AG OUTLOOK 2019: GROWING LOCALLY, SELLING GLOBALLY

Transcription

1 AG OUTLOOK 2019: GROWING LOCALLY, SELLING GLOBALLY Robert Johansson Chief Economist, USDA Feb 2019 Credit: COURTESY OF NIC BENNER University of Missouri

2 2 Outline 1. Farm economy 2. Crops & Livestock 3. Trade 4. Farm Bill

3 3 Growth forecasts less optimistic --- global purchasing power falls by $0.7 trillion (cumulative from ) Percent change World GDP April 2018 forecast October 2018 forecast January 2019 interim forecast Percent change Emerging Markets and Developing Countries Data: IMF April 2018 forecast October 2018 forecast January 2019 interim forecast

4 4 Dollar up year-over-year, but mixed over the last few months US$ appreciation over last 12 months Argentina peso 95% Brazil real 18% Russia ruble 17% Australia dollar 14% Euroland euro 10% Canadian dollar 7% China yuan 7% Taiwan dollar 6% Korea won 5% Mexico peso 4% Japan yen 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Data: Thomson Reuters Datastream Last 6 months 36% -1% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% 0% -1% 2% -2%

5 F 5 Real farm income settles; equity shows slight decline Billion dollars ($2018) Billion dollars ($2018) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- Data: USDA-ERS Net farm income Equity

6 F Borrowing against real estate equity fuels debt growth Billion dollars (2018$) Billion dollars (2018$) Total debt Real estate debt Non-real estate debt Data: USDA-ERS

7 Debt-to-assets remain low % but debt financing highest since % 60% Debt financing Debt-to-Asset ratio 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 25% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13.5% 10% 0% Data: USDA-ERS

8 10-year average of bankruptcies per 10,000 farms Nationally, 2.35 bankruptcies per 10,000 farms 10 x s lower than peak in 1987 GA ME DE NV NJ NM RI WY FL AZ OR WA TN AL MS SC VAKY OK OH ILIA MO TX WV CT MI CO MT CA ID NC PA IN AR ND UT MN VT LA SD NH MD NE KS NY WI Number of bankruptcies in 2018 per 10,000 farms Data: USDA-ERS, U.S. Courts

9 9 How optimistic are you about economic prospects over the next 6 months? Feb 2018 = Feb 2018 = Purdue Creighton Corn price NAHB Michigan Data: USDA, UofMich, Purdue, Fed Reserve, NAHB, Creighton.

10 10 U.S. crop forecast

11 Data: USDA, BLS 11 Real prices trend down, as crop production outstrips demand 2005=100 Real Crop Prices 2005= Corn price down 59% since 1960, soybeans by 52%, rice by 70%, and wheat by 65%. Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat World Crop Production Corn output has risen 435% since 1960, soybeans by 1,190%, rice by 225%, and wheat by 215%. Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat

12 12 Global stocks in days of use: tightening market for corn and soybeans over next few years Days of use Wheat Corn Rice Soybeans Data: USDA

13 13 Data: IGC, FOB prices $/MT U.S. soybeans prices fall under trade dispute China retaliates against U.S. soybeans U.S. & China 90 day truce, China pledges U.S. soybean purchases

14 Alternative markets for U.S. soybeans up, but not enough to recover exports to China Year over Year Change (mmts) U.S. exports for 2018/19 are 13.5 mmts behind last year Data: USDA *Marketing Year to Date (Sept to Feb)

15 2007/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /29 15 Stocks overhang will take years to unwind U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks with USDA Baseline 10 year Projections Million MTs Stocks-to-use (%) 25% Tariffs imposed July 2018 Soybean stocks Stocks-to-Use 20% 15% % 5% 0% Data: USDA

16 16 Some prices expected to edge up into 2019 Crop 2019F % (YoY) 5 year low 2019F 5 Year high Soybeans ($/bu) % Corn ($/bu) % All Rice ($/cwt) % Wheat ($/bu) % Cotton ($/lb) % Data: USDA

17 17 Corn and bean area at parity, wheat holding Crop 2019F (mil. acres) % (YoY) 5 year low 2019F 5 Year high Corn % Soybeans % Wheat % All cotton % Rice % Data: USDA

18 18 Photograph: Rachel Doyle Outlook for Livestock and Dairy

19 19 Real prices trend down, as U.S. livestock production outstrips demand 2005=100 Real U.S Livestock, Poultry, and Milk Prices 2005=100 U.S. Meat and Milk Production Steer price down 44% Beef output has risen 87% since 350 since 1960, hogs by 68%, 1960, pork by 143%, milk by milk by 52%, and chicken %, and chicken by 1,050%. 300 by 56% (from 1964) Steers Chicken 50 Milk 0 Hogs Beef 30 Chicken Pork 0 Milk Data: USDA, BLS

20 African Swine Fever (ASF) may affect global pork demand 20 Cents/lb 75 U.S. Hog Futures China 232 retaliation China 301 retaliation & Mexico 232 retaliation Aug 2018, China confirms first outbreak of ASF Source: USDA-APHIS Data: CME.

21 Low prices for steers and hogs in Livestock 2019F % (YoY) 5 year low 2019F 5 Year high Steers ($/cwt) % Hogs ($/cwt) % Broilers ($/cwt) % Milk ($/cwt) % Data: USDA

22 Meat and milk production to be record high in Item 2019F (billion lbs) % (YoY) 5 year low 2019F 5 Year high Beef % Pork % Broilers % Total % Milk % Data: USDA 1 Total red meat and poultry

23 23 Trade Outlook

24 24 Agricultural export values expected to remain flat in 2019, China share down sharply Billion dollars % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Data: USDA Canada Mexico China Other % of China Share

25 Billons of pounds Billions of pounds Global demand drives growth in U.S. livestock and dairy exports 10 Beef Pork Chicken 60 Dairy, Fat-Basis Dairy, Skim Solids-Basis Data: USDA

26 1996/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /29 26 and drives growth in U.S. feed grain exports Million metric tons Million metric tons Corn Wheat Soybeans Data: USDA

27 New FTAs may impact U.S. access into top export markets ROW $342 b Canada $34 b Mexico $27 b EU $130 b Top 5 U.S. Export Markets FTAs (excl. U.S.) Canada-EU (CETA) EU-Mexico EU-Japan CPTPP (TPP-11) Australia-China New Zealand-China 27 Canada $21 b Japan $52 b ROW $55 b Mexico $19 b Data: Global Trade Atlas China $118 b Global ag imports (2017) $703 billion (excl. U.S.) U.S.-FTAs with Top 5 Export Markets NAFTA (in effect) USMCA (signed) Proposed: U.S.-Japan, U.S.-EU, U.S.-UK China $20 b Japan $12 b EU $11 b Total U.S. ag exports (2017) $138 billion

28 28 USMCA strengthens North American market integration $ bil. U.S. share of Mexico s Ag Imports, 2017 $3.0 United States $2.5 Rest of World 120% 100% NEXT STEPS USITC report to Congress $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 84% 96% 65% 82% 87% 83% 77% 99% 91% 91% 68% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Administration submits implementing legislation package to Congress After bill is reported out of the Committees, the House and Senate vote on the bill Bill signed into law, agreement is implemented by proclamation Data: USDA-FAS

29 29 Farm Policy

30 Farm Bill outlay = $428 billion over 5 years Commodity Programs (CCC) $31.4 b Conservation $29.3 b Other $3.5 b An increase of ~$400 mil. per year over the 2014 Farm Bill for FY FY2023 Crop Insurance $38.0 b Percent spent on Nutrition remains at 76% but with more funding for employment training Nutrition $326.0 b Increase in Research funding of $365 mil. over 5 years Data: CBO

31 Billion dollars Characteristics of US farm programs changing over time; crop insurance increasing in importance Coupled Partially decoupled Decoupled Emergency Conservation Crop insurance 10-year average = $18.7 billion per year --- $6.2 billion from crop insurance f Data: USDA, fiscal year. WHIP MFP

32 32 ARC/PLC payments per base acre expected to change under 2018 Farm Bill Farm 2014 Bill: June 2017 Baseline 2018 Farm Bill: January 2019 Baseline Corn $98.85 $ Soybeans $34.16 $42.67 Wheat $75.10 $60.90 Seed Cotton* Not Applicable $ Rice $ $ Peanuts $ $ Seed cotton became a covered commodity under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (BBA) Minor adjustments were made to Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) in the 2018 Farm Bill. Data: CBO *Uses 80% of generic base acres enrolled in Official estimates of seed cotton base acres are not yet available.

33 33 Dairy operations are decreasing in number, as herd sizes grow Licensed Operations Dairy Cattle (millions) Median dairy herd size 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Licensed Operations (Left axis) Total Inventory (Right axis) Number of cattle Data: USDA-NASS

34 Net benefits for a median-sized dairy (900 cows 19.5M pounds) 34 5-year average MPP (2014 Farm Bill) 5-year average DMC (2018 Farm Bill) Premium for $8.00/cwt margin $230,184 $268,396 Premium for $9.50/cwt margin NA $7,500 (for first 5M lbs only) Average annual net payment $8.00/cwt margin coverage $9.50/cwt margin coverage -$172,119 NA -$218,076 $40,421 Data: USDA Note: Applies MPP and DMC provisions to data.

35 Data: USDA 35 Conclusion ---- Growing Locally and Selling Globally U.S. Global Share of Production U.S. Global Share of Exports Pork 11% 3rd Pork 32% 2nd ($6B) Beef 20% 1st Beef 14% 1st ($7B) Cotton 16% 3rd Cotton 35% 1st ($6B) Soybeans 34% 1st Soybeans 33% 2nd ($22B) Wheat 7% 5th Wheat 15% 2nd ($6B) Corn 33% 1st Corn 37% 1st ($9B) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% United States ROW 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% United States ROW

36 36 Growing economies, growing supplies, and falling real food prices improve food security 2018 = 21.1% food insecure 2028 = 10.4% food insecure Source: USDA-ERS.