2 Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Southwest Business Forum Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 11, 2018
3 Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices
4 Colorado Change in Population Thousands 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Change in Colorado Population Net Migration Natural Increase Colorado s population increases 91,500 in ,600 in th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 88% of growth along Front Range Continued net migration into the state Source: Colorado Demography Office.
5 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands ,330 47, Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
6 State Employment Growth Year-over-Year November 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
7 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Employment Growth Rate, November 2017 YoY Greeley Colorado 1.7% Unemployment Rate November 2017 Greeley Colorado 2.9% Fort Collins-Loveland Fort Collins-Loveland Boulder Boulder Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Colorado Springs Colorado Springs Pueblo Pueblo Grand Junction Percentage Grand Junction Percentage Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
8 Employment In Current Decade National, State, and Local Percent 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Greeley Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Boulder Colorado Colorado Springs National Pueblo Grand Junction 0% -5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
9 Colorado Employment Change 2018 Forecast Employment in Thousands 2,710 2,700 2,690 2,680 2,670 Professional Business Services Trade, Transportation, Utilities Education, Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Construction Government Financial Actvities Other Manufacturing Total jobs gained: 47,100 Mining and Logging Information ,660 2, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).
10 Colorado Wages 2016 Sector Total Employment YoY Employment Growth Wages YoY Wage Growth Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises % $128, % Mining and Logging % $114, % Utilities % $95, % Information % $95, % Professional and Technical Services % $90, % Finance and Insurance % $90, % Wholesale Trade % $79, % Manufacturing % $66, % Construction % $57, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing % $54, % All Industries 2, % $54, % Government % $53, % Transportation and Warehousing % $53, % Health Care and Social Assistance % $48, % Educational Services % $39, % Administrative and Waste Services % $38, % Other Services % $38, % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation % $36, % Retail Trade % $30, % Accommodation and Food Services % $20, % Sources: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
11 Photo courtesy of Luke Gubbels. Agriculture
12 Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income $ Millions 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Net Income Gross Revenue Farm Production Expenses $8.0B $ Millions Net Farm Income 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $1.4 B Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
13 Livestock Cash Receipts $ Millions 6,000 5,000 4,000 $4.7B Beef is the largest share Cattle feeders had a prosperous year 3,000 Potential NAFTA impact Labor Shortages 2,000 Dairy herd and milk production are up 1, Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
14 Crops Cash Receipts $ Millions 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 $2.1B Lack of labor to harvest crops: If You Plant It, Who Will Harvest It? Sectors experiencing growth: grapes, hemp, greenhouses, and nurseries Price of crops lower than cost of production 1,000 NAFTA renegotiations and results will affect agricultural exports Farm consolidation and loss of business in rural communities expected in 2018 Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
15 Natural Resources and Mining
16 Crude Oil Production Largest Producers (July 2017) 1. Texas 2. North Dakota 3. California 4. New Mexico 5. Oklahoma 6. Alaska 7. Colorado 8. Wyoming 9. Louisiana 10. Kansas Millions of Barrels Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
17 Natural Gas Production Billions of Cubic Feet 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,670 Fifth-largest producing state Projected price higher due to colder temperatures Prices in Colorado in 2017 were the 11 th lowest in the country Total production flat due to low prices Value of production to increase slightly 1, Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
18 Value of Natural Resources $ Millions $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $14 B Coal Minerals CO2 Natural Gas Crude Oil $ Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
19 Renewables One of the most ambitious renewable energy portfolios Includes wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass 21.5% of net generation in 2016 Colorado ranks 10 th nationally for wind capacity Colorado ranks 11 th nationally for solar capacity Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.
20 Photo Courtesy Regional Transportation District. Construction
21 Colorado New Housing Units and Households 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Housing Units ,895 more housing units than households ,409 more households than housing units 30,000 20,000 Households 10, Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office.
22 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.
23 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q Q Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Colorado 9.3% Colorado 4% Greeley Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Colorado Springs Fort Collins Pueblo Boulder Grand Junction 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Fort Collins Greeley Colorado Springs Pueblo Grand Junction -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.
24 Residential Building Permits Permits 60,000 50,000 40,000 Multifamily 43,400 30,000 20,000 10,000 Single Family Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
25 Value of Construction Value in Billions $25 $20 $15 Non-Building Non-Residential Residential $19.2 B $10 $5 $ Source: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics.
26 Leisure and Hospitality
27 Colorado Public Lands Visits Millions 70,000 Public Lands Visits , ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Photo courtesy of Colorado State Parks. Sources: National Park Service and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
28 National Skier Visits 1980/ /17 Millions / / / / / / /15 Source: NSAA, National Skier/Snowboarder Visits,
29 DIA Enplanements and Deplanements Millions Sources: Denver International Airport and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
30 Colorado General Fund $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 Excise $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Individual and Corporate Income Sales, Use, and Other Excise Fiscal Years Source: Colorado Office of the State Controller and the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting (December 2017). Note: Excludes revenue transferred to the State Education Fund.
31 Retail Trade Sales Total and Percentage Change $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $3,000 Percent Change 10.0 $2,500 $2,000 General Fund Sales Taxes Net Sales Taxes $1, $1,000 $ $ Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
32 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 2, month total new entity filings 120,000 2, ,000 2,500 2,400 Employment (L Axis) 100,000 90,000 2,300 80,000 2,200 New Entity Filings (R Axis) 70,000 2, Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team. 60,000
33 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) National and State Expectations Colorado United States 25 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 2018
34 Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth PCPI Average Annual Pay % Growth Average Annual Pay Unemployment Rate Labor Force % Growth FHFA Home Price Index Growth Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/17), U.S. Census Bureau (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2017), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q3 2017), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.
35 Potential Headwinds Interest rates Global growth Commodity prices Value of the dollar Drought and weather Policy
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