Regional Economic Conditions

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1 Regional Economic Conditions Jason Bram, Research Officer Community Advisory Group Meeting June 27, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of May 2017 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL HI PR Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 1

3 Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions 60 Diffusion Index Empire State Manufacturing Survey 0 Jun Business Leaders Survey (service sector) Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2

4 Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted 12 Percent 10 New York City New Jersey 8 6 United States 4 New York State May Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 3

5 Labor Force Participation Seasonally Adjusted 70 Percent 65 New Jersey New York State May United States 60 New York City Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 4

6 Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 120 Index (Dec2007=100) May 104 New York City 100 United States New York Puerto Rico New Jersey Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 5

7 Dutchess- Putnam Recent Job Growth in the Region Percent Change from 2016 to 2017, Year-to-Date (Jan-May) Strong Growth Moderate Growth Modest Growth Little Change Declining Watertown North Country Glens Falls Utica Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Albany Ithaca Elmira Binghamton Kingston Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands Orange- Rockland- Westchester Bergen- Hudson- Passaic Newark Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. Middlesex Monmouth Ocean NYC 6

8 Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) New York City Long Island U.S. Orange-Rockland Westchester Fairfield May Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 7

9 NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels 270 Thousands Shading indicates time between securities peak and trough Thousands 4, , Total Employment Minus Securities (right axis) Securities Employment (left axis) May 3,750 3, , , , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations. 8

10 NYC Tech Employment in Select Industries Number of Payroll Jobs, 2007 and 2015 Scientific R & D Services 15,509 13, Computer Systems Design & Related 39,706 62,556 Internet Pub, Web Search Portals Etc. ISPs; Search Portals; Data Processing Software Publishers Electronic Shopping Computer Manufacturing 4,444 7,746 5,382 5,412 1,507 10,508 4,568 4,028 3,272 28,496 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations. 9

11 Trends in NYC Tech Employment Employment Levels in Thousands 150 Thousands Jun NYC Tech Manhattan Tech Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations. 10

12 Industry s Concentration on Long Island, 2016 Long Island Industry Specialization Employment Change, Location Quotient, and Sector Size Transit & Ground Passenger Transport Publishing Information Computer & Electronic Mfg Finance & Insurance Construction Real Estate Non-store Retailers Arts, Ent & Rec Chemical Mfg Ambulatory Health Care Personal & Laundry Restaurants & Bars Hospitals Social Assistance Transportation Equipment Mfg Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Bubble Size Represents Number of Employees in % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent Change in Long Island Employment: Source: New York State Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). 11

13 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 160 Index (Mar2006=100) 140 Kings 120 Manhattan 100 Queens Nassau Apr 80 Suffolk Shading indicates NBER recession United States Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 12

14 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 130 Index (Mar2006=100) Buffalo Upstate NY 100 Rochester Albany Apr United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 13

15 Regional Recap New York City has been the leader in job growth in the region. Areas adjacent to NYC have also seen fairly strong growth. Fairfield County (CT) and parts of northern NJ have lagged. The securities industry has typically driven the NYC economy, but not this time; tech has picked up some of the slack. Manufacturers are now quite upbeat about the economy, while service-sector firms are more subdued. Housing markets have been fairly robust in New York City and parts of upstate New York. 14

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