OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TRADE IMPACTING GRAIN MARKETS
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2 OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TRADE IMPACTING GRAIN MARKETS SALEEM SHAIK, & FRAYNE OLSON, NDSU &????
3 OUTLINE General Economic Growth & Trade World regions and U.S. Importance of Agriculture Trade to grain markets (corn, soybeans and wheat) World regions, U.S., and ND and MN Importance of Trade to Cash Receipts Role of Farm Policy/Farm Bill for Trade? Research at NDSU
4 GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WORLD REGIONS AND U.S. Regions (7) Countries (196) East Asia & Pacific 31 Europe & Central Asia 55 Latin America & Caribbean 37 Middle East & North Africa 19 North America 3 South Asia 6 Sub-Saharan Africa 45
5 GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: TERMS AND DEFINITIONS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Value of the gross output (good & services) of producers and proxy for ECONOMIC GROWTH & Ability to Pay (ATP). Household Final Consumption Expenditure (% of GDP) Value of all goods and services purchased by households and proxy for Willingness to Spend (WTS). Trade (% of GDP) Trade is sum of exports and imports of goods and services and proxy for OPENNESS. Agriculture Value Added (% of GDP) Net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs.
6 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in current Trillion US$ (Ability to Pay) GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean North America Sub-Saharan Africa Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa South Asia GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IN TRILLION US$
7 Household final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) Willingness to Spend GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: HOUSEHOLD FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (% OF GDP) East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean North America Sub-Saharan Africa Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa South Asia
8 100 Trade includes Exports + Imports (% of GDP) Are Countries Open to Trade GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: TRADE (% OF GDP) East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean North America Sub-Saharan Africa Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa South Asia
9 Agriculture Value Added (% of GDP) Role of Agriculture East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean North America Sub-Saharan Africa Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa South Asia GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: AGRICULTURE VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP)
10 United States of America GDP, Consumption, Trade and Agriculture U.S. GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) GDP, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION TRADE AND AGRICULTURE Trade (% of GDP) GDP (current Trillion US$)
11 GENERAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED??? YES, there is ECONOMIC GROWTH & Ability to Pay in the Global Economy Yes, there is Willingness to Spend. Yes, there is OPENNESS to Trade. Yes, Agriculture is relatively small but is it important
12 IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE TRADE WORLD REGIONS AND U.S. CORN, SOYBEANS & WHEAT
13 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 Global and U.S. TOTAL Agricultural Exports and Imports (000 s US $) AGRICULTURE TRADE: 1,000,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Global Total Exports Global Total Imports United States Exports United States Imports GLOBAL & US TOTAL AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS
14 Global and U.S. CORN Agricultural Exports and Imports(000 s US $) 35,000,000 30,000,000 AGRICULTURE TRADE: 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 GLOBAL & US CORN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS Global Total Exports Global Total Imports United States Exports United States Imports
15 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Global and U.S. SOYBEAN Agricultural Exports and Import (000 s US $) 0 AGRICULTURE TRADE: GLOBAL & US SOYBEANS AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS Global Total Exports Global Total Imports United States Exports United States Imports
16 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Global and U.S. WHEAT Agricultural Exports and Import (000 s US $) AGRICULTURE TRADE: GLOBAL & US WHEAT AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS Global Total Exports Global Total Imports United States Exports United States Imports
17 IMPORTANCE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURE TRADE : WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED??? YES, there is global trade in agriculture commodities. However, the share of U.S. agriculture trade is less and there is room for growth. Similarly, there is potential for U.S. trade in corn, soybeans and wheat. But, need to identify and target potential markets.
18 IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE TRADE TO ND & MN
19 180,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 US, ND and MN TOTAL Agriculture Trade (000 s US $) Agricultural Total United States Agricultural Total Minnesota Agricultural Total North Dakota AGRICULTURE TRADE: US, ND & MN TOTAL AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS
20 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 US, ND and MN CORN Agriculture Trade (000 s US $) AGRICULTURE TRADE: US, ND & MN CORN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS Corn United States Corn Minnesota Corn North Dakota
21 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 US, ND and MN SOYBEAN Agriculture Trade (000 s US $) AGRICULTURE TRADE: US, ND & MN SOYBEAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS Soybeans United States Soybeans Minnesota Soybeans North Dakota
22 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 US, ND and MN WHEAT Agriculture Trade (000 s US $) AGRICULTURE TRADE: US, ND & MN WHEAT AGRICULTURE EXPORTS & IMPORTS Wheat United States Wheat Minnesota Wheat North Dakota
23 IMPORTANCE OF ND & MN AGRICULTURE TRADE : WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED??? Even within U.S., ND and MN has the potential to identify and target global trade markets in agriculture commodities. Share of ND and MN agriculture trade is less and there is room for growth. But, need to identify and target potential markets.
24 HOW IMPORTANT IS TRADE RELATIVE TO FARM CASH RECEIPTS?
25 $10,000,000 $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 FIGURE 2. SOURCES OF NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURE CASH RECEIPTS $1,000,000 $ CropLvst Crops Lvst
26 1,400,000 1,800,000,000 FIGURE 2. HOW IMPORTANT IS FARM POLICY PROGRAMS TO NORTH DAKOTA? 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , ,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 0 Farm Program Payments Indemnity
27 North Dakota Exports (%) relative to Total, Crop and Livestock Cash Receipts, 2000 to % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 46% 48% 47% 45% 49% 49% 48% 38% 39% 39% 38% 39% 39% 40% 14% 13% 14% 13% 7% 48% 8% 10% 11% 55% 57% 52% 44% 40% 50% 51% 51% 51% 55% 57% 47% 46% 16% 16% 18% 18% 18% 18% Percent agricultural exports Percent animal products Percent plant products FIGURE 3. HOW IMPORTANT IS AGRICULTURE EXPORTS TO NORTH DAKOTA
28 North Dakota Exports (%) by Commodity, 2000 to 2013 FIGURE 4. SOURCES OF NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURE EXPORTS BY COMMODITY % 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Corn Soybean meal Feeds and fodder Soybeans Wheat
29 ROLE FOR FARM POLICY/FARM BILLS IN TRADE
30 FARM POLICY/ FARM BILLS TRADE? Farm policy in U.S. started as part of the New Deal legislation by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in Since 1933, 15 major (omnibus) farm bills were introduced.
31 FARM POLICY AND 15 FARM BILLS FB 1 ( ) Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 (P.L ) FB 2 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1949 (P.L ) FB 3 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1954 (P.L ) FB 4 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1956 (P.L ) FB 5 ( ) Food and Agricultural Act of 1965 (P.L ) FB 6 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1970 (P.L ) FB 7 ( ) Agriculture and Consumer Protection Act of 1973 (P.L ) FB 8 ( ) Food and Agriculture Act of 1977 (P.L ) FB 9 ( ) Agriculture and Food Act of 1981 (P.L ) FB 10 ( ) Food Security Act of 1985 (P.L ) FB 11 ( ) Federal Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of 1990 (P.L ) FB 12 ( ) Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (P.L ) FB 13 ( ) Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (P. L ) FB 14 ( ) Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (P. L ) FB 15 ( ) Agricultural Act of 2014 (P. L )
32 FARM POLICY AND 15 FARM BILLS FB 1 ( ) Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 (P.L ) FB 2 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1949 (P.L ) FB 3 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1954 (P.L ) FB 4 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1956 (P.L ) FB 5 ( ) Food and Agricultural Act of 1965 (P.L ) FB 6 ( ) Agricultural Act of 1970 (P.L ) FB 7 ( ) Agriculture and Consumer Protection Act of 1973 (P.L ) FB 8 ( ) Food and Agriculture Act of 1977 (P.L ) FB 9 ( ) Agriculture and Food Act of 1981 (P.L ) FB 10 ( ) Food Security Act of 1985 (P.L ) FB 11 ( ) Food, Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of 1990 (P.L ) FB 12 ( ) Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (P.L ) FB 13 ( ) Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (P. L ) FB 14 ( ) Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (P. L ) FB 15 ( ) Agricultural Act of 2014 (P. L )
33 FARM POLICY AND TITLES OF FARM BILL Title I, Commodity Programs Title II, Conservation Title III, Trade Title IV, Nutrition Title V, Credit Title VI, Rural Development Title VII, Research, Extension, and Related Matters Title VIII, Forestry Title IX, Energy Title X, Horticulture Title XI, Crop Insurance Title XII, Miscellaneous
34 CBO OUTLAYS, 2014 TO 2023 BY FARM BILL TITLES Title I - Commodities 6,382 2,540 4,802 5,004 4,828 4,256 4,116 4,224 4,082 4,225 Title II - Conservation 5,430 5,590 5,654 5,677 5,814 5,817 6,098 5,817 5,762 5,941 Title III - Trade Title IV - Nutrition 79,937 78,779 78,670 77,376 75,888 74,618 73,614 72,871 72,417 72,262 Title V - Credit Title VI - Rural Development Title VII - Research, Extension, and Related Matters Title VIII - Forestry Title IX - Energy Title X - Horticulture Title XI - Crop Insurance 6,382 8,399 8,742 8,834 9,063 9,279 9,552 9,714 9,873 9,988 Title XII - Miscellaneous
35 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 Title V - Credit Title VIII - Forestry Title VI - Rural Development Title IX - Energy Title VII - Research, Extension, Others Title X - Horticulture Title III - Trade Title I - Commodities Title II - Conservation Title XI - Crop Insurance
36 TRADE FACTORS TO THINK ABOUT IN THE FUTURE GMO risk Trade agreements (NAFTA, CAFTA, TPP, T-TIPS) Import tariffs Exchange rate Sanitary and phytosanitary Transportation cost and distance Export promotion Farm bill vs commodity check-off.
37 RESEARCH AT NDSU: 1)TPP AND GMO RISK 2) DID PAST AGREEMENTS HELP? 3) DEMAND FOR EXPORTS?
38 STRINGENT GMO REGULATIONS: TRADE BARRIERS BETWEEN U.S. & TPP COUNTRIES 7 US_Australia 4 US_Canada GMO_index 8 US_Chile 8 US_Japan US_Malaysia US_Mexico US_New Zealand US_Peru US_Singapore US_Vietnam
39 STRINGENT GMO REGULATIONS: TRADE BETWEEN U.S. & TPP COUNTRIES Losses due to GMO regulations on Trade Less in Cotton Intermediate in Oilseeds High in Corn
40 Australia Canada Chile Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Peru Singapore Cotton & products GMO_index_ ,501-1, ,472-12, ,889-3,017-36, GMO_index_6-1, ,496-4, ,438-36, ,179-8, ,505-2,005 GMO_index_ , ,304-3,110-54, , Corn and products GMO_index_3-2,600, ,546,116-71,560,752-5,343,971,202-55,076, ,266,156-3,561, ,647, ,927 GMO_index_6-6,191,231-1,056,089, ,387,181-12,724,072, ,137,148-1,779,251,468-8,480, ,739,867-1,552,246 GMO_index_7-1,417, ,837,091-39,017,463-2,913,722,841-30,029, ,436,040-1,942,084-63,600, ,453 Oilseeds and products GMO_index_3 3,164 51, ,891 19, , ,403 1,151 GMO_index_6-34, ,000-1,524-3,438, ,862-2,816,307-1,397-15,221-12,486 GMO_index_7 4,753 78, ,038 28, , ,107 1,729
41 THERE ARE WINNERS AND LOSERS WITH TRADE
42 I ENJOY WHAT I DO Thank you for listening and Questions.
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