6.2%) Constr. (5.9%) Oil & Gas Extract., Mining Sup. (1.8%) *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. NOTE: Numbers in parentheses are share of state employment accounted for by each sector. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. DATA: 5

6 Job growth (percent), Dec./Dec.* 5 Job Growth Uneven Across Metros Austin Dallas Fort Worth Houston San Antonio *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. DATA: 6

7 Texas Unemployment Rate Below U.S. Level Unemployment rate (percent)* U.S Texas NOTE: Data through Dec SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; FRB Dallas. DATA: 7

8 Jobs (millions)* 13 Job Outlook: Solid Growth Dallas Fed Employment Forecast Texas job growth expected to be about 2.8% in *Seasonally adjusted. NOTES: Observed employment data through Dec Upper and lower dashed lines represent the 80 percent confidence bands around the forecast. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; FRB Dallas. DATA: 8

9 ENERGY Texas is #1 producer of oil and natural gas in nation 25% of U.S. refinery capacity and 60% of U.S. petrochemical production is in Texas Low energy prices hurt Texas economy on net

10 Dollars Energy Activity Strengthened in 2017 Natural Gas Price Oil Price NOTES: Oil price is dollars per barrel. Natural gas price is dollars per million Btu, multiplied by 10. Data through Jan SOURCES: Wall Street Journal; Baker Hughes; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Haver Analytics. Texas Rig Count Rig Count

11 MANUFACTURING Texas produces 10% of U.S. manufactured goods Manufacturing sector highly correlated with economic growth Dallas Fed s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey offers early look at turning points and insight on trends

12 Index, 3-month moving average* Expansion Contraction Manufacturing Sector Expansion Continues Texas Recession Production Oil Bust *Seasonally adjusted. NOTE: Data through Jan SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS). DATA: 12

13 EXPORTS Texas is the top exporting state and accounts for 17% of U.S. exports Gulf coast ports are major exporters of oil products and petrochemicals Texas-Mexico border ports also process over half of state exports

14 Index, Jan. 2007=100* Texas Exports Recover after Energy Bust Mexico is Texas top trading partner, receiving almost 40% of state exports Texas U.S. minus Texas *Seasonally adjusted. NOTES: Underlying data in 2016 dollars; data through Nov SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau; Wisertrade; Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. 14

15 Petroleum Product Exports Still Strong Index, Q1:2007=100* 500 Petroleum and Coal Products 450 Computers and Electronics 400 Transportation Equipment Chemicals 350 Machinery *Seasonally adjusted. NOTES: Underlying data in 2016 dollars; data through Q SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau; Wisertrade; Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. Petroleum & coal products and computer & electronics export categories each account for 16% of Texas exports 15

16 SERVICES Service industry makes up the bulk of the Texas economy Accounts for over 60% of private-sector activity in Texas Dallas Fed s Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey provides timely insight into this key sector

17 Index, 3-month moving average* Service Sector Continues its Steady Expansion Expansion Contraction Texas Recession Services Revenue Oil Bust *Seasonally adjusted. NOTE: Data through Jan SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS). DATA: 17

18 Index, 3-month moving average* Expansion Contraction Texas Recession Retail Sales Growth Abates Retail Sales Services Revenue Oil Bust *Seasonally adjusted. NOTES: Data through Jan. 2018; the TROS is a component of TSSOS using information only from retail and wholesale sectors. SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS). DATA: 18

19 HOUSING Texas avoided the house price bubble Housing sector was slow to recover Housing markets currently tight in most of the state

20 Home Sales Bounce Back, Inventories Remain Low Total existing home sales* Months in inventory* 35,000 9 Home sales 8 30, ,000 20,000 15,000 Inventory , *Seasonally adjusted. NOTE: Data through Nov SOURCES: Multiple Listing Service; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. 0 20

21 Texas Median Home Price at Record High Dollars (thousands), four-month moving average* *Seasonally adjusted. NOTES: Data in real dollars; data through Nov SOURCES: Multiple Listing Service; seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas. Metro Area Nov. Price Y/Y % Change Austin $296, % Dallas $285, % Ft.Worth $225, % Houston $231, % San Antonio $218, % U.S. Texas 21

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