FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005
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1 FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL SUGAR Amani Elobeid (515) FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (515)
2 Real GDP Growth Rate of Major Exporters Percent Australia Brazil EU-15 Thailand
3 Real GDP Growth Rate of Major Importers Percent China India Japan Russia
4 Average Exchange Rate Growth for Major Exporters Percent Australia Brazil European Union Thailand
5 Average Exchange Rate Growth for Major Importers Percent China India Japan Russia
6 International Sugar World Major exporters Major importers Country coverage
7 World Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Area Harvested Million Hectares / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Sugar Beet Sugar Cane
8 World Sugar Production, Consumption and Net Trade Million MT Million MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
9 World Sugar FOB Caribbean Price Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
10 Major Sugar Exporters Thousand MT 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Brazil Australia Thailand European Union Guatemala South Africa
11 Major Sugar Importers Thousand MT 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Russia and Ukraine Indonesia Japan Canada United States South Korea
12 International Sugar Major Exporters Brazil: Continued expansion Reduced production in Thailand Recovery in Australia Sugar for Ethanol (Brazil, Australia, Thailand)
13 Brazilian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
14 Brazilian Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
15 Brazilian Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand MT 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports
16 Thai Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
17 Thai Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
18 Thai Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Thousand MT 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports
19 Australian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
20 Australian Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
21 Australian Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT Thousand MT 7, 5, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports
22 International Sugar EU-25 Implementation of new sugar reforms will change the picture in the EU A 36% cut in the institutional white sugar price over 4 years from 26 Reduction in the minimum beet price by 39.5% A and B quotas merged into one production quota Additional 1.1 million tons of C sugar against oneoff payment Voluntary restructuring buy-up scheme
23 EU-25 Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15
24 EU-25 Yield MT per Hectare /5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15
25 EU-25 Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 25, 2, 15, Thousand MT 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, 5, 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15 Production Consumption Net Exports 1,5 1, 5
26 World Sugar FOB Caribbean Price Dollars per MT / /99 22/3 26/7 21/11 214/15 With EU Reform Without EU Reform
27 EU-25 Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 25, 2, 15, Thousand MT 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15 Production Consumption Net Exports -1, -2, -3, -4,
28 International Sugar Major Importers Russia and the Ukraine continue to be major importers Recovery in China and India Japanese imports continue to decline
29 Russian and Ukrainian Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
30 Russian and Ukrainian Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
31 Russian and Ukrainian Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 12, Thousand MT 6, 1, 5, 8, 4, 6, 3, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
32 Indonesian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
33 Indonesian Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
34 Indonesian Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 5, Thousand MT 2,5 4, 2, 3, 1,5 2, 1, 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
35 Japanese Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Area Beet Area
36 Japanese Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Yield Beet Yield
37 Japanese Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 3, Thousand MT 1,75 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,5 1,25 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
38 Chinese Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Area Beet Area
39 Chinese Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Yield Beet Yield
40 Chinese Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 5, 3, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
41 Indian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
42 Indian Yield MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
43 Indian Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
44 THANK YOU
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