Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 10

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1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 10 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, Omar Solís University of Texas at El Paso, Esmeralda P. Muñiz University of Texas at El Paso, Aaron Nazarian University of Texas at El Paso, Steven L. Fullerton University of Texas at El Paso, Follow this and additional works at: Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Solís, Omar; Muñiz, Esmeralda P.; Nazarian, Aaron; and Fullerton, Steven L., "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 10" (2018). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of For more information, please contact

October 2018 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Omar Solis Esmeralda P. Muñiz Aaron Nazarian Steven L.

Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso, TX 79968-0543 Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso Email tomf@utep.edu eporozcogutierrez@miners.

Number 10 Onwards and Upwards The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Business Cycle Index for the El Paso metropolitan economy set another record in August.

2 October 2018 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Omar Solis Esmeralda P. Muñiz Aaron Nazarian Steven L. Fullerton Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso, TX Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso tomf@utep.edu eporozcogutierrez@miners.utep.edu adnazarian@miners.utep.edu slfullerton@miners.utep.edu Telephone Fax Website Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 10 Onwards and Upwards The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Business Cycle Index for the El Paso metropolitan economy set another record in August. To a large extent, that reflects ongoing labor market health. Unemployment has remained below 5 percent in El Paso for the better part of two consecutive years for the first time since Preliminary data indicate that wages are rising at rates in excess of inflation this year, also. Given the above, it is not surprising that the El Paso Household Economic Stress Index continues to remain low by recent standards. Higher interest rates have yet to levy very much damage on household well-being, but that will potentially change in future months. At present, current economic conditions have translated into lower supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP or food stamp) enrollments. El Paso County participation remained below 175,000 for a seventh consecutive month again in September. At $154,000, the median housing price for single-family units was above the prior year level again in August. It has only been in recent months that the median price exceeds $150,000 on a sustained basis. The supply side of the market is still tight. Months of inventory dropped to 4.2 in August, the lowest it has been since The average sales time was only 93 days in August. Unleaded gasoline prices declined slightly to $2.68 per gallon in September. That is 20 cents per gallon above the year-ago average when fuel prices spiked in response to Hurricane Harvey. While gasoline has been relatively expensive throughout the first three quarters, the September price is approximately 58 cents per gallon below the September 2014 average. Geopolitical strife and unpredictable weather patterns contribute to unexpected supply variations in this market and uncertainty abounds as 2018 heads into the fourth quarter. The Las Cruces unemployment rate remained more than 100 basis points below yearago levels for a fifth consecutive month in August. Preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that the Doña Ana County civilian labor force continued to decline in August, as Permian Basin - Little Texas energy companies continue to lure workers out of the Mesilla Valley. Closer to home, employment in Las Cruces has increased on a year-to-year basis for every month in Illustrative of improved labor market health, area SNAP caseloads remained below the 28,000 mark for a seventeenth consecutive month in August. The peso-per-dollar nominal exchange rate declined by 31 centavos in August. Although a new trade accord (USMCA) with Canada and Mexico has been announced, there is enough global economic and financial uncertainty to maintain a sizable gap between the nominal exchange rate and the Borderplex restaurant price ratio. If large scale economic disruptions are avoided, further divergence between those measures should be avoided. Traffic volumes across the international bridges have been relatively stable in For large trucks, that reflects merchandise trade flow patterns through the El Paso Customs District. Manufacturing orders in Northern Mexico have also been fairly stationary in If a business cycle downturn is avoided, reduced trade frictions between Washington and Mexico City may reverse those trends.

3 Borderplex Business Barometer Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso

4 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso Seasonally Adjusted Index (October 1980 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

5 240 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso Seasonally Adjusted Index (October 1980 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

6 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

7 20 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index Index Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

8 El Paso County Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 11 El Paso County Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment 190, ,000 Number of SNAP Recipients 180, , ,000 Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

11 200,000 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment 180,000 Number of SNAP Recipients 160, , , Starting in September, 2014, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month. Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission

12 El Paso Median Housing Prices $160, $155,000 Nominal Price $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

13 $160,000 El Paso Median Housing Prices $150,000 Nominal Price $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Months Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

15 14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso Months Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

16 El Paso Gasoline Prices $ Nominal Price (Dollars per Gallon) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 Source: GasBuddy.com

17 $5.00 El Paso Gasoline Prices Nominal Price (Dollars per Gallon) $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ Source: GasBuddy.com

18 Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate 8 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 7 6 5 4 3 2

19 9 Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate 8 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases 35, Number of SNAP Cases 32,000 29,000 26,000 Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

21 40,000 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Number of SNAP Cases 30,000 20,000 10, Source: New Mexico Human Services Department

22 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate Restaurant Price Ratio 2018 Restaurant Price Ratio 2017 Nominal Exchange Rate 2018 Nominal Exchange Rate Pesos per Dollar Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

23 Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 24 Price Ratio Exchange Rate 20 Pesos per Dollar Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico

24 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index Index (March 1997 = 100) Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

25 150 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index 130 Index (March 1997 = 100) Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

26 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,300, ,200,000 Number of Vehicles 1,100,000 1,000, ,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

27 1,500,000 Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 Number of Vehicles 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

28 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 700, Number of Pedestrians 600, , ,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

29 900,000 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 800,000 Number of Pedestrians 700, , , , Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

30 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso ,000 Number of Cargo Trucks 70,000 60,000 50,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

31 90,000 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso Number of Cargo Trucks 70,000 50,000 30, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection

32 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade (Exports + Imports) in Millions of Nominal Dollars $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

33 $12,000 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade (Exports + Imports) in Millions of Nominal Dollars $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

34 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $5, Total Trade in Millions of 1982 Dollars $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 $6,000 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade in Millions of 1982 Dollars $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1, Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

36 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juárez , ,000 Number of Jobs 270, , , ,000 Source: INEGI

37 290,000 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juárez 260,000 Number of Jobs 230, , , , Source: INEGI

38 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index Index (Range: 0-100) Source: Banco de México

39 70 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 60 Index (Range: 0-100) Source: Banco de México

40 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua Index (2008=100) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI

41 140 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 120 Index (2008 = 100) Source: INEGI

42 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 1,600, Thousands of June 2012 Pesos 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 Source: INEGI

43 2,000,000 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 1,750,000 Thousands of June 2012 Pesos 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , Source: INEGI

44 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua Index (2008 = 100) Source: INEGI

45 Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua Index (2008=100) Source: INEGI

University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Carol Parker, Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice President for Research UTEP College of Business Administration Stephen Crites, Interim Dean

46 University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Carol Parker, Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice President for Research UTEP College of Business Administration Stephen Crites, Interim Dean Steve Johnson, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 500 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX , USA, (915)

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2

University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Economics and Finance Department 2-2019 Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University