2017 Nebraska Profile

Transcription

1 2017 Nebraska Profile State, 9 NEW Regions, 93 Counties, plus 31 Cities Three Volumes Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics and Trends Summary of Findings Discuss Dashboard 2017 Nebraska Profile 1

2 Nine Regions and 93 Counties 2017 Nebraska Profile 2

3 Nebraska Dashboard New Features Enhanced Look and Feel of Dashboard. Added Interactive Long Read function Nebraska Profile 3

4 Demographics People Coming To Nebraska Population Estimates: Births, Deaths, and Migration 2000 Census 1,711,263 Natural Increase ,206 Net Migration , Population Estimates 1,796, Census 1,826,341 Natural Increase ,402 Net Migration , Population Estimate 1,896, Nebraska Profile 4

5 Demographics Nebraska Population Increasing 1,950,000 Nebraska Population State of Nebraska 2000, 2010 Census and Intercensal Estimates 1,900,000 1,896,190 1,850,000 1,826,341 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,711,263 1,650,000 1,600, Nebraska Profile 5

6 Demographics Nebraska Population Increasing 1.4% One Year Population Percent Change Nebraska vs. United States Population Estimates 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% N.E. U.S Nebraska Profile 6

7 Demographics Population falling: years old Population increasing: and Age Population Change by Age Census 2000 Census 2010 July 2015 Es t. % Change Under , , , % 15 to , , , % 25 to , , , % 35 to , , , % 45 to , , , % 55 to , , , % 65 and Older 232, , , % Total 1,711,263 1,826,341 1,896, % 2017 Nebraska Profile 7

8 Demographics North declining South increasing slowly Urbanized counties growing faster Regional Population Change 2000, 2010 Census and Population Estim ates Zone % Change North 378, , , , , , % South 477, , , , , , % Urban 855, ,591 1,011,347 1,025,225 1,039,283 1,052, % Nebraska 1,711,230 1,826,341 1,855,973 1,869,300 1,882,980 1,896, % 2017 Nebraska Profile 8

9 Demographics Census Bureau 5-year growth by County 2017 Nebraska Profile 9

10 Demographics DMV data indicate modest growth Quarterly Net Migration In Nebraska Drawn From Driver's License Exchanges ,000 Net Driver's Licenses 3,000 2,000 1, , Year and Quarter -First-half of 2016 was 1,901 larger than First-half Nebraska Profile 10

11 Demographics Positive change in 2015 Indicators of Migration Nebraska Department of Motor Vehicles - Net Exchanged Age * ,781 2,569 2,139 1,815 1,427 1, ,084 2,712 2,502 1,942 1,695 1,090 1, ,524 2,475 1,745 1,732 1, ,159 1,544 1,187 1, Missing Total 7,280 10,699 8,329 7,610 5,984 3,750 3,227 1,901 *First-half of Nebraska Profile 11

12 Demographics Positive net exchanges in all regions Urban had largest increase Net of Exchanged & Surrendered Licenses Nebraska Department of Motor Vehicles Region * North 1,936 1,297 1, South 2,665 2,161 2,046 1, Urban 6,106 4,881 4,556 3,781 2,411 2,225 1,391 Out of State Total 10,699 8,329 7,610 5,984 3,750 3,227 1,901 *First-half of Nebraska Profile 12

13 Demographics DMV data indicate people moved to Nebraska from Iowa, Colorado, California and other states Domestic In Migration State 2016* Iowa 1,818 Colorado 1,296 California 906 Kansas 839 Texas 943 Missouri 676 South Dakota 523 All Other 6,594 Total 13,595 *First-half of Nebraska Profile 13

14 Demographics DMV data indicate people moved out of Nebraska to Iowa, Colorado, Texas and other states Domestic Out Migration State 2016* Iowa 1,991 Colorado 1,299 Texas 1,006 Kansas 783 Florida 765 Missouri 650 South Dakota 540 All Other 4,660 Total 11,694 *First-half of Nebraska Profile 14

15 Demographics Nebraska School Age Population rose above previous peak 200,000 Nebraska School Age Population State of Nebraska Nebraska Department of Education Data 380,000 Number of Children in Age Groups 160, ,000 80,000 40, , , , ,000 Total Children , years of age years of age years of age Total Children 2017 Nebraska Profile 15

16 Demographics PUMS data shows migration increased in data will be available early January Population Migration (Place of Residence One Year Ago) PUMS Migration from Nebraska Intrastate 253, , , ,775 Domestic Interstate 54,013 48,700 48,971 53,511 Total U.S. 307, , , ,286 International 6,860 5,829 9,812 9,780 Total Migration 314, , , , Nebraska Profile 16

17 Demographics PUMS Data show people moved to Nebraska from Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, Texas and other states Domestic Migration State 2015 Iowa 6,905 Illinois 5,643 Texas 4,731 Colorado 3,931 California 3,719 Kansas 3,192 All other 25,390 Nebraska 250,775 Total 304, Nebraska Profile 17

18 Economics Business establishments decreased from 2007 through 2011, but increased to 52,991 in ,000 Nebraska Business Establishments State of Nebraska Census Data: ,991 Business Establishments 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42, Year 2017 Nebraska Profile 18

19 Economics Employment increased from 2014 to ,350,000 1,250,000 Nebraska Full and Part-Time Employment State of Nebraska BEA Data: ,304,802 Employment: Jobs 1,150,000 1,050, , , , , Year 2017 Nebraska Profile 19

20 Economics Decreasing labor force participation rate, but still much higher than U.S Labor Force Participation Rates State of Nebraska BLS Data Nebraska U.S Nebraska Profile 20

21 Economics State unemployment rates still below national rates 10.0 Unemployment Rates State of Nebraska vs. U.S BLS Data Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate Nebraska Unemployment Rate 2017 Nebraska Profile 21

22 Economics Nebraska 2016 unemployment higher than Unemployment Rates State of Nebraska vs. U.S October 2016 Monthly BLS Data Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nebraska U.S Nebraska Profile 22

23 Economics Unemployment higher in south zone, but is falling throughout the State 5.00 Nebraska Unemployment Rates by Zone State of Nebraska BLS Data: Unemployment Rate Year North South Urban 2017 Nebraska Profile 23

24 Economics Earned income per job increased Real Avg $ Per Job 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings Per Job State of Nebraska : Real 2015 Dollars 58,228 53,754 25, Nebraska USA 2017 Nebraska Profile 24

25 Economics Earned income per job increased, , slight decrease ,000 57,500 Real Earnings Per Job State of Nebraska vs. U.S , Real 2015 Dollars 58,228 Real Avg $ Per Job 55,000 52,500 50,000 47,500 45,000 42,500 40,000 53, Year Nebraska USA 2017 Nebraska Profile 25

26 Economics Nebraska per capita income decreased 55,000 50,000 Nebraska vs U.S. Real Per Capita Income State of Nebraska : Real 2015 Dollars 48,544 Real Per Capita Income 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 48, Nebraska USA 2017 Nebraska Profile 26

27 Economics Nebraska per capita income increased, , but small decrease ,000 Nebraska vs U.S. Real Per Capita Income State of Nebraska : Real 2015 Dollars 48,544 Real Per Capita Income 47,500 45,000 42,500 40,000 37,500 48,112 35, Nebraska USA 2017 Nebraska Profile 27

28 Economics Nebraska and national poverty rates rose 18.0 Poverty Rates State of Nebraska vs. U.S Census Bureau Data 17.0 Poverty Rate Nebraska U.S Nebraska Profile 28

29 Housing Housing production level in 2015, SF units up slightly 12,000 Total Dwelling Units Permitted State of Nebraska Census Data 10,000 Permits Issued 8,000 6,000 8,096 5,198 4,000 2, Total Units Single Family Units 2017 Nebraska Profile 29

30 Housing Housing increased in South and Urban, small decrease in North Housing Unit Change by Zone 2010 Census and 2015 Intercensal Estimates Region 2010 Census 2015 Est Change North 168, , % South 217, , % Urban 410, , % Nebraska 796, , % 2017 Nebraska Profile 30

31 Housing Occupied and vacant units: 2010 and 2015 Housing Units by Tenure 2010 Census and year ACS Data Tenure 2010 Census 2015 ACS Units % Units % Occupied Housing Units 721, % 736, % Owner-Occupied 484, % 487, % Renter-Occupied 236, % 248, % Vacant Housing Units 75, % 73, % Total Housing Units 796, % 809, % 2017 Nebraska Profile 31

32 Housing Disposition of vacant housing units Disposition of Vacant Housing Units 2010 Census and year ACS Data Disposition 2010 Census 2015 ACS Units % Unit % For Rent 24, % 15, % For Sale 9, % 7, % Rented or Sold, Not Occupied 4, % 5, % For Seasonal, Recreational, or Occa 13, % 14, % For Migrant Workers % % Other Vacant 24, % 30, % Total 75, % 73, % 2017 Nebraska Profile 32

33 Housing Average prices for single-family homes increased in all areas Average Sales Prices in PAD Data Single-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal Year Zone North 94,645 93,743 99, , , , ,808 South 104, , , , , , ,191 Urban 161, , , , , , ,097 Nebraska 138, , , , , , , Nebraska Profile 33

34 Housing Prices by County from PAD 2017 Nebraska Profile 34

35 Housing Size of single-family homes sold mixed Average sqft 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Average Single-Family Square Foot PAD Database: Fiscal Before Year Built North South Urban 2017 Nebraska Profile 35

36 Housing Increased prices for newer homes 300,000 Average Single-Family Average Sales Price PAD Database: Fiscal ,000 Average Sales Price 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Before Year Built North South Urban 2017 Nebraska Profile 36

37 Housing Single-family market value per square foot increased Average Single-Family Prices Per Square Foot PAD Database: Fiscal Average Price per sqft Before Year Built North South Urban 2017 Nebraska Profile 37

38 Housing Value of single-family construction remains level 220, ,000 Value of Single Family Construction State of Nebraska U.S. Census Bureau Data 200, ,000 Real Value, $1,000s 160, , , ,000 80, Year 2017 Nebraska Profile 38

39 Housing Average prices of MLS homes sold rises 25,000 Average Home Sales Prices and Number of Sales State of Nebraska First Half of 2016 Association of Realtors Data 188, ,000 Number of Sales 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, , , , , ,000 Average Nominal Price ,000 Number of Sales Average Sales 2017 Nebraska Profile 39

40 Housing Housing price index rose slightly FHFA Housing Price Index State of Nebraska Third Quarter 2016 FHFA Data Nebraska USA 2017 Nebraska Profile 40

41 Housing Yearly survey of Nebraska rental properties Nebraska Survey of Rental Properties Completed Surveys: ,700 2,200 2,092 2,512 2,517 2,219 2,135 1,700 1, ,304 1,463 1,089 1,613 1,681 1, Saw continued consolidation in rental market 2017 Nebraska Profile 41

42 Housing Number of units captured each year 130, , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 57,009 73,683 Nebraska Survey of Rental Properties Rental Units Survey: ,557 83,929 81,153 82,251 97,976 98,400 99, , , , , , ,477 50,000 40, Year 2017 Nebraska Profile 42

43 Housing Observed vacancy rates each year 7.5 Nebraska Survey of Rental Properties Rental Units Surveyed and Vacancy Rate Nebraska Profile 43

44 Housing Observed vacancy rates each year 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% Nebraska Survey of Rental Properties Rental Units Survey: % 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.8% 3.7% North South Urban 2017 Nebraska Profile 44

45 Housing Results from fall 2016 survey indicate Statewide vacancy rates increased Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys Zone 2016 Survey Vacancy Rates Srvys. Units North , % 4.2% 5.4% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% South , % 3.8% 4.4% 3.9% 3.2% 4.8% Urban , % 3.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.7% Nebraska 2, , % 3.4% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 4.0% 2017 Nebraska Profile 45

46 Housing Single-Family and Apartment Rents Rent ($) Single Family vs. Apartment Rent by Year Rental Survey Data Single Family Units Year Apartments 2017 Nebraska Profile 46

47 Housing Single-Family and Apartment Rents by bedroom size Average Market Rate Rents by Bedroom Size 2016 Survey of Rental Properties Number of Single Apartment Mobile Bedroom s Fam ily Units Units Hom es Other Units Total Efficiency. $ $ $ One $ $ $ $ Tw o $ $ $ $ $ Three $ $ $ $ $ Four $1, $1, $ $1, Don t know $ $ $ $ Total $ $ $ $ $ Nebraska Profile 47

48 Housing Degree of need for new construction = no need; 5 = extreme need Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys Zone Degree of Need for New Units North South Urban Nebraska Nebraska Profile 48

49 Housing Degree of need for new construction Percent Distribution 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 36.7% Need for New Rental Construction State of Nebraska Survey of Rental Properties 17.5% 16.3% 12.9% No Need Extreme Need 16.6% Nebraska Profile 49

50 Summary of Findings Population declining in rural areas Population growing in cities and south east/central Nebraska unemployment rates falling Residential construction up 6.5%, with single-family production up 9.6 %, 2017 Nebraska Profile 50

51 Summary of Findings Rental vacancy rates are up slightly Apartment rents rising Housing market remains active. Draft For Public Review to be released on Jan 27 th, Final Report released on Feb 24 th. Presentation(s) at the NIFA housing conference in March Nebraska Profile 51 December 16, 2015