Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2

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University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Economics and Finance Department 2-2019 Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Economics and Finance Department Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Aaron Nazarian University of Texas at El Paso, adnazarian@miners.utep.edu Steven L. Fullerton University of Texas at El Paso, slfullerton@miners.utep.edu Sergio Olivas University of Texas at El Paso, solivas11@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Nazarian, Aaron; Fullerton, Steven L.; and Olivas, Sergio, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2" (2019). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Economics and Finance Department at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.

2 February 2019 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Aaron Nazarian Steven L. Fullerton Sergio Olivas Jr. Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso, TX Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso tomf@utep.edu adnazarian@miners.utep.edu slfullerton@miners.utep.edu solivas11@miners.utep.edu Telephone Fax Website Border Commerce & Economics Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2 Minor Data Mysteries Although regional economic conditions remain fairly good, statistical uncertainty is in the air due to data delays resulting from the recent federal government shutdown. The data mystery is less concerning for the El Paso metropolitan economy because the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas business cycle index rose, again, in December. In fact, all of the 2018 BCI monthly values exceeded the corresponding values from El Paso County enrollments in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are not updated this month due to data interruptions associated with the shutdown. Once updated enrollment estimates become available, additional downward movement is likely as a consequence of ongoing steady economic growth in the local economy. The El Paso housing market opened 2019 in good shape. The January median price of $149,950 was approximately 2.4 percent higher than the corresponding figure for January At 3.9, the months of housing inventory for El Paso remained below 4.0 for a third consecutive month. Housing inventory has tightened to a range not observed since Regular gasoline prices fell by 20 cents to $1.89 per gallon in January 2019, partly due to oil price weakness during the government closure. Prices have rebounded somewhat in recent weeks, but consumers enjoyed the respite while it lasted. In Doña Ana County, unemployment remained below year ago levels for the entirety of Better labor market conditions helped the number of Las Cruces area SNAP cases to remain below 27,500 throughout UTEP Border Region Modeling Project econometric forecast analysis indicates that additional labor market strengthening is likely in 2019, boding well for income performance and helping further ease the demand for social safety net services in the Mesilla Valley. The peso per dollar nominal exchange continued to fluctuate minimally around in the last quarter of Barring any USMCA policy disasters, the exchange rate may continue trade near current levels in In real terms, the peso remains at least somewhat undervalued against the dollar. The latter point is underscored regionally by a persistent 40 percent gap between the exchange rate and the Borderplex restaurant price ratio. Northbound international bridge personal vehicle flows fell below 1.0 million during both of the last two months in The decline began in August, probably in reaction to increased homicides and violence related to illegal narcotics smuggling activities. In spite of the latter, northbound pedestrian traffic volumes rose above year ago levels for nearly every month of Cross border cargo truck traffic grew by 4.1 percent in That development was driven by increased merchandise trade. During the first 11 months of 2018, total trade through the El Paso Customs District expanded to more than $103 million. After adjusting for inflation, real trade increased by 5.7 percent during that period in this district. Export oriented manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juárez stood at 277,247 in November 2018, a 0.5 percent increase relative to the same month in The Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index was 4.7 percentage points higher, on average, in 2018 than in The Chihuahua state retail activity index rose in both October and November and seems poised for growth in 2019.

3 Borderplex Business Barometer Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso

4 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso Seasonally Adjusted Index (October 1980 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

5 240 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso Seasonally Adjusted Index (October 1980 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

6 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

7 20 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

8 El Paso County Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 11 El Paso County Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment , ,000 Number of SNAP Recipients 180, , , , ,000 Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

11 200,000 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment 180,000 Number of SNAP Recipients 160, , ,000 Starting in 2006 September, , the 2009 number 2010 of 2011 SNAP 2012 recipients 2013 is 2014 recorded 2015 for the 2016 end 2017 of each 2018 month Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

12 El Paso Median Housing Prices $160, $155,000 Nominal Price $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

13 $160,000 El Paso Median Housing Prices $150,000 Nominal Price $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Months Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

15 14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Months Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

16 El Paso Gasoline Prices $3.50 Nominal Price (Dollars per Gallon) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 Source: GasBuddy.com

17 $5.00 El Paso Gasoline Prices Nominal Price (Dollars per Gallon) $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ Source: GasBuddy.com

18 Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 9 Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate 8 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases 35, Number of SNAP Cases 32,000 29,000 26,000 Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

21 40,000 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Number of SNAP Cases 30,000 20,000 10, Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

22 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate Price Ratio 2017 Exch. Rate 2018 Price Ratio 2018 Exch. Rate Pesos per Dollar Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

23 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate Price Ratio Exchange Rate Pesos per Dollar Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

24 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index Index (March 1997 = 100) Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

25 150 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index 130 Index (March 1997 = 100) Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

26 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,300, ,200,000 Number of Vehicles 1,100,000 1,000, ,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

27 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 Number of Vehicles 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

28 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 800, ,000 Number of Pedestrians 600, , ,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

29 900,000 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 800,000 Number of Pedestrians 700, , , , Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

30 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 80, Number of Cargo Trucks 70,000 60,000 50,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

31 90,000 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso Number of Cargo Trucks 70,000 50,000 30, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

32 Total Trade (Exports + Imports) in Millions of Nominal Dollars $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $6,000 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

33 $12,000 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade (Exports + Imports) in Millions of Nominal Dollars $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

34 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $5, Total Trade in Millions of 1982 Dollars $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 $6,000 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade in Millions of 1982 Dollars $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

36 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juárez 290, ,000 Number of Jobs 270, , , ,000 Source: INEGI

37 290,000 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juárez 260,000 Number of Jobs 230, , , , Source: INEGI

38 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index Index (Range: 0-100) Source: Banco de México

39 70 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 60 Index (Range: 0-100) Source: Banco de México

40 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua Index (2008=100) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI

41 140 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 120 Index (2008 = 100) Source: INEGI

42 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 1,600, Thousands of June 2012 Pesos 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 Source: INEGI

43 2,000,000 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 1,750,000 Thousands of June 2012 Pesos 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , Source: INEGI

44 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua Index (2008 = 100) Source: INEGI

45 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua Index (2008=100) Source: INEGI

46 University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President John Wiebe, Acting Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice President for Research UTEP College of Business Administration Stephen Crites, Interim Dean Fernando Jiménez, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 500 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX , USA, (915)

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 10

University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance 10-2018 Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 10 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.