Iowa Land Values. Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist
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1 Iowa Land Values Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist U.S. Bank Ag Summit, Ames, IA, January 10 th, 2017
2 The new Mike Duffy 30 29
3 A Quick Introduction: Dr. Wendong Zhang Grown up in a rural county in NE China Attended college in Shanghai and Hong Kong Ph.D. in Ag Econ in 2015 from Ohio State 2012 summer intern at USDA-ERS on farm economy and farmland values Research and extension interests: land value, land ownership, agriculture and the environment, China Ag
4 China s Provinces My Hometown
5 My Hometown: Shenxian, Shandong Province
6 Intensification of Land- Use in China Greenhouse plastic film - Shandong Province
7 High-Speed Rail in China
8 Source: Economist IMF
9 China vs. US Zhang 2015 Ag Policy Review
10 Billion $ 3, ,000.0 Why Care About Farmland Market? Distribution of U.S. Farm Assets 2, , , , F Real estate Livestock and poultry Machinery and motor vehicles Crops stored Purchased inputs Financial assets Source: USDA ERS
11 Survey Respondents by Occupation, 2016 Farm manager Appraiser Ag lender Broker/ Realtor PERCENT Farmer /Landowner Gov t Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast STATE Other
12 Land Value ($ per acre) AVERAGE VALUES all farmland $7,183 As of Nov Iowa Nominal and Inflation-adjusted Farmland Values % Nominal value Inflation-adjusted value (2015 dollars)
13 Annual Percentage Change (%) % Change in Nominal Iowa Farmland Values % 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
14 Land Values by District and Land Quality, Nov 2016 District Average Value % Change High Quality % Change Medium Quality % Change Low Quality % Change Northwest $9, % $10, % $8, % $6, % North Central $7, % $8, % $6, % $5, % Northeast $7, % $8, % $6, % $4, % West Central $7, % $8, % $6, % $4, % Central $7, % $9, % $7, % $5, % East Central $7, % $9, % $7, % $5, % Southwest $6, % $7, % $5, % $4, % South Central $4, % $5, % $4, % $2, % Southeast $6, % $9, % $6, % $3, % Iowa Avg. $7, % $8, % $6, % $4, %
15 Livestock and Crop Inventory by District Chickens, Layers Inventory 2012 Harvested Acres 2015 Hogs Milk Cows Cattle Corn Soybean Northwest 30% 26% 29% 22% 15% 16% North Central 64% 16% 4% 6% 14% 13% Northeast 1% 12% 51% 16% 12% 8% West Central 0% 13% 1% 13% 15% 16% Central 3% 13% 1% 7% 15% 14% East Central 1% 5% 10% 11% 10% 10% Southwest 0% 2% 0% 9% 7% 9% South Central 0% 2% 1% 9% 4% 5% Southeast 1% 11% 3% 6% 7% 8% State Inventory 20.4 million 20.4 million 0.17 million 2.34 million 13.2 million 9.8 million
16 Land Values by County, 2016
17 Percent Changes in Land Values from Nov 2015
18 ISU survey results echo other surveys
19 ISU survey results echo other surveys Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Kansas City November 2016 Ag Letter
20 ISU survey results echo other surveys Pasture value USDA June Area Survey, August 2016
21 Farmland Market Outlook Consensus: Going down Divergence: Magnitude & Speed of the Decline
22 Iowa Farmland Sale Activity Relative to Last Year Iowa Farmland Sale Activity Change More Less Same
23 Sale activity index (% reproted more - % reported less)*100 Percent change Farmland supply tends to be tighter in down years 160 ISU sale activity index and percent change in Iowa land value, (% reported more sales - % reported less sales) % % 20% 80 10% % 20-10% 0 Land Value % Change Sale Activity Index -20%
24 Number of Public Auctions Limited farmland supply tends to bolster land values 250 Number of Public Auctions by Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Farm Credit Service of America
25 Looking Ahead
26 Major Positive Factors Affecting Iowa Farmland Market, Positive Factors, 2016 (Percent) 0 Favorable Interest Rates Strong Yields Land Availability (Limited Supply) Strong Demand (Many Buyers)
27 Major Negative Factors Affecting Iowa Farmland Market, Commodity Prices (Lower) Negative Factors, 2016 (Percent) Input Costs (Higher) Cash Rent Rates (Weak) Livestock Losses Stock Market / Economy/Global
28 Iowa Farmland Purchases by Buyer Types Existing Farmers Investors New Farmers Other
29 Iowa Landowners tend to hold the farmland Years of ownership % of Iowa Farmland Less than 10 years 24% Years 21% Years 19% Years 15% > 40 Years 20% Source: Ag DM PM Iowa Farmland Ownership and Tenure Survey
30 S&P 500 vs. Farmland Values: A Question of Timing S&P more valuable in 2015 Return to S & P Investment Relative to Iowa Farmland Investment Iowa farmland more valuable in 2015 Source: Zhang and Duffy Ag DM Newsletter April 2016
31 Iowa Farmland Purchases by Seller Types, 2016 Active Farmers Retired Farmers Estate Sales Investors Other PERCENT Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast STATE
32 Cash Crop Price Predictions for Nov 2017, 2018, 2020 Cash Corn Prices Cash Soybean Prices Northwest $ 3.34 $ 3.65 $ 3.98 $ 9.25 $ 9.61 $ North Central $ 3.42 $ 3.59 $ 3.93 $ 9.16 $ 9.46 $ Northeast $ 3.41 $ 3.59 $ 3.95 $ 9.19 $ 9.28 $ 9.76 West Central $ 3.34 $ 3.59 $ 4.02 $ 9.12 $ 9.33 $ Central $ 3.36 $ 3.50 $ 3.77 $ 9.17 $ 9.40 $ 9.86 East Central $ 3.42 $ 3.58 $ 3.89 $ 9.26 $ 9.51 $ Southwest $ 3.31 $ 3.56 $ 3.94 $ 9.15 $ 9.42 $ South Central $ 3.36 $ 3.59 $ 3.90 $ 9.51 $ 9.76 $ Southeast $ 3.50 $ 3.83 $ 4.17 $ 9.49 $ 9.59 $ STATE $ 3.38 $ 3.60 $ 3.94 $ 9.24 $ 9.48 $ 10.06
33 Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Source: Chad Hart
34 Farmland Values Predictions for Nov 2017, 2018, 2020 Reported Average Land Value Predictions Values as of Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov 2018 Nov 2020 Northwest $9,912 $10,085 $9,786 $9,983 North Central $8,089 $7,908 $7,765 $7,966 Northeast $7,582 $7,799 $7,624 $7,704 West Central $7,628 $7,689 $7,501 $8,058 Central $8,156 $8,623 $8,396 $8,593 East Central $7,976 $8,188 $7,943 $8,057 Southwest $6,452 $6,376 $6,189 $6,560 South Central $4,497 $4,958 $4,796 $4,917 Southeast $7,297 $7,470 $7,451 $7,530 STATE $7,700 $7,858 $7,662 $7,877
35
36 Source: Purdue Ag Barometer
37 Iowa Ag Real Estate Values Source: USDA-NASS; Ag Census
38 A replay of 1920s or 1980s farm crisis? Source: USDA-ERS, Ag DM C2-70, Zhang and Beek (2016) Farm Policy Journal
39 Key Indicators to Watch Land Value = net income / interest rate USDA Farm Income Forecast Price Outlook Ag Exports / Exchange Rate China Ethanol, E-85, RFS Fed s move on Interest Rate Ag Loan Delinquency; Vendor Credit
40 US Farm Income Source: USDA OCE
41
42 Impact of Trade War w China and Mexico 45% tariff on China, 35% on Mexico Aborted in one year Source: Peterson Institute
43 A New, Interactive Iowa Farmland Value Portal
44 Iowa Farmland Value Portal
45 Iowa Farmland Value Portal twitter #ISUland value
46 Iowa Farmland Value Portal ww.card.iastate.edu/ farmland twitter #ISUlandvalue
47
48 Thank You! Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor and Extension Economist 478C Heady Hall Iowa State University
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