Overview of the Regional Economy

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1 Overview of the Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer Presentation to the Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC) October 13, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of August 2017 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL HI PR Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 1

3 Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to August 2017 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL HI PR Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 2

4 Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 120 Index (Dec2007=100) New York City Sep 100 United States New York Puerto Rico New Jersey Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 3

5 120 Index (Dec2007=100) Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Aug 116 New York City Long Island Sep Orange-Rockland -Westchester Fairfield United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 4

6 Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 120 Index (Dec2007=100) Albany Sep 104 Upstate Aug Glens Falls Utica-Rome 92 United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 5

7 Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 120 Index (Dec2007=100) United States Sep 104 Buffalo Rochester Aug Syracuse Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 6

8 Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions 60 Diffusion Index Empire State Manufacturing Survey Sep 0-20 Business Leaders Survey Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 7

9 Future Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead 60 Diffusion Index Empire State Manufacturing Survey Sep 0 Business Leaders Survey Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 8

10 NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels 270 Thousands Shading indicates time between securities peak and trough Thousands 4, , Total Employment Minus Securities (right axis) Securities Employment (left axis) Aug 3,750 3, , , , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations. 9

11 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 120 Index (Mar2006=100) 110 NYC Metro 100 Aug 90 Westchester Fairfield United States Rockland Shading indicates NBER recession Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 10

12 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 160 Index (Mar2006=100) 140 Kings 120 Manhattan 100 Queens Nassau Aug 80 Suffolk Shading indicates NBER recession United States Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 11

13 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 130 Index (Mar2006=100) Buffalo Upstate NY 100 Rochester Albany Aug United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 12

14 What Lies Ahead for Puerto Rico & the US Virgin Islands? Both Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands were in precarious shape, economically & fiscally, prior to hurricanes Irma & Maria. To early to assess costs & fallout from these hurricanes unprecedented for PR but there are precedents elsewhere. USVI saw similar devastation from Hugo ( 89) and Marilyn ( 95). Employment fell sharply but rebounded within 6-12 months; tourism industries appear to have been hit hard, while construction got a boost. There do not appear to have been significant long-term effects on population or employment. New Orleans was devastated by Katrina (2005): population & employment are still well below pre-storm levels a decade later. 13

15 Thousands of Jobs (Seasonally Adj) 46 Total Employment US Virgin Islands: Before & After Hurricanes Total (Hugo 1989) Total (Marilyn 1995) Months Before/After Hurricane Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY staff calculations. 14

16 Thousands of Jobs (Seasonally Adj) 7.5 Accommodation & Food Service Employment US Virgin Islands: Before & After Hurricanes Accom. & Food (Hugo 1989) Accom. & Food (Marilyn 1995) Months Before/After Hurricane Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY staff calculations. 15

17 Thousands of Jobs (Seasonally Adj) 4.5 Construction Employment US Virgin Islands: Before & After Hurricanes Construction (Hugo 1989) Construction (Marilyn 1995) Months Before/After Hurricane Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY staff calculations. 16

18 Regional Recap NYC continues to lead the region in job growth, followed by Long Island. Housing markets in these areas have been strong. New Jersey has lagged, and Fairfield County has been weak both in terms of job growth and home prices. Job growth has slowed to a crawl across most of upstate NY, but housing markets have continued to strengthen. Manufacturers report brisk growth in business activity, while service firms indicate more subdued growth. The securities industry, which typically drives NYC s economy has remained flat throughout this rapid expansion. The Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are expected to see steep job losses in October but the long-term outlook is unclear. 17

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