2012 Payne County Economic Outlook
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1 2012 Payne County Economic Outlook by Dan Rickman Regents Professor of Economics and Oklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis
2
3 20,000 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product: IHS Global Insight Forecast , ,000 14, , , ,000 6,000 4,000 2, %Change Real GDP (Bill. $2005)
4 Quarterly U.S. Real GDP Component Growth (% Annualized Growth Rates) :1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012: Gross Domestic Product Total Consumption Nonresidential Investment Residential Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government
5 Residential Investment State and Local Government 180 Average Average Current 100 Current Quarters from recession end Recession Trough= Quarters from recession end Source: Housing, Monetary Policy, and the Recovery, Feroli, Harris, Sufi and West (2012)
6 Jan Feb Feb. 2010
7 $/bbl $/mmbtu Energy Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) Q4 2013Q3 2013Q2 2013Q1 2012Q4 2012Q3 2012Q2 2012Q1 2011Q4 2011Q3 2011Q2 2011Q1 2010Q4 2010Q3 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 WTI Oil Price NG Price (HH)
8 percent Interest Rates (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) Mortgage (30 yr) Fed Funds Treasury (10 yr)
9 Caveats (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) expect the payroll tax cut extension to be carried through for all of 2012 risk of slowing of growth in China risk of rising gasoline prices (effect depends on whether it is demand or supply driven); a $10 per barrel supply-induced increase in oil prices is estimated to reduce GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points in year 1 and.5 percentage points in year 2 key recession risk remains the threat from the Eurozone European Central Bank's Long-Term Refinancing Operation has pumped liquidity into the system and has reduced the risks of a major banking crisis US recession risk reduced further to 25%, from 30% (began year at 40%)
10 State Employment Growth (Wage and Salary):
11 State Employment Growth (Wage and Salary):
12 State Wage and Salary Employment Growth (BEA) (%chg) (%chg) 1 Nevada North Dakota Arizona Alaska Wyoming South Dakota Utah Texas Idaho Louisiana Oklahoma Oklahoma Louisiana Idaho Illinois Michigan Massachusetts Florida Ohio Arizona Michigan Nevada -13.0
13 Explaining State Employment Growth Differences REGRESSIONS Natural Amenity Ranking Sig. positive (+3.7%) Sig. negative (-1.0%) Energy State 0 Sig. positive (+3.4%) Farm State Sig. positive (+4.9%) Sig. positive (+2.6%) Manufacturing State 0 Sig. negative (-2.8%) Construction Employment (%chg) NA Sig. negative [+0.7,-3.1] R-Squared Energy: AK, CO, LA, MT, ND, OK, TX, WV, WY Farm: IA, MT, NE, ND, SD Manufacturing: IL, IN, MI, OH, PA, WI
14 Quarterly U.S. and Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Growth 2003Q1-2013Q4: (Seasonally-Adjusted Annualized Percent Change) :1 2004:1 2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013: January (%Chg.) OK: 1.95% U.S.: 1.54% -8.0 U.S. Emp Oklahoma Emp
15 Area Population: 2010 %Growth ( ) United States 308,745, Metropolitan 258,317, Micropolitan 30,943, Rural (non-core) 19,484, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Distribution and Change 2000 to 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Economic Trends, June 2, 2011)
16 Percentage Change in Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Population: 2000 to 2010 Percentage change Metropolitan statistical area 19.4 or more 9.7 to to 9.6 Less than 0.0 Micropolitan statistical area 19.4 or more 9.7 to to 9.6 Less than 0.0 Source: U.S. Census Source: Census Bureau Population Distribution and Change 2000 to 2010
17 Rank Micropolitan Area 2010 Pop. %Chg. ( ) 1 The Villages, FL 93, Heber, UT 23, Fernley, NV 51, Gillette, WY 46, Cedar City, UT 46, Culpeper, VA 46, Pahrump, NV 43, Hilton Head Island-Beaufort, SC 187, Bozeman, MT 89, Statesville-Mooresville, NC 159, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL 182, Jackson, WY-ID 31, Rexburg, ID 50, Vernal, UT 32, Fort Leonard Wood, MO 52, Stillwater, OK 77, El Dorado, AR 41, Camden, AR 31, Wahpeton, ND-MN 22, St. Marys, PA 31, Garden City, KS 36, Bastrop, LA 27, Blytheville, AR 46, Tuskegee, AL 21, Greenwood, MS 42, Tallulah, LA 12, Indianola, MS 29, Clarksdale, MS 26, Cleveland, MS 34, Helena-West Helena, AR 21, Greenville, MS 51,
18 Rank Micropolitan Area 2010 Pop. %Chg. ( ) 58 Durant 42, Stillwater 77, Elk City 22, Tahlequah 46, Woodward 20, Ada 37, Shawnee 69, Weatherford 27, Enid 60, Ardmore 56, Duncan 45, McAlester 45, Bartlesville 50, Guymon 20, Muskogee 70, Ponca City 46, Miami 31, Altus 26, Rank Metropolitan Area 2010 Pop. %Chg. ( ) 114 Oklahoma City 1,252, Fort Smith 298, Tulsa 937, Lawton 124,
19 15.00 Payne County QCEW Employment Growth Total Employment Contract Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Education Services Hospitality
20 Payne County QCEW Employment Growth Finance & Insurance Business Srv Health, Soc. Assist. Other Srv Public Admin
21 Payne County Population 90,000 40,000 80,000 35,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 %Pop. Chg. 2011: : : ,000 25,000 20,000 40,000 15,000 30,000 10,000 Population BEA W&S Employment
22 Payne County Net-Migration: Source: IRS Statistics of Income -95 Payne County Tot Mig-Same St Payne County Tot Mig-Diff St -113 Payne County Tot Mig-Foreign Total: -227 Common Sources of In-migrants Common Destinations of Out-migrants Kay County Garfield County 69 Logan County Rogers County Pottawatomie County Noble County Creek County Cleveland County -33 Pawnee County Tulsa County Oklahoma County Washington -89 Wagoner
23 Annual Average Unemployment Rates (Percent) Payne Unemp U.S. Unemp.
24 Payne County Total Wages 350, , , , , , , %Chg. Wages & Salaries (thous.) -6.00
25 Stillwater City Sales Tax Collections 30,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, %Change Sales Tax Collections -4.00
26 Stillwater City Census Building Permits (Buildings) 2, , , , US Permits (thous.) Stillwater Permits 0
27 Thank you for your attention
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